Bears 2024: 5.0 It's Caleb Williams time

[Almost Retired]

Now that the Draft is over maybe my crush on Courtney Cronin will subside.

[JockItch43]

I'd say this about Poles. His biggest hits have a massive luck component to them. A lot of his biggest failures felt really dumb in the moment. In a pure neutral environment with luck removed, I'd guess he's no better than average.

That said, it's not this year's problem. This is a great time to be a Bear's fan and whatever mistakes Poles made earlier or even now have largely been washed away by the RNG gods to put us in this great situation. He can still learn / improve in the future.

Identifying Gordon and Brisker in the 2nd round wasn’t luck it’s scouting

Identifying Stevenson wasnt luck in the 3rd round that’s scouting, Braxton Jones a starting LT in the 5th, Gervin Dexter in the 4th..

Trading Sweat for a 2nd rounder which turned around our defense and helped our secondary by getting more pressure on the QB.


Bad moves were drafting Velus and trading for Claypool. What are the other “dumb moves” you can name out of all the moves he’s done?

Passing on Carter.

Given his clear emphasis on team culture, I understood it and have less of a problem with it. Especially given the timing of the rebuild... a young team trying to establish themselves, both on the field and in the locker room. We weren't the Eagles in that regard.

It's also why I knew they would love Rome.

[dougthonus]

Identifying Gordon and Brisker in the 2nd round wasn’t luck it’s scouting

Identifying Stevenson wasnt luck in the 3rd round that’s scouting, Braxton Jones a starting LT in the 5th, Gervin Dexter in the 4th..

Trading Sweat for a 2nd rounder which turned around our defense and helped our secondary by getting more pressure on the QB.


Bad moves were drafting Velus and trading for Claypool. What are the other “dumb moves” you can name out of all the moves he’s done?

My concern is generally his view of asset value.

Taking a punter in the 4th
Trading a 4th to get in this draft with a 5th
Trading picks for guys on expiring deals that you need to resign at market value
Trying to make win now moves while you are also tanking
Hated that he passed on Carter last year (though Wright was also good at a position of need which minimizes the sting)

I don't think Poles is a train wreck or anything, he's also made plenty of aggressive good moves that have worked out, but I really question if he really fully understands the mathematics behind building a great team. If you don't, then your run as a great team will require a lot of luck and also not be long lived.

[jump]

All this talk of Poles' luck is just us posters being "Monday morning quarterbacks" -- yes, I did that. It's silly. Was it luck that Poles traded for Keenan Allen? Was it luck that he traded for DJ Moore last year? Was it luck that he drafted Rome? No. He put himself in position for good things to happen. And they did happen. He made a decision to pack this offense and make it much more likely for Caleb to succeed. Is it guaranteed? Of course not. But it is MUCH more likely. That's how luck works. No one bats 1000. But solid decisions, planning, scouting all improve your odds. "Chance favors the prepared mind." - Louis Pasteur

[Chicago-Bull-E]

I'd say this about Poles. His biggest hits have a massive luck component to them. A lot of his biggest failures felt really dumb in the moment. In a pure neutral environment with luck removed, I'd guess he's no better than average.

That said, it's not this year's problem. This is a great time to be a Bear's fan and whatever mistakes Poles made earlier or even now have largely been washed away by the RNG gods to put us in this great situation. He can still learn / improve in the future.

The guy was the director of college scouting for the Chiefs when they jumped 20 or so spots in the draft to draft Mahomes, about as opposite of luck as you can get. They aren’t doing that without him.

The NFL has a very large component of luck involved. If you want to discredit Poles, you’ll have to discredit everyone. Do you value Bill Bellichek? He was a flameout as a Browns coach before passing on Tom Brady in the draft over and over again. Then Bledsoe gets hurt. That’s all luck.

[Chicago-Bull-E]

All this talk of Poles' luck is just us posters being "Monday morning quarterbacks" -- yes, I did that. It's silly. Was it luck that Poles traded for Keenan Allen? Was it luck that he traded for DJ Moore last year? Was it luck that he drafted Rome? No. He put himself in position for good things to happen. And they did happen. He made a decision to pack this offense and make it much more likely for Caleb to succeed. Is it guaranteed? Of course not. But it is MUCH more likely. That's how luck works. No one bats 1000. But solid decisions, planning, scouting all improve your odds. "Chance favors the prepared mind." - Louis Pasteur

People love attention. Every outlet is lauding the Bears for their draft. If you came out today or yesterday and said Poles sucks, touch grass.

[Hold That]

Identifying Gordon and Brisker in the 2nd round wasn’t luck it’s scouting

Identifying Stevenson wasnt luck in the 3rd round that’s scouting, Braxton Jones a starting LT in the 5th, Gervin Dexter in the 4th..

Trading Sweat for a 2nd rounder which turned around our defense and helped our secondary by getting more pressure on the QB.


Bad moves were drafting Velus and trading for Claypool. What are the other “dumb moves” you can name out of all the moves he’s done?

My concern is generally his view of asset value.

Taking a punter in the 4th
Trading a 4th to get in this draft with a 5th
Trading picks for guys on expiring deals that you need to resign at market value
Trying to make win now moves while you are also tanking
Hated that he passed on Carter last year (though Wright was also good at a position of need which minimizes the sting)

I don't think Poles is a train wreck or anything, he's also made plenty of aggressive good moves that have worked out, but I really question if he really fully understands the mathematics behind building a great team. If you don't, then your run as a great team will require a lot of luck and also not be long lived.

What are the “win now” moves he made during the tank?

A win now move would be signing a veteran to a lofty contract.

Almost all of the players he brings in or signs are 27 years or younger on team friendly front loaded deals..

We basically traded our 2025 4th for Ryan Bates an interior lineman who looked great on film when he got some playing time after the starting C went down for the Bills. He got on our radar after his impressive showing against us last year.

I think so many people are forgetting this draft was labeled as top heavy and was considered a massive dip in talent after round 2. Many GMs across the league said this even media said the same thing. All you heard was how hard it was to get a list of the top 300 prospects because there weren’t many good ones this year.

If Im a GM knowing that I have a 16% chance of finding a player who will be in the league after 2 seasons in the 3 round, 8% in the 4th and less than 5% in the 5th and later, yes I’m going to move my picks for established young players in the NFL.

That’s not undervaluing your picks that’s recognizing the current draft talent pool and capitalizing on the perceived value of your 4th and 5th round pick.

Knowing that the odds are low for you to hit on those later round picks ESPECIALLY in a year that lacked late round talent and depth.

The main reason why their weren’t many trades this year in the draft was due to the fact that across the league nobody wanted later round picks from this years class everyone wanted next years picks knowing that this current class lacked talent.

[Michael Jackson]

Ah. Don’t get your hopes up on Booker indeed. And also, while I actually don’t mind the trade-in in this instance, as previously mentioned Poles often has a tendency to do things under pressure with picks that annoy the crap outa me. Desperate times.

I don't have a ton of hope for Booker. He might be good but just as likely not. The point is wasting a pick next year... hmmmm

Yet we still have 8 picks next year including 2 Second Rounders. Booker will make the squad, for special team coverage if nothing else. He may even get some snaps as an EDGE later in the season. It was not a wasted pick. The kid is 21 years old. He will add weight and strength. There are no more classes to attend. He can now devote himself 100% to improving. And he will.

It’s not that I am worried about Booker just the logic behind taking a punter because there were no good players and then you trade back into the draft. It is just odd. I am fine with both picks but still kinda odd.

[Michael Jackson]

I don't have a ton of hope for Booker. He might be good but just as likely not. The point is wasting a pick next year... hmmmm

Yet we still have 8 picks next year including 2 Second Rounders. Booker will make the squad, for special team coverage if nothing else. He may even get some snaps as an EDGE later in the season. It was not a wasted pick. The kid is 21 years old. He will add weight and strength. There are no more classes to attend. He can now devote himself 100% to improving. And he will.

What Booker may allow the Bears to do is go get an older Edge this year on a one year deal vs. spending big (or trading a lot) to get a prime one.

Yeah I have no issue with Booker he always seemed to be a target so I have no issue on picking him. It is just the process of it that is a bit odd.

[biggestbullsfan]

Read on Twitter

I feel like we somewhat have depth now. Still need a vet edge but I’m happy so far.

[Chicago-Bull-E]

Draft picks devalue a round for every year out, seems like not many people here know that. A 5th round value pick in 2024 has a 4th round value in 2024. That’s league consensus.

Combined with the idea that the Bears likely had a high grade on Booker, and many analysts had a 3rd round grade on him, it was a pretty easy trade to make.

He likely won’t amount to much; and that’s because 75% of dudes 4th round or after don’t amount to much. Not worth much discussion until we see him on the field.

[MisterRoy]

I don't have a ton of hope for Booker. He might be good but just as likely not. The point is wasting a pick next year... hmmmm

Yet we still have 8 picks next year including 2 Second Rounders. Booker will make the squad, for special team coverage if nothing else. He may even get some snaps as an EDGE later in the season. It was not a wasted pick. The kid is 21 years old. He will add weight and strength. There are no more classes to attend. He can now devote himself 100% to improving. And he will.

It’s not that I am worried about Booker just the logic behind taking a punter because there were no good players and then you trade back into the draft. It is just odd. I am fine with both picks but still kinda odd.

Did we already execute the Booker pick trade when the punter was drafted? Consider the order of things and what Poles may have prioritized and what information he may have had that we don’t and maybe this makes more sense.


Sent from somewhere you’ve never been.

[Michael Jackson]

Yet we still have 8 picks next year including 2 Second Rounders. Booker will make the squad, for special team coverage if nothing else. He may even get some snaps as an EDGE later in the season. It was not a wasted pick. The kid is 21 years old. He will add weight and strength. There are no more classes to attend. He can now devote himself 100% to improving. And he will.

It’s not that I am worried about Booker just the logic behind taking a punter because there were no good players and then you trade back into the draft. It is just odd. I am fine with both picks but still kinda odd.

Did we already execute the Booker pick trade when the punter was drafted? Consider the order of things and what Poles may have prioritized and what information he may have had that we don’t and maybe this makes more sense.


Sent from somewhere you’ve never been.

I don’t think so honestly but when Booker kept dropping likely seemed like an opportunity.

[Michael Jackson]

I am interested in the DT from the Illini. Hopefully he can have a Sanborn UDFA type impact. Maybe not a starter but a solid rotation guy.

Anyone know what gap he plays?

[HearshotKDS]

I'd say this about Poles. His biggest hits have a massive luck component to them. A lot of his biggest failures felt really dumb in the moment. In a pure neutral environment with luck removed, I'd guess he's no better than average.

That said, it's not this year's problem. This is a great time to be a Bear's fan and whatever mistakes Poles made earlier or even now have largely been washed away by the RNG gods to put us in this great situation. He can still learn / improve in the future.

Identifying Gordon and Brisker in the 2nd round wasn’t luck it’s scouting

Identifying Stevenson wasnt luck in the 3rd round that’s scouting, Braxton Jones a starting LT in the 5th, Gervin Dexter in the 4th..

Trading Sweat for a 2nd rounder which turned around our defense and helped our secondary by getting more pressure on the QB.


Bad moves were drafting Velus and trading for Claypool. What are the other “dumb moves” you can name out of all the moves he’s done?

Not touching your overall point but the supporting evidence you use is incorrect, Tyrique Stevenson (56) and Gervon Dexter (53) were 2nd round picks, not 3rd and 4th round picks as your post seems to state.

[Hold That]

I'd say this about Poles. His biggest hits have a massive luck component to them. A lot of his biggest failures felt really dumb in the moment. In a pure neutral environment with luck removed, I'd guess he's no better than average.

That said, it's not this year's problem. This is a great time to be a Bear's fan and whatever mistakes Poles made earlier or even now have largely been washed away by the RNG gods to put us in this great situation. He can still learn / improve in the future.

Identifying Gordon and Brisker in the 2nd round wasn’t luck it’s scouting

Identifying Stevenson wasnt luck in the 3rd round that’s scouting, Braxton Jones a starting LT in the 5th, Gervin Dexter in the 4th..

Trading Sweat for a 2nd rounder which turned around our defense and helped our secondary by getting more pressure on the QB.


Bad moves were drafting Velus and trading for Claypool. What are the other “dumb moves” you can name out of all the moves he’s done?

Not touching your overall point but the supporting evidence you use is incorrect, Tyrique Stevenson (56) and Gervon Dexter (53) were 2nd round picks, not 3rd and 4th round picks as your post seems to state.

That makes more sense why we were able to hit on those two players thank you for the correction.

Poles gift is day 2 talent, so I guess it makes sense why everyone panics when trades day 2 picks. Regardless of the return.

[IliketheBullsNBearstoo]

Poles had a list of players he wanted and looks like he got them. He doesnt care where you think he should have drafted them and he doesnt care about who you think they should have drafted instead. The approach is not about lets see who drops to us and hopefully they work out its about these are the guys we think will be good for our team, lets get them. He’s put together what should be a really fun team to watch.

[dougthonus]

What are the “win now” moves he made during the tank?

Moves like trading future picks for Claypool and Sweat.

I think so many people are forgetting this draft was labeled as top heavy and was considered a massive dip in talent after round 2. Many GMs across the league said this even media said the same thing. All you heard was how hard it was to get a list of the top 300 prospects because there weren’t many good ones this year.

If Im a GM knowing that I have a 16% chance of finding a player who will be in the league after 2 seasons in the 3 round, 8% in the 4th and less than 5% in the 5th and later, yes I’m going to move my picks for established young players in the NFL.

That’s not undervaluing your picks that’s recognizing the current draft talent pool and capitalizing on the perceived value of your 4th and 5th round pick.

So why did we trade into the 5th with next year's 4th? Why not trade out with our 4th instead of selecting a punter?

At any rate, I'm not hating on Poles, I'm just also not convinced he's great, but it doesn't matter, he's had amazing luck so far and the Bears are extremely well positioned. I do give Poles some credit for that, I just have concerns from other things I've seen. If you don't fair enough.

[aramada]

Draft picks devalue a round for every year out, seems like not many people here know that. A 5th round value pick in 2024 has a 4th round value in 2024. That’s league consensus.

Combined with the idea that the Bears likely had a high grade on Booker, and many analysts had a 3rd round grade on him, it was a pretty easy trade to make.

He likely won’t amount to much; and that’s because 75% of dudes 4th round or after don’t amount to much. Not worth much discussion until we see him on the field.

This. And Poles built this roster to make a big jump this year and he needs depth
if things go according to plan (big if), he’ll need more talent looking for a year 2 jump next year than a bunch of rookies learning how to be pros.

Anyway, glad to see that the discourse has generally moved away from missing Fields

[Jeffster81]

I'd say this about Poles. His biggest hits have a massive luck component to them. A lot of his biggest failures felt really dumb in the moment. In a pure neutral environment with luck removed, I'd guess he's no better than average.

That said, it's not this year's problem. This is a great time to be a Bear's fan and whatever mistakes Poles made earlier or even now have largely been washed away by the RNG gods to put us in this great situation. He can still learn / improve in the future.

Identifying Gordon and Brisker in the 2nd round wasn’t luck it’s scouting

Identifying Stevenson wasnt luck in the 3rd round that’s scouting, Braxton Jones a starting LT in the 5th, Gervin Dexter in the 4th..

Trading Sweat for a 2nd rounder which turned around our defense and helped our secondary by getting more pressure on the QB.


Bad moves were drafting Velus and trading for Claypool. What are the other “dumb moves” you can name out of all the moves he’s done?

Passing on Carter.

And I still believe in time, Carter is going to prove the Bears correct for passing on him. So passing on Carter was not a "dumb move."