Alex Caruso: Do you want too keep him or trade him for a good return?

[sco]

Just wondering how folks see AC's role going forward here:

One the one hand, he's become one of the elite 3-D players in the league. He's taking almost 4 3pt shots per game and making them at 42%. His defensive leadership is probably a bigger part of our defensive success this season than Billy's schemes.

On the other hand, in terms of interest around the league, he's probably the anti-Zach. I think we could get a young player with potential and a mid-1st for him. He turns 30 next month and isn't the most durable guy (of course I made a similar mistake when we traded Butler).

While I know the answer for these sorts of questions is always, it depends, I thought I'd put this out there.

[coldfish]

IMO, Caruso's impact goes far beyond the basic box score. He is the QB of the defense. You will hear him calling out defenses both on the court and from the bench. He sets a tone and an example. If you want to develop young players, Alex Caruso is exactly the type of player you want to have around them.

Everyone has their price. Obviously I would trade Caruso for a #1 overall pick or Joel Embiid. Would I trade him for a pick that looked to be a late first? Hells no.

The thread question should define "good" return. I won't even reply to it because good is so subjective.

[burlydee]

The Bulls need to trade Caruso for a young player and a pick. He's excellent but his value will never be higher. It doesn't make sense to keep him when you're playing sub. 500 ball. Next year he's an expiring and the return you can get will drop precipitously.

Caruso for Kuminga and a pick.
Caruso for Giddey and a pick.
Caruso to Philly for 2 picks.
Caruso for Dyson Daniels and a pick.

You get the idea. The Bulls need to add a young player with upside to this roster and Caruso is the best way (perhaps only way) to do it.

[ChettheJet]

He's a good piece for a contending team, especially in the playoffs. He provides a spark off the bench, that playoff team can overcome his absence when he gets that game or two injury because their big names can step up. For the Bulls he's a luxury that maybe takes them from 38 wins to 41.When he gets those nagging injuries the Bulls need Ayo, Carter maybe Terry to step up for those games, not their big names. If they do the Bulls have a chance to win those games, if they don't they lose.

I'm trading him for someone with more potential to be a starter

[greenwing]

Keep him as long as he’s willing to stay here. I would even overpay him when necessary if it would help keep him on the roster. He’s hugely important to team identity and arguably the best defensive guard in the league. If you’re building a contender then he’s a fantastic player to have on your roster.

[chitowndish]

I'd leave it up to him if he's interested in staying I would keep him around because he does make everyone around him better on D and I also just enjoy watching him play so I'd rather keep doing it. He definitely could help out a contender though so if he does want to contend I would trade him to one.

I don't think trading him really gets us good value back though compared to what he does and I think he can help the young guys develop better than they would without him so I'd rather keep him.

[pipfan]

My favorite current Bull, I love having him on the floor. But, we are not getting past the first round this year, and probably not next either. We need developmental minutes for Terry as well.
Get the best package possible-and I say that grudgingly

[League Circles]

Every player in the league has a threshold where you'd trade them. So it always depends on what that is, which cannot be defined by fan speculation.

I'd trade Caruso for a top 5 pick in next summers draft or a player or prospect of equal value, and I consider those to all be unlikely. A nice thing about Caruso is that he can pretty much play with any group of 3 guys and a center. The bad things about him are that he's probably going to command a pay raise in a year and is often banged up, missing games. I think Ayo, who is younger, maybe a little faster with the ball, and cheaper, might be able to take over Caruso's role pretty well if we trade him. I never saw the trio of those two and Carter all being together long term with their contracts and inability to create shots.

[DuckIII]

He’s a guy whose situation is based on what you do with others.

1. Combined with Zach or DDR or Pat does he turn a meh trade of one of those guys into a big time return? You gotta think hard about that.

2. Standing alone can he return one high first rounder or two solid firsts that aren’t well protected? A promising young player and a decent first? Gotta think hard about that. If not, keep him for his veteran leadership.

3. Are you trading, for example, only Zach or only DDR but otherwise intend to stay the course and compete today? Probably would be reluctant to trade Caruso.

4. Are you trading Zach or DDR or both but only for different fitting veteran win now players? Probably would keep Caruso.

As examples. There is a lot more nuance to each potential situation obviously, but the point is what to do with him is based on what happens with others unless he’s worth a significant return by himself which he probably is not.

[Sinistar6]

I would like to know the type of players and first round pick.

Off the top of the done (never skip a Harry Mack video), I’d say Golden State kormiga and their first for AC and filler don’t think GS would do that but just hypothesizing.

[kodo]

I'd trade him but I'd also trade every last player on this team for the right price including White.

However, in ME's shoes if my goals as set by Michael & AK are to win every game possible in 2024, no I'm not trading him for anything reasonable. He's close to irreplaceable on the Bulls because of how the defense is set up.

He's also likely to leave in FA for a playoff situation unless we massively overpay well above market value for him, and that makes no sense for a team competing for the 10th seed.

[step]

He’s a guy whose situation is based on what you do with others.

Precisely.

I think we could get a young player with potential and a mid-1st for him.

We can't even get two firsts for him and I don't think the bar was even set that high (mid firsts). I think our bias for the guy has skewed many people's view of his value.

And in my view I'd happily pay 2 late firsts for him... which makes me wonder why no other contender has done so.

[RSP83]

I'd trade him but I'd also trade every last player on this team for the right price including White.

Why? He's not hurting the team play and contract-wise. Nobody is expecting him to become the franchise player. It'd be nice if we can hold on to our lottery pick that actually pan out.

[RSP83]

AC should be made available, but he should be a sell high. No point of getting late FRP or SRP for him.

I would entertain the idea of him for Kuminga + Moody though.

[League Circles]

Another thing to consider is that every quality player with a year left on his deal like Caruso should be under stronger consideration to trade so you don't risk "losing them for nothing". Definitely doesn't mean you always trade them, but you gotta look long and hard and realize they won't be worth much as they expire. I probably wouldn't sign Caruso to a deal much over the full MLE on this squad, but surely someone will offer him a full 4 year MLE deal in summer 2025.

[League Circles]

No chance on earth is someone giving up a high first round pick for a year of an oft-injured Alex Caruso. That's just not how this league works. Doesn't matter that he'd probably be better than all but about 3 or 4 players in the next draft for another 5 years. It's not a palatable trade for fans of teams with high picks.

[MikeDC]

I get why people want to get a picture of what "trade for a good return" looks like, but let's also be realistic about what "keep" AC looks like.

With Caruso, we're a mediocre team. Without Caruso we're a mediocre team. He's 6th in minutes played. We're not going to fall apart without him. With him, he's not going to lead us anywhere special.

Keep him and we are committing to more of the same both for the rest of this year and next year. Then, at the end of next season, he's a 30 year old FA who's probably out the door. Or we overpay to re-sign him.

Either way this is a clear case where "Keep" doesn't seem all that great. So the question is do you move a year early or a year late?

Well, obviously you move early.
1. With Coby/Zach/Ayo we can afford to lose him and still credibly fill in the guard slots.
2. His value to a contending team as a 29 year old they get for two playoff runs on a team-friendly deal is much higher than it will be as a 30 year old they get for one and then have to worry about re-signing.

From that perspective, a "good return" is relative. The return we get this year is going to be obviously better than the return we'd get by waiting. This is the high point of his value in trade. The opportunity cost of losing him is minimal.

Put all that together and this is the most obvious and easiest question to answer about the Bulls. Of course you trade him!

[FriedRise]

If there's a time to trade him, it's now. His value seems to be at the highest, and contenders can always use a guy like him. I'd target a struggling contender like the Bucks or Sixers who probably would pay for a low salary, high impact player like him.

I of course wouldn't mind it if he stays in Chicago. He's been such a critical mentor to our young guys. I think a lot of the defensive improvements we're seeing from Coby, Pat, Ayo, even Dalen Terry can be attribute to Caruso's leadership.

[League Circles]

I get why people want to get a picture of what "trade for a good return" looks like, but let's also be realistic about what "keep" AC looks like.

With Caruso, we're a mediocre team. Without Caruso we're a mediocre team. He's 6th in minutes played. We're not going to fall apart without him. With him, he's not going to lead us anywhere special.

Keep him and we are committing to more of the same both for the rest of this year and next year. Then, at the end of next season, he's a 30 year old FA who's probably out the door. Or we overpay to re-sign him.

Either way this is a clear case where "Keep" doesn't seem all that great. So the question is do you move a year early or a year late?

Well, obviously you move early.
1. With Coby/Zach/Ayo we can afford to lose him and still credibly fill in the guard slots.
2. His value to a contending team as a 29 year old they get for two playoff runs on a team-friendly deal is much higher than it will be as a 30 year old they get for one and then have to worry about re-signing.

From that perspective, a "good return" is relative. The return we get this year is going to be obviously better than the return we'd get by waiting. This is the high point of his value in trade. The opportunity cost of losing him is minimal.

Put all that together and this is the most obvious and easiest question to answer about the Bulls. Of course you trade him!

Idk, what you're saying makes sense, but the return now may be less desirable than re-signing him in summer 2025, which may very well not require a deal above the full MLE. So if it's between that and getting, say, a late 2024 first (and bad matching salary), I'd keep him and roll the dice.

It's always tricky when people assess value in terms of draft capital because it ignores the never-irrelevant matching salary that would be coming back, with all the pros and cons associated with the players making that salary.

[sco]

I get why people want to get a picture of what "trade for a good return" looks like, but let's also be realistic about what "keep" AC looks like.

With Caruso, we're a mediocre team. Without Caruso we're a mediocre team. He's 6th in minutes played. We're not going to fall apart without him. With him, he's not going to lead us anywhere special.

Keep him and we are committing to more of the same both for the rest of this year and next year. Then, at the end of next season, he's a 30 year old FA who's probably out the door. Or we overpay to re-sign him.

Either way this is a clear case where "Keep" doesn't seem all that great. So the question is do you move a year early or a year late?

Well, obviously you move early.
1. With Coby/Zach/Ayo we can afford to lose him and still credibly fill in the guard slots.
2. His value to a contending team as a 29 year old they get for two playoff runs on a team-friendly deal is much higher than it will be as a 30 year old they get for one and then have to worry about re-signing.

From that perspective, a "good return" is relative. The return we get this year is going to be obviously better than the return we'd get by waiting. This is the high point of his value in trade. The opportunity cost of losing him is minimal.

Put all that together and this is the most obvious and easiest question to answer about the Bulls. Of course you trade him!

Idk, what you're saying makes sense, but the return now may be less desirable than re-signing him in summer 2025, which may very well not require a deal above the full MLE. So if it's between that and getting, say, a late 2024 first (and bad matching salary), I'd keep him and roll the dice.

It's always tricky when people assess value in terms of draft capital because it ignores the never-irrelevant matching salary that would be coming back, with all the pros and cons associated with the players making that salary.

I do wonder what his next deal looks like. IMO his 3pt shooting and general offensive positive impact (compared to years past), has elevated his value to $15M+.

I disgree with the notion that we're mediocre without AC. IMO, without him we might be at 50% of our win count. His impact on the rest of the team, especially guys like Pat and Coby, is under appreciated. Also, Ayo has not played like even a rotation level player this or last year. I know there is a lot of homer love for Ayo, but let's not say we have real guard depth if we need to include Ayo.