Time to get real on Pat's next contract

[DuckIII]

Last 10 Bulls games:
7 games played
8.1p 2.6r 1.6a 2.0to 39.2%fg

Man his contract is going to be tough. He just shows you a little and then it disappears.

It underscores the issue of his own lack of autonomy. Two
pretty significant external things happened during that time: the return of Lavine and Pat playing hobbled.

Nothing you can do about the hobbled part. It happens. But he’s always going to recede into the background offensively unless he’s one of the offensive priorities, which he will never be with Lavine added. He absolutely is not going to do it entirely on his own. He’s going to defer.

Can you trust a guy like that or are you comfortable addressing it via roster construction?

[madvillian]

BD yanking him around with different lineups and playing him injured didn't help. In general if they are just going to show horn everything around the Mid 3 who gives a crap what they do with the rest of the roster?

If they sign pat I just hope they commit to building a team that works, and if they don't sign him? Well, that's strong evidence they have zero idea what they are doing with asset management and I'll probably just stop watching for awhile again.

[League Circles]

There is no way that Patrick will or should shoot much more as long as the vet 3 are here. IMO, it's not necessarily just an issue of his mentality. It's circumstantial. He doesn't get the ball that much and when he does get it I think he shoots it at an adequate frequency. Only way to get more out of him is call more plays for him or move one or more of the vet 3.

[madvillian]

There is no way that Patrick will or should shoot much more as long as the vet 3 are here. IMO, it's not necessarily just an issue of his mentality. It's circumstantial. He doesn't get the ball that much and when he does get it I think he shoots it at an adequate frequency. Only way to get more out of him is call more plays for him or move one or more of the vet 3.

Demar and Zach also have zero idea how you get a team mate going by setting them up early and often. Demar with his asinine bounce passes that pat has to scrape off the floor when he's wide open at the three point line and the next time Zach or Demar throws it ahead in transition will be the first.

How awesome was it seeing AC and Terry pushing the pace last game and finding guys in transition and rewarding running? It was awesome. Pat can benefit from that as well.

Resign him and we need to find guards that want to make the game easier for others.

[Wingy]

Last 10 Bulls games:
7 games played
8.1p 2.6r 1.6a 2.0to 39.2%fg

Man his contract is going to be tough. He just shows you a little and then it disappears.

It underscores the issue of his own lack of autonomy. Two
pretty significant external things happened during that time: the return of Lavine and Pat playing hobbled.

Nothing you can do about the hobbled part. It happens. But he’s always going to recede into the background offensively unless he’s one of the offensive priorities, which he will never be with Lavine added. He absolutely is not going to do it entirely on his own. He’s going to defer.

Can you trust a guy like that or are you comfortable addressing it via roster construction?

I agree with hobbled, but what difference does Zach make to his pure numbers? I think he plays differently, but I don’t see where it changes his stats significantly. I showed how his shot attempts haven’t varied depending on who is in the lineup. Are you saying Zach hurts his shooting %s? That wouldn’t make sense given his %s have been much better than the 7 game stretch his whole career. Seems like it’s more a function of the ankle, and Billy Donovan’s strange love of starting Alex Caruso at the 4.

[MikeDC]

This ankle problem that isn't going to go away for the rest of the season is pretty troubling.

Nah. Just keeps his next contract lower.

Disagree. If a team is prepared to offer Pat 20M per season, that ankle isn't stopping them from doing it.

Both of these answers just assume that the problem magically goes away?

Even paying a lower than average price for a guy is a bad deal if he isn't playing.

[Muzbar]

Does anyone here still believe in Pat at this point? Is he any more than a 3 and D role player?

I get the Coby angle, yeah he could bloom late and become good, but I'm just not seeing it, Coby at least had flashes early on of what he could do. Pat IMO hasn't, he's just happy pottering around in the background. I believe in Julian Phillips more than I do Patrick Williams.

He hasn't scored more than 10ppg in his career yet, granted he's still young, but Coby has only averaged under 10ppg once in his career.

If the Bulls traded Pat, I wouldn't even blink an eye.

[GoBlue72391]

Last 10 Bulls games:
7 games played
8.1p 2.6r 1.6a 2.0to 39.2%fg

Man his contract is going to be tough. He just shows you a little and then it disappears.

It underscores the issue of his own lack of autonomy. Two
pretty significant external things happened during that time: the return of Lavine and Pat playing hobbled.

Nothing you can do about the hobbled part. It happens. But he’s always going to recede into the background offensively unless he’s one of the offensive priorities, which he will never be with Lavine added. He absolutely is not going to do it entirely on his own. He’s going to defer.

Can you trust a guy like that or are you comfortable addressing it via roster construction?

I personally can't trust him and I'm back to leaning towards trading him and letting some other team deal with him and his extension.

Far too many things have to be juuust right in order to get the best version of Pat, and the best version of him just isn't worth all the trouble that entails.

[sco]

Does anyone here still believe in Pat at this point? Is he any more than a 3 and D role player?

I get the Coby angle, yeah he could bloom late and become good, but I'm just not seeing it, Coby at least had flashes early on of what he could do. Pat IMO hasn't, he's just happy pottering around in the background. I believe in Julian Phillips more than I do Patrick Williams.

He hasn't scored more than 10ppg in his career yet, granted he's still young, but Coby has only averaged under 10ppg once in his career.

If the Bulls traded Pat, I wouldn't even blink an eye.

Believe he's an allstar, nope, which is a little disappointing given that he was #4 in his 4th year. That said, I would be thrilled to have a guy who is very good and defense and shooting 3's on a deal around what Coby makes.

I'm fine "Cobying" him the rest of the season (i.e. keep him coming off the bench to drive down his value and saying that we'll match any offer) to get the best deal we can for him.

[Muzbar]

Last 10 Bulls games:
7 games played
8.1p 2.6r 1.6a 2.0to 39.2%fg

Man his contract is going to be tough. He just shows you a little and then it disappears.

It underscores the issue of his own lack of autonomy. Two
pretty significant external things happened during that time: the return of Lavine and Pat playing hobbled.

Nothing you can do about the hobbled part. It happens. But he’s always going to recede into the background offensively unless he’s one of the offensive priorities, which he will never be with Lavine added. He absolutely is not going to do it entirely on his own. He’s going to defer.

Can you trust a guy like that or are you comfortable addressing it via roster construction?

I personally can't trust him and I'm back to leaning towards trading him and letting some other team deal with him and his extension.

Far too many things have to be juuust right in order to get the best version of Pat, and the best version of him just isn't worth all the trouble that entails.

I think that's pretty much where I'm at with him, what does he do that Torrey Craig doesn't do? He really needs to have some stand out games for a decent period of time to make me think otherwise.

[sco]

It underscores the issue of his own lack of autonomy. Two
pretty significant external things happened during that time: the return of Lavine and Pat playing hobbled.

Nothing you can do about the hobbled part. It happens. But he’s always going to recede into the background offensively unless he’s one of the offensive priorities, which he will never be with Lavine added. He absolutely is not going to do it entirely on his own. He’s going to defer.

Can you trust a guy like that or are you comfortable addressing it via roster construction?

I personally can't trust him and I'm back to leaning towards trading him and letting some other team deal with him and his extension.

Far too many things have to be juuust right in order to get the best version of Pat, and the best version of him just isn't worth all the trouble that entails.

I think that's pretty much where I'm at with him, what does he do that Torrey Craig doesn't do? He really needs to have some stand out games for a decent period of time to make me think otherwise.

That's true, but Craig is on his last legs (or off them right now). That said, a Craig-level 3-D player in his prime would probably fetch a decent salary. If you can get Pat on a fair deal for his current production, and bank his upside (e.g. Coby), that's a win.

[FriedRise]

Does anyone here still believe in Pat at this point? Is he any more than a 3 and D role player?

I get the Coby angle, yeah he could bloom late and become good, but I'm just not seeing it, Coby at least had flashes early on of what he could do. Pat IMO hasn't, he's just happy pottering around in the background. I believe in Julian Phillips more than I do Patrick Williams.

He hasn't scored more than 10ppg in his career yet, granted he's still young, but Coby has only averaged under 10ppg once in his career.

If the Bulls traded Pat, I wouldn't even blink an eye.

I think his ceiling has come down a bit from Kawhi to an elite 3&D role player. Still valuable especially for a team like ours, but probably nothing more.

Based on production, I think his contract extension will be similar to what Coby and Ayo got - so around $10-12M/yr. I just can't see anyone offering 20M+ when he's simply just not showing you anything else but plateaued numbers for 4 years in a row. You can still bank on potential because he's so young, but there's a far higher likelihood that his 5th year numbers will be similar to the first 4. Or his 6th, or 7th. He's had those 25-30pt games every other year, but so has every random vet min role player when they get enough shots.

[Ferulci]

Last 10 Bulls games:
7 games played
8.1p 2.6r 1.6a 2.0to 39.2%fg

Man his contract is going to be tough. He just shows you a little and then it disappears.

The team that will give 20M+ to Pat Williams will look like a fool in 2 years, and will try to dump him one year later just like Knicks did with Barrett and Atlanta is trying to do with DeAndre Hunter. It has albatross written all over it.
It's not rocket science: can he become an allstar or not? I would love to hear the argument for it, but nothing he's shown so far indicates Top 40 potential. His ceiling seems to be the 4th best player on a reasonably ok playoff team. Valuable player, but not 25M+ worth, even with increased cap.
If he projects as a role player, you don't overpay. Good front office win on margins, by getting great contract value on role players like Bruce Brown, KCP, Herb Jones or even Derrick White (who is close to an allstar this year). Caruso and White are on great contracts, I don't see any reason to break the bank for a lesser player.

"But, but, if we don't offer 25M+, someone else will"
Fine, let's trade him then ! If Pat is that valuable and a diamond in the rough, then for sure we can get at least some value right ? The team that get him can get a testdrive, work on a contract or match other offers.

So I'm for either trading him before his value plummets (he won't be 22 forever and we're running out of excuses for his passivity), getting him on a Herb Jones-like contract or let him test the free-agency. If he gets a 20M+offer from another team, I wish him the best for his next chapter.

[kodo]

I know Chicago fans will disagree, but there's been zero proof Patrick is an elite defender. There are a ton of metrics attempting to quantify defense and they're all debated, but generally AC appears on them as an elite defender no matter which flavor you choose, Patrick doesn't.

He got zero votes for any all-nba defense team. Players like Beverley, Delon Wright, De'Anthony Melton, Dejounte, PJ Tucker got at least 1 vote.

Even if Chicago fans say he's an elite defender, I think that's going to be a tough sell to another team to pay him like that. And it's not like these defenders get a lot of money either. Herb Jones got 15 votes, shoots 39.6% from 3, and he got $12M per year.

[Ccwatercraft]

There is no way that Patrick will or should shoot much more as long as the vet 3 are here. IMO, it's not necessarily just an issue of his mentality. It's circumstantial. He doesn't get the ball that much and when he does get it I think he shoots it at an adequate frequency. Only way to get more out of him is call more plays for him or move one or more of the vet 3.

Demar and Zach also have zero idea how you get a team mate going by setting them up early and often. Demar with his asinine bounce passes that pat has to scrape off the floor when he's wide open at the three point line and the next time Zach or Demar throws it ahead in transition will be the first.

How awesome was it seeing AC and Terry pushing the pace last game and finding guys in transition and rewarding running? It was awesome. Pat can benefit from that as well.

Resign him and we need to find guards that want to make the game easier for others.

Speaking of running/transition plays.

Why, seriously why does the lead guy almost always just make a beeline to the corner 3 spot, many times not even considering looking over their shoulder for a pass... it seems like a seriously flawed strategy with tons of missed opportunities to break towards the basket for an easy bucket.

I see it 4-5 times a game minimum and it drives me bonkers... if anyone hasn't noticed, look for it, it's there every game.

[Stratmaster]

There is no way that Patrick will or should shoot much more as long as the vet 3 are here. IMO, it's not necessarily just an issue of his mentality. It's circumstantial. He doesn't get the ball that much and when he does get it I think he shoots it at an adequate frequency. Only way to get more out of him is call more plays for him or move one or more of the vet 3.

Demar and Zach also have zero idea how you get a team mate going by setting them up early and often. Demar with his asinine bounce passes that pat has to scrape off the floor when he's wide open at the three point line and the next time Zach or Demar throws it ahead in transition will be the first.

How awesome was it seeing AC and Terry pushing the pace last game and finding guys in transition and rewarding running? It was awesome. Pat can benefit from that as well.

Resign him and we need to find guards that want to make the game easier for others.

Speaking of running/transition plays.

Why, seriously why does the lead guy almost always just make a beeline to the corner 3 spot, many times not even considering looking over their shoulder for a pass... it seems like a seriously flawed strategy with tons of missed opportunities to break towards the basket for an easy bucket.

I see it 4-5 times a game minimum and it drives me bonkers... if anyone hasn't noticed, look for it, it's there every game.

I've noticed it, and it drives me nuts too

Sent from my SM-S911U using RealGM mobile app

[madvillian]

There is no way that Patrick will or should shoot much more as long as the vet 3 are here. IMO, it's not necessarily just an issue of his mentality. It's circumstantial. He doesn't get the ball that much and when he does get it I think he shoots it at an adequate frequency. Only way to get more out of him is call more plays for him or move one or more of the vet 3.

Demar and Zach also have zero idea how you get a team mate going by setting them up early and often. Demar with his asinine bounce passes that pat has to scrape off the floor when he's wide open at the three point line and the next time Zach or Demar throws it ahead in transition will be the first.

How awesome was it seeing AC and Terry pushing the pace last game and finding guys in transition and rewarding running? It was awesome. Pat can benefit from that as well.

Resign him and we need to find guards that want to make the game easier for others.

Speaking of running/transition plays.

Why, seriously why does the lead guy almost always just make a beeline to the corner 3 spot, many times not even considering looking over their shoulder for a pass... it seems like a seriously flawed strategy with tons of missed opportunities to break towards the basket for an easy bucket.

I see it 4-5 times a game minimum and it drives me bonkers... if anyone hasn't noticed, look for it, it's there every game.

I wonder if it's a chicken or an egg thing. We don't have a PG that likes to throw it ahead and we also have players conditioned to not look for an easy bucket at the rim. Terry likes to throw it ahead towards the paint, AC does a bit. Ayo doesn't really have that in his game, Demar and Zach certainly don't. Zach I feel likes to run towards the rim in transition but we don't play fast enough to take advantage.

[Indomitable]

Does anyone here still believe in Pat at this point? Is he any more than a 3 and D role player?

I get the Coby angle, yeah he could bloom late and become good, but I'm just not seeing it, Coby at least had flashes early on of what he could do. Pat IMO hasn't, he's just happy pottering around in the background. I believe in Julian Phillips more than I do Patrick Williams.

He hasn't scored more than 10ppg in his career yet, granted he's still young, but Coby has only averaged under 10ppg once in his career.

If the Bulls traded Pat, I wouldn't even blink an eye.

Pat needs the pressure. He also needs Derozan to go. He avoids responsibility and had to much Derrick Mckey in him.

[Ccwatercraft]

Demar and Zach also have zero idea how you get a team mate going by setting them up early and often. Demar with his asinine bounce passes that pat has to scrape off the floor when he's wide open at the three point line and the next time Zach or Demar throws it ahead in transition will be the first.

How awesome was it seeing AC and Terry pushing the pace last game and finding guys in transition and rewarding running? It was awesome. Pat can benefit from that as well.

Resign him and we need to find guards that want to make the game easier for others.

Speaking of running/transition plays.

Why, seriously why does the lead guy almost always just make a beeline to the corner 3 spot, many times not even considering looking over their shoulder for a pass... it seems like a seriously flawed strategy with tons of missed opportunities to break towards the basket for an easy bucket.

I see it 4-5 times a game minimum and it drives me bonkers... if anyone hasn't noticed, look for it, it's there every game.

I wonder if it's a chicken or an egg thing. We don't have a PG that likes to throw it ahead and we also have players conditioned to not look for an easy bucket at the rim. Terry likes to throw it ahead towards the paint, AC does a bit. Ayo doesn't really have that in his game, Demar and Zach certainly don't. Zach I feel likes to run towards the rim in transition but we don't play fast enough to take advantage.

From my POV it seems deliberate, ie: Billy says you run to the corner, so they run to the corner

[Ice Man]

From my eye test, Pat was deeply overrated by Stacey/this board (regrettably, very often the same thing) during his first two years in the league. Having big hands like Kawhi did not make him Kawhi. He got beaten off the dribble, a lot, and as with almost all young players struggled at times positionally.

From that same eye test now, I think that he has become a pretty darned good defender. Of course eye tests are kinda crap. But I struggle to find defensive statistics that are any better.