Patrick Williams next deal discussion with poll

[TheSuzerain]

6'8" guys who can play small forward, hit a 3, and defend the position are valued for a reason.

But Williams just such a lame version of that archetype. He seems like a bad culture guy too with his motor.

[greenl]

I'd be fine if they moved on from Pat. His presence doesn't have a material impact on the outcome of most games he plays in. He's the archetypal "just a guy".

On one hand, he had a few nice games this year and showed flashes of having more skills than he has shown. OTOH, he has been injured a lot and disappears frequently. He might be a classic case of "fool's gold".

IMO, the Bulls really don't want to give him a contract that isn't movable. I think he is worth a flyer at slightly more than the MLE but no way would I tie up 4/100 with him. If he walks, he walks. The Bulls have a hard cap at the LT barrier. They can't use up significant portions on that for players who aren't contributing if they want to win.

Pretty much every player has a few games like that per season and it usually doesn't mean future sustainable play at that level, it's usually just a flash in the pan. 80%+ of Pat's career to this point has been quiet and generally unimpactful.

If it's me I move on, preferably in the form of a trade.

Amen to this point. All mediocre players flash- that's what makes them mediocre- they can only flash occasionally. Being good to great means you're consistently good/great. Pat flashes- then disappears- then flashes- then disappears- the definition of average player. Calling Pat average might be a bit of a stretch.

[drosestruts]

The season ending injury is such a bummer for Pat and our ability to properly evaluate him.

Looking back on the season - the majority of the team started poorly - not just Pat.

I'll forever remember that first loss to Detroit. Zach put up 50 points. Coby AND Pat both started and scored 0 points combined. People somehow blamed that loss on Zach, which is a different discussion but is just so wild to me.

Then December rolled around and in 14 games that month Williams played in every game, scored 15 points per game with a TS% of 62.5% and was a +3.25 per game.

He was scoring efficiently with increased volume and the Bulls were winning the minutes he played on the court. He provided his usual good defense - 24 STOCKS in 14 games.

Then the injury happened. He played off/on for half a month - rather poorly, then shut it down for the year.

The hard thing to determine is - was it a fluke month or was Williams finally breaking through?

[MrSparkle]

I think there's a reason Billy kept starting and playing Patrick (beyond management wanting desperately for their #4 pick to pan out). He can defend and (spot-up) shoot at a very competent level, and once in a blue moon he demonstrates a bit more.

It'll be tricky to resign him, but ... If the idea to get under the cap is letting Patrick walk (to resign Demar, figure out Zach, keep Vuc), then it will be absolutely infuriating if Pat leaves and starts playing even remotely well (Wendell), let alone very well (Lauri - not likely, but somewhere in between the two). As it stands, we all have reason to doubt this FO's competency at projecting forward.

Whatever the low odds are of Pat improving into an excellent player, I'd pick them over trucking forward with the Demar/Vuc concept.

[DuckIII]

What we all need to hope for is a reasonable two year deal with a team (or player) option in year 3. We are so FUBAR we have to make sure we don’t lose Pat for virtually nothing. Of the players on the roster, whether you like it or not, he’s the only one capable of making a huge step forward to change our pathetic fate.

Yes, that’s how bad it is.

[League Circles]

It's imperative that we create some room for Patrick to get some minutes at the 3 IMO. He's not a full time 4, at least not next to Vuc.

[Ice Man]

It's imperative that we create some room for Patrick to get some minutes at the 3 IMO. He's not a full time 4, at least not next to Vuc.

He would struggle to keep a quick SF in front of him. That said, sure it could work with the right lineup and team defensive arrangement. I mean, he's not slower than Mike Dunleavy was at the #3 spot, and that worked out pretty well for us.

[ChettheJet]

The season ending injury is such a bummer for Pat and our ability to properly evaluate him.

Looking back on the season - the majority of the team started poorly - not just Pat.

I'll forever remember that first loss to Detroit. Zach put up 50 points. Coby AND Pat both started and scored 0 points combined. People somehow blamed that loss on Zach, which is a different discussion but is just so wild to me.

Then December rolled around and in 14 games that month Williams played in every game, scored 15 points per game with a TS% of 62.5% and was a +3.25 per game.

He was scoring efficiently with increased volume and the Bulls were winning the minutes he played on the court. He provided his usual good defense - 24 STOCKS in 14 games.

Then the injury happened. He played off/on for half a month - rather poorly, then shut it down for the year.

The hard thing to determine is - was it a fluke month or was Williams finally breaking through?

First Zach getting blamed for getting 50 points in the loss to DET. The reason Zach takes the blame for that early season loss is the Bulls' improved record after the 5-14 start. When they moved the ball in the offense found the open shooter, played defense they turned their record from that start around and played over .500 ball after that. Instead of Zach or Demar just pumping in a 50 piece, healthy Patrick scored about the 10ppg he did, Coby was a contender for MIP and they got to the play in instead of folding towards a top 5 pick. They rarely had the other 3 starters or next 4 bench guys go scoreless. The record showed which way was better.

Making the qualifying offer and resigning Patrick is where analytics can't be what the judgement is based on. He's been hurt, he's started, he's come off the bench, he's done virtually all of that from the 4 position and always brought defense. Many if not most people believe that with his low volume 3 pt% and his defense he's at least a 3 and D guy, or even open the bag and let him be more. So the decision to resign/extend him is, do you have the desire to play him at the 3?

The Bulls have to to base that on what AK, ME, Billy, Pax, Collins and the assistant coaches have seen with their own eyes from him on the floor. How does he move, how good is his ball handling, his shot, does he know the plays, what part does he play in half court defense, does he get back to stop the break. Throw out, PER, his numbers in any category and stats stats stats, too many stretches of missed games. As basketball people they have that discussion and everybody offers their opinion and since Karnasovas has the high title on the organization chart, he has to make the final call which has at least three parts. Do they keep him, how much is he worth coming off then bench, do they have a starting SF spot for him, does that mean Demar goes or becomes the SG, does Lavine stay or go, who is the PF they bring in to start and how do they get him?

[League Circles]

It's imperative that we create some room for Patrick to get some minutes at the 3 IMO. He's not a full time 4, at least not next to Vuc.

He would struggle to keep a quick SF in front of him. That said, sure it could work with the right lineup and team defensive arrangement. I mean, he's not slower than Mike Dunleavy was at the #3 spot, and that worked out pretty well for us.

I couldn't disagree more. Patrick is a good defender and he's best guarding a 3. Our best at that, IMO. He's a hell of a lot faster than Demar, I know that.

[TheSuzerain]

What we all need to hope for is a reasonable two year deal with a team (or player) option in year 3. We are so FUBAR we have to make sure we don’t lose Pat for virtually nothing. Of the players on the roster, whether you like it or not, he’s the only one capable of making a huge step forward to change our pathetic fate.

Yes, that’s how bad it is.

No player option in a million years

[DuckIII]

What we all need to hope for is a reasonable two year deal with a team (or player) option in year 3. We are so FUBAR we have to make sure we don’t lose Pat for virtually nothing. Of the players on the roster, whether you like it or not, he’s the only one capable of making a huge step forward to change our pathetic fate.

Yes, that’s how bad it is.

No player option in a million years

Hyperbolic. If a third year player option gets a value deal rather than a QO or an outside overpay, it’s not a significant downside.

[League Circles]

What we all need to hope for is a reasonable two year deal with a team (or player) option in year 3. We are so FUBAR we have to make sure we don’t lose Pat for virtually nothing. Of the players on the roster, whether you like it or not, he’s the only one capable of making a huge step forward to change our pathetic fate.

Yes, that’s how bad it is.

No player option in a million years

Hyperbolic. If a third year player option gets a value deal rather than a QO or an outside overpay, it’s not a significant downside.

Yeah, there's a price to mitigate everything, option and years-wise IMO.

[sco]

No player option in a million years

Hyperbolic. If a third year player option gets a value deal rather than a QO or an outside overpay, it’s not a significant downside.

Yeah, there's a price to mitigate everything, option and years-wise IMO.

I think anything under 3/$50 is fine. The foot injury is a double-edged sword. It cut his opportunity to show his progress this season and is a bit of a risk going into next season unless it is 100% healed (but that's impossible to know). It is also hard to imagine some team breaking the bank for him (i.e. paying more than the MLE). Using the Coby script and just threatening to match, while offering 3/$40'ish would work for me.

I have trouble separating his underperforming his pick with the fact that he's a good 3-D player (with a little upside). I think he'd thrive if we went with a defensive C and got an offensively capable PF, and then slot him in at the 3.

[madvillian]

At this point you have to separate the past, his draft status, mediocre play and project forward. Chicago cannot afford to lose a decent 3 and D guy regardless of how he's panned out relative to expectations.

[DASMACKDOWN]

At this point you have to separate the past, his draft status, mediocre play and project forward. Chicago cannot afford to lose a decent 3 and D guy regardless of how he's panned out relative to expectations.

That is basically my stance for over a year now.

There certainly seems to be some correlation between what they look like in Chicago under Billy Donovan vs what they look like somewhere else.

We talk of how Derrick Jones Jr looks now. How for some reason can play 76 games and start 66 of them. How he somehow doesn't play center. Who knew?

Or maybe even Gafford who has become the leagues most efficient and best interior defenders in the league. We somehow couldn't figure it out even though he had flashes early telling you this is who he could be. But that wasnt good enough for Billy.

I'm tired of it.

All I can say is, I am so glad AK's stubbornness did actually pay off for him with Coby and Ayo.

I would have been sick to my stomach if I saw Coby and Ayo do this on another team this year. It would have me questioning why be a fan of this franchise that I have loved since I was a kid.

I just want us to be smart. Figure this out concerning Patrick. Can he play the 3. Can he be more consistent. Can he be better finishing around the basket. If he can't do those things, pull the trigger and move on.

But the reason for moving on can't be because we just don't know. Or Billy didn't try new things or whatever.

[DuckIII]

At this point you have to separate the past, his draft status, mediocre play and project forward. Chicago cannot afford to lose a decent 3 and D guy regardless of how he's panned out relative to expectations.

Spot on. I say this frequently due to the frequency with which people make this emotional mistake: draft position is irrelevant the second the commish calls the name.

From that point on fans should only be evaluating a player based on what he is doing and what reasonable contractual value for those collective pros and cons should be. Never let a useful guy walk because he’s not what you hoped he’d be, never overpay a guy simply because he pleasantly surprised you. To fans, they should all just be players once drafted.

Devaluing what a guy actually does because it’s less than what you hoped for when you drafted him is really poor asset management.

[League Circles]

I'm still high on Patrick and relieved that his injury makes it much more plausible that we can keep him. What I'm willing to pay him and, more importantly, for how many years varies widely based on what other moves we make this summer, which really means before FA starts.

He's a good 3 and D guy with a great physical profile and the potential to be a really good ball handler (enormous hands).

But if we really want him to be successful, he needs more time at the position where holds a more consistent physical advantage - the 3. IMO, he should only be a 4 next to a real 5, not Vuc. Vuc is really not a C at all. He's an enormous, slow guard.

But I'm totally on board with everyone who feels we just can't afford to lose arguably our best upside guy, especially cause he's already proven at the valuable role of 3-and-D. So if we can't afford to lose him, and we can't be successful using him as we have, we need to create a situation where using him differently makes sense to everyone including the coach.

[DuckIII]

Pat is not a 4. He’s played out of position his whole career. Moreover, it’s bad for the team as well because he’s playing the 4 next to a immobile, short center who can’t rim protect. I’ve been saying it since he was a rookie but don’t harp on it because as a fan of his I think it sounds like excuse making. But it’s not.

[League Circles]

Pat is not a 4. He’s played out of position his whole career. Moreover, it’s bad for the team as well because he’s playing the 4 next to a immobile, short center who can’t rim protect. I’ve been saying it since he was a rookie but don’t harp on it because as a fan of his I think it sounds like excuse making. But it’s not.

100%. He's a potentially physically imposing 3, or maaaybe a part time 4 next to, as you say, true rim protectors (and other good defenders cause he's never gonna be a real big asset on D at the 4). Sometimes Pat is our 4, but he's often our 3, leaving Demar to be the 4, cause Demar can't guard a lot of good 3s, which creates just as big of a problem or more.

But just like I don't want to lose Patrick for nothing, I personally don't want to lose Demar for nothing. The only answer that makes sense if we keep them both is to open up more minutes for one of them at the 2, certainly allocate 100% of SF minutes to them as a tandem, and have a solid defensive C available for when they play the forward spots together.

[Chi town]

Pat is not a 4. He’s played out of position his whole career. Moreover, it’s bad for the team as well because he’s playing the 4 next to a immobile, short center who can’t rim protect. I’ve been saying it since he was a rookie but don’t harp on it because as a fan of his I think it sounds like excuse making. But it’s not.

100%. He's a potentially physically imposing 3, or maaaybe a part time 4 next to, as you say, true rim protectors (and other good defenders cause he's never gonna be a real big asset on D at the 4). Sometimes Pat is our 4, but he's often our 3, leaving Demar to be the 4, cause Demar can't guard a lot of good 3s, which creates just as big of a problem or more.

But just like I don't want to lose Patrick for nothing, I personally don't want to lose Demar for nothing. The only answer that makes sense if we keep them both is to open up more minutes for one of them at the 2, certainly allocate 100% of SF minutes to them as a tandem, and have a solid defensive C available for when they play the forward spots together.

Fully agree Bulls have not put Pat in best spot at the 4 next to Vuc. I think you would see him play with more of a motor as a 3 too. Not just standing in the corner as a 4. I think his lift on the jumper is so good he could be ran off screens and pin downs for jumpers.

If they are going to keep him at the 4 next to Vuc and DDR I’d trade him for a traditional PF.