Dresden wrote:dougthonus wrote:Dresden wrote:And if he had taken Stroud, you could easily say that would have been a massive stroke of luck too, since the majority of analysts felt like Bryce Young was the better choice, and no one saw Stroud having the type of rookie season he had (and most likely would not have had with the Bears).
The thing about value is theoretical. It only translates into wins if the guys you pick end up being good. With Sweat, we got a guy who already had proven himself as being pretty good, and he proved that here. So part of the premium you paid to get him is due too the fact that you're getting a proven player, instead of some theoretical value of a draft pick. It's why the bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. The odds that a second round pick would be as productive as Sweat is pretty low.
It's fine.
It seems that everyone thinks when we were making win now trades when we were 3-5 and Poles didn't feel we were a terrible team but instead should add to it by vastly overpaying for a bust, and then losing every game the rest of the year and in actuality being the worst team in the NFL, that this was all part of his brilliance.
In the end some true statements:
1: He thought the team was worth adding on to and was trying to win
2: His assessment of the situation was so far off that we were the worst team in the league
3: It took a miracle of stupidity by Houston for us to get the #1 pick
4: Without all of the above (which would actually point to Poles being comically far off in his assessment and actions) we would not have had the #1 pick and none of the good things that have happened would have happened
Like I said, I'm not trying to rip Poles, but if you look at how we arrived at all the important parts of this situation that make it good, the key piece is based on a complete and utter misevaluation by Poles, happened in spite of Poles direct efforts to try to make it not happen, and were aided by a comic blunder by the Texans.
Poles made what ended up being an amazing trade out of that #1, Poles made some quality picks the next year as well.
I don't hate Poles or anything, I don't think he's awful like I would think AK or Pace were awful. I think he's fine. However, thematically, he does a lot of things that give away value, has had the most luck in the NFL in his tenure of any GM and isn't really a huge part of making that luck, but I do think strategically he is thinking the right way about timelines and big macro decisions which isn't something I would have said about Pace or AK.
No one is saying Poles is brilliant. that's a straw man argument. What I take exception to is people thinking he is ignorant- that he "doesn't understand the math" behind what constitutes a good trade or that "he doesn't have any clue as to how to build a team". I think those kinds of statements are really off base, even arrogant for the later claim.
I think Poles has done some great things (deciding to pass on a QB last year in a weak class and getting extra picks in this draft being the best) and some questionable things - spending so much on LB's last offseason while neglecting the O line and the D line.
When you look at the big picture, and compare where the Bears are today to where they were when he took over, I think he's done a fantastic job of rebuilding the team in just 3 years. He's had some luck in there, but even if we were walking away from this past draft with someone like Penix, I think we'd be in pretty good shape.
Yeah, I think overall, Poles has shown to be an above average GM so far. Yeah, he has missed on Claypool and some others such as Fields for a 6th (maybe 4th) but I feel he has nailed it in many regards and admitted mistakes for most part when messed up.
1) The tear down by trading Roquan to rebuild - took a lot of guts.
2) trading out of #1 last year to get the Haul. While I doubt many thought the Panthers would have been this bad, it was not a surprise we got a top 5-10 pick.
3) Getting assets and while we trade for Claypool/Sweat, we have continued to id for most part with mid-20's players and younger while maintaining future flexibility.
4) I mean in the last 2 offseasons, we have came away with Edmunds, Edwards, Stevenson, Wright, Dexter Jr., Everett, Swift, Allen, Moore, Billings, Byard, Rome, Williams, etc... That's more than half of our roster starting in 2 years time frame and many of those are near elite and especially if Caleb works out. I think the way Poles silenced Caleb's camp concerns and brought in the most talent of any #1 pick is pretty remarkable. Some luck played into this, but yes, I think Poles is pretty good at his job too. I would imagine next offseason, he will work on dline and oline to shore up.
