RealGM Analysis
When considering the summer of 2010, mainly concerning LeBron James, I have never attempted to make it too complicated.
There are arguments to be made for LeBron to remain in Cleveland, while there can be salient points to be made for him to also go to New York, Miami or Chicago.
Oddly, the Knicks are in a similar situation as the Cavaliers were when they won the 2003 lottery. New York hasn't made the playoffs for five seasons and have a winning percentage of .351 over that span. Cleveland missed the playoffs from the 98-99 season through 02-03 and had a winning percentage of .344. The Cavs subsequently missed the playoffs in LeBron's first two seasons.
There are zero indications that LeBron's decision has been made and similar to what Dwyane Wade recently said about his own circumstance, where he plays in 2010 will ultimately come down to where he has the best chance of winning.
Until the 09-10 season is over and we finally hit July, the rest of it will mostly be noise, no matter how closely we all look for hints and indicators.
But in response to Louis Roxin's article outlining The Top 10 Reasons LeBron Could Choose New York, here are the Top 10 Reasons LeBron Could Remain In Cleveland.
10. Cash. Whether or not LeBron would actually make more money in New York on a marketing level is debatable. He will become a villain in more areas of the country than just Ohio if he goes to New York and if he doesn't win there, then the losses will be even more magnified -- just ask Alex Rodriguez.
What is not debatable, however, is the Cavaliers will offer him more guaranteed money. If LeBron signs a free-agent contract with Cleveland, the difference is only $4.14M over five years, but if he takes his player option for 2010 and signs an extension, the difference would be $7.64M over the same five seasons. Additionally, LeBron would get the extra sixth season from Cleveland, which would be $26.15M for the 2015-16 season. The total value of the extension would be $129.9M.
LeBron could have microfracture surgery performed on both knees tomorrow, Tommy John surgery on his right elbow, become a free agent next summer and still receive max contract offers from any team with salary cap space, so security isn't something that is terribly important at this point in his career. But an additional season worth $26.15M for when he is 30 is nothing for even him to scoff at lightly.
9. Talent. When looking at the Cavs' roster, it is difficult to separate individual talent from the impact made by LeBron playing with that talent. There isn't a team in the NBA that LeBron could go to that wouldn't make the playoffs and win at least 50 games. He is very clearly that good.
The Cavs, meanwhile, would certainly not become the 93-94 Bulls that won 55 games and swept a playoff series against Cleveland without Michael Jordan if LeBron joined the Browns for the 2009 NFL season.
But Danny Ferry found a formula heading into the 08-09 season where he could combine a collection of marginally above average players into a team that fully complements LeBron's best attributes.
Mo Williams, Delonte West and Anderson Varejao are far from stars on their own, but what they do well meshes in a LeBron system and are the kind of pieces that are more difficult to reproduce than one might imagine.
J.J. Hickson is a high-ceiling, classic power forward, while Jamario Moon could develop into a poor man's Trevor Ariza.
Cleveland is also a well-built defensive team that addressed the weaknesses exposed by Orlando in the Eastern Conference Finals. Despite dodging tougher defensive assignments in said playoffs, LeBron has fully embraced the importance defense plays in championships and Mike D'Antoni isn't exactly known for being that kind of coach.
8. Attracting Free Agents. Cleveland conceivably could have created enough room to attract a second max free agent during the summer of 2010, but that would have come at the risk of not improving the wings for the coming season with Anthony Parker and Jamario Moon, who each did sign contracts for two-years guaranteed (Leon Powe's second-year is the non-guaranteed one).
When LeBron is inked to another long-term deal with the Cavaliers, free agents will match his level of commitment for a chance of playing with the best player in the NBA.
This segues seamlessly into reason number seven.
7. 2011. With their current salary obligations, the Cavaliers will have cap room in the summer of 2011 to sign a second max free agent, assuming they don't enact reason number six.
Carmelo Anthony, Yao Ming, Pau Gasol, Tony Parker, Caron Butler and David West will potentially be available that summer and any of those players could finally give LeBron another legitimate, in-his-prime second star.
6. Shaq/Ilgauskas. Unless there is a significant injury, it is difficult to imagine both centers remaining with Cleveland for the entire season. They could use one of those two expiring contracts to get on the receiving end of a big contract like Tayshaun Prince, Antawn Jamison or Michael Redd, any of which would improve the Cavs chances from how they are currently constructed.
Redd would probably make the most sense, given his abilities as a pure perimeter scorer. He fits the 2011 cap space plan and a deal that sends Zydrunas Ilgauskas and Daniel Gibson to Milwaukee would save the Bucks $6M.
5. Debt to Ohio. LeBron is savvy enough to realize having a great narrative to attach to a legendary on court career is a crucial important of creating a transcendent legacy. Cleveland hasn't won a championship in forever and if the local kid brings multiple titles to the area, then that will make him the kind of folk hero that he couldn't become as just another parachute superstar for New York.
4. Mike Brown. There were rumors that Cleveland would fire Mike Brown this summer, but management has kept that bullet in the chamber. If the Cavs don't win the 2010 championship, either LeBron or Brown won't be in Cleveland by the middle of July. LeBron will effectively be asked to name the head coach of his choosing.
3. Salary Cap. With the salary cap potentially going down, the Knicks will are unlikely to have enough cap space to sign both LeBron and a second max free agent. The Knicks need to unload Jared Jeffries' contract and would need to use Cuttino Mobley's insured deal to get something done, but there are very few teams where a trade would make sense.
Unless there are several surprising breakthroughs by the current members of the Knicks, it is difficult to believe LeBron's chances of winning a championship immediately increase by going there, especially since they have excused themselves from their first round pick in 2010.
The best situation for LeBron to choose a championship team could be Miami, where he can join Dwyane Wade and Michael Beasley, but I don't see LeBron enjoying the A-Rod role to Wade's Jeter. Unlike Shaq, LeBron also doesn't seem to be too concerned with warm weather or living somewhere without state income tax.
Chicago could also be in play for LeBron and they have a young core (mainly Derrick Rose) superior to what is currently in New York and Cleveland, but playing in a city where he will be breathlessly compared to Jordan flies in the face of creating his own narrative.
2. Luxury Tax. The Cavaliers don't have the unlimited coffers of the Knicks or Mavs, but they have been as willing to pay the luxury tax as any other club in the NBA. Ownership hasn't even been as thrifty as the bigger market Bulls or Warriors. The value of the franchise goes up or down almost exclusively because of LeBron being on the roster and spending a little more now is an investment in the future that even goes beyond winning.
1. The Power of Inertia. LeBron has already signed an extension with the Cavs before, back in 2006. If he was adamant about leaving Cleveland for a bigger market, he could have left in 2008 as an unrestricted free agent.
The decision that LeBron, Wade and Bosh made to take a shorter extension was more about controlling their future and the direction of the roster more than it was about money or security. Those three teams took aggressive strategies this summer to increase the odds of retaining their superstars.
Cleveland and Toronto made multiple moves to win immediately, while the Heat preserved their 2010 cap space in order to offer a second max contract next summer.
Despite having an undeniably palpable infatuation with New York, LeBron also seems inextricably tied to his roots and has been intensely loyal to the people he grew up with. He employs his high school buddies and had 'loyalty' tattooed across his chest, not the Big Apple.
From his track record to date, LeBron?s love of the limelight seems like it may be more of a passing flirtation than a strong impetus for him to make a major life change.
