Bears 2024 2.0

[_txchilibowl_]

I prefer Sam Howell to Justin Fields.

lol

Sorry I should have clarified.

I prefer Sam Howell to Justin Fields when playing quarterback. I would take Fields as a change of pace running back all day.

[patryk7754]

The idea of trading down from #9 to get additional 2nd and 3rd round picks is really growing on me. We could grab a starter-caliber player at both WR and C and still have some more draft capital to address other needs (Safety, Edge, etc)

With the caveat that it depends on how FA goes.

It would depend on who is available and what we do with the 1st pick and in free agency. If bowers is available at 9, I take him no matter what. If we don't address WR2 before pick 9 and Nabers or Odunze are available, you take them.

[1985Bear]

For reference: For the 3rd pick last year, Houston gave up pick 12, 33 a 2024 1st (23rd) and a 2024 3rd (90th)
Will Anderson was an excellent prospect.

For the 6th pick: Arizona gave 12 and 34th.

Big disparity between 3rd and 6th pick.

Could Bears work with Arizona this year for MHJ at 4? 9 and next years 1st may get that done.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[patryk7754]

For reference: For the 3rd pick last year, Houston gave up pick 12, 33 a 2024 1st (23rd) and a 2024 3rd (90th)
Will Anderson was an excellent prospect.

For the 6th pick: Arizona gave 12 and 34th.

Big disparity between 3rd and 6th pick.

Could Bears work with Arizona this year for MHJ at 4? 9 and next years 1st may get that done.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I think your correct in thinking that that's what would be needed to trade up and I'm not sure if I'm willing to deal all that. Maybe after the fact and see if Bowers drops to 9. But I think the Cardinals keep the pick no matter what, if Harrison is there.

[patryk7754]

Interesting first 5 min (didn't watch the rest). Not a great example because you should go season by season, and some drafts have a clear number one prospect (like the 2024 draft with Williams) but it does point out two key points. 1. Just because you're an "expert analyst" doesn't necessarily mean their opinion is gospel and that even if they do have elite college tape and are "no brainers" prospects, they don't always pan out.

Watch on YouTube

[TheJordanRule]

I prefer Sam Howell to Justin Fields.

Sam was an amazing steal in the 5th round. I think he'll be one of those guys in the NFL who walks the line between being an excellent back up QB, and leaky starter. I know I'm biased, Texas, but I think Justin has more upside. Sam typically makes quick short passes. I respect that, and Justin's still learning how to do that, but Justin can use his legs as a legit rushing threat, throw accurate deep bombs with his wicked arm strength, and gets intercepted less. It's safer to bet on the guy with big upside, even when that guy is struggling to do the basic plays, over the guy who can only make the typical plays happen. Sam has major turnover problems. Is that a function of his offensive line?

[Peelboy]

I don't think a Gm saying that he'd draft Williams over Elway, Manning, or Burrow is an example of just how great Williams is but how people tend to overhype prospects. Those three were clearly better prospects than Williams. But I love the Mahomes comparisons - it just means we'll get so much more when we trade the 1st pick.

Not to call you out only, but a lot of comments along the lines of "well the evaluators make mistakes, so they're wrong about Caleb." That basically translates to "evaluators make mistakes, therefore I'm right when I think something different than them right now and they're wrong."

That's the reason why what's important to me is the overwhelming consensus across multiple sources/evaluators (including journalists who say they've surveyed a bunch of scouts, unless you think they're lying). Everyone says something ranging from "a really really good prospect" to "one of the best prospects ever." I think it's a fallacy to say "I disagree, and look they've been wrong before." That argument applies even more so to any of us and to any evaluation of Fields (or Marv).

It seems you've misinterpreted my statement. Im not saying he's wrong to think Williams is an all time prospect, but by any metric, williams is not a better prospect than at least Luck, Manning, and Elway. Those three were literally flawless (unless you want to count Mannings lack of athleticism). Even with how great of a player williams is, he still has things he needs to workout like processing the play faster. It might be nitpicky, but when comparing to those guys, you have to .

What I'm saying is that the guys who do this for a living also understand that and are saying that he's on par with them. Manning for example was a known statue, which was a knock on him. No prospects are perfect, they all have their own flaws/questions. But I've yet to see someone who does this for a living say anything other than strong to ridiculous praise for CW as a QB prospect.

But even if he's a shade below or a full step below those guys, that's still one of the best QB prospects in a long while. So the math on strategy doesn't really change.

[Dresden]

From a yahoo article:

5. You can win without a top-five QB

There are a handful of quarterbacks walking the planet that can lift an entire organization on their shoulders. Teammates, coaches, schemes, it doesn't matter. They're just that good. That doesn't mean the rest of the NFL should give up if they don't have one of those QBs.

There are other ways to win. The debate will go on forever about Brock Purdy, but the truth is he was the last pick of the seventh round and the 49ers built a championship team around him. That's a blueprint. It's safe to say Jared Goff isn't a top-five quarterback, but the Detroit Lions were a break or two from making a Super Bowl with him.

It's great to have a Patrick Mahomes. That makes life easier. But if you don't have one of those superstars, you can do just fine in the NFL.

[MissileMike]

nope. not overlooking anything. you think Williams or any other QB will be better than Mahomes, Herbert, Burrow, Allen, Jackson? Chances are he's not going to be a top 5 QB. I've said over and over Williams would be great to have but I think Fields will be great so its better to build around him.

Let's say the bears keep JF and trade down. What kind of numbers are you expecting out of him next season?

[Dresden]

The counter to that argument is that Brock Purdy did lead the league in QBR this year, so maybe he IS a top 5 qb. And Jared Goff sure played like a top 5. I think I read that when he's not under pressure, he's the most accurate in the league.

And if you look at the teams that were in contention this year- SF, DET, BAL, KC, and I would include BUF in that group, they all had QB's that could legitimately be called top 5. At least top 7 or 8.

The question will always remain- does the QB elevate the team, or is the team elevating the QB?

[Dresden]

An argument for taking Bowers:

2. Tight ends matter

Look at the final four of the NFL playoffs and there was a common thread: Every team had a top tight end. The Baltimore Ravens had two; Isaiah Likely proved his value after Mark Andrews' leg injury. Sam LaPorta had a great rookie season for the Detroit Lions. And there's no arguing that George Kittle of the San Francisco 49ers and Travis Kelce of the Chiefs are among the best in the game.

You can make a reasonable argument that a healthy Andrews, Kittle, Kelce and LaPorta are all among the top five tight ends in football. It's not a coincidence all their teams were in the conference championship.

[patryk7754]

nope. not overlooking anything. you think Williams or any other QB will be better than Mahomes, Herbert, Burrow, Allen, Jackson? Chances are he's not going to be a top 5 QB. I've said over and over Williams would be great to have but I think Fields will be great so its better to build around him.

Let's say the bears keep JF and trade down. What kind of numbers are you expecting out of him next season?

At minimum (assuming he plays all 17 games) 3400 pass yards 850 rush yards. That about what he would have done this season if he played 17 games. That’s pretty similar to Lamar. I expect to be much better next season with a much better OC than getsy. I wouldn’t be surprised if he finished with that type of yardage and about 30-35 total TDs. 25ish passing 5-10 rushing

[fleet]

I don't think a Gm saying that he'd draft Williams over Elway, Manning, or Burrow is an example of just how great Williams is but how people tend to overhype prospects. Those three were clearly better prospects than Williams. But I love the Mahomes comparisons - it just means we'll get so much more when we trade the 1st pick.

If NFL FOs believed that stuff about CW, the asset is completely untradeable. If you want to trade the pick, you better hope they don’t think that stuff.

that doesn't really make sense. If Poles has decided to keep fields, he should want other teams to think Williams (or whoever) is better than Jesus, maximizing his return in the trade.

Unless you are saying Poles should take other teams opinions on Williams into consideration- which wouldn't be wise

No. I am saying that if the other teams believe the scouting reports referenced, chances are so does Poles. And nobody trades a prospect like that. They draft the prospect. Invariably.

[Betta Bulleavit]

I prefer Sam Howell to Justin Fields.

lol

Sorry I should have clarified.

I prefer Sam Howell to Justin Fields when playing quarterback. I would take Fields as a change of pace running back all day.

I don’t think you needed to clarify. Your point was very clear. With that said, besides passing yards, can you identify any other tangible metric by which he was better than Fields??

[Betta Bulleavit]

nope. not overlooking anything. you think Williams or any other QB will be better than Mahomes, Herbert, Burrow, Allen, Jackson? Chances are he's not going to be a top 5 QB. I've said over and over Williams would be great to have but I think Fields will be great so its better to build around him.

Let's say the bears keep JF and trade down. What kind of numbers are you expecting out of him next season?

IF that happened, I think they the expectations would have to be lofty. So I would say

4000 passing yards
800 rushing
35 total touchdowns with a 2.25/1 TD to INT ratio or better
Top 12 in passer rating
Top 10 in total QBR

To pass up on what we’d be passing up on, that’s what I’d need to see.

[patryk7754]

If NFL FOs believed that stuff about CW, the asset is completely untradeable. If you want to trade the pick, you better hope they don’t think that stuff.

that doesn't really make sense. If Poles has decided to keep fields, he should want other teams to think Williams (or whoever) is better than Jesus, maximizing his return in the trade.

Unless you are saying Poles should take other teams opinions on Williams into consideration- which wouldn't be wise

No. I am saying that if the other teams believe the scouting reports, chances are so does Poles. And nobody trades a prospect like that. They draft the prospect. Invariably.

Well yeah. If poles thinks he is the next Mahomes it would be dumb not to draft him. But if poles should come to the conclusion that he’d rather roll with fields, he should still want everyone to consider Williams or any other prospect the next great prospect so he gets everything they have.

[patryk7754]

nope. not overlooking anything. you think Williams or any other QB will be better than Mahomes, Herbert, Burrow, Allen, Jackson? Chances are he's not going to be a top 5 QB. I've said over and over Williams would be great to have but I think Fields will be great so its better to build around him.

Let's say the bears keep JF and trade down. What kind of numbers are you expecting out of him next season?

IF that happened, I think they the expectations would have to be lofty. So I would say

4000 passing yards
800 rushing
35 total touchdowns with a 2.25/1 TD to INT ratio or better
Top 12 in passer rating
Top 10 in total QBR

To pass up on what we’d be passing up on, that’s what I’d need to see.

I think the disconnect is that people don’t see fields reaching these stats. He will be better no matter what next season becuase he’ll be in a system that will maximize his strengths. Fields has shown the ability to carry a game as a pass multiple times this season. I believe he had a top 5 passer rating when targeting Moore or Kmet and had a top five passer rating in down and goal situations. I think it’s fair to assume he’ll be at least 10% better with another blue chip weapon and an OC actively getting in his way. And with that, he’ll be putting up Lamar numbers.

[fleet]

that doesn't really make sense. If Poles has decided to keep fields, he should want other teams to think Williams (or whoever) is better than Jesus, maximizing his return in the trade.

Unless you are saying Poles should take other teams opinions on Williams into consideration- which wouldn't be wise

No. I am saying that if the other teams believe the scouting reports, chances are so does Poles. And nobody trades a prospect like that. They draft the prospect. Invariably.

Well yeah. If poles thinks he is the next Mahomes it would be dumb not to draft him. But if poles should come to the conclusion that he’d rather roll with fields, he should still want everyone to consider Williams or any other prospect the next great prospect so he gets everything they have.

There is nothing that can get Kansas City to trade Mahomes. You could offer 6 thousand draft picks. Not for sale. Some things are not for sale. Or damn close to it. And a Justin Fields isn’t going to make it Ok to be a seller. Would the Colts have traded Andrew Luck if Fields was on the roster? Ask that question about all the other quarterbacks we have been talking about as well.

[biggestbullsfan]

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I’m team Justin, but it doesn’t sound like he’s describing him right here

[fleet]

Read on Twitter

I’m team Justin, but it doesn’t sound like he’s describing him right here

He’s plainly describing the prevalent idea of what Caleb is. Even if it’s just the idea of what Caleb is, and not Caleb.