Bears 2024: 5.0 It's Caleb Williams time

[kozelkid]

On a final note, there's no single answer for building a sustainable successful team.

Ideally you draft great, but you should diversify your options and not stick to only one strategy.

Rams are a great example who took advantage of teams overvaluing draft picks and got a Superbowl and consistent playoff appearances out of it.

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[Chicago-Bull-E]

https://www.thehogsty.com/2020/04/23/the-odds-of-success-for-a-draft-pick-part-4/

This person did this exercise that many are talking about. His findings on whether a pick was 'successful' (4 years of starting in the NFL, which I think is a fair bar)

Success rate by round:
1st round: 70%
2nd round: 49%
3rd round: 29.19%
4th round: 20.30%
5th round: 14.42%
6th round: 8.84%
7th round: 6.40%

To me, 4th round and beyond is pretty silly to expect much. a 1 in 5 chance means in every draft there are 6 quality starters drafted in 32 picks. Everything thinks their team will be one of the 6, but in reality the opposite is true.

[Hold That]

https://www.thehogsty.com/2020/04/23/the-odds-of-success-for-a-draft-pick-part-4/

This person did this exercise that many are talking about. His findings on whether a pick was 'successful' (4 years of starting in the NFL, which I think is a fair bar)

Success rate by round:
1st round: 70%
2nd round: 49%
3rd round: 29.19%
4th round: 20.30%
5th round: 14.42%
6th round: 8.84%
7th round: 6.40%

To me, 4th round and beyond is pretty silly to expect much. a 1 in 5 chance means in every draft there are 6 quality starters drafted in 32 picks. Everything thinks their team will be one of the 6, but in reality the opposite is true.

Also for the scouts who were let go, it’s good to note that scouts earn their money by helping the team hit on talent from rounds 5-7…

We haven’t had success in those rounds which is why those scouts were let go, and some of them were before Poles got here. Poles is likely bringing in more of “his guys”

[jnrjr79]

https://www.thehogsty.com/2020/04/23/the-odds-of-success-for-a-draft-pick-part-4/

This person did this exercise that many are talking about. His findings on whether a pick was 'successful' (4 years of starting in the NFL, which I think is a fair bar)

Success rate by round:
1st round: 70%
2nd round: 49%
3rd round: 29.19%
4th round: 20.30%
5th round: 14.42%
6th round: 8.84%
7th round: 6.40%

To me, 4th round and beyond is pretty silly to expect much. a 1 in 5 chance means in every draft there are 6 quality starters drafted in 32 picks. Everything thinks their team will be one of the 6, but in reality the opposite is true.

Also for the scouts who were let go, it’s good to note that scouts earn their money by helping the team hit on talent from rounds 5-7…

We haven’t had success in those rounds which is why those scouts were let go, and some of them were before Poles got here. Poles is likely brining in more of “his guys”

A few things - we don't actually know why the scouts were let go and I don't think it's accurate to say that scouts' jobs are based primarily on late round draft performance.

In 2022, the Bears hit on an OT in the 5th round. It appears Terrell Smith, while not a starter due to the Bears strength at the position, may also be a quality CB, drafted in the 5th in 2023. So, I'm not sure I'd agree with the notion that the Bears have been striking out in later rounds. Given the combined hit rate in rounds 5-7 is about 29%, having hit on at least two players seems to mean the Bears are performing well in that regard.

[biggestbullsfan]

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I was team Justin but this is something he never truly got and I’m glad Caleb has shown he does.

Hopefully our offense clicks early. We need it. I’ve been talking too spicey friends who are Packer fans lol

[Hold That]

https://www.thehogsty.com/2020/04/23/the-odds-of-success-for-a-draft-pick-part-4/

This person did this exercise that many are talking about. His findings on whether a pick was 'successful' (4 years of starting in the NFL, which I think is a fair bar)

Success rate by round:
1st round: 70%
2nd round: 49%
3rd round: 29.19%
4th round: 20.30%
5th round: 14.42%
6th round: 8.84%
7th round: 6.40%

To me, 4th round and beyond is pretty silly to expect much. a 1 in 5 chance means in every draft there are 6 quality starters drafted in 32 picks. Everything thinks their team will be one of the 6, but in reality the opposite is true.

Also for the scouts who were let go, it’s good to note that scouts earn their money by helping the team hit on talent from rounds 5-7…

We haven’t had success in those rounds which is why those scouts were let go, and some of them were before Poles got here. Poles is likely brining in more of “his guys”

A few things - we don't actually know why the scouts were let go and I don't think it's accurate to say that scouts' jobs are based primarily on late round draft performance.

In 2022, the Bears hit on an OT in the 5th round. It appears Terrell Smith, while not a starter due to the Bears strength at the position, may also be a quality CB, drafted in the 5th in 2023. So, I'm not sure I'd agree with the notion that the Bears have been striking out in later rounds. Given the combined hit rate in rounds 5-7 is about 29%, having hit on at least two players seems to mean the Bears are performing well in that regard.

It all depends on who we passed on, and who was being vouched for over whom..

But I will tell you scouts are heavily evaluated by their information on players in the later round. That’s a known fact. Maybe you’re not aware, but if you have anyone in the know they’ll tell you this. Regardless of what the percentage is of success in those rounds, you’re hired and brought in to increase that teams success rate period.

Braxton was nice but one hit doesn’t secure your job for the next 5 years.

[jnrjr79]

Also for the scouts who were let go, it’s good to note that scouts earn their money by helping the team hit on talent from rounds 5-7…

We haven’t had success in those rounds which is why those scouts were let go, and some of them were before Poles got here. Poles is likely brining in more of “his guys”

A few things - we don't actually know why the scouts were let go and I don't think it's accurate to say that scouts' jobs are based primarily on late round draft performance.

In 2022, the Bears hit on an OT in the 5th round. It appears Terrell Smith, while not a starter due to the Bears strength at the position, may also be a quality CB, drafted in the 5th in 2023. So, I'm not sure I'd agree with the notion that the Bears have been striking out in later rounds. Given the combined hit rate in rounds 5-7 is about 29%, having hit on at least two players seems to mean the Bears are performing well in that regard.

It all depends on who we passed on, and who was being vouched for over whom..

But I will tell you scouts are heavily evaluated by their information on players in the later round. That’s a known fact. Maybe you’re not aware, but if you have anyone in the know they’ll tell you this. Regardless of what the percentage is of success in those rounds, you’re hired and brought in to increase that teams success rate period.

Braxton was nice but one hit doesn’t secure your job for the next 5 years.

Braxton was drafted two years ago. I'm going to assume whoever scouted him is still working for the Bears. A starting left tackle in the 5th is not merely "nice," lol.

[1985Bear]

https://www.thehogsty.com/2020/04/23/the-odds-of-success-for-a-draft-pick-part-4/

This person did this exercise that many are talking about. His findings on whether a pick was 'successful' (4 years of starting in the NFL, which I think is a fair bar)

Success rate by round:
1st round: 70%
2nd round: 49%
3rd round: 29.19%
4th round: 20.30%
5th round: 14.42%
6th round: 8.84%
7th round: 6.40%

To me, 4th round and beyond is pretty silly to expect much. a 1 in 5 chance means in every draft there are 6 quality starters drafted in 32 picks. Everything thinks their team will be one of the 6, but in reality the opposite is true.

Thanks for that link. By Position is really the best way I look at the data. Every year about 10 QBs get drafted but 30-36 WRs get drafted. This article uses a 4 year starter as successful draft pick. I tend to look at if they got a 2nd NfL contract as success rate. For QB, I use a top 10 player at the position as the criteria for success (2nd contract here also). For WR, I say success is a WR 1 or 2 on a team.

I have been building a similar model for QB & WR. Over the past 10 years, drafting WRs in rounds 4-7 have about a 5% success rate.


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[moorhosj]

Braxton was nice but one hit doesn’t secure your job for the next 5 years.

You are forgetting about Jack Sanborn and Tyson Bagent, signed as undrafted free agents. As for draft picks, Elijah Hicks, Terell Smith, and Ja'Tyre Carter have all started multiple games.

[NecessaryEvil]

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[sco]

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/quarterback-rankings-fantasy-football-2024-144112478.html

CW at 14 ahead of Stafford, Herbert and Rodgers...look I want CW to be good, but folks gotta temper their expectations of what rookie QB's do. Stroud was so much more the exception than the rule.

[dougthonus]

Interesting discussion. I feel like I'm correct, but I'd need a lot of time to gather my thoughts and conceptualize them. But because I'm both lazy and don't have that kind of time, I'll concede to your points.

The classic



I admit I haven't thought about this incredibly robustly, so it's possible there are errors in my thought process that I haven't considered.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/195249/revenue-of-the-chicago-bears-since-2006/

I believe the calculation would look like this though:

If you look at it this way, just quick google search, Bears revenue was 124M in 2001 and 556M in 2022

Dates aren't precise, just the ones I could get pulling up a 30 year chart through trial and error but I promise I'm not trying to cherry pick.
S&P value Jan/2001: 1342
S&P value Jan/2002: 4677

Bears $: worth 4.48x what it was in 2001 in 2022
S&P $: 3.48 what it was in 2001 in 2022

If you made 1% extra revenue in 2001 and invested it in the S&P500, you would have 1.24M *3.48 = 4.3152M dollars in 2022
If you made 1% extra revenue in 2022 then you'd have 5.56M more dollars

Thus to the extent you believe a draft pick can swing revenue, historically with the NFL's growth rate, you are better off gaining revenue later. Now you wouldn't have to invest in the S&P500 it was just something I tried to use as a reasonable investment, and there's no reason the NFL has to continue growing faster than the S&P500 either.

Also, like I said, I don't know that winning has a high correlation of revenue:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/193553/revenue-of-national-football-league-teams-in-2010/

Here's the 2022 data, I'm not sure what the Cowboys got going on there that the rest of the league doesn't or if there is some crazy error in it. But the Chiefs are lower half of the list despite having won the superbowl in 2020 and favorites to compete every year since. Just to show some data how winning isn't highly correlated to revenues in the NFL like it can be in other areas.

[Fl_Flash]

The entire financial system is built on the idea of Time Value of Money. There's a ton of empirical and intellectual "value" in that.

Time value of money is backed by inflation and changes in value of money. There is no discount rate for draft picks based on changes in the value of a pick in the future.

$10 today will have more buying power than $10 in 10 years.

Draft picks are not money. A 2nd round draft pick today is going to have the same odds of impacting this year's team as a 2nd round draft pick in 10 years has in impacting the team in 10 years.

The increased value of current draft picks is solely based on prevalence short term thinking of today's GMs because for their jobs, if they have more picks sooner, they will gain the benefit of those picks longer, but from a franchise perspective that is not true.

This is not a wholly accurate take.

A draft pick now has the ability to, in the present, impact a football team. Whereas a draft pick from the same round 10 years from now has no ability to impact a football team now. A second round draft pick now provides value now. A second round draft pick provides 10 years from now provides zero value now. Also, in opposition to your concept of Time Value and inflation - there really is no inflation with 2nd round pick to contend with. In terms of utility - a current second round pick now provides exactly the same utility as a second round pick 10 years from now. There is no eroding of the value of the pick due to inflation.

That's the whole concept of Time Value of Money. As you stated $10 is worth more to someone now that it is 10 years from now because the individual can either make use of the $10 in the present to benefit them, or invest the $10 so that 10 years from now it's grown to something greater than $10 - so that 10 years from now you either have $11 from investing which is more beneficial than the $10 that you now have 10 year in the future. $10 now gets me more now than the same $10 ten years from now due to inflation.

Since you cannot "invest" draft picks, then your down to current utility vs. future utility. Current utility will, almost always, outweigh future utility. Hence, a current 2nd rounder will hold greater value than a future 2nd rounder due to the concept that you have the utility of the current second rounder now as opposed to putting off the use of that second rounder for another year (or however far out you want to project it).

[dougthonus]

I think you're only making part of the argument here, though.


Aside from the success rate of a 2nd round pass rusher which is very low (I believe first round pass rusher success rate is just under 50%, if I recall correctly), there is this constant assumption that young, talented pass rushers hit free agency every year and want to join your team as well. And frankly, that is not often the case.

Take this year's free agency, Danielle Hunter (29 yo), was by far the most talented and likely will decline within next 2 years. And went to a contender. In other words, we could have easily struck out.

Meanwhile, the rest of the elite pass rushers either signed extensions with their team (Josh Allen) or were traded and then extended (Brian Burns).

So I think there is a major fallacy in thinking here that elite, young pass rushers are available in free agency to sign.

Yes, there is certainly the argument that if we didn't do this then we wouldn't have a guy this good, and the reverse argument is that if you have correctly modeled impact, then overpaying for impact at this position still hurts you and instead having a lesser line and more elite players in other places would help more than overpaying in this place.

But, to be clear, because I'm arguing about the points being presented to me and not describing a wholistic mantra that you can never deviate from, as I said, you can win a trade mathematically and lose due to talent evaluation, injury, or other factors. Consistently looking to win the trade mathematically stacks the odds in your favor, but it doesn't overcome all those other factors, and I agree there is something to opportunity and scarcity that come into play.

It could be that you need to model the true cost of getting such a player if you miss in the draft is much higher than the salary cost, because there is no availability for the reasons you state. That's definitely true of QBs as an example. If you were willing to pay 100M a year to a Patrick Mahomes quality QB, you still couldn't make it happen.

[Almost Retired]

Read on Twitter

We'll have 3 top 50 picks. We should be able to bolster the Defense quite a bit.

[JohnnyKILLroy]

Read on Twitter

We'll have 3 top 50 picks. We should be able to bolster the Defense quite a bit.

I think in the next couple of drafts we’re loading up BPA because our depth is good and drafting blue chip talent to replace our 25-30 yr old dudes. Poles is working the win now AND later angle.

[Almost Retired]

https://www.pff.com/news/draft-way-too-early-2025-nfl-mock-draft-james-pearce-jr-panthers

2025 Mock has us taking an EDGE at our projected #19 pick.......Jack Sawyer of Ohio State. Some really good interior Defensive linemen will be available, but the elite ones will be gone unless we move up. Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant of Michigan. Deone Walker of Kentucky. Howard Cross III of Notre Dame. Defense will be top heavy next year. This was the year to get a QB. Next Year Carson Beck, Shadeur Sanders and Quinn Ewers top the QB class. I'm not sold on any of them to be honest.

[Dresden]

Also for the scouts who were let go, it’s good to note that scouts earn their money by helping the team hit on talent from rounds 5-7…

We haven’t had success in those rounds which is why those scouts were let go, and some of them were before Poles got here. Poles is likely brining in more of “his guys”

A few things - we don't actually know why the scouts were let go and I don't think it's accurate to say that scouts' jobs are based primarily on late round draft performance.

In 2022, the Bears hit on an OT in the 5th round. It appears Terrell Smith, while not a starter due to the Bears strength at the position, may also be a quality CB, drafted in the 5th in 2023. So, I'm not sure I'd agree with the notion that the Bears have been striking out in later rounds. Given the combined hit rate in rounds 5-7 is about 29%, having hit on at least two players seems to mean the Bears are performing well in that regard.

It all depends on who we passed on, and who was being vouched for over whom..

But I will tell you scouts are heavily evaluated by their information on players in the later round. That’s a known fact. Maybe you’re not aware, but if you have anyone in the know they’ll tell you this. Regardless of what the percentage is of success in those rounds, you’re hired and brought in to increase that teams success rate period.

Braxton was nice but one hit doesn’t secure your job for the next 5 years.

Based on those numbers above, if you hit on one pick with your 5-6-7 rounders every 3 drafts, you're doing ok.

[fleet]

Read on Twitter

Rich mentioned on his show that the NFL told him to clear his schedule for a specific day either this week or next week (I forgot when) and he thinks its for the schedule announcement

I can’t remember which the Bears suck at more, MNF or SNF.

[Hold That]

Braxton was nice but one hit doesn’t secure your job for the next 5 years.

You are forgetting about Jack Sanborn and Tyson Bagent, signed as undrafted free agents. As for draft picks, Elijah Hicks, Terell Smith, and Ja'Tyre Carter have all started multiple games.

Carter and Hicks might not even make the roster truthfully and are bubble players heading into camp.

One of the scouts they let go were in charge of the midwestern region. Meaning if that player didn’t come from that region he likely didn’t have much to do with scouting him. The bears have 10 college scouts, we let go of two.

Jack Sandborn(midwest) is a nice pick up but he’s not giving you immunity in your next 3 drafts. It all depends on who we passed on, I’m not in those war rooms I don’t know who was up for debate and chosen over whom.