Bears 2024: 5.0 It's Caleb Williams time

[Dresden]

USA Today (A+):

Last season’s trade deadline move for DE Montez Sweat for a second-rounder was the right call, expensive as it was. Round 5 pass rusher Austin Booker from Kansas has a chance to really shine on an already fortified defense. Even impressive Iowa P Tory Taylor is a weapon – and one getting some early ribbing from Williams.

[Dresden]

From Kiper (B):

“Kiran Amegadjie (75) is a project offensive tackle coming off a partially torn quad injury,” Kiper wrote. “His physical traits are intriguing. I didn't love a team with only a handful of selections taking a punter in Round 4, but at least Tory Taylor (122) was the best at his position. Austin Booker (144) had eight sacks last season and could be a situational pass-rusher.”

He graded the Bears down for their lack of picks.

[nomorezorro]

The part that we are missing in this conversation, is that there was no imperative to have 28 year old Montez Sweat on this team.

montez sweat was 27 years, 2 months old when we traded for him and continues to be 27 years old

[NecessaryEvil]

Read on Twitter

Imagine what he had, to what he HAS

[fleet]

The part that we are missing in this conversation, is that there was no imperative to have 28 year old Montez Sweat on this team.

montez sweat was 27 years, 2 months old when we traded for him and continues to be 27 years old

How about after his birthday in September? What he is right now in April means nothing as far as that goes. He’s a older guy we don’t actually need in the present as much as we need a younger guy on a rookie deal in sync with this team’s timeline. And the money can be spent elsewhere when the time comes.

[nomorezorro]

maybe i was confused about what point you were trying to make then, because in a subsequent post you said you would understand trying to add a 28 year old to this team because we're trying to win something over the next two years

the sweat trade was at least partially motivated by the idea that this was not a compelling draft class for edge rushers. considering that none went off the board between the 27th and 56th picks in the draft, that seems to be an accurate read, and having the 40th overall pick wouldn't have done much to help us address that particular deficiency on the roster

[fleet]

maybe i was confused about what point you were trying to make then, because in a subsequent post you said you would understand trying to add a 28 year old to this team because we're trying to win something over the next two years

I still would have a conflicting emotional response to making a Sweat deal for the upcoming year. But the logic makes more sense now after the Bears seem to have a squad and quarterback in place that can conceivably win games. Although still a year early if you asked me for a deal like that.

the sweat trade was at least partially motivated by the idea that this was not a compelling draft class for edge rushers. considering that none went off the board between the 27th and 56th picks in the draft, that seems to be an accurate read, and having the 40th overall pick wouldn't have done much to help us address that particular deficiency on the roster

So we draft something else in the second round. Maybe T'Vondre Sweat is wearing Blue n Orange in OTAs this summer instead of Montez Sweat. I don’t know. We don’t HAVE to have the big contract older defensive end right now. I prefer the alternative universe where we have 2 more second round players and cap space instead of jumping at Claypool and Sweat.. I just don’t agree with the narrative that these were must do acquisitions of no other way to be better. Let’s look at what Poles has gotten out of the second round in years One and two. Dexter, Stevenson, Brisker, Gordon. Having some more of that, and the cap space, nothing wrong with that at all.

[Susan]

maybe i was confused about what point you were trying to make then, because in a subsequent post you said you would understand trying to add a 28 year old to this team because we're trying to win something over the next two years

the sweat trade was at least partially motivated by the idea that this was not a compelling draft class for edge rushers. considering that none went off the board between the 27th and 56th picks in the draft, that seems to be an accurate read, and having the 40th overall pick wouldn't have done much to help us address that particular deficiency on the roster

Don't forget to mention that Brian Burns cost more in both draft capital and AAV and they're roughly the same level player.

High end DEs just entering their prime don't hit the open market often and if they do - you're looking at competing with 31 other teams to get them to come here.

[Susan]

I remember when certain people celebrated Jimmy Butler getting traded, Thibs getting run out of town and Hoiberg getting hired as his replacement and then look at their thoughts on the current landscape and things begin to make more sense.

[fleet]

I remember when certain people celebrated Jimmy Butler getting traded, Thibs getting run out of town and Hoiberg getting hired as his replacement and then look at their thoughts on the current landscape and things begin to make more sense.

I remember when certain people defended Ryan Pace and his work to the end. Look at their thoughts on the current landscape.

No idea who you’re aiming at. If me, adjust your sights massively, missed.

[Susan]

check your PMs ~ fleet

[fleet]

https://www.windycitygridiron.com/2024/4/27/24143316/2024-nfl-draft-chicago-bears-udfa-jamree-kromah-james-madison-scouting-report-film-study

Jamree Kromah UDFA D-line project for the new D line coach

[dougthonus]

Just because a trade or a draft pick doesn't work out doesn't mean it was a mistake. You aren't going to be able to foretell what's going to happen with each move you make.

I agree. Thematically, trading draft picks for guys on expiring deals is something that I would say is almost exclusively a bad idea, and it seems to be one of Poles go to moves. The reason it is bad is because in a hard capped league, you win by having the best total value per dollar, and draft picks in the first 3 rounds typically have very high value per dollar, and FAs typically have very low value per dollar, this type of transaction then is highly likely to be a net loser in value per dollar.

As for luck, even if CAR had not ended up with the worst record in the league last year, that trade was still a huge win for CHI. Poles knew this would be a much better year for QB's than last year, and for waiting a year, he added DJ Moore, Tyrique Stevenson, Darnell Wright, and a '25 2nd round pick plus the CAR pick.

Poles was lucky to have the #1 pick to trade to Carolina, it took a colossal error on the part of Houston winning the finale for that to happen. When he had that pick, a franchise QB (Stroud) was available, and he didn't take him and instead gambled on Fields. Hopefully Williams is as good or better. Fingers crossed.

[JockItch43]

Read on Twitter

Imagine what he had, to what he HAS

He basically played on the college version of the 2022 Bears team... and still put up numbers. No premium weapons, o-line was atrocious (maybe worse than that Bears team), defense... what defense?

No way that team should have been ranked top 10, let alone ranked at all at any point of the season with the talent they had.

[jnrjr79]

trading next years 4th for a 5th reeks of a guy who thinks his job is on the line this season. not a guy who should expect to be around a long time

use THIS year's 4th on the guy if you like him so much. save next year's 4th and skip the punter. christ

That's pretty much the value of a 5th this year- a 4th next year. So he got equal value, and just accelerated the process by a year. What's to complain about?

nonsensical statement. total fallacy. there is no "time value of draft pick" like there is a time value of money. GMs do that **** when their jobs are on the line. THAT's when this year's pick becomes more valuable

It’s universally understood that you discount a next-year pick by one round for trade value purposes.

[jnrjr79]

Are we ruling out sarcasm? IDK know about that comment.

too detailed in its defense to be sarcasm

It’s like going from sublime to the absurd.

He obviously supports the pick, but if you have any sense of Fishbain’s personality from podcasts and the like, it’s clearly also tongue-in-cheek.

[JockItch43]

maybe i was confused about what point you were trying to make then, because in a subsequent post you said you would understand trying to add a 28 year old to this team because we're trying to win something over the next two years

the sweat trade was at least partially motivated by the idea that this was not a compelling draft class for edge rushers. considering that none went off the board between the 27th and 56th picks in the draft, that seems to be an accurate read, and having the 40th overall pick wouldn't have done much to help us address that particular deficiency on the roster

Don't forget to mention that Brian Burns cost more in both draft capital and AAV and they're roughly the same level player.

High end DEs just entering their prime don't hit the open market often and if they do - you're looking at competing with 31 other teams to get them to come here.

And odds are whatever team grabbed Sweat in a mid-season trade would do their best to lock him up so he wouldn't even hit the open market, just like the Bears did. Trading for him was really the only realistic shot.

[fleet]

That's pretty much the value of a 5th this year- a 4th next year. So he got equal value, and just accelerated the process by a year. What's to complain about?

nonsensical statement. total fallacy. there is no "time value of draft pick" like there is a time value of money. GMs do that **** when their jobs are on the line. THAT's when this year's pick becomes more valuable

It’s universally understood that you discount a next-year pick by one round for trade value purposes.

SOP on deals with picks.

Even if the Bears were not in this situation, I would like the move. Poles takes shots at guys in the draft I have been waiting forever a Bears GM to do, and rarely did. Size speed length and athleticism usually prerequisites. Considering the miss rate on players in general, why not roll the dice on traits in later rounds as long as the guy indicates a good head on his shoulder?. My only question right now is that given the dearth of highly rated edge guys in this draft, a guy sinking instead of rising is a little bit of a red flag from a fan point of view. And also, Buffalo actually drafted an edge later in the same round after Booker went. Booker was not hot property. But, if Poles was convicted to make the trade based on anything significant other than pure desperation of circumstances, then pull the trigger.

[jnrjr79]

What are the “win now” moves he made during the tank?

Moves like trading future picks for Claypool and Sweat.

[/quote]

I don’t know whether the Bears were ever tanking during the Poles regime, but they definitely were not tanking last year when they traded for Sweat.

[jnrjr79]

All GM success relies on luck. The Nuggets passed on Jokic in the first round. The Patriots passed on Brady in the first 5 rounds. Krause didn’t want to sign Rodman.

Sure. I agree completely.

I'm concerned with the parts of his job that aren't based on luck. As an example, on three occasions he's given up significant draft capital to acquire a player on an expiring deal that will then soon be paid at market value. That doesn't bring excess value to your franchise, it subtracts it. You are now paying the same money and out the high value draft pick.

IMO, this is obviously untrue. Sure, you can’t make a huge habit of this, but the thing about trading for a player like Sweat is you’re removing the uncertainty that goes into a 2nd round pick, which is probably going to hit less than half of the time. When you know you’re going to have a rookie QB on a cost-controlled contract, that’s precisely when moves like these are savvy. But if Caleb is a hit and signs a huge deal some years down the line, you’re not going to have the financial luxury of that sort of thing anymore (and team-building will get a lot harder).