Bears 2024: 5.0 It's Caleb Williams time

[JohnnyKILLroy]

Keith Randolph Jr got some money

the Bears are signing the former Illinois defensive tackle to a three-year undrafted rookie contract and giving him a total of $220,000 in guaranteed money. Randolph will receive a $20,000 signing bonus and will have $200,000 of his base salary with the team guaranteed.

The Canadian OL got a 100k

[fleet]

Keith Randolph Jr got some money

the Bears are signing the former Illinois defensive tackle to a three-year undrafted rookie contract and giving him a total of $220,000 in guaranteed money. Randolph will receive a $20,000 signing bonus and will have $200,000 of his base salary with the team guaranteed.

The Canadian OL got a 100k

How did he not get drafted

[JohnnyKILLroy]

Keith Randolph Jr got some money

the Bears are signing the former Illinois defensive tackle to a three-year undrafted rookie contract and giving him a total of $220,000 in guaranteed money. Randolph will receive a $20,000 signing bonus and will have $200,000 of his base salary with the team guaranteed.

The Canadian OL got a 100k

How did he not get drafted

I don’t really follow Illini football but he’s got a horrible RAS score - he’s the Anti-Pole.

[dougthonus]

Keith Randolph Jr got some money

the Bears are signing the former Illinois defensive tackle to a three-year undrafted rookie contract and giving him a total of $220,000 in guaranteed money. Randolph will receive a $20,000 signing bonus and will have $200,000 of his base salary with the team guaranteed.

The Canadian OL got a 100k

How did he not get drafted

I know nothing about any of these guys really, but reading his prospect profile, he seems like a low upside guy that maybe best case is a space filling back up. Probably teams were aiming for higher upside with their late picks rather than taking a guy who might stick as an end of bench depth piece.

Seems like a very reasonable pick up as a UDFA though.

[fleet]

Keith Randolph Jr got some money

the Bears are signing the former Illinois defensive tackle to a three-year undrafted rookie contract and giving him a total of $220,000 in guaranteed money. Randolph will receive a $20,000 signing bonus and will have $200,000 of his base salary with the team guaranteed.

The Canadian OL got a 100k

How did he not get drafted

I know nothing about any of these guys really, but reading his prospect profile, he seems like a low upside guy that maybe best case is a space filling back up. Probably teams were aiming for higher upside with their late picks rather than taking a guy who might stick as an end of bench depth piece.

Seems like a very reasonable pick up as a UDFA though.

I saw that, but I was like he still could make the team based on need. Now the Bears are betting like they know already if they risk putting him on the practice squad he would be snapped up. That sounds like draftable player, at least in the 7th round.

[panthermark]

Keith Randolph Jr got some money

the Bears are signing the former Illinois defensive tackle to a three-year undrafted rookie contract and giving him a total of $220,000 in guaranteed money. Randolph will receive a $20,000 signing bonus and will have $200,000 of his base salary with the team guaranteed.

The Canadian OL got a 100k

How did he not get drafted

I don’t really follow Illini football but he’s got a horrible RAS score - he’s the Anti-Pole.

He's learning there is more to it than RAS.
VJJ, Claypool, D Robinson, etc....

[sco]

How did he not get drafted

I know nothing about any of these guys really, but reading his prospect profile, he seems like a low upside guy that maybe best case is a space filling back up. Probably teams were aiming for higher upside with their late picks rather than taking a guy who might stick as an end of bench depth piece.

Seems like a very reasonable pick up as a UDFA though.

I saw that, but I was like he still could make the team based on need. Now the Bears are betting like they know already if they risk putting him on the practice squad he would be snapped up. That sounds like draftable player, at least in the 7th round.

Can any Illini fans shed some color on Randolph?

[dougthonus]

I saw that, but I was like he still could make the team based on need. Now the Bears are betting like they know already if they risk putting him on the practice squad he would be snapped up. That sounds like draftable player, at least in the 7th round.

I just glanced at a couple sites on his prospect profile, one had him as a 6th/7th, one had him as a 7th, so seems like a guy that definitely could have been drafted situationally, and I agree, it makes sense that we probably liked him enough and thought the likelihood of someone else liking him similarly was high enough to extend some real cash.

In the grand scheme of thing, like most moves of this size/scope, probably amounts to nothing (low risk/low reward) but seems like a good / reasonable risk relative to the cost and our needs.

[JohnnyKILLroy]

How did he not get drafted

I don’t really follow Illini football but he’s got a horrible RAS score - he’s the Anti-Pole.

He's learning there is more to it than RAS.
VJJ, Claypool, D Robinson, etc....

God I hope not - give me all the athletic freaks if we’re gambling on guys developing into something.

[dougthonus]

I don’t really follow Illini football but he’s got a horrible RAS score - he’s the Anti-Pole.

He's learning there is more to it than RAS.
VJJ, Claypool, D Robinson, etc....

God I hope not - give me all the athletic freaks if we’re gambling on guys developing into something.

I think in the grand scheme of things, you want to have an MO of understanding what other people undervalue and then go there.

I have no idea how this plays out in the NFL since I don't follow it close enough, but if everyone is massively gambling on physical traits and underplaying skill / productivity then the value will be on the other end of that spectrum.

[Chicago-Bull-E]

Caleb and Rome were the bromance of the draft, but Fiske and Verse deserve a shoutout. Emotional scene when Fiske learns he’s drafted, and is back playing with Verse.

Watch on YouTube

[othawhitemeat]

I know nothing about any of these guys really, but reading his prospect profile, he seems like a low upside guy that maybe best case is a space filling back up. Probably teams were aiming for higher upside with their late picks rather than taking a guy who might stick as an end of bench depth piece.

Seems like a very reasonable pick up as a UDFA though.

I saw that, but I was like he still could make the team based on need. Now the Bears are betting like they know already if they risk putting him on the practice squad he would be snapped up. That sounds like draftable player, at least in the 7th round.

Can any Illini fans shed some color on Randolph?

Had a really good junior year and probably would have been a borderline 3rd round player, but I believe was slowed down by injuries last year. Had some ankle/foot problems. If he can recover, while not a consistent disruptor, a solid player that can hold line of attack. To me, a good backup player that should make the team and produce if healthy. Junior year, had 4.5 sacks with 50ish tackles on one of best defenses in the country.

[JohnnyKILLroy]

He's learning there is more to it than RAS.
VJJ, Claypool, D Robinson, etc....

God I hope not - give me all the athletic freaks if we’re gambling on guys developing into something.

I think in the grand scheme of things, you want to have an MO of understanding what other people undervalue and then go there.

I have no idea how this plays out in the NFL since I don't follow it close enough, but if everyone is massively gambling on physical traits and underplaying skill / productivity then the value will be on the other end of that spectrum.

Yes that’s the flip side

In our case I hope we trust our player development personnel enough that we coach up our plus plus athletes. I think the development part is possible whereas I don’t think guys are becoming plus plus athletes any time soon.

[Almost Retired]

Keith Randolph Jr got some money

the Bears are signing the former Illinois defensive tackle to a three-year undrafted rookie contract and giving him a total of $220,000 in guaranteed money. Randolph will receive a $20,000 signing bonus and will have $200,000 of his base salary with the team guaranteed.

The Canadian OL got a 100k

\Not bad for what is probably a practice squad guy this coming season. He's got some talent but needs coaching on his footwork in particular, and he needs to train to boost his lateral speed.

[Dresden]

And if he had taken Stroud, you could easily say that would have been a massive stroke of luck too, since the majority of analysts felt like Bryce Young was the better choice, and no one saw Stroud having the type of rookie season he had (and most likely would not have had with the Bears).

The thing about value is theoretical. It only translates into wins if the guys you pick end up being good. With Sweat, we got a guy who already had proven himself as being pretty good, and he proved that here. So part of the premium you paid to get him is due too the fact that you're getting a proven player, instead of some theoretical value of a draft pick. It's why the bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. The odds that a second round pick would be as productive as Sweat is pretty low.

It's fine.

It seems that everyone thinks when we were making win now trades when we were 3-5 and Poles didn't feel we were a terrible team but instead should add to it by vastly overpaying for a bust, and then losing every game the rest of the year and in actuality being the worst team in the NFL, that this was all part of his brilliance.

In the end some true statements:
1: He thought the team was worth adding on to and was trying to win
2: His assessment of the situation was so far off that we were the worst team in the league
3: It took a miracle of stupidity by Houston for us to get the #1 pick
4: Without all of the above (which would actually point to Poles being comically far off in his assessment and actions) we would not have had the #1 pick and none of the good things that have happened would have happened

Like I said, I'm not trying to rip Poles, but if you look at how we arrived at all the important parts of this situation that make it good, the key piece is based on a complete and utter misevaluation by Poles, happened in spite of Poles direct efforts to try to make it not happen, and were aided by a comic blunder by the Texans.

Poles made what ended up being an amazing trade out of that #1, Poles made some quality picks the next year as well.

I don't hate Poles or anything, I don't think he's awful like I would think AK or Pace were awful. I think he's fine. However, thematically, he does a lot of things that give away value, has had the most luck in the NFL in his tenure of any GM and isn't really a huge part of making that luck, but I do think strategically he is thinking the right way about timelines and big macro decisions which isn't something I would have said about Pace or AK.

No one is saying Poles is brilliant. that's a straw man argument. What I take exception to is people thinking he is ignorant- that he "doesn't understand the math" behind what constitutes a good trade or that "he doesn't have any clue as to how to build a team". I think those kinds of statements are really off base, even arrogant for the later claim.

I think Poles has done some great things (deciding to pass on a QB last year in a weak class and getting extra picks in this draft being the best) and some questionable things - spending so much on LB's last offseason while neglecting the O line and the D line.

When you look at the big picture, and compare where the Bears are today to where they were when he took over, I think he's done a fantastic job of rebuilding the team in just 3 years. He's had some luck in there, but even if we were walking away from this past draft with someone like Penix, I think we'd be in pretty good shape.

[Dresden]

Yahoo Sports gave Bears an A-:

I had Amegadjie (-1) as OT12, and with tackles coming at a premium getting him essentially at CBB projections is a coup. Tory Taylor (-98) is a supremely talented specialist in R4, which is actually where we’ve been seeing the elite K/P go in recent years. Booker (+59) in R5 is a smoking value, as Chicago focused on quality over quantity in their top-heavy 2024 class. Tough to argue with this class outside of a slight reach for a punter.

[Dresden]

Note that they said although a slight reach on the punter, that's where elite K/P have gone in recent years. I think two punters were taken in the 4th in 2022 (Ravens and Bills I believe) and one in the 4th in 2019 (Niners). So not exactly terrible organizations that are taking punters at that point in the draft.

[Dresden]

One other thing on Poles, you can say he's just been average, and of course they haven't won anything yet, but I bet if you polled Bears fans, they would say this is the most optimistic they've been about the Bears since the teams of the 80's. So Poles has put them in a better position that quite a few other mgt. teams that they've had. And maybe the bar has been set very low. In any case, given that history of ineptitude, Poles "averageness" looks pretty good right now.

[dougthonus]

No one is saying Poles is brilliant. that's a straw man argument.

Most definitely not my impression. Poles looks like he's absolutely teflon based on the responses I have gotten for posting things stating some concerns while saying that overall, he's done a lot of good things and on a macro level has implemented a good strategy.

What I take exception to is people thinking he is ignorant- that he "doesn't understand the math" behind what constitutes a good trade or that "he doesn't have any clue as to how to build a team". I think those kinds of statements are really off base, even arrogant for the later claim.

It's not my place to decide what you should take exception to and what you shouldn't, but to try to explain, there are moves that are good mathematically and there are moves that are good with talent evaluation. You can make a trade that is good mathematically and get your ass kicked if your evaluation isn't also good. Making a good mathematical move doesn't guarantee success.

My belief (and one you absolutely do not need to share) is that the talent evaluation across the league is basically a wash, and thus, you should make the mathematical play as much as possible and that over time, you will win by doing this. Poles, generally, has not done that, and so it is a concern for me.

Not all of his moves fit in that formula by any stretch. He also makes some good mathematical moves, but he seems to go to it a lot, and I think that ultimately, it's something I hope I see him change over time.

I think Poles has done some great things (deciding to pass on a QB last year in a weak class and getting extra picks in this draft being the best) and some questionable things - spending so much on LB's last offseason while neglecting the O line and the D line.

When you look at the big picture, and compare where the Bears are today to where they were when he took over, I think he's done a fantastic job of rebuilding the team in just 3 years. He's had some luck in there, but even if we were walking away from this past draft with someone like Penix, I think we'd be in pretty good shape.

I'm happy with the big picture too, and I never stated otherwise, and in fact I reiterated I was happy with the big picture on numerous occasions. I've pointed out some things I hope he improves on, and the things that have gone well that I have posted have generally been fully ignored, and the only thing people have replied to are the parts where I think he can improve. The focus of the discussion on only points of disagreement probably makes my view on Poles look considerably more negative than it is.

[Ice Man]

You can make a trade that is good mathematically and get your ass kicked if your evaluation isn't also good.

Such as trading up your 16th and 19th picks for the 9th selection, then to pick Doug McDermott?