dougthonus wrote:nomorezorro wrote:this seems like a really harsh characterization of how the bears got to where they are, and it seems like it hinges primarily on the notion that poles should have identified that a prospect who wasn't the top QB in his class would turn out to be arguably the best rookie quarterback of all time. you don't have to be a preternatural talent evaluator to be a good gm
tearing the team down to the studs, moving veterans for draft picks, landing a top draft asset in 2023, flipping that top draft asset into multiple valuable draft assets and a proven young player, declining to overcommit to fields, positioning yourself to land a top QB in the 2024 class — these are all very much intentional parts of poles's tenure that are crucial to where the team is at today.
none of those are really next-level visionary moves, but it's a sensible path to building a roster that has created a promising future for the franchise. and i think that would still be true if we had the #2 pick in 2023, or if we needed to use both of our first rounders this year to trade into the top 3 for one of the top-tier QB prospects, or whatever other scenarios you want to envision where our luck wasn't quite as good.
Poles made the win now move at 3-5 to trade a 2nd for Claypool in the year they were the worst team in the league. He wasn't aiming to get that #1 pick. That pick is the basis for everything that happened afterwards, and he has it against what he demonstrably tried to do not because of what he tried to do.
His continued belief in Fields (which now appears unjustified) is what caused him to move that #1 pick that year, and just an amazingly great fortune happened that got him the #1 pick a 2nd year in a row with an elite prospect available.
Those events constitute the vast majority of the positive Bears thoughts right now, both things happened because Poles thought the team was better than it was and still believed in Justin Fields. Completely misevaluating what would happen worked out massively in his favor in consecutive years.
It doesn't really matter how we got here though, we're here now. Poles has had a few years in the seat, and I'm sure he learned some tough lessons along the way. Right place / right time can go along way towards making mistakes painful or not painful.
As you pointed out, the Bears were 3-5 when the Claypool trade was made- not, as you later said "the worst team in the league". Poles couldn't have foreseen at the time the team would not win another game all year. Claypool was exactly what the Bears were looking for- he was big and fast and should have provided a good target for Justin, whose strength was throwing the deep ball. Yes, it turned out poorly, but the rationale behind the trade was sound- he wanted to give Fields more targets to throw to, so that he could better evaluate how good Fields was. It wasn't a "win now" move, it was a move to help him evaluate Fields, and to help Fields develop (just as this year, he's surrounded Caleb with Odunze and Allen to go with DJ and Kmet).
The other statement I take issue with is that he "completely misevaluated what would happen"- I take it you mean Fields not working out. It's not correct, IMO, to say this was a complete misevaluation. Poles felt he didn't have a complete read on Fields yet, and thought he deserved one more year. He gave him an "incomplete", not an "A+". He was unsure of Fields, but thought he needed one more year to fully evaluate him. Not a terrible idea. And he hedged his bet by knowing he would have two pretty high FRP's in '24, so he could move up to get a QB then if he needed to.
It seems to me you aren't giving him enough credit for making a very savvy deal with CAR. We ended up trading Bryce Young/CJ Stroud for Caleb Williams, Tyrique Stevenson, Darnell Wright, DJ Moore, and a 2nd round pick in '25.
