Better Draft Prospect: Rubio or Rose?

[Mr. Perfect]

Derrick Rose was the best PG prospect of this year's class and Rubio is expected to be the best PG prospect in his class (unless he falls off the map and Brandon Jennings explodes). Who is heralded as the better prospect of the two though? Derrick Rose had a decent year in college and a nice tournament run, Rubio has been doing well for himself against much stronger competition in Europe and we should get to see him a little playing for Spain this summer.

Both are the most hyped PG prospects since Chris Paul. Rose is an athletic freak while Rubio has unprecedented court-vision and basketball IQ for someone his age. Ultimately, who would you rather have?

Derrick Rose:
NBADraft.net Profile
DraftExpress Profile

Ricky Rubio:
NBADraft.net Profile
DraftExpress Profile

[i<3basketball]

Rose - I'll take a semi-proven American 100 times out of 100 over a european player, but that's just me.

[TheGreatBlaze]

Hard to say, athough Rubio is being compared to Magic Johnson now.

http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/blog/ball_d ... =nba,95979

[DaGoodz]

I don't even think Rubio is the best PG prospect in his class,
I would take Jennings over him.

[Teen Girl Squad]

Wow little xenophobia going on here. Ricky is absolutely amazing and he's only 17. He's already the next Jason Kidd and he's playing professionally. He may never be as athletic as Rose but he is already a better player IMO and still has time to grow.

[Airness_ACB]

Ricky Rubio not the best PG of his class? Got to agree... he's just the best player of his class, and it's not even close. How can some people be such a haters?

If Ricky Rubio stepped today into the NBA he'd compete each night for the "smartest guy on the court" award. Not joke, his smartness is absolutely off the charts. It's not just that you won't find a better basketball IQ in a 17 y.o. guy... The thing is that you won't find many veterans as smart as Ricky is, which is pretty amazing.

Rose will be a very good player, absolutely capable of making a couple of All Stars IMO. But Ricky is a franchise PG. Once in a decade.

[ponder276]

There are certainly a lot of things to like about Rubio (passing, slashing, great ball thief, etc.), but there are also things to hate (poor shooter, not very athletic, zero elevation on his jumper, gambles too much on d, recent track record of hyped Euros, etc.). According to Draft Express, in 34 ACB games in 07/08 Rubio shot 37.5% from the field and 29.4% from 3, which is obviously terrible, and makes me think that his lack of athleticism means he's having trouble creating high percentage shots, which should be an even bigger problem against more athletic NBA defenders. Then again, he's only 17 and is playing in a men's league.

Overall I'd definitely take Rose. Physically Rose is far superior - much stronger and WAY more athletic. His slashing skills are much better than Rubio's, he has better form and better elevation on his jumper, and he's a better defender when he puts in the effort. He's still very raw, and I don't expect him to have a good rookie season, but by his 3rd season he should be a very, very good player

[ponder276]

Ricky Rubio not the best PG of his class? Got to agree... he's just the best player of his class, and it's not even close. How can some people be such a haters?

If Ricky Rubio stepped today into the NBA he'd compete each night for the "smartest guy on the court" award. Not joke, his smartness is absolutely off the charts. It's not just that you won't find a better basketball IQ in a 17 y.o. guy... The thing is that you won't find many veterans as smart as Ricky is, which is pretty amazing.

Rose will be a very good player, absolutely capable of making a couple of All Stars IMO. But Ricky is a franchise PG. Once in a decade.

Once in a decade? Are you serious?

Best PG's drafted in the 1990s:
Gary Payton, Steve Nash, Jason Kidd, Baron Davis, Chauncey Billups, Allen Iverson, etc.

And in the 2000s (not even done yet, we'll have to wait a good 10 years before we can assess everyone's careers) we're already getting guys like Chris Paul, Deron Williams, Gilbert Arenas, Tony Parker, etc. I don't think you realize how good he'd have to be to be a "once in a decade" type of player.

[Airness_ACB]

Once in a decade? Are you serious?

Best PG's drafted in the 1990s:
Gary Payton, Steve Nash, Jason Kidd, Baron Davis, Chauncey Billups, Allen Iverson, etc.

And in the 2000s (not even done yet, we'll have to wait a good 10 years before we can assess everyone's careers) we're already getting guys like Chris Paul, Deron Williams, Gilbert Arenas, Tony Parker, etc. I don't think you realize how good he'd have to be to be a "once in a decade" type of player.

I'm serious, can't remember a so good 17 y.o. PG, and I'm quite sure you also can't. His combination of skillset, physical tools and smartness at such a young age makes him a talent comparable to names like LeBron or Kobe when they were Highschoolers. Yes, I mean an abuser. I think he'll surpass both Deron and Chris Paul, which IMO will make him the top PG in this generation (and be the best PG of a generation is almost equal to an once in a decade talent). Tony Parker? You joking, right? In a couple of years Parker won't even be good enough to clean Rubio's shoes.

Then, you talk about Payton, Nash, Kidd... well, IMO Rubio will be that good (Iverson's not a PG, and Davis and Billups are no way at the same level than the other three guys).

I repeat, we're talking about a once in a decade talent at the PG spot. And I'm serious. I've seen many young players, and I still remember the best generation that spanish basketball has ever produced with Navarro, Gasol and Calderon, and none of them can be compared to Rubio. At age 17 Rubio would abuse all of them. He's a big time talent.

[ponder276]

Once in a decade? Are you serious?

Best PG's drafted in the 1990s:
Gary Payton, Steve Nash, Jason Kidd, Baron Davis, Chauncey Billups, Allen Iverson, etc.

And in the 2000s (not even done yet, we'll have to wait a good 10 years before we can assess everyone's careers) we're already getting guys like Chris Paul, Deron Williams, Gilbert Arenas, Tony Parker, etc. I don't think you realize how good he'd have to be to be a "once in a decade" type of player.

I'm serious, can't remember a so good 17 y.o. PG, and I'm quite sure you also can't. His combination of skillset, physical tools and smartness at such a young age makes him a talent comparable to names like LeBron or Kobe when they were Highschoolers. Yes, I mean an abuser. I think he'll surpass both Deron and Chris Paul, which IMO will make him the top PG in this generation (and be the best PG of a generation is almost equal to an once in a decade talent). Tony Parker? You joking, right? In a couple of years Parker won't even be good enough to clean Rubio's shoes.

Then, you talk about Payton, Nash, Kidd... well, IMO Rubio will be that good (Iverson's not a PG, and Davis and Billups are no way at the same level than the other three guys).

I repeat, we're talking about a once in a decade talent at the PG spot. And I'm serious. I've seen many young players, and I still remember the best generation that spanish basketball has ever produced with Navarro, Gasol and Calderon, and none of them can be compared to Rubio. At age 17 Rubio would abuse all of them. He's a big time talent.

Rubio will be as good as Payton, Nash and Kidd, and will be better than guys like Paul, Deron, Chauncey and Baron? Parker won't be good enough to clean Rubio's shoes in a couple of years? Rubio a comparable talent to LeBron when he was in high school?

I was going to tear you apart for this post, but I think it'll be more fun to step back and watch other people do it for me.

[J~Rush]

I agree with Airness.

[Airness_ACB]

Rubio will be as good as Payton, Nash and Kidd, and will be better than guys like Paul, Deron, Chauncey and Baron? Parker won't be good enough to clean Rubio's shoes in a couple of years? Rubio a comparable talent to LeBron when he was in high school?

I was going to tear you apart for this post, but I think it'll be more fun to step back and watch other people do it for me.

How many 17 y.o. players do you remember having impressive games against the Olympic Champs?
How many 17 y.o. players have competed for being considered the top player at his spot in a such a tough league as the ACB?
How many 17 y.o. players do you remember leading the ACB and the Euroleague in steals in limited PT?
How many players do you remember putting a 51-24-12-7 in a final against the top guys of his generation?

Yesterday, he simply outplayed Argentina, and even without Manu they're a very good team. If Rubio was playing in the NCAA he'd be an abuser since day one, and clearly the top PG. Maybe, if he was abusing raw and unmature NCAA PG's instead of outplaying the Olympic Champs he would get more consideration...

I must say that some people overrates some european talents, but now you are seriously underrating Rubio's potential. Have you really seen him play in at least a dozen of games? I've seen him play regularly for the last three years, and I can say you that he's the most impressive 17 y.o. talent I can remember aside from LeBron. He's simply miles away from any other 17 y.o. players.

[ponder276]

Rubio will be as good as Payton, Nash and Kidd, and will be better than guys like Paul, Deron, Chauncey and Baron? Parker won't be good enough to clean Rubio's shoes in a couple of years? Rubio a comparable talent to LeBron when he was in high school?

I was going to tear you apart for this post, but I think it'll be more fun to step back and watch other people do it for me.

How many 17 y.o. players do you remember having impressive games against the Olympic Champs?
How many 17 y.o. players have competed for being considered the top player at his spot in a such a tough league as the ACB?
How many 17 y.o. players do you remember leading the ACB and the Euroleague in steals in limited PT?
How many players do you remember putting a 51-24-12-7 in a final against the top guys of his generation?

Yesterday, he simply outplayed Argentina, and even without Manu they're a very good team. If Rubio was playing in the NCAA he'd be an abuser since day one, and clearly the top PG. Maybe, if he was abusing raw and unmature NCAA PG's instead of outplaying the Olympic Champs he would get more consideration...

I must say that some people overrates some european talents, but now you are seriously underrating Rubio's potential. Have you really seen him play in at least a dozen of games? I've seen him play regularly for the last three years, and I can say you that he's the most impressive 17 y.o. talent I can remember aside from LeBron. He's simply miles away from any other 17 y.o. players.

11 points and 1 assist in a completely meaningless game against Argentina? Wow, I'm blown away . . .

Rubio is playing very well for a 17 year old. He is in a unique situation - most top prospects are American, so we don't get to see how they would do in a league like the ACB. My guess is that a ton of top American propects would do quite well in the ACB, but we just never get a chance to see them there (it will be interesting to see how Jennings, a good but not great prospect, does in Europe next year). You talk about Rubio like he's dominating the ACB, but he really isn't. Here are his stats from 2007/2008 in the ACB:

34 games, 23.0 mpg, 10.5 ppg (shooting a horrible 37.5/29.4/80.0), 4.0 apg, 3.2 rpg, 2.2 spg, 2.1 to, 2.6 pf

Far from dominant. Now, you can say that he's playing somewhat limited minutes, in a league where stats are generally less impressive (shorter games, more team oriented), but even if you stack him up against his competition, and look at stats that adjust for playing time, he still isn't dominating anyone:
- 25th in the league in terms of PER
- 17th in the league in terms of pace-adjusted assists-per-40mins (also 17th in straight up APG)
- 42nd in the league in terms of pace-adjusted points-per-40mins (47th in straight up PPG)

You say things like:

Then, you talk about Payton, Nash, Kidd... well, IMO Rubio will be that good

Which is a pretty ridiculous thing to say about any prospect - all 3 of these guys are arguably top 10 PGs of all time. And how about:

I think he'll surpass both Deron and Chris Paul

Chris Paul just put up what was quite possibly the best statistical regular season by a PG EVER (in terms of PER, win shares, etc.). To say that any prospect is likely to surpass him is pretty crazy, especially a prospect with as many glaring holes in his game as Ricky Rubio. His main claim to fame is putting up insane stats in that U-16 euro championship (though he was nothing special a year later in the U-18s), and playing decent but hardly dominant basketball as a 17 year old in the ACB. Chris Paul absolutely dominated the NBA as a 22 year old, I think I'll take him over Rubio . . .

[NO-KG-AI]

Chris Paul is going to have Rubio for lunch when he comes to the states, ditto for Deron.

Jason Kidd was better at the same age IMO, basically what rubio is except with elite speed and excellent strength and athleticism.

[Indy07]

In America, we cannot judge him strictly by his stats. Yes you can do some statistical interpretation of his FG% and his PER and so on and so forth but impact is measured beyond statistics. I will take Airness's analysis on his skills but his analysis/predictions on his future are beyond bold. They are simply ludicrous. Out of the past 10 drafts, what player could you honestly give a stonecold guarantee that they would be the best at their position? I honestly can only think of LeBron. Every other player had question marks, some which cannot be solved (athleticism, height, other uncontrollable physical attributes). Rubio obviously has his deficiencies so airness needs to put that into perspective before posting such crazy predictions. He is young, he hasn't finished growing and its a bit too early to make any concrete judgments on the kid, especially for us in the US. Regardless, I'm taking Rose and I'm not looking back