Lonzo Ball Recovery tracking thread update p76 - Lonzo Has Started Sprinting!

[coldfish]

I wish we could **** down this thread. Lonzo is never playing another minute in the NBA.

That's not what Arturas thinks.

One of the things I found really offensive about this whole thing is that Chicago is more profitable by keeping him on the roster and getting the insurance money than medically retiring him and signing other players.

I wonder how much that plays into all of this.

[Dan Z]

I wish we could **** down this thread. Lonzo is never playing another minute in the NBA.

That's not what Arturas thinks.

One of the things I found really offensive about this whole thing is that Chicago is more profitable by keeping him on the roster and getting the insurance money than medically retiring him and signing other players.

I wonder how much that plays into all of this.

I'd like to think that's not the case, but you never know with Bulls ownership.

One issue with medically retiring him is that it might be difficult to do. Lonzo got surgery and by all accounts has said he'll come back. Will he? Who knows? I think that even if he comes back he won't be the same player and that the Bulls should move on.

[dougthonus]

That's not what Arturas thinks.

One of the things I found really offensive about this whole thing is that Chicago is more profitable by keeping him on the roster and getting the insurance money than medically retiring him and signing other players.

I wonder how much that plays into all of this.

I'd like to think that's not the case, but you never know with Bulls ownership.

One issue with medically retiring him is that it might be difficult to do. Lonzo got surgery and by all accounts has said he'll come back. Will he? Who knows? I think that even if he comes back he won't be the same player and that the Bulls should move on.

We had a longer debate earlier in the thread about this topic, but it's definitely not an open/shut question.

The flip side is, the only down side to trying is that you have to waive him to do so. Which means that by not trying you think one of a few things:
1: There's some chance he can come back, because even if he comes back for someone else, the money gets put back on your books regardless of his productivity, so you'd rather be the team he comes back for even if its at a lower level.

2: You think there is some arbitrage you can do in the final year of his deal as a cash saving move due to the insurance if he's still out (certainly possible, but it can't be used to cut a luxury tax bill which would be the biggest benefit if it were possible)

3: You really just want to save the cash yourself

Granted, your rationale doesn't have to be explicitly in one camp. You could figure the risk of #1 is pretty high so you might as well keep him and then you can attempt #2 and worst case you end up in boat #3.

You can also try again this summer, though it becomes a timing issue where you probably won't get approved fast enough to effectively use the space.

[HomoSapien]

So per wiretap, this dude still hasn’t ramped up enough to sprint. I’m optimistic more than most, but maybe AK dodged all those questions about being able to retain everyone because he suspects Ball will be medically retired.

[Dan Z]

One of the things I found really offensive about this whole thing is that Chicago is more profitable by keeping him on the roster and getting the insurance money than medically retiring him and signing other players.

I wonder how much that plays into all of this.

I'd like to think that's not the case, but you never know with Bulls ownership.

One issue with medically retiring him is that it might be difficult to do. Lonzo got surgery and by all accounts has said he'll come back. Will he? Who knows? I think that even if he comes back he won't be the same player and that the Bulls should move on.

We had a longer debate earlier in the thread about this topic, but it's definitely not an open/shut question.

The flip side is, the only down side to trying is that you have to waive him to do so. Which means that by not trying you think one of a few things:
1: There's some chance he can come back, because even if he comes back for someone else, the money gets put back on your books regardless of his productivity, so you'd rather be the team he comes back for even if its at a lower level.

2: You think there is some arbitrage you can do in the final year of his deal as a cash saving move due to the insurance if he's still out (certainly possible, but it can't be used to cut a luxury tax bill which would be the biggest benefit if it were possible)

3: You really just want to save the cash yourself

Granted, your rationale doesn't have to be explicitly in one camp. You could figure the risk of #1 is pretty high so you might as well keep him and then you can attempt #2 and worst case you end up in boat #3.

You can also try again this summer, though it becomes a timing issue where you probably won't get approved fast enough to effectively use the space.

I agree with you especially at this point. He has one more year left on his deal.

If they did this before the season..sure. But even if they did I bet Lonzo would fight it and it could end up being a bit of a mess.

Either way it's a shame that he got hurt and hopefully he does recover to become a productive player again. I have my doubts that he will, but we'll find out.

[dougthonus]

If they did this before the season..sure. But even if they did I bet Lonzo would fight it and it could end up being a bit of a mess.

Lonzo really isn't involved in the process. He has no reason to fight it or not fight it one way or the other. If it is deemed successful, Lonzo isn't obligated to retire or stop trying a comeback. He just is off the Bulls books. Nothing else happens. Since he's waived as part of the process, literally nothing changes for him whatsoever. The downside for the Bulls is if he continues to attempt to come back and is successful then the Bulls have the money thrown back on their books.

Either way it's a shame that he got hurt and hopefully he does recover to become a productive player again. I have my doubts that he will, but we'll find out.

Seems like extremely low odds he'll ever be productive again and low odds that he'll even play again.

[Dan Z]

If they did this before the season..sure. But even if they did I bet Lonzo would fight it and it could end up being a bit of a mess.

Lonzo really isn't involved in the process. He has no reason to fight it or not fight it one way or the other. If it is deemed successful, Lonzo isn't obligated to retire or stop trying a comeback. He just is off the Bulls books. Nothing else happens. Since he's waived as part of the process, literally nothing changes for him whatsoever. The downside for the Bulls is if he continues to attempt to come back and is successful then the Bulls have the money thrown back on their books.

Either way it's a shame that he got hurt and hopefully he does recover to become a productive player again. I have my doubts that he will, but we'll find out.

Seems like extremely low odds he'll ever be productive again and low odds that he'll even play again.

What I mean is that Lonzo will mostly likely continue to say that he's coming back and done everything that's asked of him. That won't effect the arbiter deciding on the medical exception?

The arbiter could look at all the facts and rule that he's done regardless of whatever Lonzo says, but I think there's enough of a "glimmer of hope" that he'll come back that the ruling might not be a definitive yes.

[jnrjr79]

If they did this before the season..sure. But even if they did I bet Lonzo would fight it and it could end up being a bit of a mess.

Lonzo really isn't involved in the process. He has no reason to fight it or not fight it one way or the other. If it is deemed successful, Lonzo isn't obligated to retire or stop trying a comeback. He just is off the Bulls books. Nothing else happens. Since he's waived as part of the process, literally nothing changes for him whatsoever. The downside for the Bulls is if he continues to attempt to come back and is successful then the Bulls have the money thrown back on their books.

Either way it's a shame that he got hurt and hopefully he does recover to become a productive player again. I have my doubts that he will, but we'll find out.

Seems like extremely low odds he'll ever be productive again and low odds that he'll even play again.

What I mean is that Lonzo will mostly likely continue to say that he's coming back and done everything that's asked of him. That won't effect the arbiter deciding on the medical exception?

The arbiter could look at all the facts and rule that he's done regardless of whatever Lonzo says, but I think there's enough of a "glimmer of hope" that he'll come back that the ruling might not be a definitive yes.

I'd imagine whether the player is working hard to come back is something a reasonable independent physician would take into account, but I don't think it likely moves the needle all that much. Though, obviously, if the players said "yeah, I'm cooked," I suppose things would be easier!

If we reach this offseason and Lonzo still can't run/jump/cut like a basketball player, I'd have to think the medical retirement has a pretty good chance.

FWIW, Lonzo is required to sit for an examination and disclose all his medical info to the independent physician, so I'm not sure exactly how much he could do to obstruct things, beyond, I suppose, lying about whether he has pain and that sort of thing.

[Dan Z]

Lonzo really isn't involved in the process. He has no reason to fight it or not fight it one way or the other. If it is deemed successful, Lonzo isn't obligated to retire or stop trying a comeback. He just is off the Bulls books. Nothing else happens. Since he's waived as part of the process, literally nothing changes for him whatsoever. The downside for the Bulls is if he continues to attempt to come back and is successful then the Bulls have the money thrown back on their books.



Seems like extremely low odds he'll ever be productive again and low odds that he'll even play again.

What I mean is that Lonzo will mostly likely continue to say that he's coming back and done everything that's asked of him. That won't effect the arbiter deciding on the medical exception?

The arbiter could look at all the facts and rule that he's done regardless of whatever Lonzo says, but I think there's enough of a "glimmer of hope" that he'll come back that the ruling might not be a definitive yes.

I'd imagine whether the player is working hard to come back is something a reasonable independent physician would take into account, but I don't think it likely moves the needle all that much. Though, obviously, if the players said "yeah, I'm cooked," I suppose things would be easier!

If we reach this offseason and Lonzo still can't run/jump/cut like a basketball player, I'd have to think the medical retirement has a pretty good chance.

FWIW, Lonzo is required to sit for an examination and disclose all his medical info to the independent physician, so I'm not sure exactly how much he could do to obstruct things, beyond, I suppose, lying about whether he has pain and that sort of thing.

It's possible that an arbiter sees that Lonzo is doing everything that he's asked, had surgery (I forget when that was) and think that he's right on schedule. Even if Lonzo "limps" into next year that still mean he's back.

If the feeling is that there's still a possibility of Lonzo returning next year then it might not be possible to get the medical exception this off season.

Of course, I'm just speculating.

Also, it's possible that AK is delusional and plans on Lonzo being a big part of the team next year.

[ChettheJet]

Some fans of every team, not limited to the Bulls, can vastly over rate what they've got or see the absolute downside behind every door.

I always consider the source and in this Lonzo case, it's Joe F'n Cowley. He's staked out the pick at the disaster territory as the writer at the Sun Times, which is battling back from being a rag and is barely able to borrow enough to stay in business. He figures his best bet at getting attention is going negative and hammering on it over and over. Is there any word from any other source about what Lonzo can or cannot do?

Whatever Lonzo can or cannot do today is of concern to the training staff but does anyone want Billy spending any time keeping up with the guy who he knows won't be playing by training camp at best? Billy has his hands full with trying to win games with the guys who show up in the locker room and how Zack, Patrick or Lonzo feel is of no concern to him, they aren't jumping out of an ambulance to help win games this year.

I'm not worried about sprinting in March, I want to know how long he can run, how long he can stay on a treadmill, can he jump and does he feel any pain when he does those things.When Lonzo feels confident in his knee he can start doing short bursts and get to running harder each week. I want him building strength in his legs at his pace and then seeing him full speed in September, yeah that's 6 months away.

[jnrjr79]

I'm not worried about sprinting in March, I want to know how long he can run, how long he can stay on a treadmill, can he jump and does he feel any pain when he does those things.When Lonzo feels confident in his knee he can start doing short bursts and get to running harder each week. I want him building strength in his legs at his pace and then seeing him full speed in September, yeah that's 6 months away.

You should be worried about sprinting in March! March marks one year since his cartilage transplant. It's pretty concerning if he can't sprint at this point. And the window to seek to medically retire him opens in July, so I wouldn't be so sure that he's got 6 months to complete his recovery.

[Bulliever2020]

6 months is definitely not ample time to go from not even being able to sprint to being up to speed at an NBA level. Not looking good.

There really has been no actual positive news on the Lonzo front for a long, long time. That short treadmill video that everyone got worked up about seems like a lifetime ago.

[Axl Rose]

What I mean is that Lonzo will mostly likely continue to say that he's coming back and done everything that's asked of him. That won't effect the arbiter deciding on the medical exception?

The arbiter could look at all the facts and rule that he's done regardless of whatever Lonzo says, but I think there's enough of a "glimmer of hope" that he'll come back that the ruling might not be a definitive yes.

He hasn't played in 2 1/2 seasons so if he's not close to a return by the time the process opens up again i don't see how they deny it, regardless of what he says. I mean good lord does he have to be dead?

The Bulls (or insurance) still pay him so really the only thing medical retirement does is clear his cap hit. It shouldn't be that rigorous to get an affirmative ruling.

[Dan Z]

What I mean is that Lonzo will mostly likely continue to say that he's coming back and done everything that's asked of him. That won't effect the arbiter deciding on the medical exception?

The arbiter could look at all the facts and rule that he's done regardless of whatever Lonzo says, but I think there's enough of a "glimmer of hope" that he'll come back that the ruling might not be a definitive yes.

He hasn't played in 2 1/2 seasons so if he's not close to a return by the time the process opens up again i don't see how they deny it, regardless of what he says. I mean good lord does he have to be dead?

The Bulls (or insurance) still pay him so really the only thing medical retirement does is clear his cap hit. It's not that big of a thing to be so rigorous to get an affirmative ruling.

Obviously I don't know the behind-the-scenes of all of this, but I think every step of the way there's always been a small amount of "maybe he'll come back" (even though I don't agree with it).

Its possible that might be enough for an arbiter to say no. Like I said...Lonzo might even "limp" into the season and barely be on the court.

Or it's possible that AK is keeping Lonzo around so they can use his contract in a trade (something Doug suggested).

Or the third option is that AK is delusional.

I agree with you and think he's done, at least with the Bulls. If he comes back he'll be rusty and needs time to figure it out. AK should go forward with that in mind.

[dougthonus]

What I mean is that Lonzo will mostly likely continue to say that he's coming back and done everything that's asked of him. That won't effect the arbiter deciding on the medical exception?

The arbiter could look at all the facts and rule that he's done regardless of whatever Lonzo says, but I think there's enough of a "glimmer of hope" that he'll come back that the ruling might not be a definitive yes.

I think those things are true regardless of what Lonzo says. Lonzo's opinion about his prognosis probably isn't particularly relevant. A board certified physician looks at his medicals and makes a decision. I'm not sure Lonzo saying "well I had this surgery, and I'm doing the prescribed PT" has a lot of meaning to a physician about likelihood of returning to capable play.

I think they would lean on what is the typical prognosis of this injury and what is the history of the injury. I'm not saying those things amount to yes we'd win or no we'd lose outcome, but I don't think Lonzo opining on his own ability at a point where he clearly cannot play today is all that meaningful one way or the other.

It's also worth noting that this doesn't have to be "Lonzo can't ever play again beyond a shadow of a doubt" type of situation. If it's deemed that he's unlikely to ever be able to play again, they can grant the Bulls the relief, and if Lonzo does play, we just get the money added back on to the books.

[MGB8]

Except that it is effectively too late for any of it. And, as Coldfish suggested, the vibe is that with insurance paying the contract either way, ownership preferred keeping the contract on the cap rather than getting that cap space back and being effectively forced to then pay out replacement salary. They’d rather be a cheaper, worse team.

[Mr. Tibbs]

Regardless of what level he returns to, just getting back on the court and playing again would be such a huge accomplishment and something to get excited about. Pulling for the kid.

[Dan Z]

What I mean is that Lonzo will mostly likely continue to say that he's coming back and done everything that's asked of him. That won't effect the arbiter deciding on the medical exception?

The arbiter could look at all the facts and rule that he's done regardless of whatever Lonzo says, but I think there's enough of a "glimmer of hope" that he'll come back that the ruling might not be a definitive yes.

I think those things are true regardless of what Lonzo says. Lonzo's opinion about his prognosis probably isn't particularly relevant. A board certified physician looks at his medicals and makes a decision. I'm not sure Lonzo saying "well I had this surgery, and I'm doing the prescribed PT" has a lot of meaning to a physician about likelihood of returning to capable play.

I think they would lean on what is the typical prognosis of this injury and what is the history of the injury. I'm not saying those things amount to yes we'd win or no we'd lose outcome, but I don't think Lonzo opining on his own ability at a point where he clearly cannot play today is all that meaningful one way or the other.

It's also worth noting that this doesn't have to be "Lonzo can't ever play again beyond a shadow of a doubt" type of situation. If it's deemed that he's unlikely to ever be able to play again, they can grant the Bulls the relief, and if Lonzo does play, we just get the money added back on to the books.

I agree that whatever Lonzo says won't sway a physician much, but they do have to talk to him. They can ask him how he feels when they touch his knee or ask him how he's moving around day-to-day. That kind of stuff. I'm not saying he'd lie, but he might tell them that he's improving (and probably is...but maybe not enough to return or do much).

Additionally, I imagine that Lonzo doesn't want to be released. How will that effect his market value around the league? It might signal to most teams that he's done (which they might think anyway). Either way I think someone will offer him a chance, but what's offered could vary from a small one year deal to something less.

I see that MG88 posted that this is too late and I tend to agree. They might address a medical exception in the off season, but at that point it's possible that both parties decided to wait until the season starts to see how it goes. From there...who knows....but this just keeps being pushed further and further towards the end of his contract.

[Axl Rose]

Regardless of what level he returns to, just getting back on the court and playing again would be such a huge accomplishment and something to get excited about. Pulling for the kid.

Yeah same. The games he played had me as excited to watch the team as the Rose MVP year.

[dougthonus]

I agree that whatever Lonzo says won't sway a physician much, but they do have to talk to him. They can ask him how he feels when they touch his knee or ask him how he's moving around day-to-day. That kind of stuff. I'm not saying he'd lie, but he might tell them that he's improving (and probably is...but maybe not enough to return or do much).

Additionally, I imagine that Lonzo doesn't want to be released. How will that effect his market value around the league? It might signal to most teams that he's done (which they might think anyway). Either way I think someone will offer him a chance, but what's offered could vary from a small one year deal to something less.

I see that MG88 posted that this is too late and I tend to agree. They might address a medical exception in the off season, but at that point it's possible that both parties decided to wait until the season starts to see how it goes. From there...who knows....but this just keeps being pushed further and further towards the end of his contract.

Ignoring whether we'd win or lose (because really, I have no idea, I could see either case), I agree that we're unlikely to try unless it's pretty definitively clear wed' win.

Ie, if we get to camp and Lonzo can't run or play effectively, then you might as well give it a shot, because even if he comes back it won't be meaningfully this year, and if he comes back a year later, there is no penalty for you anyway.

But we're past the point where any meaningful value can be achieved here anyway. We'd have had to have done it last year, so we'd start this year with the money off the books when free agency hits. Even if successful now we won't have hte money gone in time for it to matter.