The Cap and Luxury Tax situation in 2024

[leo921]

my guess as to what happens in offseason

DDR - Its obvious that AKME is going to resign him, the smart thing to do is a 1 yr deal in the 25m to 28m range (he makes 28m and doubt they sign him for less) this way he expires with Ball and we can get some cap room. the dumb more then likely thing AKME will do is resign him for 2 years so he expires with Vuc.

Drummond - I would like to resign him for 2-3 years for 4-5m a year

Williams - We should resign him def not for rookie max, would be fine with something like 5/125 and make it a declining contract so as the cap goes up over the years his contract becomes less and less of the cap room.

Lavine - We should trade him in offseason but might have to wait til next season and hope he gets off to a hot start to drum up more trade interest.

Hindsight is 20/20 but it was dumb of AKME to only sign Ayo/White to 3 year contracts, it was pretty clear that they where young developing players who still had room for improvement. Now they are only signed for 2 more years after this and going to cost way more to resign.

[HomoSapien]

Luxury Tax line is estimated to be $172m (it's $165 right now). We have about $130m in guaranteed salary. Only $350K of Terry Taylor's contract is guaranteed, which frees up another $1.8 mill bringing us to about $128m in guaranteed salary.

So here's the best-case scenario:

Resign DeRozan - 2-year - contract at $26m per year.
Resign Patrick Williams at qualifying offer $12.97m
Resign Drummond at the bi-annual exception 2-years $4.5m

There's a lot of assumptions here:

1.) DeRozan would have to accept a slight reduction from his current salary.
2.) Patrick Williams would have to accept the Q/O. If he doesn't come back this season or if he is in and out of the rotation, I think there's a solid chance this happens. It allows him to prove he deserves a big deal and doesn't lock him into something long-term at a discount.
3.) This is an improvement over Drummond's current contract, but he might be playing himself into MLE territory.

Here's what would help:

1.) If we can offload Jevon Carter.
2.) If we can convince DeRozan to take less for the good of the team or at least strong-arm him to accept market value, which ideally will be less than what he currently is making.
3.) Offloading Dalen Terry if we don't believe in his development.

[WindyCityBorn]

This is one of the reasons why dumping Lavine for a bunch of expiring contracts wasn't as bad as people thought. This team has very little flexibility.

Why should we trust AK to use cap space wisely? He sucks at that too.

[WindyCityBorn]

my guess as to what happens in offseason

DDR - Its obvious that AKME is going to resign him, the smart thing to do is a 1 yr deal in the 25m to 28m range (he makes 28m and doubt they sign him for less) this way he expires with Ball and we can get some cap room. the dumb more then likely thing AKME will do is resign him for 2 years so he expires with Vuc.

Drummond - I would like to resign him for 2-3 years for 4-5m a year

Williams - We should resign him def not for rookie max, would be fine with something like 5/125 and make it a declining contract so as the cap goes up over the years his contract becomes less and less of the cap room.

Lavine - We should trade him in offseason but might have to wait til next season and hope he gets off to a hot start to drum up more trade interest.

Hindsight is 20/20 but it was dumb of AKME to only sign Ayo/White to 3 year contracts, it was pretty clear that they where young developing players who still had room for improvement. Now they are only signed for 2 more years after this and going to cost way more to resign.

You can forget about signing Drummond for $5 million. Try double that.

[WindyCityBorn]

Luxury Tax line is estimated to be $172m (it's $165 right now). We have about $130m in guaranteed salary. Only $350K of Terry Taylor's contract is guaranteed, which frees up another $1.8 mill bringing us to about $128m in guaranteed salary.

So here's the best-case scenario:

Resign DeRozan - 2-year - contract at $26m per year.
Resign Patrick Williams at qualifying offer $12.97m
Resign Drummond at the bi-annual exception 2-years $4.5m

There's a lot of assumptions here:

1.) DeRozan would have to accept a slight reduction from his current salary.
2.) Patrick Williams would have to accept the Q/O. If he doesn't come back this season or if he is in and out of the rotation, I think there's a solid chance this happens. It allows him to prove he deserves a big deal and doesn't lock him into something long-term at a discount.
3.) This is an improvement over Drummond's current contract, but he might be playing himself into MLE territory.

Here's what would help:

1.) If we can offload Jevon Carter.
2.) If we can convince DeRozan to take less for the good of the team or at least strong-arm him to accept market value, which ideally will be less than what he currently is making.
3.) Offloading Dalen Terry if we don't believe in his development.

Pat is not taking the qualifying offer unless he has a horrible finish to the season.

[HomoSapien]

Luxury Tax line is estimated to be $172m (it's $165 right now). We have about $130m in guaranteed salary. Only $350K of Terry Taylor's contract is guaranteed, which frees up another $1.8 mill bringing us to about $128m in guaranteed salary.

So here's the best-case scenario:

Resign DeRozan - 2-year - contract at $26m per year.
Resign Patrick Williams at qualifying offer $12.97m
Resign Drummond at the bi-annual exception 2-years $4.5m

There's a lot of assumptions here:

1.) DeRozan would have to accept a slight reduction from his current salary.
2.) Patrick Williams would have to accept the Q/O. If he doesn't come back this season or if he is in and out of the rotation, I think there's a solid chance this happens. It allows him to prove he deserves a big deal and doesn't lock him into something long-term at a discount.
3.) This is an improvement over Drummond's current contract, but he might be playing himself into MLE territory.

Here's what would help:

1.) If we can offload Jevon Carter.
2.) If we can convince DeRozan to take less for the good of the team or at least strong-arm him to accept market value, which ideally will be less than what he currently is making.
3.) Offloading Dalen Terry if we don't believe in his development.

Pat is not taking the qualifying offer unless he has a horrible finish to the season.

He’s completely on that trajectory unless he gets healthy.

[Rose2Boozer]

I think AKME is counting on being able to dump Lavine this coming off season, and the medical retirement of Ball. They will be wrong on both players. AKME won't be able to trade Lavine, and Ball won't start running until training camp. I love it. The days of running away from the future are over. AKME will be forced to choose a definitive direction beyond competitive continuity.

[Red8911]

This is one of the reasons why dumping Lavine for a bunch of expiring contracts wasn't as bad as people thought. This team has very little flexibility.

In the offseason you can still trade LaVine to a team with cap space. LaVine may very well still be a Detroit Piston on opening night in 2024. They'll have cap space to absorb him into.

Would have been easier for Detroit to have done it now so they can trade their expirings to make it work. Now without Bogdanovic or Harris how will they match contracts to get Zach ?

[Guru]

Joe Cowley questioned AKME about the cap and luxury tax situation going forward and made him look a bit foolish. He questioned how AK intendsmto make it work, knowing that the Reinsdorf's won't pay the luxury tax for a non-contender. The 2024-25 cap will be approx 141m and luxury tax will be 171m.

We all know AK wants to resign DeMar. He also wants to resign PWill. Without these guys, the Bulls are already at 130m next year. It's safe to say that together, these guys will net around 35-40m total, give or take. This pushes them right up to the tax without considering any other moves. It may push them into the tax.

In what world is this a sound idea? They are essentially running the exact same team back that has failed multiple times before. It gives them no room to sign additional talent. Is their plan to pray that Lonzo has a medical retirement? I just don't understand the thought process here. Maybe I'm missing something...

This is the smart thing to do....or you lose the asset. It's really the only way.

[2weekswithpay]

This is one of the reasons why dumping Lavine for a bunch of expiring contracts wasn't as bad as people thought. This team has very little flexibility.

In the offseason you can still trade LaVine to a team with cap space. LaVine may very well still be a Detroit Piston on opening night in 2024. They'll have cap space to absorb him into.

Would have been easier for Detroit to have done it now so they can trade their expirings to make it work. Now without Bogdanovic or Harris how will they match contracts to get Zach ?

Detroit will have 70M in cap this summer. They have enough room to absorb Zach's contract if they want to.

[Guru]

Because the majority on this side keep throwing 'we'll resign Demar on a team friendly deal' like anything AKME has shown in the past shows he'd able to negotiate that.

Vuc on a very good deal
Great deals for Coby-Drummond-Caruso

[Guru]

This is one of the reasons why dumping Lavine for a bunch of expiring contracts wasn't as bad as people thought. This team has very little flexibility.

That Pistons trade would have netted 38 million in expiring contracts and a 20ppg player to continue to try to win this year.

[step]

Because the majority on this side keep throwing 'we'll resign Demar on a team friendly deal' like anything AKME has shown in the past shows he'd able to negotiate that.

Vuc on a very good deal
Great deals for Coby-Drummond-Caruso

Vuc is not on a good deal, there are a number of existing threads and discussions on that. Again, who were we bidding against here?
Caruso was a MLE signing.
Coby was paid 'sound' value and now has vastly improved. It's not like it was a shrewd find, it was an extension of our own player using bird rights.
The initial S&T for Demar was a major overpay given the 'market' competition was not there. It's just fortunate he's outplayed said deal.
The Drummond signing was a nice find and is funnily enough a big massive example of why Vuc's deal is so horrendous.

[MikeDC]

The best player that might actually be available in FA is probably Derozan.

Most likely,
Conley - stays with his top WC team
Holiday - stays with BOS
Maxey - Sixers control
Quickley - Toronto control
Russell - takes player option to stay in LA
Hield - I assume Sixers didn't trade for him to let him walk
OG - NY didn't trade for him to let him walk
PG13 - stays in LA
Siakam - Pacers didn't trade for him to let him walk
Tobias Harris - Morey most likely S&Ts him vs letting him walk

You don't really acquire expiring players in FA anymore, you first trade for them with assets and then you resign them. Eg, Dallas traded for Kyrie, then resigned him.

And the Bulls have failed to make any trades so we can expect nothing to happen in FA other than resigning our own players or minor moves like Jevon & Torrey.
Free agency starts at the trade deadline.

The bolded part also indicates that no team was super excited about signing DeRozan. Nobody was willing to go the Kyrie/Siakam route of trading and then re-signing.

[ScrantonBulls]

Because the majority on this side keep throwing 'we'll resign Demar on a team friendly deal' like anything AKME has shown in the past shows he'd able to negotiate that.

Vuc on a very good deal
Great deals for Coby-Drummond-Caruso

I know you try your best to counteract the pessism here by being overly positive about the team, but there's no need to lie about the Vuc contract. That isn't a "very good deal". In what world is an unmovable contract a "very good deal"?

[Guru]

Because the majority on this side keep throwing 'we'll resign Demar on a team friendly deal' like anything AKME has shown in the past shows he'd able to negotiate that.

Vuc on a very good deal
Great deals for Coby-Drummond-Caruso

I know you try your best to counteract the pessism here by being overly positive about the team, but there's no need to lie about the Vuc contract. That isn't a "very good deal". In what world is an unmovable contract a "very good deal"?

Good deal.

[kulaz3000]

Luxury Tax line is estimated to be $172m (it's $165 right now). We have about $130m in guaranteed salary. Only $350K of Terry Taylor's contract is guaranteed, which frees up another $1.8 mill bringing us to about $128m in guaranteed salary.

So here's the best-case scenario:

Resign DeRozan - 2-year - contract at $26m per year.
Resign Patrick Williams at qualifying offer $12.97m
Resign Drummond at the bi-annual exception 2-years $4.5m

There's a lot of assumptions here:

1.) DeRozan would have to accept a slight reduction from his current salary.
2.) Patrick Williams would have to accept the Q/O. If he doesn't come back this season or if he is in and out of the rotation, I think there's a solid chance this happens. It allows him to prove he deserves a big deal and doesn't lock him into something long-term at a discount.
3.) This is an improvement over Drummond's current contract, but he might be playing himself into MLE territory.

Here's what would help:

1.) If we can offload Jevon Carter.
2.) If we can convince DeRozan to take less for the good of the team or at least strong-arm him to accept market value, which ideally will be less than what he currently is making.
3.) Offloading Dalen Terry if we don't believe in his development.

Pat is not taking the qualifying offer unless he has a horrible finish to the season.

I wouldn't be so sure about that. The Bulls made him an offer, but he and his representatives wanted more. He may just try to bet on himself again, if the Bulls stand pat or close to what they offered him last off season.

[Bandit King]

We keeping deebo until he cashing his retirement fund!!!

[sco]

I went to the Capulator site and it seems on the fritz when I tried to make mods for the Bulls. Anyone else having trouble there?

I just wondered if there is a scenario that keeps Zach and Pat, but frees up enough space via not resigning Demar, medically retiring Ball, trading guys other than Coby, Ayo and AC who are tradeable without giving us assets to dump (i.e. not Vuc), where we end-up with enough cap space to sign a MAX level contract?

[dougthonus]

Given the non-moves we made, it’s imperative to keep Drummomd. The team is significantly worse without him and we supposedly passed up draft capital to keep him. If the intention isn’t to resign him, we needed to make a trade.

Problem is without a medical retirement for Lonzo I don’t think they can re-sign DDR, PWill and Drummond and remain under the tax.

Not sure Drummond is going to impact that situation much if any. His market was "quality player for a vet min contract" not "quality player I want to pay a lot of money to".