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I think the play-in has actually had the intended effect of reducing the number of tanking teams. Looking around the league, it seems like there are far fewer teams that I would classify as obvious tanking targets, and that will negatively impact our record. Teams like Indy, DET, ORL, OKC are clearly on the upswing.

Definitely competitive at least in the East. Bulls had a SRS of +1.37 and were 13th best in net rating, couldn't even make it off the play in. LAC was +0.31, 17th net rating and a 5th seed out West.

The truth: We don't know.

However, 31-35 wins is about right unless Pat Williams/Ayo/Coby White step up another level.

Low-end guess - 36`wins
High-end guess - 45

I suspect 40 wins, 8 seed play-in game, likely another second-round play-in loss and no playoffs

As teams stand we are still worse then:

MIL, MIA, PHI, BOS, CLE, NYK

On par with: TOR, IND, ATL, BRK

dougthonus wrote:I think there are a few things:
1: Health regressing to the mean has a major chance to hurt us
2: Luck in close games regressing to the mean has a major chance to help us
3: The roster feels better overall

I think we'll end up around 42-45 wins. Interesting, Vegas is really low on the Bulls, quick look was 37.5 over under on the year. That seemed ridiculously low given we were 40 last year and seem stronger entering this year, even if not a ton stronger.

SRS last year was also +1.37, which should have been good for 44 wins

at the same time, the "mid 3" combined for the most minutes in the league last season. plus, DDR is about to turn 34, vuc 33. and zach easily had a career high in minutes played. vuc career high also. so there's considerable age/injury downside potential

my instinct has been to take the over on vegas the last 2 seasons and again this season. but i don't feel like thinking about it much. hoping for the under, but it's at least plausible that this team could snag a 5 or 6 seed and pull an upset against the cavs or sixers in the first round

The Vegas line is a hedge on the Bulls blowing it up at some point this season. I expect it to be closer to 39 or 40 as the season draws nearer and Zach is still on the roster.

Assuming we don’t blow it up, I see 44 wins and a first round out. This team is in decent shape to withstand lengthy injuries to anyone but DeMar.

46-36

My gut instinct says 46

The Box Office wrote:The truth: We don't know.

However, 31-35 wins is about right unless Pat Williams/Ayo/Coby White step up another level.

We're somehow 5 to 9 games worse than last year despite at least partially addressing a few of our biggest weaknesses? How does that work?

GoBlue72391 wrote:

The Box Office wrote:The truth: We don't know.

However, 31-35 wins is about right unless Pat Williams/Ayo/Coby White step up another level.

We're somehow 5 to 9 games worse than last year despite at least partially addressing a few of our biggest weaknesses? How does that work?

It's just a guess. Not a fact. I also wrote "Unless Pat Williams/Ayo/Coby White step up another level."

Did you guess correctly that we missed the playoffs last season?

42

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0-82
The first year we couldn't beat good teams but could beat bad teams
Year 2 we could beat good teams but not bad teams.
Year 3 we cant beat either good or bad...

I see patterns guys.. it's what I do...

I'm going to agree with Vegas. I would not be surprised if Vuc, Lavine or Demar miss a fair number of games this year. I also think that the team is simply a year older and isn't going to be able to play the high energy defense that BD wants (and that frequently kept them in games) every night.

This is a team that just doesn't have that fundamental basis to allow them to win games night in and night out. They don't have overwhelming size, aren't going to win games by outshooting their opponent, no superduperstar to carry them when everyone is off. Its a basic recipe for win a game when the energy and shooting is there, lose a game when its not.

I also don't see a huge plethora of terrible teams that mediocre teams frequently feast on. Those seasons where there are a ton of 45 win teams often have a bunch of 25 win teams that fed them. When the team is off, most teams in the NBA are going to be capable of beating them.

dice wrote:

dougthonus wrote:I think there are a few things:
1: Health regressing to the mean has a major chance to hurt us
2: Luck in close games regressing to the mean has a major chance to help us
3: The roster feels better overall

I think we'll end up around 42-45 wins. Interesting, Vegas is really low on the Bulls, quick look was 37.5 over under on the year. That seemed ridiculously low given we were 40 last year and seem stronger entering this year, even if not a ton stronger.

SRS last year was also +1.37, which should have been good for 44 wins

at the same time, the "mid 3" combined for the most minutes in the league last season. plus, DDR is about to turn 34, vuc 33. and zach easily had a career high in minutes played. vuc career high also. so there's considerable age/injury downside potential

my instinct has been to take the over on vegas the last 2 seasons and again this season. but i don't feel like thinking about it much. hoping for the under, but it's at least plausible that this team could snag a 5 or 6 seed and pull an upset against the cavs or sixers in the first round

This is basically what I think happens too. Dice and Doug nailed it. A relatively stable healthy roster would be a lock for 42 wins now that we have Jevon Carter. I think Coby loses the starting PG job a fourth of the way through, through no fault of his own due to lack of fit with the Mid Three but I also think Coby will have a great exciting 6th man of the year type season while playing starter level minutes. If PWill breaks out, that's when we're at the 5 or 6th seed but I put the odds of that at like, 20-30 %. If Billy irons out the wrinkles and we no longer build our failing offense on Vuce initiating things at the top of the key for that open three, maybe we have a real puncher's chance at a second or third round exit. But health is a real concern -- for the aging that you guys describe, and also because Billy's out there putting SGs on PFs and PGs on SFs over the course of an 82 game season.

I voted 41-45.I believe Jevon Carter and Torrey Craig will start and improve the team but at the end of the day everything will depend on the Big 3 and we won´t pass the first round with them.Coby and Paw can improve the bench unit.

42-40

GoBlue72391 wrote:

The Box Office wrote:The truth: We don't know.

However, 31-35 wins is about right unless Pat Williams/Ayo/Coby White step up another level.

We're somehow 5 to 9 games worse than last year despite at least partially addressing a few of our biggest weaknesses? How does that work?

Teams around us got better and the younger teams are taking a step.

I hate to be a doomer, but I see a 45-50 win quality team that gets hit with the injury bug, dropping their actual record to 36-40 wins but still too much talent on team to miss the playins.

BullChit wrote:0-82
The first year we couldn't beat good teams but could beat bad teams
Year 2 we could beat good teams but not bad teams.
Year 3 we cant beat either good or bad...

I see patterns guys.. it's what I do...

If they had a pick they would somehow end up getting the last pick of the teams who didn't make the playoffs because that's just the way it is for the bulls.

AshyLarrysDiaper wrote:The Vegas line is a hedge on the Bulls blowing it up at some point this season. I expect it to be closer to 39 or 40 as the season draws nearer and Zach is still on the roster.

Assuming we don’t blow it up, I see 44 wins and a first round out. This team is in decent shape to withstand lengthy injuries to anyone but DeMar.

Oh I think you are right, they are hedging on them blowing it up, and they likely have good intel on that. That really only likely changes if the Bulls come out of the gates strong, much like 2 years ago, if they are sitting in first place for a while or anywhere in the top 4 hard to blow it up. If sitting at 8 or below I think the intention is to see what they can get.