The Cap and Luxury Tax situation in 2024

[dougthonus]

I'd be with you here if it were as simple as "he's been out 2.5 years as a result of a single injury," but I think some of the issue here is there seems to have been a ton of diagnostic confusion about what was actually wrong and then sort of just going in and cleaning up what they could find without really knowing if the conditions being treated were the actual cause of his pain. Supposedly this last surgery was done as a result of finally figuring out what was wrong and doing the procedure that is appropriate in response to it. If true, you can kind of throw the first 1.5 years and procedures out the window, because they don't appear to have actually been treatments for the injury he suffered.

Your description of this would imply that they just screwed around for a year and a half doing the wrong thing, and if they had this done right away he'd probably already be back.

No one has had a cartilage transplant and come back and played in the NBA. Lonzo will be the first if he has a successful recovery. It's a more experimental procedure used as a last ditch effort when everything fails, not a standard treatment that we just screwed up and should have done earlier.

Interestingly, it looks like the Bulls can waive/stretch Lonzo and then subsequently still get medical retirement, as long as they apply for the medical retirement during the original term of the contract.

Yeah, what I meant is if they don't get medical retirement, waiving and stretching him this year is 3 years instead of 5 years. If they did it last year, he'd have been on the books for the next 5 though not sure if they need to do the full amount of years now that I type it out or if they just have the option to go up to 5 as a max.

[jnrjr79]

I'd be with you here if it were as simple as "he's been out 2.5 years as a result of a single injury," but I think some of the issue here is there seems to have been a ton of diagnostic confusion about what was actually wrong and then sort of just going in and cleaning up what they could find without really knowing if the conditions being treated were the actual cause of his pain. Supposedly this last surgery was done as a result of finally figuring out what was wrong and doing the procedure that is appropriate in response to it. If true, you can kind of throw the first 1.5 years and procedures out the window, because they don't appear to have actually been treatments for the injury he suffered.

Your description of this would imply that they just screwed around for a year and a half doing the wrong thing, and if they had this done right away he'd probably already be back.

No one has had a cartilage transplant and come back and played in the NBA. Lonzo will be the first if he has a successful recovery. It's a more experimental procedure used as a last ditch effort when everything fails, not a standard treatment that we just screwed up and should have done earlier.

My read is basically that screwing around and doing the wrong thing is exactly what happened. I'm not saying that's from ineptitude, but it was widely reported that the doctors could not figure out why Lonzo was experiencing pain. His ailment just seems tough to diagnose.

I'm with you that his experimental procedure, even if it's now the "right" procedure, may well not lead to a return in the NBA. But I just don't understand how an independent physician could definitively conclude that his career is over based on an "absence of evidence" basis. That seems like it would be pretty irresponsible. It seems much more appropriate to say "it takes a year to recover from this surgery, so we'll need to examine him after that period in order to determine whether he could return." The fact that the surgery is so rare is the reason it would be difficult to declare his career over now - there isn't enough of a data set to be able to conclude "because he's getting this surgery, it's all over," even if we suspect that's where this is headed.

[dougthonus]

My read is basically that screwing around and doing the wrong thing is exactly what happened. I'm not saying that's from ineptitude, but it was widely reported that the doctors could not figure out why Lonzo was experiencing pain. His ailment just seems tough to diagnose.

Yes, but it's not like "aha! we figured it out, we should have done this right away!". This is a procedure you try when nothing else works. It's still labeled as experimental in nature.

I'm with you that his experimental procedure, even if it's now the "right" procedure, may well not lead to a return in the NBA. But I just don't understand how an independent physician could definitively conclude that his career is over based on an "absence of evidence" basis. That seems like it would be pretty irresponsible. It seems much more appropriate to say "it takes a year to recover from this surgery, so we'll need to examine him after that period in order to determine whether he could return." The fact that the surgery is so rare is the reason it would be difficult to declare his career over now - there isn't enough of a data set to be able to conclude "because he's getting this surgery, it's all over," even if we suspect that's where this is headed.

I'm not on the medical board, and certainly there aren't a lot of examples to cite, but basically, look at the argument I made above. Literally no player in the history of the NBA has had a singular injury that was difficult to diagnose or otherwise, that missed the amount of time he missed, and successfully returned to the NBA.

The fact that this literally has never been done ever in the history of the league would seem to be reasonable enough evidence that it might sway some people. It may not sway this one person of course, I agree with you, not definitive, but there is definitely a case when you are down to experimental last ditch efforts that have never shown a return to play possible in the past.

[vxmike]

I'd be with you here if it were as simple as "he's been out 2.5 years as a result of a single injury," but I think some of the issue here is there seems to have been a ton of diagnostic confusion about what was actually wrong and then sort of just going in and cleaning up what they could find without really knowing if the conditions being treated were the actual cause of his pain. Supposedly this last surgery was done as a result of finally figuring out what was wrong and doing the procedure that is appropriate in response to it. If true, you can kind of throw the first 1.5 years and procedures out the window, because they don't appear to have actually been treatments for the injury he suffered.

Your description of this would imply that they just screwed around for a year and a half doing the wrong thing, and if they had this done right away he'd probably already be back.

No one has had a cartilage transplant and come back and played in the NBA. Lonzo will be the first if he has a successful recovery. It's a more experimental procedure used as a last ditch effort when everything fails, not a standard treatment that we just screwed up and should have done earlier.

My read is basically that screwing around and doing the wrong thing is exactly what happened. I'm not saying that's from ineptitude, but it was widely reported that the doctors could not figure out why Lonzo was experiencing pain. His ailment just seems tough to diagnose.

I'm with you that his experimental procedure, even if it's now the "right" procedure, may well not lead to a return in the NBA. But I just don't understand how an independent physician could definitively conclude that his career is over based on an "absence of evidence" basis. That seems like it would be pretty irresponsible. It seems much more appropriate to say "it takes a year to recover from this surgery, so we'll need to examine him after that period in order to determine whether he could return." The fact that the surgery is so rare is the reason it would be difficult to declare his career over now - there isn't enough of a data set to be able to conclude "because he's getting this surgery, it's all over," even if we suspect that's where this is headed.

Well a cartilage transplant has never brought a player back to the NBA. It’s an experimental procedure with limited results. He’s basically a Hail Mary away from needing a knee replacement to walk pain-free. I don’t think medical retirement is a stretch at all.

[WindyCityBorn]

Barring trade or signing players this is our rotation LOL:

C: Vuc, Sanogo
"PF": Phillips, Terry, Taylor
SF: Caruso, Bitim
SG: Zach, Ayo
PG: Coby, Carter, Ball

Just brutal. I guess we'll add our pick to that mess above.

First, I think in that scenario we'd play Ayo at SF and Caruso/Ball at PF. But the follow-up is how much under the cap would we be in that scenario? And what would that go up to if Ball medically retires?

The Iineup you described would get destroyed by any good team. Ayo cannot guard legit sized SFs abd Caruso can’t guard any PF. Ball at PF was gimmick too. And Vuc is a bad defensive anchor. I’m sick of this small ball crap. Get a real frontcourt.

[jnrjr79]

Your description of this would imply that they just screwed around for a year and a half doing the wrong thing, and if they had this done right away he'd probably already be back.

No one has had a cartilage transplant and come back and played in the NBA. Lonzo will be the first if he has a successful recovery. It's a more experimental procedure used as a last ditch effort when everything fails, not a standard treatment that we just screwed up and should have done earlier.

My read is basically that screwing around and doing the wrong thing is exactly what happened. I'm not saying that's from ineptitude, but it was widely reported that the doctors could not figure out why Lonzo was experiencing pain. His ailment just seems tough to diagnose.

I'm with you that his experimental procedure, even if it's now the "right" procedure, may well not lead to a return in the NBA. But I just don't understand how an independent physician could definitively conclude that his career is over based on an "absence of evidence" basis. That seems like it would be pretty irresponsible. It seems much more appropriate to say "it takes a year to recover from this surgery, so we'll need to examine him after that period in order to determine whether he could return." The fact that the surgery is so rare is the reason it would be difficult to declare his career over now - there isn't enough of a data set to be able to conclude "because he's getting this surgery, it's all over," even if we suspect that's where this is headed.

Well a cartilage transplant has never brought a player back to the NBA. It’s an experimental procedure with limited results. He’s basically a Hail Mary away from needing a knee replacement to walk pain-free. I don’t think medical retirement is a stretch at all.

The fact that "it's an experimental procedure with limited results" is exactly why it would be difficult to medically retire Lonzo. If you had dozens of former players who tried it and none could come back, then sure, you might have the historical evidence on your side. Here, we're basically in unknown territory. Nobody has come back successfully after this surgery, but basically nobody has ever had the surgery in the first place, so there isn't much to go on here to conclude to a reasonable degree of medical certainty that Lonzo couldn't, even if we all suspect as much.

[sco]

My read is basically that screwing around and doing the wrong thing is exactly what happened. I'm not saying that's from ineptitude, but it was widely reported that the doctors could not figure out why Lonzo was experiencing pain. His ailment just seems tough to diagnose.

I'm with you that his experimental procedure, even if it's now the "right" procedure, may well not lead to a return in the NBA. But I just don't understand how an independent physician could definitively conclude that his career is over based on an "absence of evidence" basis. That seems like it would be pretty irresponsible. It seems much more appropriate to say "it takes a year to recover from this surgery, so we'll need to examine him after that period in order to determine whether he could return." The fact that the surgery is so rare is the reason it would be difficult to declare his career over now - there isn't enough of a data set to be able to conclude "because he's getting this surgery, it's all over," even if we suspect that's where this is headed.

Well a cartilage transplant has never brought a player back to the NBA. It’s an experimental procedure with limited results. He’s basically a Hail Mary away from needing a knee replacement to walk pain-free. I don’t think medical retirement is a stretch at all.

The fact that "it's an experimental procedure with limited results" is exactly why it would be difficult to medically retire Lonzo. If you had dozens of former players who tried it and none could come back, then sure, you might have the historical evidence on your side. Here, we're basically in unknown territory. Nobody has come back successfully after this surgery, but basically nobody has ever had the surgery in the first place, so there isn't much to go on here to conclude to a reasonable degree of medical certainty that Lonzo couldn't, even if we all suspect as much.

It would seem silly for someone to block it given those facts. It doesn't block Lonzo from coming back. He still gets paid. It only seems to free up cap and roster space for the Bulls.

[jnrjr79]

Well a cartilage transplant has never brought a player back to the NBA. It’s an experimental procedure with limited results. He’s basically a Hail Mary away from needing a knee replacement to walk pain-free. I don’t think medical retirement is a stretch at all.

The fact that "it's an experimental procedure with limited results" is exactly why it would be difficult to medically retire Lonzo. If you had dozens of former players who tried it and none could come back, then sure, you might have the historical evidence on your side. Here, we're basically in unknown territory. Nobody has come back successfully after this surgery, but basically nobody has ever had the surgery in the first place, so there isn't much to go on here to conclude to a reasonable degree of medical certainty that Lonzo couldn't, even if we all suspect as much.

It would seem silly for someone to block it given those facts. It doesn't block Lonzo from coming back. He still gets paid. It only seems to free up cap and roster space for the Bulls.

Whether you want the medical retirement or whether it would benefit the team and not hurt Lonzo is not relevant. The procedure in the CBA is the procedure in the CBA and it requires what it requires.

I, too, would like to have been able to get him off the books this season! But I think the Bulls knew they likely couldn't (and perhaps didn't want to/were happy to see how his rehab went in some unwise hope that he'll come back and help next year, I don't know).

[HomoSapien]

I wouldn't be so sure about that. The Bulls made him an offer, but he and his representatives wanted more. He may just try to bet on himself again, if the Bulls stand pat or close to what they offered him last off season.

And some other team that can’t attract good free agents will definitely take a gamble on him. And the Bulls will have no choice but match.

They definitely will? How do you know?

Not that it means anything, but Hoopshype and Bleacher Report both have Pat ranked outside of the top 30 of 2024 free-agents. Given his lack of clear development and this season currently being derailed by injury, I think we have the makings of a QO situation.

After today’s news I’d say we are either headed to the QO or a team friendly deal.

[WindyCityBorn]

And some other team that can’t attract good free agents will definitely take a gamble on him. And the Bulls will have no choice but match.

They definitely will? How do you know?

Not that it means anything, but Hoopshype and Bleacher Report both have Pat ranked outside of the top 30 of 2024 free-agents. Given his lack of clear development and this season currently being derailed by injury, I think we have the makings of a QO situation.

After today’s news I’d say we are either headed to the QO or a team friendly deal.

Good for Bulls finances. Bad for Bulls basketball. He can officially be labeled injury prone now.

[Dan Z]

And some other team that can’t attract good free agents will definitely take a gamble on him. And the Bulls will have no choice but match.

They definitely will? How do you know?

Not that it means anything, but Hoopshype and Bleacher Report both have Pat ranked outside of the top 30 of 2024 free-agents. Given his lack of clear development and this season currently being derailed by injury, I think we have the makings of a QO situation.

After today’s news I’d say we are either headed to the QO or a team friendly deal.

Maybe. If another team offers a two (or more) year deal do you think PW takes it? If his injury is a reoccurring thing then it's possible that next year might be up and down for him.

[League Circles]

They definitely will? How do you know?

Not that it means anything, but Hoopshype and Bleacher Report both have Pat ranked outside of the top 30 of 2024 free-agents. Given his lack of clear development and this season currently being derailed by injury, I think we have the makings of a QO situation.

After today’s news I’d say we are either headed to the QO or a team friendly deal.

Maybe. If another team offers a two (or more) year deal do you think PW takes it? If his injury is a reoccurring thing then it's possible that next year might be up and down for him.

It's unlikely that anyone offers him more than the MLE IMO, which we could/should/would match and that would probably end up being team friendly. If he can even slightly improve, with his 3 and D skills and ability to play both forward spots, he's easily worth that. It's a good bet, but it's roughly as high as I'd go. I think the full MLE is supposed to be like 12.8 mil so I'd probably refuse to go any higher whatsoever than 5 years starting at about 13.5 mil. Only way I'd go up from that annual dollar value would be if he agreed to only a 2 year deal, ideally with a team option or non guarantee for the third year. Then I'd probably go as high as like 16 mil.

The deal I'd offer first if I'm the Bulls would probably be 2 years starting at 13 mil in year one, with a team option for year 3.

[Dan Z]

After today’s news I’d say we are either headed to the QO or a team friendly deal.

Maybe. If another team offers a two (or more) year deal do you think PW takes it? If his injury is a reoccurring thing then it's possible that next year might be up and down for him.

It's unlikely that anyone offers him more than the MLE IMO, which we could/should/would match and that would probably end up being team friendly. If he can even slightly improve, with his 3 and D skills and ability to play both forward spots, he's easily worth that. It's a good bet, but it's roughly as high as I'd go. I think the full MLE is supposed to be like 12.8 mil so I'd probably refuse to go any higher whatsoever than 5 years starting at about 13.5 mil. Only way I'd go up from that annual dollar value would be if he agreed to only a 2 year deal, ideally with a team option or non guarantee for the third year. Then I'd probably go as high as like 16 mil.

The deal I'd offer first if I'm the Bulls would probably be 2 years starting at 13 mil in year one, with a team option for year 3.

All it takes is one team to put in a competitive bid. For example, what does Detroit have to lose by trying to get him?

[League Circles]

Maybe. If another team offers a two (or more) year deal do you think PW takes it? If his injury is a reoccurring thing then it's possible that next year might be up and down for him.

It's unlikely that anyone offers him more than the MLE IMO, which we could/should/would match and that would probably end up being team friendly. If he can even slightly improve, with his 3 and D skills and ability to play both forward spots, he's easily worth that. It's a good bet, but it's roughly as high as I'd go. I think the full MLE is supposed to be like 12.8 mil so I'd probably refuse to go any higher whatsoever than 5 years starting at about 13.5 mil. Only way I'd go up from that annual dollar value would be if he agreed to only a 2 year deal, ideally with a team option or non guarantee for the third year. Then I'd probably go as high as like 16 mil.

The deal I'd offer first if I'm the Bulls would probably be 2 years starting at 13 mil in year one, with a team option for year 3.

All it takes is one team to put in a competitive bid. For example, what does Detroit have to lose by trying to get him?

Well, they risk losing the money they'll pay him if he's not worth it. It's plausible that he is what he is: a good but not great defender who is good at hitting a low volume of open threes and has enormous hands that make you think he'll become great but he never shows that he knows how to take advantage of his attributes.

[Dan Z]

It's unlikely that anyone offers him more than the MLE IMO, which we could/should/would match and that would probably end up being team friendly. If he can even slightly improve, with his 3 and D skills and ability to play both forward spots, he's easily worth that. It's a good bet, but it's roughly as high as I'd go. I think the full MLE is supposed to be like 12.8 mil so I'd probably refuse to go any higher whatsoever than 5 years starting at about 13.5 mil. Only way I'd go up from that annual dollar value would be if he agreed to only a 2 year deal, ideally with a team option or non guarantee for the third year. Then I'd probably go as high as like 16 mil.

The deal I'd offer first if I'm the Bulls would probably be 2 years starting at 13 mil in year one, with a team option for year 3.

All it takes is one team to put in a competitive bid. For example, what does Detroit have to lose by trying to get him?

Well, they risk losing the money they'll pay him if he's not worth it. It's plausible that he is what he is: a good but not great defender who is good at hitting a low volume of open threes and has enormous hands that make you think he'll become great but he never shows that he knows how to take advantage of his attributes.

Detroit is 8-47. They need all the help they can get. Would they be better off spending that money on an older vet like DeMar? or Tobias Harris?

PW is 22 years old and if it works out he can grow with their young core. If it doesn't work out they're still not a good team and will continue what they're doing.

I don't necessarily think it's a good idea, but their options in FA are limited and he's one of the few players available with some upside.

OG, Monk, Quickley and Maxey will probably all re-sign with their current teams.