League Circles wrote:MikeDC wrote:I get why people want to get a picture of what "trade for a good return" looks like, but let's also be realistic about what "keep" AC looks like.
With Caruso, we're a mediocre team. Without Caruso we're a mediocre team. He's 6th in minutes played. We're not going to fall apart without him. With him, he's not going to lead us anywhere special.
Keep him and we are committing to more of the same both for the rest of this year and next year. Then, at the end of next season, he's a 30 year old FA who's probably out the door. Or we overpay to re-sign him.
Either way this is a clear case where "Keep" doesn't seem all that great. So the question is do you move a year early or a year late?
Well, obviously you move early.
1. With Coby/Zach/Ayo we can afford to lose him and still credibly fill in the guard slots.
2. His value to a contending team as a 29 year old they get for two playoff runs on a team-friendly deal is much higher than it will be as a 30 year old they get for one and then have to worry about re-signing.
From that perspective, a "good return" is relative. The return we get this year is going to be obviously better than the return we'd get by waiting. This is the high point of his value in trade. The opportunity cost of losing him is minimal.
Put all that together and this is the most obvious and easiest question to answer about the Bulls. Of course you trade him!
Idk, what you're saying makes sense, but the return now may be less desirable than re-signing him in summer 2025, which may very well not require a deal above the full MLE. So if it's between that and getting, say, a late 2024 first (and bad matching salary), I'd keep him and roll the dice.
It's always tricky when people assess value in terms of draft capital because it ignores the never-irrelevant matching salary that would be coming back, with all the pros and cons associated with the players making that salary.
Why do you think he would re-sign here for less than the MLE? That seems really optimistic to me. He's generally accepted to be the best backcourt defender in the league. He's going to get automatic MLEs offers from every good team unless he totally falls apart.
And that's the obvious counterpoint. Do we want to be sitting on the risk of the front end of a sizable deal for a 31 year old guard who's constantly getting injured? That's the kind of chance you might reasonably take if you're a contending team and think Caruso could make you a champion. It's not the kind of chance you take if you reasonably assess that he might take you from a 40 win team to a 42 win team. Objectively, his next contract bears significant risk.
