Bears 2024: 5.0 It's Caleb Williams time

[Dresden]

We've been dealt a very, very good hand, but Poles has also played it like a champ. His decision not to take a QB last year, and then TO take a QB this year were both decisions that got criticized by many, and opened him up to a lot of second guessing, but ultimately ended up being exactly the right way to play things. We got a massive haul for #1 last year, and took a generational talent at QB this year.

What we got out of passing on a QB last year for that haul is unprecedented. DJ Moore, legit #1 WR. Darnell Wright, our best OL and starting RT. Tyrique Stevenson, our best starting CB. Caleb Williams, who not only was the consensus pick at #1 this year, but who woulda been the first draft pick last year if he had entered. And we still have a second rounder next year to spend on some other potential stud. Addresses a ton of team needs in one deal. Never seen this before.

wright is certainly not our best OL...yet? and stevenson is FAR from what JJ did last season

enough with the pissing away of draft picks for short-term and/or expensive fixes

and people need to stop pretending that taking justin fields over CJ stroud was poles shrewdly playing the long game. the plan was not to get extremely lucky. the realistic plan (a reasonable one!) was to take a mccarthy/penix-level talent if fields didn't work out. anything more than that was a bonus or require substantial draft capital to move up. carolina could have just as easily had a season like the texans last season. and everything in-between

winning the lottery does not earn credit for being a sound financial planner

Poles was keeping his options open and maintaining a lot of flexibility when it came to the QB position. The way he did things, he gave Justin one more season to prove himself, and he had a ready made back up plan in case he didn't. Very smart. He knew he would have 2 FRP's, one or both of which would be fairly high, so he had the ability to move up in the draft if he needed to. That doesn't take a leap of faith to see that that was his plan.

[Dresden]

On why the Bears selected Williams:

“Some came from national scout Francis St. Paul and West Coast area scout Reese Hicks, who kept telling Poles that he needed to get back out to California, and around the people at USC. He’d find out, they promised, that the narratives that circled Williams while the Trojans’ season circled the drain weren’t real. Investigate it yourself, they said. Read our reports. Investigate it.

“Meanwhile, Poles, assistant GM Ian Cunningham and director of player personnel Jeff King had drilled down on the tape and started to form a conclusion that Williams was simply different from the rest of the class. The issues he did show—mainly his fumbling and risk-taking tied to playmaking—could be coached. And he had stuff you couldn’t coach in spades, to the point that Poles was reminded of evaluating Patrick Mahomes as a young Kansas City Chiefs exec in 2017.”

The mistakes can be coached away. The gifts can’t be coached out of the system. That’s the summation of a player with a lot of upside and relatively little risk. The Bears reached that conclusion with Caleb Williams."

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/chicago-bears-felt-caleb-williams-182038701.html

[molepharmer]

fwiw -
Should get pressers from Eberflus, Caleb and Rome on Fri
Waldron, E Washington, Amegadjie, Taylor and Booker on Sat

Read on Twitter

[1985Bear]

We've been dealt a very, very good hand, but Poles has also played it like a champ. His decision not to take a QB last year, and then TO take a QB this year were both decisions that got criticized by many, and opened him up to a lot of second guessing, but ultimately ended up being exactly the right way to play things. We got a massive haul for #1 last year, and took a generational talent at QB this year.

What we got out of passing on a QB last year for that haul is unprecedented. DJ Moore, legit #1 WR. Darnell Wright, our best OL and starting RT. Tyrique Stevenson, our best starting CB. Caleb Williams, who not only was the consensus pick at #1 this year, but who woulda been the first draft pick last year if he had entered. And we still have a second rounder next year to spend on some other potential stud. Addresses a ton of team needs in one deal. Never seen this before.

wright is certainly not our best OL...yet? and stevenson is FAR from what JJ did last season

enough with the pissing away of draft picks for short-term and/or expensive fixes

and people need to stop pretending that taking justin fields over CJ stroud was poles shrewdly playing the long game. the plan was not to get extremely lucky. the realistic plan (a reasonable one!) was to take a mccarthy/penix-level talent if fields didn't work out. anything more than that was a bonus or require substantial draft capital to move up. carolina could have just as easily had a season like the texans last season. and everything in-between

winning the lottery does not earn credit for being a sound financial planner

Dice, I love the conviction and data driven analysis to team building. But I think your teams would suck. Constantly letting top players go because they cost too much, only signing guys to below market (good luck), and never trading for a player, just trade your guys for more picks. Then the draft, which seems to be the holy grail of team Dice. I don’t see any evaluation of failed picks or percentages that draft picks done work out in your equations.

There is definitely merit and logic behind your analysis but it doesn’t seem realistic. Sure if you never miss on a pick and have a team full of great value contracts, it would be optimal.

Take Keenan Allen for a 4th rounder. Allen is a 100% productive, above avg NFL player this year. ( you know the actual season we play next). A 4th round pick chances of being a contributor is what 19% success rate and for a WR it’s less than 10%. If I follow your analysis, you would rather have Javon Baker in the 4th and sign Renfrow at below market and that is supposed to make the team better???

Again, I love reading it and think you add a lot to the board. But I feel you really overvalue draft picks and discount how often they fail.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[fleet]

Jeremy Fowler:

The selection of Yale tackle Kiran Amegadjie at No. 75 overall in 2024 has high upside. Multiple scouts say Amegadjie could have been a top-45 pick if not for a quad injury that thwarted his participation in the Senior Bowl

https://www.chicitysports.com/kiran-amegadjie-sleeper-for-chicago-bears

[JockItch43]

What we got out of passing on a QB last year for that haul is unprecedented. DJ Moore, legit #1 WR. Darnell Wright, our best OL and starting RT. Tyrique Stevenson, our best starting CB. Caleb Williams, who not only was the consensus pick at #1 this year, but who woulda been the first draft pick last year if he had entered. And we still have a second rounder next year to spend on some other potential stud. Addresses a ton of team needs in one deal. Never seen this before.

wright is certainly not our best OL...yet? and stevenson is FAR from what JJ did last season

enough with the pissing away of draft picks for short-term and/or expensive fixes

and people need to stop pretending that taking justin fields over CJ stroud was poles shrewdly playing the long game. the plan was not to get extremely lucky. the realistic plan (a reasonable one!) was to take a mccarthy/penix-level talent if fields didn't work out. anything more than that was a bonus or require substantial draft capital to move up. carolina could have just as easily had a season like the texans last season. and everything in-between

winning the lottery does not earn credit for being a sound financial planner

Dice, I love the conviction and data driven analysis to team building. But I think your teams would suck. Constantly letting top players go because they cost too much, only signing guys to below market (good luck), and never trading for a player, just trade your guys for more picks. Then the draft, which seems to be the holy grail of team Dice. I don’t see any evaluation of failed picks or percentages that draft picks done work out in your equations.

There is definitely merit and logic behind your analysis but it doesn’t seem realistic. Sure if you never miss on a pick and have a team full of great value contracts, it would be optimal.

Take Keenan Allen for a 4th rounder. Allen is a 100% productive, above avg NFL player this year. ( you know the actual season we play next). A 4th round pick chances of being a contributor is what 19% success rate and for a WR it’s less than 10%. If I follow your analysis, you would rather have Javon Baker in the 4th and sign Renfrow at below market and that is supposed to make the team better???

Again, I love reading it and think you add a lot to the board. But I feel you really overvalue draft picks and discount how often they fail.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

There's some level of art involved with these things. Dice has difficulty seeing beyond the science.

[JockItch43]

wright is certainly not our best OL...yet? and stevenson is FAR from what JJ did last season

enough with the pissing away of draft picks for short-term and/or expensive fixes

and people need to stop pretending that taking justin fields over CJ stroud was poles shrewdly playing the long game. the plan was not to get extremely lucky. the realistic plan (a reasonable one!) was to take a mccarthy/penix-level talent if fields didn't work out. anything more than that was a bonus or require substantial draft capital to move up. carolina could have just as easily had a season like the texans last season. and everything in-between

winning the lottery does not earn credit for being a sound financial planner

Dice, I love the conviction and data driven analysis to team building. But I think your teams would suck. Constantly letting top players go because they cost too much, only signing guys to below market (good luck), and never trading for a player, just trade your guys for more picks. Then the draft, which seems to be the holy grail of team Dice. I don’t see any evaluation of failed picks or percentages that draft picks done work out in your equations.

There is definitely merit and logic behind your analysis but it doesn’t seem realistic. Sure if you never miss on a pick and have a team full of great value contracts, it would be optimal.

Take Keenan Allen for a 4th rounder. Allen is a 100% productive, above avg NFL player this year. ( you know the actual season we play next). A 4th round pick chances of being a contributor is what 19% success rate and for a WR it’s less than 10%. If I follow your analysis, you would rather have Javon Baker in the 4th and sign Renfrow at below market and that is supposed to make the team better???

Again, I love reading it and think you add a lot to the board. But I feel you really overvalue draft picks and discount how often they fail.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

There's some level of art involved with team building. Dice has difficulty seeing beyond the science.

[fleet]

wright is certainly not our best OL...yet? and stevenson is FAR from what JJ did last season

enough with the pissing away of draft picks for short-term and/or expensive fixes

and people need to stop pretending that taking justin fields over CJ stroud was poles shrewdly playing the long game. the plan was not to get extremely lucky. the realistic plan (a reasonable one!) was to take a mccarthy/penix-level talent if fields didn't work out. anything more than that was a bonus or require substantial draft capital to move up. carolina could have just as easily had a season like the texans last season. and everything in-between

winning the lottery does not earn credit for being a sound financial planner

Dice, I love the conviction and data driven analysis to team building. But I think your teams would suck. Constantly letting top players go because they cost too much, only signing guys to below market (good luck), and never trading for a player, just trade your guys for more picks. Then the draft, which seems to be the holy grail of team Dice. I don’t see any evaluation of failed picks or percentages that draft picks done work out in your equations.

There is definitely merit and logic behind your analysis but it doesn’t seem realistic. Sure if you never miss on a pick and have a team full of great value contracts, it would be optimal.

Take Keenan Allen for a 4th rounder. Allen is a 100% productive, above avg NFL player this year. ( you know the actual season we play next). A 4th round pick chances of being a contributor is what 19% success rate and for a WR it’s less than 10%. If I follow your analysis, you would rather have Javon Baker in the 4th and sign Renfrow at below market and that is supposed to make the team better???

Again, I love reading it and think you add a lot to the board. But I feel you really overvalue draft picks and discount how often they fail.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

There's some level of art involved with team building. Dice has difficulty seeing beyond the science.

Now that Poles has his quarterback and established job security, I do hope he will be more patient with acquiring talent from this point instead of forcing it.