Bears 2024: 5.0 It's Caleb Williams time

[Chi town]

Can we just fast fwd to Aug and Bears football?

Bulls offseason is going to be infuriating and take away any fumes of promise for the future.

[dice]

As Jeff said in todays dabearsblog that I posted…

If Bears are winning and have a shot at contending…
Poles will be making another Sweat type trade to put us over the top.

which would again be short-sighted and stupid. if the bears are in that position it is because caleb is a star in the making and the bears should be contending for the next 10 years plus

[NesimLE]

As Jeff said in todays dabearsblog that I posted…

If Bears are winning and have a shot at contending…
Poles will be making another Sweat type trade to put us over the top.

which would again be short-sighted and stupid. if the bears are in that position it is because caleb is a star in the making and the bears should be contending for the next 10 years plus

That’s not necessarily true. It’s at minimum plausible that there’s a threshold that teams (or perhaps this roster in some local optimum configuration) can’t overcome without risk or fortune. Meaning that the Bears very might cap out at say, a conference championship team without taking a risk or maximizing short over long term gains for some set of transactions. Of course, it’s also possible that the play is to maintain fringe contention until the stars align and get the fortune that way…it’s a very tough hill to climb regardless.

Edit: it’s probably not an issue until the team at least approaches said local maxima though, so a trade next year specifically might be a bit rash, but it’ll depend on the performance and outlook at that moment.

[fleet]

allen can't bring back more than a 5th round comp pick because of his service time, and we only get a comp pick if we lose more qualifying free agents than we sign, which still isn't very likely next year

Ah, thanks. That’s YouTube for ya.

[dice]

As Jeff said in todays dabearsblog that I posted…

If Bears are winning and have a shot at contending…
Poles will be making another Sweat type trade to put us over the top.

which would again be short-sighted and stupid. if the bears are in that position it is because caleb is a star in the making and the bears should be contending for the next 10 years plus

That’s not necessarily true. It’s at minimum plausible that there’s a threshold that teams (or perhaps this roster in some local optimum configuration) can’t overcome without risk or fortune.

if caleb looks like bryce young (i.e. it seems very unlikely that he will ever be a star) yet the bears are somehow contenders, then yeah. i suppose that is indeed PLAUSIBLE...but not worth speculating about

[NesimLE]

which would again be short-sighted and stupid. if the bears are in that position it is because caleb is a star in the making and the bears should be contending for the next 10 years plus

That’s not necessarily true. It’s at minimum plausible that there’s a threshold that teams (or perhaps this roster in some local optimum configuration) can’t overcome without risk or fortune.

if caleb looks like bryce young (i.e. it seems very unlikely that he will ever be a star) yet the bears are somehow contenders, then yeah. i suppose that is indeed PLAUSIBLE...but not worth speculating about

I might be wrong, but is the summary of your strategy that we should build a team that maximizes the available assets each season such that future seasons’ odds are not decreased, and then depend on having a top X QB talent to out duel the opposing QB when we run into a team that can match up with the other factors or has a QB to match? Essentially the idea being, a top X QB is a trump, so beyond a certain point it’s wasteful to acquire talent at a cost that will reduce the number of spins so to speak? With this being dependent on Caleb being a top X QB, for the value of X sufficient to be a contender?

[Howling Mad]

allen can't bring back more than a 5th round comp pick because of his service time, and we only get a comp pick if we lose more qualifying free agents than we sign, which still isn't very likely next year

Ah, thanks. That’s YouTube for ya.

The earliest time Poles could hack the comp pick system would be 2026. We have 16 UFA, of which 5 would probably be resigned. Brisker, Braxton Jones, DJ Moore, and possibly TJ Edwards and Kyler Gordon.

Velus, Everett, Nate Davis, Bates, Carter, Walker, Billings, Robinson, Byard, Owens, and Elijah Hicks will most likely not receive extension offers.

[dice]

That’s not necessarily true. It’s at minimum plausible that there’s a threshold that teams (or perhaps this roster in some local optimum configuration) can’t overcome without risk or fortune.

if caleb looks like bryce young (i.e. it seems very unlikely that he will ever be a star) yet the bears are somehow contenders, then yeah. i suppose that is indeed PLAUSIBLE...but not worth speculating about

I might be wrong, but is the summary of your strategy that we should build a team that maximizes the available assets each season such that future seasons’ odds are not decreased, and then depend on having a top X QB talent to out duel the opposing QB when we run into a team that can match up with the other factors or has a QB to match? Essentially the idea being, a top X QB is a trump, so beyond a certain point it’s wasteful to acquire talent at a cost that will reduce the number of spins so to speak? With this being dependent on Caleb being a top X QB, for the value of X sufficient to be a contender?

franchise QBs are highly important for 1 reason: they are very underpaid. and production in excess of contract value is the name of the game w/ a hard salary cap

what is the other reliable way to produce excess value? rookie contracts. load up on 'em and DRAFT with them. don't piss them away by trading for market contracts when you can sign players in free agency instead. and don't fixate on big names in free agency. fill holes reasonably however you can. some of your draft picks will become big names. hopefully you can re-sign them at reasonable cost rather than go the more expensive free agency route

[Dresden]

As Jeff said in todays dabearsblog that I posted…

If Bears are winning and have a shot at contending…
Poles will be making another Sweat type trade to put us over the top.

which would again be short-sighted and stupid. if the bears are in that position it is because caleb is a star in the making and the bears should be contending for the next 10 years plus

Stupid according to you. Smart and well timed according to the rest of the football world.

[Almost Retired]

Too early 2025 Mock Draft. Heavy on the Defensive Side:
https://247sports.com/nfl/chicago-bears/contentgallery/way-too-early-chicago-bears-2025-nfl-mock-draft-231267332/#2415274

[JimmyButler21]

As Jeff said in todays dabearsblog that I posted…

If Bears are winning and have a shot at contending…
Poles will be making another Sweat type trade to put us over the top.

which would again be short-sighted and stupid. if the bears are in that position it is because caleb is a star in the making and the bears should be contending for the next 10 years plus

Stupid according to you. Smart and well timed according to the rest of the football world.

The Bears are really in a 5 year window right now with Caleb's rookie contract.

[Michael Jackson]

which would again be short-sighted and stupid. if the bears are in that position it is because caleb is a star in the making and the bears should be contending for the next 10 years plus

Stupid according to you. Smart and well timed according to the rest of the football world.

The Bears are really in a 5 year window right now with Caleb's rookie contract.

Well according to Caleb it is a 20 year window with 8 or more superbowls. Easy lol.

[dice]

which would again be short-sighted and stupid. if the bears are in that position it is because caleb is a star in the making and the bears should be contending for the next 10 years plus

Stupid according to you. Smart and well timed according to the rest of the football world.

The Bears are really in a 5 year window right now with Caleb's rookie contract.

given that QBs are underpaid, the window is the entirety of his prime if he's a star...just like all other star QBs. really hard not to enter each season as be a contender w/ a star QB

"the rest of the football world"

same "rest of the football world" that loved the khalil mack trade. similar to the "rest of the basketball world" who loved the derozan trade. eeeeeeverybody focused on the immediate present

and, of course, no other team in the league was willing to match the bears offer for sweat's cheap expiring contract. so it's self evidently false that "the rest of the football world" thought that was a wise move. not a single other GM thought it was (almost all of whom would have immediately improved their team, including contenders)

[Chicago-Bull-E]

Stupid according to you. Smart and well timed according to the rest of the football world.

The Bears are really in a 5 year window right now with Caleb's rookie contract.

Well according to Caleb it is a 20 year window with 8 or more superbowls. Easy lol.

If that’s what he’s really interested in, he’ll look into taking pay cuts like Brady did. Not that I’d expect it, but it wouldn’t surprise me.

[Michael Jackson]

The Bears are really in a 5 year window right now with Caleb's rookie contract.

Well according to Caleb it is a 20 year window with 8 or more superbowls. Easy lol.

If that’s what he’s really interested in, he’ll look into taking pay cuts like Brady did. Not that I’d expect it, but it wouldn’t surprise me.

If there is proven success... I can see it, just one SB victory would have his marketability through the roof his endorsement deals would more than make up for salary. Plus he has the swagger and personality to capitalize on those opportunities. If they aren't a perennial contender... well he will want the bag.

[Dresden]

Stupid according to you. Smart and well timed according to the rest of the football world.

The Bears are really in a 5 year window right now with Caleb's rookie contract.

given that QBs are underpaid, the window is the entirety of his prime if he's a star...just like all other star QBs. really hard not to enter each season as be a contender w/ a star QB

"the rest of the football world"

same "rest of the football world" that loved the khalil mack trade. similar to the "rest of the basketball world" who loved the derozan trade. eeeeeeverybody focused on the immediate present

and, of course, no other team in the league was willing to match the bears offer for sweat's cheap expiring contract. so it's self evidently false that "the rest of the football world" thought that was a wise move. not a single other GM thought it was (almost all of whom would have immediately improved their team, including contenders)

It's pure speculation on your part that the Bears offer was the only one WAS got, or that no other team would have offered what the Bears did for Sweat. It's possible the Bears offer was just one pick higher than the next best offer, or that the Bears beat the other teams in making an offer and WAS accepted.

Be consistent- you complained that Poles could not have known that another team would have chosen the punter we took, yet here you're claiming you know what every other team thought about Sweat.

And in hindsight, that move has been universally praised by analysts and people in the media. I haven't come across a single writer or commentator that thinks otherwise. That's a pretty strong indication it was the right move.

Not to mention that Poles made the right choice in going after Sweat and not Young (who a lot of people thought was the better player). And we signed Sweat long term to a reasonable deal, avoiding a FA bidding war for his services. Smart move all around by Poles, for which you call him "stupid".

[dougthonus]

franchise QBs are highly important for 1 reason: they are very underpaid. and production in excess of contract value is the name of the game w/ a hard salary cap

what is the other reliable way to produce excess value? rookie contracts. load up on 'em and DRAFT with them. don't piss them away by trading for market contracts when you can sign players in free agency instead. and don't fixate on big names in free agency. fill holes reasonably however you can. some of your draft picks will become big names. hopefully you can re-sign them at reasonable cost rather than go the more expensive free agency route

You need to do all these things, but these things ignore total talent. You aren't going to have more total talent by just stacking up rookies, because the ability to get tons of them that high total talent is very low. You still need to bring in a lot of total talent market value guys and then surround them with the underpaid guys, and the underpaid guys give you more room to have more total talent market value guys.

When getting the "total talent" guys, you don't want to expend the "underpaid talent" assets. Ie, better to get them through extending your own guys or FA than to trade for them.

I haven't analyzed NFL contract markets, but I would bet that the NFL market is somewhat inefficient, and that you can also scheme in ways to take advantage of areas that are historically underpaid relative to their impact. Perhaps less true now than it once was though as we've seen RBs just plummet in value as an example.

[fleet]

The Sweat deal was premature for me. The kind of thing a young team would add as a final piece more or less to go for the division on a ready team. Which is part of what invited some of the scrutiny. Had it been a deal done in the middle of this season in pursuit of first place, then nobody would really question it to the degree it was questioned. As such, it seemed like a deal for Eberflus to be able to survive easily, which I don’t see as very “smart” team-building, unless he was some kind of coach with special ability to worry about losing

[sco]

The Sweat deal was premature for me. The kind of thing a young team would add as a final piece more or less to go for the division on a ready team. Which is part of what invited some of the scrutiny. Had it been a deal done in the middle of this season in pursuit of first place, then nobody would really question it to the degree it was questioned. As such, it seemed like a deal for Eberflus to be able to survive easily, which I don’t see as very “smart” team-building, unless he was some kind of coach with special ability to worry about losing

You may be right, I'm not sure the opportunity cost was all that high. IMO, it comes down to the org wanting some quality vets to stem the org's losing culture, which might be the right move, but it's hard to tell.

[fleet]

The Sweat deal was premature for me. The kind of thing a young team would add as a final piece more or less to go for the division on a ready team. Which is part of what invited some of the scrutiny. Had it been a deal done in the middle of this season in pursuit of first place, then nobody would really question it to the degree it was questioned. As such, it seemed like a deal for Eberflus to be able to survive easily, which I don’t see as very “smart” team-building, unless he was some kind of coach with special ability to worry about losing

You may be right, I'm not sure the opportunity cost was all that high. IMO, it comes down to the org wanting some quality vets to stem the org's losing culture, which might be the right move, but it's hard to tell.

I mean, there are always guys that become available in theory. Trey Hendrickson, Hunter etc. but the deal was premature, and the compensation was important enough that brings up the possibility that team improvement alternatives existed outside of it plus the salary requirement. A true young center or defensive tackle in the second round and cap space being one realistic alternative.