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So now that he's out, there's no upping his value with good play to end the season.

What do folks think he should/will get from us?

If I'm AK, I do the "we'll match anyone's deal" to keep offers down. I could see teams come in at the MLE, but likely not more than that. I'd try for a 3/$44M deal with a team option last year.

I predict QO.

The Bulls probably go less than $12m, then wait and see

The Bulls dilemma is, figuring Patrick comes back healthy, you've got DeRozan expiring, do you really want to resign him for big enough money as he gets 3 years older, does his agent come to you with a similar sized offer from some other team and a S&T package that is enough to make you let him go.

That's when you decide on Williams. You don't resign him to come off the bench so have you seen enough from him when he plays consistent minutes that you're wiling to go 4 years over $12.5M per? Then if you resign DeRozan do you want Patrick at the 4 and do you get through to him to not play 4th or 5th fiddle on offense and demand the ball and take shots? Or you move Demar and you turn PWill loose as your starting 3?

It's not a a yes or no issue. but do the Bulls want to risk watching Williams go somewhere else, be over the injuries and be the next Lauri or Jimmy 'getting' it for a team ahead of them?

Now if I'm Williams I've got to go looking for offers because I sure don't see the Bulls plan. Are they resigning DeRozan making me a bench guy for 4 years getting 4 years older, I wouldn't have the confidence that Billy is going to ever let me start and get the touches so I can be a number, 1, 2, 3 guy with Lavine and DeRozan around and Coby moving on up. I'm ready to leave

We will jut match. This is great for us

ChettheJet wrote:The Bulls probably go less than $12m, then wait and see

The Bulls dilemma is, figuring Patrick comes back healthy, you've got DeRozan expiring, do you really want to resign him for big enough money as he gets 3 years older, does his agent come to you with a similar sized offer from some other team and a S&T package that is enough to make you let him go.

That's when you decide on Williams. You don't resign him to come off the bench so have you seen enough from him when he plays consistent minutes that you're wiling to go 4 years over $12.5M per? Then if you resign DeRozan do you want Patrick at the 4 and do you get through to him to not play 4th or 5th fiddle on offense and demand the ball and take shots? Or you move Demar and you turn PWill loose as your starting 3?

It's not a a yes or no issue. but do the Bulls want to risk watching Williams go somewhere else, be over the injuries and be the next Lauri or Jimmy 'getting' it for a team ahead of them?

Now if I'm Williams I've got to go looking for offers because I sure don't see the Bulls plan. Are they resigning DeRozan making me a bench guy for 4 years getting 4 years older, I wouldn't have the confidence that Billy is going to ever let me start and get the touches so I can be a number, 1, 2, 3 guy with Lavine and DeRozan around and Coby moving on up. I'm ready to leave

These are good concerns you've brought up. That's why, unless we're successful this year which I'm defining as at least a 7 game series loss in round 1, I think we need to make changes, and specifically because of the Demar/Patrick situation you describe, I think it's imperative that we try to move Vuc or Zach BEFORE free agency starts, ideally at the draft. This very well have to involve Caruso also if it's even possible. With no-defense Vuc at C, the Demar and Patrick starting tandem simply cannot be relied on next year. We either need a new C who can play significantly better defense, or we need to move on from either Demar or Patrick, or we need to have Patrick play off the bench as the primary 3/4 backup, or we need to trade Zach and have Demar or Patrick spend a lot of time defending the opposing SG, which probably won't work that well. Assuming we don't trade Zach at least before FA, we're obviously locked in to a Coby/Zach backcourt going into next season, which means the front court REQUIRES a shakeup in the starters with a real big with size playing the 4 or 5.

It will be for the QO. It was already trending in that direction before yesterday’s news.

If Pat and his reps are confident in his potential he’ll take the QO.

If Pat and reps aren’t confident in his longterm health and/or potential, they will sign a longer Bulls friendly contract.

People keep mentioning outside teams giving him a huge contract. Why? He hasn’t earned it at all and there are other more intriguing FAs out there. The Pistons are the one team I could see pursuing him, but they are so terrible that I think they will end up overpaying for middling vets to raise their floor.

I typed out several responses and deleted them. I have no freaking idea. First off, Patrick himself is such a wildcard its not funny. He has definitely shown flashes but his overall productivity is sub MLE type stuff. Add in the injury factor and I'm not sure how to value him.

Now add in the Bulls front office who seems to be terrible at negotiating. They aren't consistent at all so their tactics could be anywhere. They could sign and trade him like Lauri or back a brinks truck up like Lavine.

I would be happy with a 3yr / $45m deal or something but I have no idea how close that is to reality.

I think Utah is the team to worry about. Ainge has nothing to lose by overpaying for young RFA gambles. Dunn-Pat-Lauri-Kessler: the CouldaBeenBulls. He’s pretty much nailed every single one so far, and Pat would fit that mold.

They don’t need Pat to perform tomorrow, he’s just finding value prospects who were misused, injured and on sub 500 losers with bad coaches.

Lost in the season shuffle, Sexton has been on a tear since December, putting up all star numbers.

If he gets sneaky and offers Pat a 75/3 deal with PO, Bulls absolutely can’t afford that without letting Demar, Drummond walk. Essentially going into next year with a broken half tank job and over the cap.

DuckIII wrote:I predict QO.

We don't want this outcome and should try to prevent it imo.

Pat’s production is vet minimum caliber. All he has going for him is youth and flashes. He wants big money. I don’t see this going anywhere beyond the QO unless Pat agrees to a multiyear Ayo-like deal.

Something like 4/$80M or 4/$75M is my guess.

I don't see him as a take the QO and bet on myself type of guy, his personality suggests the opposite, and with him missing the end of two out of four seasons it probably wouldn't be a very wise decision anyway to pass up guaranteed money and guaranteed years.

AKME has shown that they're hesitant to admit defeat on poor moves, love "their" guys, and are willing to overpay for those reasons as well as continuity. From their perspective, they apparently view Pat as the future of this franchise, so why would you lowball someone like that? They've stated they're all about changing the perception of this team into a player-first organization.

Besides that, I think there's a real chance he gets some serious offers from some crappy rebuilding teams who believe they can unlock him. Former 4th overall pick with ideal size/length for a modern SF/PF, still young, has a 3&D floor, and has the perception of untapped potential.

Some rebuilding team will look at him and say he was underutilized playing behind Demar, Zach, Vuc, and Coby and give him the keys as a top 2 or 3 guy.

I'd be shocked if we signed him for anything close to Coby or Ayo's deals. I'm using the Vuc deal as a baseline for how I expect this to go down.

GoBlue72391 wrote:Something like 4/$80M or 4/$75M is my guess.

I don't see him as a take the QO and bet on myself type of guy, his personality suggests the opposite, and with him missing the end of two out of four seasons it probably wouldn't be a very wise decision anyway to pass up guaranteed money and guaranteed years.

AKME has shown that they're hesitant to admit defeat on poor moves, love "their" guys, and are willing to overpay for those reasons as well as continuity. From their perspective, they apparently view Pat as the future of this franchise, so why would you lowball someone like that? They've stated they're all about changing the perception of this team into a player-first organization.

Besides that, I think there's a real chance he gets some serious offers from some crappy rebuilding teams who believe they can unlock him. Former 4th overall pick with ideal size/length for a modern SF/PF, still young, has a 3&D floor, and has the perception of untapped potential.

Some rebuilding team will look at him and say he was underutilized playing behind Demar, Zach, Vuc, and Coby and give him the keys as a top 2 or 3 guy.

I'd be shocked if we signed him for anything close to Coby or Ayo's deals. I'm using the Vuc deal as a baseline for how I expect this to go down.

I can understand your prediction considering how they overpaid to re-sign Vuc, but Coby is the much more direct comparison, and it's hard to understand why they'd offer Patrick more than Coby. They had similar pedigree and similar obstacles to success, yet Coby was playing better and was fully healthy and you're suggesting that one year later they'll offer an unhealthy, less productive Patrick a lot more money and for more years. I doubt it.

TheSuzerain wrote:

DuckIII wrote:I predict QO.

We don't want this outcome and should try to prevent it imo.

It's not the worst outcome, but agree it isn't preferred. So we should offer him a 3-5 year deal starting at essentially the QO or just above it and see what happens. If he doesn't like that and can't sign an offer sheet for more, maybe I'd go up ever so slightly to an absolute max of 14 mil first year money, but that's it. He's really been no better than a Torrey Craig, DJJ, Javonte Green type for us and has had a real hard time even staying in the starting lineup for a team that has role well carved out for him. Anything more than rouhgly 13-14 mil could easily end up being a really bad contract, especially if the injury affects him, but even if it doesn't.

If they pay him more than 7 figures they are idiots.

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DuckIII wrote:I predict QO.

That's interesting, why do you think that?

I'd think if he's not healthy, he'll take the security, because his odds of killing it while not fully healthy aren't so hot anyway.

If he is fully healthy, I think he'll just find a good deal in the marketplace and there will be some team (probably us) that will gamble on his upside. I'd guess if we don't view health as a factor that we offer at least 20M per year.

coldfish wrote:I typed out several responses and deleted them. I have no freaking idea. First off, Patrick himself is such a wildcard its not funny. He has definitely shown flashes but his overall productivity is sub MLE type stuff. Add in the injury factor and I'm not sure how to value him.

Now add in the Bulls front office who seems to be terrible at negotiating. They aren't consistent at all so their tactics could be anywhere. They could sign and trade him like Lauri or back a brinks truck up like Lavine.

I would be happy with a 3yr / $45m deal or something but I have no idea how close that is to reality.

While it's hard to predict, the X-factor to me is that I believe this FO really is in love with their own moves / guys. They've not shown any sign of acknowledging a thing they did was bad. As such, I think they will take the most optimistic and proactive approach towards Pat possible.

Ie, they will give him the benefit of the doubt on both health and future performance. I bet, barring a meaningful negative health sign in the summer, that we offer 20M per year.

dougthonus wrote:

DuckIII wrote:I predict QO.

That's interesting, why do you think that?

I'd think if he's not healthy, he'll take the security, because his odds of killing it while not fully healthy aren't so hot anyway.

If he is fully healthy, I think he'll just find a good deal in the marketplace and there will be some team (probably us) that will gamble on his upside. I'd guess if we don't view health as a factor that we offer at least 20M per year.

Honest question - do you think that we'd do this because AK is an idiot or because you think that's a reasonable midpoint in his projected value? (like he could just as easily end up being worth 10 mil as he could be worth 30 mil)

I'm finding it hard to understand why anyone would even mention any of these numbers for Patrick, healthy or not. So far in 4 years he hasn't even played like a guy who is worth a multi year guaranteed contract, let alone some kind of cornerstone. I know 20 mil isn't what it used to be, but so far Patrick Williams is just some rotation guy. There isn't a team in the league IMO that if they had Patrick Williams right now would conclude that they are set, long term, with him as their starting 3 or 4. The guy isn't an efficient scorer, puts up really low scoring and rebounding numbers, and is a non-existent playmaker. All he is is a good defender (which are available extensively for cheap) who can hit low volume, wide open threes at a nice rate but low frequency, with big hands. I know he has a lot of ability, but I see the midpoint in what he'll likely be worth something much more like 15 mil right now, with 3 mil at the low end and maybe 30 mil at the highest. No team is going to think that they can become a contender with him making 30-40 mil even if he reaches his potential.

League Circles wrote:

dougthonus wrote:

DuckIII wrote:I predict QO.

That's interesting, why do you think that?

I'd think if he's not healthy, he'll take the security, because his odds of killing it while not fully healthy aren't so hot anyway.

If he is fully healthy, I think he'll just find a good deal in the marketplace and there will be some team (probably us) that will gamble on his upside. I'd guess if we don't view health as a factor that we offer at least 20M per year.

Honest question - do you think that we'd do this because AK is an idiot or because you think that's a reasonable midpoint in his projected value? (like he could just as easily end up being worth 10 mil as he could be worth 30 mil)

I'm finding it hard to understand why anyone would even mention any of these numbers for Patrick, healthy or not. So far in 4 years he hasn't even played like a guy who is worth a multi year guaranteed contract, let alone some kind of cornerstone. I know 20 mil isn't what it used to be, but so far Patrick Williams is just some rotation guy. There isn't a team in the league IMO that if they had Patrick Williams right now would conclude that they are set, long term, with him as their starting 3 or 4. The guy isn't an efficient scorer, puts up really low scoring and rebounding numbers, and is a non-existent playmaker. All he is is a good defender (which are available extensively for cheap) who can hit low volume, wide open threes at a nice rate but low frequency, with big hands. I know he has a lot of ability, but I see the midpoint in what he'll likely be worth something much more like 15 mil right now, with 3 mil at the low end and maybe 30 mil at the highest. No team is going to think that they can become a contender with him making 30-40 mil even if he reaches his potential.

Well said

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4 years 60M, team opt out after year 2, player opt out after year 3.

Who knows what Pat will expect/hold out for. He's shown almost no growth since college and now coming off of a very sketchy injury/surgery. But somehow, reportedly, Pat expected a 200M contract this past offseason. I don't know that reality and Pat are on the same wavelength, that report seems to illustrate that he is far removed from said reality.