Bears 2024: 5.0 It's Caleb Williams time

[biggestbullsfan]

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Get off seems a little slow at times but looks like he plays the run decently and has a few potential sacks if he made the right play. Just missed the QB but he got back there a bunch

[JockItch43]

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Hard to take seriously anyone who thinks a punter might be your best pick in decades.

Are we ruling out sarcasm? IDK know about that comment.

Don't also rule out that Fishbain may be related to Taylor.

[fleet]

Booker’s Scouting Report

STRENGTHS

Has impressive length and could build out a power arsenal with more mass.

Explosive, twitched-up long strider who can sequentially off-set blockers and pursue.

Shows off exciting ankle flexion and bend and can pinch the corner at sharp angles.

Has surprising pass-rush nuance for his experience level and has a solid arsenal.

Has shown he can sequence pass-rush moves in rapid succession and keep synergy.

When he’s able to properly align his base, power capacity can overwhelm blockers.

Possesses the twitch and agility to levy sudden spin moves after baiting OTs upfield.

Actively uses his stride freedom to throttle up to the apex and supplement swipes.

Can flash his hands to bait OTs into extending, then explode into devastating long-arms.

Knows how to displace OTs with initial rushing angles and capitalize with counters.

Motor never fades out, which allows him to generate second- and third-effort pressure.

Plays with great energy in run defense and can use his agility to keep himself clean.

Has flashed the ability to stack and shed blockers with his length and explosive output.

Shows glimpses of impressive processing, discipline, and recovery on option plays.

Length, explosiveness, and motor amount to impressive playmaking range in pursuit.

WEAKNESSES

Explosiveness and speed, while exceptional, may be a notch below the elite mark.

Is very light for an edge defender and needs more bulk to reach NFL-level strength.

Middling mass and play strength can make him easier to control and displace.

Doesn’t have the strength to break opposing anchors when initial power rushes fail.

Sometimes diverts too far upright when stunting across gaps, exposing his frame.

Can be uncontrolled with base alignment and pad level when levying lateral counters.

High-cut frame occasionally yields slight hip stiffness and delays in direction changes.

Despite age-relative rush proficiency, can still work on expanding his pass-rush arsenal.

Visibly lacks the hand strength to routinely finish moves and nullify opposing extensions.

Can be more consistent at employing counters with rapid reaction after initial moves.

Too often experiences delays in his pass-rush counter work when he needs to adapt.

High-cut frame doesn’t always translate well when tasked with coverage of the flats

[fleet]

Hard to take seriously anyone who thinks a punter might be your best pick in decades.

Are we ruling out sarcasm? IDK know about that comment.

Don't also rule out that Fishbain may be related to Taylor.

Yeah, something. I think he likes the pick and was trying to be funny.

The only player the Bears drafted that wasn’t a top 30 visit guy. When it comes to position players next year, if the prospect didn’t visit on the 30, and does not have impressive length and physical traits, if we’re discussing them we are wasting our time on a smokescreen. See Byron Murphy.

[BeatDaCavs420]

Reading the last few pages and seeing people being up in arms about us drafting a punter is funny lol

[fleet]

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Project for sure. Needs a lot more long arm power. Reminds me a little of that Carter guy from Army last year. He looks like he’s going to get engulfed by NFL behemoths (in year 1).

[NecessaryEvil]

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This kid plays angry as ****. Wait until he puts on some mass and gains some experience

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[dice]

That's pretty much the value of a 5th this year- a 4th next year. So he got equal value, and just accelerated the process by a year. What's to complain about?

nonsensical statement. total fallacy. there is no "time value of draft pick" like there is a time value of money. GMs do that **** when their jobs are on the line. THAT's when this year's pick becomes more valuable

GMs tend to value present picks more than future picks because it benefits them personally, not because it benefits the team overall. they are looking for their next contract in a job with a short shelf life

poles has no sense of value and the way he's going he will waste caleb's long-term potential to win super bowls. he's ryan pace redux except he was correct to tear it down when he came in and he thus lucked into caleb. whereas pace's fate was ultimately tied to trubisky

Kind of a harsh take, even for you dice. Poles has been one of the best GMs in the league since he took over. He and his staff are being methodical. If Taylor gives us an all pro punter for a decade that helps the defense by pinning the opponent inside the 20 consistently then we have a winning pick.

he WILL be a terrific punter. who probably won't be punting much. you don't use a 4th rounder on that! people were saying the exact same thing about sauerbrun, btw. he was disappointing here for 5 seasons, somehow adding 3 yards to his avg. after he left and becoming an all pro

poles's next contract extension will be due to a stupifying series of events:

1) he inexplicably holds onto roquan until midway through the season
2) during that time, roquan plays a major role in the bears beating...the texans! putting them in the driver's seat for the #1 pick
3) lovie and a miracle finish in week 17 gifts the #1 pick to the bears
4) poles bets on justin rather than taking stroud, figuring that he can reasonably pivot to a mccarthy/penix type in the next draft...and maybe get really lucky
5) another miracle happens. but this miracle left him with no real follow-up decisions

i was one of the only people defending poles when things were in the toilet last season. despite the obviously bad claypool trade, which further threatened to cost us the #1 pick in 2023 (if he happened to play a major role in another win). but the shortsighted sweat trade made it clear that he had no idea what he was doing when it comes to building a sustainable contender. and he has kept right on doing it

[NesimLE]

nonsensical statement. total fallacy. there is no "time value of draft pick" like there is a time value of money. GMs do that **** when their jobs are on the line. THAT's when this year's pick becomes more valuable

GMs tend to value present picks more than future picks because it benefits them personally, not because it benefits the team overall

That's only relevant in a vacuum though. If the guy who you're trading up for has a high enough grade, it can be worth the value.
As an absurd, obviously impossible example, if we traded a future 4th for the pick to draft Malik Nabers in the 5th round this year, you do that every time.

if a guy you think is a 3rd round value falls to the 5th, it makes it seem like a good decision, right? but poles would've taken such a guy in the 4th!

and know what's gonna happen next year? there will be a guy w/ a 2nd or 3rd round grade at a position the bears are looking at who falls to the 4th. but the pick won't be there. so is poles then gonna trade a 2026 3rd rounder?

Trading future capital could be plausible, you'd have to again consult the board, the roster, and what the next class looks like. The higher the value of the pick you're trading, the less likely it is that you're getting more value (or even equal value) than you could get by staying put and drafting there in the future. This year's 2nd was stacked, and we missed that opportunity, which is obviously not great lol. So yeah, the circumstances to move a future 2nd or 3rd are a lot tougher to find than the ones to move a future 4th or 5th. As an individual I don't know where that line is, but hopefully the organization has it mapped out more rigorously than gut feel or present bias. Because as you note, guys fall every year, and you need a systematic approach to put you in the best opportunity to capitalize when it happens.

[dice]

That's only relevant in a vacuum though. If the guy who you're trading up for has a high enough grade, it can be worth the value.
As an absurd, obviously impossible example, if we traded a future 4th for the pick to draft Malik Nabers in the 5th round this year, you do that every time.

if a guy you think is a 3rd round value falls to the 5th, it makes it seem like a good decision, right? but poles would've taken such a guy in the 4th!

and know what's gonna happen next year? there will be a guy w/ a 2nd or 3rd round grade at a position the bears are looking at who falls to the 4th. but the pick won't be there. so is poles then gonna trade a 2026 3rd rounder?

Trading future capital could be plausible, you'd have to again consult the board, the roster, and what the next class looks like. The higher the value of the pick you're trading, the less likely it is that you're getting more value (or even equal value) than you could get by staying put and drafting there in the future. This year's 2nd was stacked, and we missed that opportunity, which is obviously not great lol. So yeah, the circumstances to move a future 2nd or 3rd are a lot tougher to find than the ones to move a future 4th or 5th. As an individual I don't know where that line is, but hopefully the organization has it mapped out more rigorously than gut feel or present bias. Because as you note, guys fall every year, and you need a systematic approach to put you in the best opportunity to capitalize when it happens.

we'll see how it all looks in retrospect. here's the first fruits of poles's strategy:

joey porter jr. was expected to go in the middle of the 1st round last year. the bears needed a corner. he fell out of the first round and the steelers nabbed him...with the pick the bears gave up for claypool. porter had a good rookie season

poles clearly felt that booker's value fell somewhere between 122 (punter) and 144. that's not a big difference at that stage of the draft. and i find it hard to believe that one draft differs much from another talent-wise when you get to that point in the draft

[AshyLarrysDiaper]

Don’t know anything about Tory Taylor aside from what I’ve read on Draft Twitter in the last couple hours but I’m cool with reaching for a punter as a QB development tool. Controlling field position takes pressure off 3rd down conversations and might help rein in some of Caleb’s worst tendencies.

[Hold That]

if a guy you think is a 3rd round value falls to the 5th, it makes it seem like a good decision, right? but poles would've taken such a guy in the 4th!

and know what's gonna happen next year? there will be a guy w/ a 2nd or 3rd round grade at a position the bears are looking at who falls to the 4th. but the pick won't be there. so is poles then gonna trade a 2026 3rd rounder?

Trading future capital could be plausible, you'd have to again consult the board, the roster, and what the next class looks like. The higher the value of the pick you're trading, the less likely it is that you're getting more value (or even equal value) than you could get by staying put and drafting there in the future. This year's 2nd was stacked, and we missed that opportunity, which is obviously not great lol. So yeah, the circumstances to move a future 2nd or 3rd are a lot tougher to find than the ones to move a future 4th or 5th. As an individual I don't know where that line is, but hopefully the organization has it mapped out more rigorously than gut feel or present bias. Because as you note, guys fall every year, and you need a systematic approach to put you in the best opportunity to capitalize when it happens.

we'll see how it all looks in retrospect. here's the first fruits of poles's strategy:

joey porter jr. was expected to go in the middle of the 1st round last year. the bears needed a corner. he fell out of the first round and the steelers nabbed him...with the pick the bears gave up for claypool. porter had a good rookie season

poles clearly felt that booker's value fell somewhere between 122 (punter) and 144. that's not a big difference at that stage of the draft. and i find it hard to believe that one draft differs much from another talent-wise when you get to that point in the draft

Poles detractors will be talking about Chase claypool for a 2nd rounder for the next 4-5 seasons.


If that’s been his biggest mistake thus far we’re in very good shape in comparison to other regimes.


Despite us getting Stevenson the NEXT ROUND who cares about Porter Jr. when we got someone arguably better.

[dice]

Trading future capital could be plausible, you'd have to again consult the board, the roster, and what the next class looks like. The higher the value of the pick you're trading, the less likely it is that you're getting more value (or even equal value) than you could get by staying put and drafting there in the future. This year's 2nd was stacked, and we missed that opportunity, which is obviously not great lol. So yeah, the circumstances to move a future 2nd or 3rd are a lot tougher to find than the ones to move a future 4th or 5th. As an individual I don't know where that line is, but hopefully the organization has it mapped out more rigorously than gut feel or present bias. Because as you note, guys fall every year, and you need a systematic approach to put you in the best opportunity to capitalize when it happens.

we'll see how it all looks in retrospect. here's the first fruits of poles's strategy:

joey porter jr. was expected to go in the middle of the 1st round last year. the bears needed a corner. he fell out of the first round and the steelers nabbed him...with the pick the bears gave up for claypool. porter had a good rookie season

poles clearly felt that booker's value fell somewhere between 122 (punter) and 144. that's not a big difference at that stage of the draft. and i find it hard to believe that one draft differs much from another talent-wise when you get to that point in the draft

Poles detractors will be talking about Chase claypool for a 2nd rounder for the next 4-5 seasons.


If that’s been his biggest mistake thus far we’re in very good shape in comparison to other regimes

sure. but he's continued with that mindset. he seems to think his only mistake was the character of the player

"just a 2nd rounder for sweat? he's not under contract after this year? psssh. we'll figure it out. i wanna be better NOW"

"keenan is old, expensive and only under contract 1 more year? pssh. i wanna get better NOW. that's worth a 4th"

"i liked ryan bates before, so why not add a draft pick 2 years later to my original offer even though the low cap hit years are gone. he's only started 2 games at center, but he's gotta be better than patrick!"

"next year's pick? psssh. i see a guy who has fallen a little too much NOW"

[IliketheBullsNBearstoo]

I’ll give Poles the benefit of the doubt with these picks. He’s done a great job rebuilding this team.

[Hold That]

we'll see how it all looks in retrospect. here's the first fruits of poles's strategy:

joey porter jr. was expected to go in the middle of the 1st round last year. the bears needed a corner. he fell out of the first round and the steelers nabbed him...with the pick the bears gave up for claypool. porter had a good rookie season

poles clearly felt that booker's value fell somewhere between 122 (punter) and 144. that's not a big difference at that stage of the draft. and i find it hard to believe that one draft differs much from another talent-wise when you get to that point in the draft

Poles detractors will be talking about Chase claypool for a 2nd rounder for the next 4-5 seasons.


If that’s been his biggest mistake thus far we’re in very good shape in comparison to other regimes

sure. but he's continued with that mindset. he seems to think his only mistake was the character of the player

I think the Steelers will tell you Claypools character held him back, the talent is there. We weren’t the only team who offered a 2nd rounder for him, so did the Packers

[dice]

Poles detractors will be talking about Chase claypool for a 2nd rounder for the next 4-5 seasons.


If that’s been his biggest mistake thus far we’re in very good shape in comparison to other regimes

sure. but he's continued with that mindset. he seems to think his only mistake was the character of the player

I think the Steelers will tell you Claypools character held him back, the talent is there. We weren’t the only team who offered a 2nd rounder for him, so did the Packers

yes, the team that offers the most in a bad trade is just the biggest loser. bears outbid the packers for mack too, coincidentally

and the bears were tanking. the packers weren't. not only was the draft position differential likely to be notable (it was - 32 vs. 42), but the bears shouldn't have been risking adding talent midseason

[dice]

I’ll give Poles the benefit of the doubt with these picks. He’s done a great job rebuilding this team.

sounds like the AKME defense circa 2022. and the pace defense circa 2018

the only difference is that poles has caleb due to the initial tank and an extraordinary amount of luck. that could go a long way in overcoming bad GMing

one needs only look to jerry jones to recognize how much a good QB means. i don't think anyone would mistake jerry for an astute GM, but he's had some success

[NesimLE]

sure. but he's continued with that mindset. he seems to think his only mistake was the character of the player

I think the Steelers will tell you Claypools character held him back, the talent is there. We weren’t the only team who offered a 2nd rounder for him, so did the Packers

yes, the team that offers the most in a bad trade is just the biggest loser. bears outbid the packers for mack too, coincidentally

and the bears were tanking. the packers weren't. not only was the draft position differential likely to be notable (it was - 32 vs. 42), but the bears shouldn't have been risking adding talent midseason

Yeah, Poles spending that season and offseason flipping back and forth between tanking and not tanking was just the weirdest thing. We trade Mack, but not Smith or Quinn. Then as soon as we trade them, we add Claypool...with the way things happened to work out though...

He also needed Cunningham to calm him down to keep from moving up to guarantee Odunze. I'm sure there was a joking element to that, but watching teams like Philly (those first three picks tho) and Baltimore (no one's better at just letting the draft come to them) consistently winning in the draft year after year, Mahomes dominating in KC, and seeing what happened to great QBs like Rodgers and Brees (only one SB appearance each) makes me nervous.

If the Bears really want to dominate, mistakes like that will hurt a lot more as the build continues to get harder, and the stakes get higher. We're only reaching the end of the beginning, and the low hanging fruit is gone. Still a long way to go, and Poles has still done enough that he's got my trust overall...but the process has gotta be on point, along with the coaching, scouting, player development, contract negotiations, every bit of margin will count.

[Hold That]

I think it’s pretty convenient to forget that Poles traded for Claypool because he needed a weapon to evaluate Justin properly and not because he was deciding “between tanking and not tanking”

Did the trade work out? no. But let’s not act like we weren’t on a timeline with Justin and why it needed to be done. The same reason why he was adamant about the Panthers including DJ Moore. We needed a weapon to evaluate fields especially since Claypool didn’t work.

[Clint Eastwood]

trading next years 4th for a 5th reeks of a guy who thinks his job is on the line this season. not a guy who should expect to be around a long time

use THIS year's 4th on the guy if you like him so much. save next year's 4th and skip the punter. christ

That's pretty much the value of a 5th this year- a 4th next year. So he got equal value, and just accelerated the process by a year. What's to complain about?

nonsensical statement. total fallacy. there is no "time value of draft pick" like there is a time value of money. GMs do that **** when their jobs are on the line. THAT's when this year's pick becomes more valuable

GMs tend to value present picks more than future picks because it benefits them personally, not because it benefits the team overall. they are looking for their next contract in a job with a short shelf life

poles has no sense of value and the way he's going he will waste caleb's long-term potential to win super bowls. he's ryan pace redux except he was correct to tear it down when he came in and he thus lucked into caleb. whereas pace's fate was ultimately tied to trubisky

Nutty take imo. To not see how much better poles is than pace is very disappointing. Come to the positive side, dice, time to become a optimistic fan like the rest of us.