Time to get real on Pat's next contract

[madvillian]

From my eye test, Pat was deeply overrated by Stacey/this board (regrettably, very often the same thing) during his first two years in the league. Having big hands like Kawhi did not make him Kawhi. He got beaten off the dribble, a lot, and as with almost all young players struggled at times positionally.

From that same eye test now, I think that he has become a pretty darned good defender. Of course eye tests are kinda crap. But I struggle to find defensive statistics that are any better.

Before his injuries he was the only non center in the top 20 for block and steal rate combined. He's a physical presence and will bang. I just wish he could take that same effort onto the glass more, especially on the offensive glass.

[DuckIII]

I have no concerns with Pat’s talent, skills and ceiling. I unwaveringly believe he is a relatively high ceiling two way player.

I have significant concerns with his mind.

[Hangtime84]

I have no concerns with Pat’s talent, skills and ceiling. I unwaveringly believe he is a relatively high ceiling two way player.

I have significant concerns with his mind.

Ball handling is my concern with him at the moment

[madvillian]

I have no concerns with Pat’s talent, skills and ceiling. I unwaveringly believe he is a relatively high ceiling two way player.

I have significant concerns with his mind.

You can tell within 30 seconds of watching him if he's engaged that night or not. He was engaged against KD and then the stupid refs took him out of the game with two ticky tack fouls only a superstar gets consistently.

[DuallyNoted]

Does Pat need to play at a lighter weight? Comparing him to Kuminga and Wiggins during last night's game, who are both something close to an archetypical modern forward, he seemed to be carrying a lot more weight in his upper body. The ankle is obviously an issue right now, but he seemed to really struggle with the pace and movement GS was playing at. And earlier in the season he was still getting near flat tires on single leg dunk attempts with relatively fresh legs.

why are all these archtypes struggling or straight garbage?

[DASMACKDOWN]

I can pretty much identify everything he is good and bad at right now.

Pat is an excellent spot up 3pt shooter on the baselines. Career 41% is no joke.
Pat pick and drive pull up jumper is MONEY. That is his shot. That is something he should be taking 5 times a game.
Pat is a good defensive player. It has some flaws, but more times than not, he's good.
Pat is a decent passer to the post. He is unselfish and tries to move the ball.

Thats about it for positives.

Biggest negatives are

Pat is terrible at ball handling. You never know if he will just lose it on drives or bounce it off his foot. Thats on every attempt.
Pat is really bad at finishing. Missed dunks yes, but even when it's not, he totally gets off his shot if there is any traffic.
Pat is really bad at rebounding. It's so bad that he normally only tries to box out. But cannot seemingly box out and grab the rebound.
Pat's motor is highly questionable. He doesn't run hard on fast breaks and normally trails. For rebounds, he generally doesn't make any effort to go for the ball.

So basically, while Pat is still very young, and has a lot of upside, he is still very flawed.

There are obviously things he can and will improve on. The dribbling and rebounding are foundation improvements. That could be done in the offseason. No one ever questions Pat's talent. Not from players or coaches. It's about breaking out of his shell and doing it every night.

With that said though I believe in the young guys. I would offer

A Deni Avdija contract extension. 4 years 55 mil. or only go at the high as Max Strus contract 4 years 63mil.

That is more in line with the Coby and Ayo contracts and all 3 can continue to grow together. That also wouldn't cap kill you in the future. And if Pat makes a Coby like jump next year, its a major win.

[FriedRise]

Pat is an excellent spot up 3pt shooter on the baselines. Career 41% is no joke.
Pat pick and drive pull up jumper is MONEY. That is his shot. That is something he should be taking 5 times a game.
Pat is terrible at ball handling. You never know if he will just lose it on drives or bounce it off his foot. Thats on every attempt.

Pat is really bad at rebounding. It's so bad that he normally only tries to box out. But cannot seemingly box out and grab the rebound.
Pat's motor is highly questionable. He doesn't run hard on fast breaks and normally trails. For rebounds, he generally doesn't make any effort to go for the ball.

I feel like he's in his head too much. Instead of just doing what should be his bread and butter (spot up 3, pull up middy), he gets conflicted when he gets the ball and can't decide if he should do the things he's great at or drive it all the way to the rim (dribbling and finishing - two things he's terrible at).

Then again, if he's just taking jumpers, everyone's gonna call him passive. "If he just goes all the way, he'll probably get fouled." But at this point in the season, he's not gonna get better at ballhandling, so just let it be what it is and spam the things you're good at. Doesn't help the team when you're turning the ball over at near 100% rate when you drive in traffic. Coby had the same issue too earlier in his career, he'll have summers to work on it.

Rebounding - to be a good rebounder, it takes special attention to detail, awareness, motor, reaction time, and effort. Lol, does any of that sound like Pat to you?

[Ice Man]

But at this point in the season, he's not gonna get better at ballhandling, so just let it be what it is and spam the things you're good at. Doesn't help the team when you're turning the ball over at near 100% rate when you drive in traffic. Coby had the same issue too earlier in his career, he'll have summers to work on it.

Correct. NBA games aren't for experimentation. They are for doing what you can do best, again and again and again and again. To Pat's credit, he mostly understands that, except for driving too much.

Back in the day, I got into it with Rose fans who were fine with him going 2-8 on threes, all damn season long, because you know he was trying to learn how to get better. That is what the gym is for, folks. Also, the odds strongly are that players who hurt your team by experimenting during games 1) will never get good at that skill, and 2) on the off chance that they do, then they probably will be doing it for another team.

Which of course happened with Derrick. Many seasons later, he had a couple of good 3-point shooting years, and by then he was several teams removed from Chicago.

[Wingy]

The team that will give 20M+ to Pat Williams will look like a fool in 2 years, and will try to dump him one year later just like Knicks did with Barrett and Atlanta is trying to do with DeAndre Hunter. It has albatross written all over it.
It's not rocket science: can he become an allstar or not? I would love to hear the argument for it, but nothing he's shown so far indicates Top 40 potential. His ceiling seems to be the 4th best player on a reasonably ok playoff team. Valuable player, but not 25M+ worth, even with increased cap.
If he projects as a role player, you don't overpay. Good front office win on margins, by getting great contract value on role players like Bruce Brown, KCP, Herb Jones or even Derrick White (who is close to an allstar this year). Caruso and White are on great contracts, I don't see any reason to break the bank for a lesser player.

"But, but, if we don't offer 25M+, someone else will"
Fine, let's trade him then ! If Pat is that valuable and a diamond in the rough, then for sure we can get at least some value right ? The team that get him can get a testdrive, work on a contract or match other offers.

So I'm for either trading him before his value plummets (he won't be 22 forever and we're running out of excuses for his passivity), getting him on a Herb Jones-like contract or let him test the free-agency. If he gets a 20M+offer from another team, I wish him the best for his next chapter.

Well written, basically a perfect summary of my Pat world view. Literally down to some of the same player/contract comps I've had in mind (RJ really). I like him as a player, and he's already a good player. I just don't see that upside. If all better options fail, and it comes down to walk or having to match some over-inflated deal, I'm letting him walk.

I've also said, I wouldn't be shocked if all this talk is much ado about nothing. Coby's price surprised me by how low it was, and Pat's could do the same (e.g.- closer to the Deni, Herb level, but with a bump due to being a better shooter). Those guys get $13.5MM AAV. I'd do a ~$18MM AAV and that still might end up being a fairly clear overpay if his growth curve remains as slow as it has been.

[jacoby1us]

I can pretty much identify everything he is good and bad at right now.

Pat is an excellent spot up 3pt shooter on the baselines. Career 41% is no joke.
Pat pick and drive pull up jumper is MONEY. That is his shot. That is something he should be taking 5 times a game.
Pat is a good defensive player. It has some flaws, but more times than not, he's good.
Pat is a decent passer to the post. He is unselfish and tries to move the ball.

Thats about it for positives.

Biggest negatives are

Pat is terrible at ball handling. You never know if he will just lose it on drives or bounce it off his foot. Thats on every attempt.
Pat is really bad at finishing. Missed dunks yes, but even when it's not, he totally gets off his shot if there is any traffic.
Pat is really bad at rebounding. It's so bad that he normally only tries to box out. But cannot seemingly box out and grab the rebound.
Pat's motor is highly questionable. He doesn't run hard on fast breaks and normally trails. For rebounds, he generally doesn't make any effort to go for the ball.

So basically, while Pat is still very young, and has a lot of upside, he is still very flawed.

There are obviously things he can and will improve on. The dribbling and rebounding are foundation improvements. That could be done in the offseason. No one ever questions Pat's talent. Not from players or coaches. It's about breaking out of his shell and doing it every night.

With that said though I believe in the young guys. I would offer

A Deni Avdija contract extension. [b]4 years 55 mil. or only go at the high as Max Strus contract 4 years 63mil. [/b]

That is more in line with the Coby and Ayo contracts and all 3 can continue to grow together. That also wouldn't cap kill you in the future. And if Pat makes a Coby like jump next year, its a major win.

Great analysis of a player who is still with many flaws.
His inconsistent play is actually a win for us long-term.

[Stratmaster]

Speaking of running/transition plays.

Why, seriously why does the lead guy almost always just make a beeline to the corner 3 spot, many times not even considering looking over their shoulder for a pass... it seems like a seriously flawed strategy with tons of missed opportunities to break towards the basket for an easy bucket.

I see it 4-5 times a game minimum and it drives me bonkers... if anyone hasn't noticed, look for it, it's there every game.

I wonder if it's a chicken or an egg thing. We don't have a PG that likes to throw it ahead and we also have players conditioned to not look for an easy bucket at the rim. Terry likes to throw it ahead towards the paint, AC does a bit. Ayo doesn't really have that in his game, Demar and Zach certainly don't. Zach I feel likes to run towards the rim in transition but we don't play fast enough to take advantage.

From my POV it seems deliberate, ie: Billy says you run to the corner, so they run to the corner

It has to be. Because Zach does it. Pat does it. Ayo does it. Etc....etc...

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[Stratmaster]

Does Pat need to play at a lighter weight? Comparing him to Kuminga and Wiggins during last night's game, who are both something close to an archetypical modern forward, he seemed to be carrying a lot more weight in his upper body. The ankle is obviously an issue right now, but he seemed to really struggle with the pace and movement GS was playing at. And earlier in the season he was still getting near flat tires on single leg dunk attempts with relatively fresh legs.

why are all these archtypes struggling or straight garbage?

Duly noted Dually

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[Stratmaster]

Pat is an excellent spot up 3pt shooter on the baselines. Career 41% is no joke.
Pat pick and drive pull up jumper is MONEY. That is his shot. That is something he should be taking 5 times a game.
Pat is terrible at ball handling. You never know if he will just lose it on drives or bounce it off his foot. Thats on every attempt.

Pat is really bad at rebounding. It's so bad that he normally only tries to box out. But cannot seemingly box out and grab the rebound.
Pat's motor is highly questionable. He doesn't run hard on fast breaks and normally trails. For rebounds, he generally doesn't make any effort to go for the ball.

I feel like he's in his head too much. Instead of just doing what should be his bread and butter (spot up 3, pull up middy), he gets conflicted when he gets the ball and can't decide if he should do the things he's great at or drive it all the way to the rim (dribbling and finishing - two things he's terrible at).

Then again, if he's just taking jumpers, everyone's gonna call him passive. "If he just goes all the way, he'll probably get fouled." But at this point in the season, he's not gonna get better at ballhandling, so just let it be what it is and spam the things you're good at. Doesn't help the team when you're turning the ball over at near 100% rate when you drive in traffic. Coby had the same issue too earlier in his career, he'll have summers to work on it.

Rebounding - to be a good rebounder, it takes special attention to detail, awareness, motor, reaction time, and effort. Lol, does any of that sound like Pat to you?

The problem with the pull up middy, is that it's not always there. As was mentioned, if Pat is contested in any way he crumbles.

Basically, he is an open 3 and D guy. Sadly, a 3 and D forward who can't rebound.

When Pat has an open shot, I have a high level of confidence it will go in. If he isn't wide open or has to make a move, I have a high level of confidence something very bad will happen.

Defensively, I agree with some others that he is overrated; but he is solid. A very good defender.

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[Ice Man]

His inconsistent play is actually a win for us long-term.

That sentence should be used in a dictionary to illustrate the meaning of the word "optimism."

[jacoby1us]

His inconsistent play is actually a win for us long-term.

That sentence should be used in a dictionary to illustrate the meaning of the word "optimism."

[MikeDC]

If the Pistons truly liked and still like Pat, I'd willingly trade him for Ausar or Cade in addition to a Lavine for Bogdan/Stewart deal.
I dont' think I'd trade him for Ivey though, just because I'm not very high on Ivey. Maybe Ivey and a reasonable pick?

Pat's basically in the spot where I think he's probably going to get a contract that won't kill us, but also won't be great. If we could make that move, we should.

[GoBlue72391]

I think it's becoming more and more obvious that the correct move regarding Pat is to trade him and address the PF position with a different player, whether that's via trade, FA, or draft and let some other team deal with Pat's extension.

[Wingy]

I think it's becoming more and more obvious that the correct move regarding Pat is to trade him and address the PF position with a different player, whether that's via trade, FA, or draft and let some other team deal with Pat's extension.

Right move for you, but won’t be for AK. Like most, he was happy to toss the other guy’s players to the curb. His own, not so much. See Vuc. He doesn’t get the sunk cost fallacy.

At least with Pat it has a much greater chance of working out simply due to player age.

[dougthonus]

If the Pistons truly liked and still like Pat, I'd willingly trade him for Ausar or Cade in addition to a Lavine for Bogdan/Stewart deal.
I dont' think I'd trade him for Ivey though, just because I'm not very high on Ivey. Maybe Ivey and a reasonable pick?

Pat's basically in the spot where I think he's probably going to get a contract that won't kill us, but also won't be great. If we could make that move, we should.

I can't imagine the Pistons liking Pat more than any of those guys. Especially as a pending FA.

[MikeDC]

If the Pistons truly liked and still like Pat, I'd willingly trade him for Ausar or Cade in addition to a Lavine for Bogdan/Stewart deal.
I dont' think I'd trade him for Ivey though, just because I'm not very high on Ivey. Maybe Ivey and a reasonable pick?

Pat's basically in the spot where I think he's probably going to get a contract that won't kill us, but also won't be great. If we could make that move, we should.

I can't imagine the Pistons liking Pat more than any of those guys. Especially as a pending FA.

I wouldnt either, but they’re shopping around looking at Miles Bridges who will be a UFA and has a ton of baggage that Pat doesnt. Also, a sensible team in their position would have no interest in Zach.

But theyre not in that position because they do what makes sense.