Update PG 4: Patrick Williams OUT For Season

[League Circles]

Well I think we need to see the Drummond/Vucevic pairing up front the rest of the year. They’ve done well and beating up Demar and Caruso at PF makes no sense.

Very odd the FO didn’t attempt to acquire a PF at the deadline. Can you imagine if Vuc or Drummond miss any games?

I think for better or worse, if there are further injuries they want to see more Phillips, Terry, and Sanogo. I'm somewhat interested in seeing Sanogo too. Imagine how flexible we could be if he showed he could really play and we re-sign Drummond and they could split the C spot for the next 3 years for like 5-6 mil total. I'm not high on Phillips but haven't got a chance to see him much and I know he's supposed to be quite an athlete. I agree I don't want to see Caruso and Demar at the 4 much at all.

[GoBlue72391]

Not surprising as an outcome after the words "bone edema" were printed. I noted that it seems like an injury most likely to take him out for the season and the Bulls did a disservice by saying they encourage active rest and will reevaluate in 2 weeks.

WTF is wrong with their PR department when it comes to injuries?

And WTF is wrong with their medical and training staff that they prescribed “active” rest for a stress reaction?

And WTF does "active rest" even mean? That's nonsensical. It'd be like telling someone to engage in "awakened sleep."

[GoBlue72391]

Hopefully he'll be back within a couple years.

He and Lonzo are hooping it up on a big open farm all happy and healthy with all the other injured Bulls of seasons past.

[GoBlue72391]

Well I think we need to see the Drummond/Vucevic pairing up front the rest of the year. They’ve done well and beating up Demar and Caruso at PF makes no sense.

Very odd the FO didn’t attempt to acquire a PF at the deadline. Can you imagine if Vuc or Drummond miss any games?

I think for better or worse, if there are further injuries they want to see more Phillips, Terry, and Sanogo. I'm somewhat interested in seeing Sanogo too. Imagine how flexible we could be if he showed he could really play and we re-sign Drummond and they could split the C spot for the next 3 years for like 5-6 mil total. I'm not high on Phillips but haven't got a chance to see him much and I know he's supposed to be quite an athlete. I agree I don't want to see Caruso and Demar at the 4 much at all.

If they wanted to see Sanogo they would have seen him by now. There's been ample opportunity for him to play and they chose 6'4" Terry Taylor to play C over Sanogo.

[DuckIII]

Well I think we need to see the Drummond/Vucevic pairing up front the rest of the year. They’ve done well and beating up Demar and Caruso at PF makes no sense.

Very odd the FO didn’t attempt to acquire a PF at the deadline. Can you imagine if Vuc or Drummond miss any games?

I think for better or worse, if there are further injuries they want to see more Phillips, Terry, and Sanogo. I'm somewhat interested in seeing Sanogo too. Imagine how flexible we could be if he showed he could really play and we re-sign Drummond and they could split the C spot for the next 3 years for like 5-6 mil total. I'm not high on Phillips but haven't got a chance to see him much and I know he's supposed to be quite an athlete. I agree I don't want to see Caruso and Demar at the 4 much at all.

If they wanted to see Sanogo they would have seen him by now. There's been ample opportunity for him to play and they chose 6'4" Terry Taylor to play C over Sanogo.

It’s odd, right? It’s almost like they quickly signed an undrafted center lacking both an NBA physical profile and NBA athleticism who also has no redeeming NBA skills whatsoever.

No one saw that coming except for everyone but AK.

[kodo]

I wouldn't entirely rule out the FO giving him a big contract for 4 years anyway. It makes no sense, but neither did giving Vuc $20M for 3 years before FA even started (so we did not even see the competing offers).

What Vuc & Pat have in common is that these are AK's big moves, and he has to act like they were genius moves.

[HoopsterJones]

Bust. Some here wanted to pay this guy 25+ million a year.

[MikeDC]

Not surprising as an outcome after the words "bone edema" were printed. I noted that it seems like an injury most likely to take him out for the season and the Bulls did a disservice by saying they encourage active rest and will reevaluate in 2 weeks.

WTF is wrong with their PR department when it comes to injuries?

And WTF is wrong with their medical and training staff that they prescribed “active” rest for a stress reaction?

I mean you gotta try and stay in shape. I don't blame the medical staff, the right thing is to shut him down and let it heal. This is the type of thing that could easily ruin his entire career if it turns into a chronic issue.

As Doug noted, the problem was with the PR around it. When you research "bone edema" the range of outcomes is a few weeks to a few months or more. And the few months or more seems to be the outcome for high level athletes that are pounding their bones for a living.

How do you guys even get to blaming "PR" for that?

1. Whoever wrote that press release is just reporting what the doctors told him. If they said "active rest" it was the medical staff that said the direct opposite of "shut him down and let it heal".

2. On top of that blindingly obvious fact, the Bulls medical staff has a documented history or prescribing "active rest" for players with bone injuries. That is exactly the phrase they used with Luol Deng back in 2009 after Deng, quite correctly, thought it was ludicrous to run on a broken leg and got a second opinion on a stress fracture.

Here's a link for those too young to know or who just don't wanna remember.
http://www.espn.com/chicago/columns/blog/_/post/4983605/name/silverman

[League Circles]

I think for better or worse, if there are further injuries they want to see more Phillips, Terry, and Sanogo. I'm somewhat interested in seeing Sanogo too. Imagine how flexible we could be if he showed he could really play and we re-sign Drummond and they could split the C spot for the next 3 years for like 5-6 mil total. I'm not high on Phillips but haven't got a chance to see him much and I know he's supposed to be quite an athlete. I agree I don't want to see Caruso and Demar at the 4 much at all.

If they wanted to see Sanogo they would have seen him by now. There's been ample opportunity for him to play and they chose 6'4" Terry Taylor to play C over Sanogo.

It’s odd, right? It’s almost like they quickly signed an undrafted center lacking both an NBA physical profile and NBA athleticism who also has no redeeming NBA skills whatsoever.

No one saw that coming except for everyone but AK.

I mean, Sanogo and Taylor have played like 20 minutes each at C this year or something like that. Sanogo is strong as an ox and I believe has been successful in ncaa and g league. I'd like to see what he can do, even moreso frankly than Terry, Phillips, or Taylor.

[eierluke]

I stated on and on that we should not resign him next summer (don't resign expensive role players, before stars are abourd)
Sad for PWill, but a chance for the Bulls, if only I could be sure that AK will no extend him now (though they still will find a way to do stupid things ...)

[HomoSapien]

Regardless of what anyone thinks about Sanogo we just can’t trot out a 6’4” center. That’s a losing strategy (though we seem to embrace those). Sanogo has basically played one game and recorded 8 points and 6 rebounds in 9 minutes. Chances are he’s not a real NBA caliber player, but something can be said about just having size. I can live with Terry getting burn at the 4, but it’s just embarrassing when we let him play the 5. I don’t get what we are doing or why we constructed the roster this way. We feel like a JV team.

[Dan Z]

Regardless of what anyone thinks about Sanogo we just can’t trot out a 6’4” center. That’s a losing strategy (though we seem to embrace those). Sanogo has basically played one game and recorded 8 points and 6 rebounds in 9 minutes. Chances are he’s not a real NBA caliber player, but something can be said about just having size. I can live with Terry getting burn at the 4, but it’s just embarrassing when we let him play the 5. I don’t get what we are doing or why we constructed the roster this way. We feel like a JV team.

I have no idea if Sanogo is NBA level or not because he hasn't played much in the NBA. The team is going nowhere this season so why not give him a try? If it doesn't work out he can always go back to the G League.

It doesn't make sense to play Vucevic heavy minutes where he'll either wear out or break down.

[erlim]

If we resign him, it better be at a seriously steep discount value.

[nekorajo]

Pat is not getting $20M on this market, unless it's the Jabari Parker contract (1y guaranteed).

He's "worth" $5M-8M after this injury. Anything more is a leap of faith.

I think $12M is realistic given AKME will want to keep their golden boy. Utah, Toronto, Philly, Detroit, Orlando would be in position to pay him more. Philly and Orlando will not spend their cap on an unproven role-player, but the other 3 may have nothing to lose (though DET will be more ambitious).

You can't help but kind of laugh at AK's depth chart though. He had the deadline and waiver wires to atleast not gamble on this PF situation, seeing as 2 of his only "power" forwards were dealing with injuries. It's almost comical at this point, seeing every single one of his risky gambles back-fire.

OTOH, Phillips will play.

I was just thinking this. AK has been extremely unlucky. Given that he also sucks at building a balanced roster, how much longer can he survive?

[DuckIII]

If we resign him, it better be at a seriously steep discount value.

In the big picture this is good news for the Bulls. It kills Pat’s feee agency and is highly likely to result in the QO to give another year to firm up an opinion on his game and value, or a sweetheart deal because Pat opts to take a few years of lower guaranteed money.

The only bad news in the long view is that to the extent there was an opportunity to include him to sweeten a larger deal this summer, that is now pretty much off the table.

[DuckIII]

Pat is not getting $20M on this market, unless it's the Jabari Parker contract (1y guaranteed).

He's "worth" $5M-8M after this injury. Anything more is a leap of faith.

I think $12M is realistic given AKME will want to keep their golden boy. Utah, Toronto, Philly, Detroit, Orlando would be in position to pay him more. Philly and Orlando will not spend their cap on an unproven role-player, but the other 3 may have nothing to lose (though DET will be more ambitious).

You can't help but kind of laugh at AK's depth chart though. He had the deadline and waiver wires to atleast not gamble on this PF situation, seeing as 2 of his only "power" forwards were dealing with injuries. It's almost comical at this point, seeing every single one of his risky gambles back-fire.

OTOH, Phillips will play.

I was just thinking this. AK has been extremely unlucky. Given that he also sucks at building a balanced roster, how much longer can he survive?

Don’t get excited. As I noted earlier, regardless of Pat’s injury I project a big downturn in winning this season. You’d like to think this would help motivate AK’s firing.

But with this ownership group it’s more likely the injuries mask his incompetence and, ironically, buy him more time.

[League Circles]

Regardless of what anyone thinks about Sanogo we just can’t trot out a 6’4” center. That’s a losing strategy (though we seem to embrace those). Sanogo has basically played one game and recorded 8 points and 6 rebounds in 9 minutes. Chances are he’s not a real NBA caliber player, but something can be said about just having size. I can live with Terry getting burn at the 4, but it’s just embarrassing when we let him play the 5. I don’t get what we are doing or why we constructed the roster this way. We feel like a JV team.

My guess is that with these low level young prospects, they have a (wise IMO) strategy where they will prioritize giving guys a chance based on who they need to make a decision on first. In this case, it's really Taylor and Terry who need to be decided on first. Taylor because he's not guaranteed for next year and Terry cause we have to decide on his 5.4 million dollar 4th year option at the start of next season. I'd guess both of these guys are currently not projected to be kept by the Bulls. Taylor cause he doesn't have enough promise to justify a roster spot for next year, and Terry cause he simply hasn't shown enough improvement to justify a not-insignificant 5.4 million dollar salary in 2025-26. I suspect he'll be getting regular burn the rest of the season to make sure that their inclination to decline his 4th year option isn't going to blow up in their face by him becoming a great player elsewhere.

[dougthonus]

As Doug noted, the problem was with the PR around it. When you research "bone edema" the range of outcomes is a few weeks to a few months or more. And the few months or more seems to be the outcome for high level athletes that are pounding their bones for a living.

The range I found was 3 months to 2 years. I didn't find anything that said "weeks".

[dougthonus]

In the big picture this is good news for the Bulls. It kills Pat’s feee agency and is highly likely to result in the QO to give another year to firm up an opinion on his game and value, or a sweetheart deal because Pat opts to take a few years of lower guaranteed money.

The only bad news in the long view is that to the extent there was an opportunity to include him to sweeten a larger deal this summer, that is now pretty much off the table.

NBA contracts are far from a perfect market, but his next contract will be given based on his market value factoring in all known risks and rewards. If you knew he was going to be much better in the future and you knew this injury wouldn't hamper him at all, then there would be no discount.

If he ends up on a cheap deal it will be because decision makers perceive there to be real risk. From a managerial perspective, Pat's now a high risk asset. High risk assets sometimes pay off in the way you state, but you always have the opportunity to take on high risk assets every year in many forms.

His outcomes having much greater variability and thus his price tag being cheaper is not a benefit in and of itself. It's only a benefit if the good outcomes happen despite the increased risks, but there's no reason to assume that. If that were true, then there would be no risks to begin with and the contract wouldn't be less (unless the risks were not real but imagined due to bias or something else).

[donaldtrump_00]

Bulls will be strong next season. P.will is going to figure his role out. Lavine will be traded. Derozan will be back. Lonzo will be back. There going to get a steal draft pick. Drummond will be back. Coby and ayo will be a bit better. They suprise the NBA and become a top 5 team