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Your offseason plans for the Bulls

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Re: Your offseason plans for the Bulls 

Post#161 » by d boy gentleman » Fri May 3, 2024 2:43 pm

Andi Obst wrote:
d boy gentleman wrote:
Andi Obst wrote:
Insanity.

Starting your rebuild by dumping a 24-year-old on a great deal.


'Tearing down to the studs" means just that: Tearing it completely down. Ayo is a nice player, but not the type of player that is a franchise player that you build around. They most certainly won't stick around in a rebuild, so trade him away, accept that we have waived the white flag and have accepted that we will not be a top team in the East and simply sink to bottom and wallow in obscurity for a top 3 pick and the chance to draft a true franchise player


None of that makes any sense to me, I'm sorry.

Dumping a good young player on a good deal is simply bad. Always.


A rebuild is necessary. As stated, Ayo is not a franchise player and probably won’t stick around for the duration of the rebuild as he’s only on a three year deal. I’m not saying to sell low, but if you can get a late 1st or 2 2nds for Ayo, you do it.

You do the same with Coby; sell high as well.

Love both as players but, if you rebuild, you got to tear it all down and start from scratch. That involves sinking to the bottom and losing as many games as possible to be in the bottom 3. That way, we can draft our franchise player and build around him.
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Re: Your offseason plans for the Bulls 

Post#162 » by jnrjr79 » Fri May 3, 2024 3:24 pm

d boy gentleman wrote:
Andi Obst wrote:
d boy gentleman wrote:
'Tearing down to the studs" means just that: Tearing it completely down. Ayo is a nice player, but not the type of player that is a franchise player that you build around. They most certainly won't stick around in a rebuild, so trade him away, accept that we have waived the white flag and have accepted that we will not be a top team in the East and simply sink to bottom and wallow in obscurity for a top 3 pick and the chance to draft a true franchise player


None of that makes any sense to me, I'm sorry.

Dumping a good young player on a good deal is simply bad. Always.


A rebuild is necessary. As stated, Ayo is not a franchise player and probably won’t stick around for the duration of the rebuild as he’s only on a three year deal. I’m not saying to sell low, but if you can get a late 1st or 2 2nds for Ayo, you do it.

You do the same with Coby; sell high as well.

Love both as players but, if you rebuild, you got to tear it all down and start from scratch. That involves sinking to the bottom and losing as many games as possible to be in the bottom 3. That way, we can draft our franchise player and build around him.


This doesn't make a lot of sense. The idea of a rebuild is to focus on the developing the young players whose roles were smaller because they were playing behind vets. The Bulls would be bad enough if their two best players are Coby and Ayo that they would still tank effectively. Trading Ayo for a late first or two seconds would be criminal asset management.
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Re: Your offseason plans for the Bulls 

Post#163 » by Chi town » Fri May 3, 2024 3:27 pm

jnrjr79 wrote:
d boy gentleman wrote:
Andi Obst wrote:
None of that makes any sense to me, I'm sorry.

Dumping a good young player on a good deal is simply bad. Always.


A rebuild is necessary. As stated, Ayo is not a franchise player and probably won’t stick around for the duration of the rebuild as he’s only on a three year deal. I’m not saying to sell low, but if you can get a late 1st or 2 2nds for Ayo, you do it.

You do the same with Coby; sell high as well.

Love both as players but, if you rebuild, you got to tear it all down and start from scratch. That involves sinking to the bottom and losing as many games as possible to be in the bottom 3. That way, we can draft our franchise player and build around him.


This doesn't make a lot of sense. The idea of a rebuild is to focus on the developing the young players whose roles were smaller because they were playing behind vets. The Bulls would be bad enough if their two best players are Coby and Ayo that they would still tank effectively. Trading Ayo for a late first or two seconds would be criminal asset management.


Exactly.

If anything you let them cook in an expanded role and then trade them for even more.
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Re: Your offseason plans for the Bulls 

Post#164 » by drosestruts » Fri May 3, 2024 3:34 pm

I think the idea of trading Coby and Ayo isn't without merit.

It's difficult enough to acquire talent.

It's even harder for that talent to align on the same timeline.

Think of the D. Rose era.

We had MVP Rose who never overlapped with DPOY Noah who never overlapped with All-star Butler. Had we somehow magically aligned those timelines I think we win a championship, but we didn't so....

If you trade our good veterans over 28 for drafts assets - by the time those drafted players are good where are Coby and Ayo?? Their contracts are great value but only for 2 more seasons. What year will those picks even be in? How long will they themselves take to develop? You see here and around the league young players are taking time to fully develop into impactful player.

Not to mention the players/contract likely to return the best assets are Coby and Ayo (well Caruso probably the top one, but them right after).

And you know what helps in a rebuild? Good draft assets.
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Re: Your offseason plans for the Bulls 

Post#165 » by jnrjr79 » Fri May 3, 2024 3:36 pm

drosestruts wrote:I think the idea of trading Coby and Ayo isn't without merit.

It's difficult enough to acquire talent.

It's even harder for that talent to align on the same timeline.

Think of the D. Rose era.

We had MVP Rose who never overlapped with DPOY Noah who never overlapped with All-star Butler. Had we somehow magically aligned those timelines I think we win a championship, but we didn't so....

If you trade our good veterans over 28 for drafts assets - by the time those drafted players are good where are Coby and Ayo?? Their contracts are great value but only for 2 more seasons. What year will those picks even be in? How long will they themselves take to develop? You see here and around the league young players are taking time to fully develop into impactful player.

Not to mention the players/contract likely to return the best assets are Coby and Ayo (well Caruso probably the top one, but them right after).

And you know what helps in a rebuild? Good draft assets.


It's not that you wouldn't trade them. It's the specific suggestion that Ayo should be traded for as little as two second round picks that makes no sense.

Both Coby and Ayo or a big-time bargain contracts. So you should be trading them for actual meaningful returns or letting them "cook" without the older guys on the roster to up their values further by next year's deadline.
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Re: Your offseason plans for the Bulls 

Post#166 » by DuckIII » Fri May 3, 2024 4:10 pm

Chi town wrote:
DuckIII wrote:
Chi town wrote:Here goes…

Trade Vuc and Caruso for expiring filler and a 1st.

Let DDR walk.

Let Lonzo go with medical exemption.

Sign Bigs and Shooting. Take picks for bad salary.

Draft shooting DaSilva/Shannon

Keep Zach to let him cook as first option in fast paced modern offense. Trade him if you get a good package.

Coby/Ayo
Zach/
Pat/Shannon
DaSilva/Philipps
Drummond/FA Big


I really like this plan. A lot. You’re not secretly AK by any chance are you?


Nah. AK is delusional. He wants to win instead of building a winner.

What’s here is the simple fair minded approach to building a team that can compete and attract a key piece to make them a perennial playoff team and hopefully contender.


Damn. I was hoping AK woke up and was suddenly competent.
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Re: Your offseason plans for the Bulls 

Post#167 » by DuckIII » Fri May 3, 2024 4:27 pm

drosestruts wrote:I think the idea of trading Coby and Ayo isn't without merit.


It is at the value you are putting on those trades. If you can package them together or with others to get even better value in return, you do it. But a late first for Coby and 2 seconds for Ayo is massively below their value.

Coby is now playing like a 7th pick, and Ayo is playing like a late lottery pick. And by that I mean they are playing like that even for 7th and late lotto picks who in fact do succeed. I’m not even calculating all of the players drafted at those positions who fail.

Moreover, a team led by Coby and Ayo as its two main players is going to suck. It’s not an anti-tank move to keep them. At their age, quality, and contracts they are basically the two guys on the team at the absolute bottom of the “trade to rebuild” list.
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Re: Your offseason plans for the Bulls 

Post#168 » by TheJordanRule » Fri May 3, 2024 4:37 pm

DuckIII wrote:
drosestruts wrote:I think the idea of trading Coby and Ayo isn't without merit.


It is at the value you are putting on those trades. If you can package them together or with others to get even better value in return, you do it. But a late first for Coby and 2 seconds for Ayo is massively below their value.

Coby is now playing like a 7th pick, and Ayo is playing like a late lottery pick. And by that I mean they are playing like that even for 7th and late lotto picks who in fact do succeed. I’m not even calculating all of the players drafted at those positions who fail.

Moreover, a team led by Coby and Ayo as its two main players is going to suck. It’s not an anti-tank move to keep them. At their age, quality, and contracts they are basically the two guys on the team at the absolute bottom of the “trade to rebuild” list.


I don't fault AK for undervaluing draft picks and favoring quick "get back to winning" schemes. I fault them for their slow and inept execution. We have been a bad team for the last two years minimum, and they're keeping our aging, failing core intact. Time to trade these dudes for young prospects or picks.
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Re: Your offseason plans for the Bulls 

Post#169 » by burlydee » Fri May 3, 2024 5:48 pm

I'm surprised so many people think Demar is guaranteed to come back. I think that is the biggest chip to fall, even before Lavine.

I think Demar is going to have suitors. Everyone kind of chuckled when he said he wanted to play in NY, Miami or Philly, but I think it's a real possibility he ends up in one of those places. If Demar wants to leave, I wonder how much that shifts focus on Zach and a full rebuild.
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Re: Your offseason plans for the Bulls 

Post#170 » by jnrjr79 » Fri May 3, 2024 6:20 pm

burlydee wrote:I'm surprised so many people think Demar is guaranteed to come back. I think that is the biggest chip to fall, even before Lavine.

I think Demar is going to have suitors. Everyone kind of chuckled when he said he wanted to play in NY, Miami or Philly, but I think it's a real possibility he ends up in one of those places. If Demar wants to leave, I wonder how much that shifts focus on Zach and a full rebuild.


I agree DeMar will have suitors, but for him to end up in NY or Miami, they have to be willing to pay more than the Bulls are willing to pay and they have to be willing to make a trade for him. Philly is easier since they'll have cap space, but he seems to be a less great fit there than some of their other potential options, though still a plausible match.
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Re: Your offseason plans for the Bulls 

Post#171 » by burlydee » Fri May 3, 2024 6:26 pm

jnrjr79 wrote:
burlydee wrote:I'm surprised so many people think Demar is guaranteed to come back. I think that is the biggest chip to fall, even before Lavine.

I think Demar is going to have suitors. Everyone kind of chuckled when he said he wanted to play in NY, Miami or Philly, but I think it's a real possibility he ends up in one of those places. If Demar wants to leave, I wonder how much that shifts focus on Zach and a full rebuild.


I agree DeMar will have suitors, but for him to end up in NY or Miami, they have to be willing to pay more than the Bulls are willing to pay and they have to be willing to make a trade for him. Philly is easier since they'll have cap space, but he seems to be a less great fit there than some of their other potential options, though still a plausible match.


I think Demar would go to NY for less money. Not sure how much less. I think he really wants to be competitive next season.
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Re: Your offseason plans for the Bulls 

Post#172 » by dougthonus » Fri May 3, 2024 6:32 pm

DuckIII wrote:Moreover, a team led by Coby and Ayo as its two main players is going to suck. It’s not an anti-tank move to keep them. At their age, quality, and contracts they are basically the two guys on the team at the absolute bottom of the “trade to rebuild” list.


They're both going to be UFAs in 2 years.

At that point, who knows what their contracts will look like as two years is a long time, but I will throw out two scenarios:

1: They continue with iterative improvements and also get lots of shots Coby is a 20/7 guy around 39% from 3 and Ayo is a 17/5/5 guy with good defense and a good 3. Neither are starts, but both are clear starting caliber players with possibly some room to grow still.

In this scenario, both guys probably get at least the 25% max.

2: They do not make improvements and in fact regress over time, and are maybe MLE type players that are best suited for playing 20 minutes off the bench. At this point, they are not really relevant to our plan.

In either of those scenarios, I would trade them for decent first round picks right now to foster a rebuild starting in 2+ years. I'd be looking for 1sts that have a shot at being in the lottery (even if protected from the top 5 or so) and seem highly likely to be in the top 20. Maybe two slightly worse picks vs 1 better pick depending.

If the offer is what you say (late 1st for Coby and a couple 2nd for Ayo), then I'd hang on to them. I think the offer would be closer to what I just said though. If I'm SA, I would consider giving the Bulls back their 2025 pick and maybe a lotto protected 1st to pair Coby with Wemby (unless a different team would give me a better player for the same deal). That said, who knows, you might be right, I might be wrong in terms of offers.

I don't view either as "critical" to trade in a rebuild, but they aren't at the bottom, because their contract situation is going to stink in 2 years, and we aren't going to be any good the next 2 years. They are unlikely to be meaningful assets on their next deals for a rebuilding team, and it's hard to imagine any scenario we aren't a rebuilding team in 2 years.

Obviously if you can get anything for Vuc or DeMar or Zach in a rebuild scenario you should do it, but you probably have to pay to get Vuc off the roster (that obviously does not help a rebuild), you might have to pay to get Zach off the roster (would not help the rebuild), and trading DeMar would only be a S&T and thus unlikely to bring back anything meaningful (which would also not help the rebuild except perhaps making you worse to get a better pick of your own).

No one else has a long enough deal or enough value to warrant discussing in a trade except Caruso, whom probably is by far the most obvious trade candidate in a rebuild scenario, but Coby / Ayo are probably the next two best candidates if you actually want to rebuild and realize you're going to need two gap years.

That said, all moot, as we aren't going to rebuild.
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Re: Your offseason plans for the Bulls 

Post#173 » by League Circles » Fri May 3, 2024 6:40 pm

d boy gentleman wrote:
Andi Obst wrote:
d boy gentleman wrote:
'Tearing down to the studs" means just that: Tearing it completely down. Ayo is a nice player, but not the type of player that is a franchise player that you build around. They most certainly won't stick around in a rebuild, so trade him away, accept that we have waived the white flag and have accepted that we will not be a top team in the East and simply sink to bottom and wallow in obscurity for a top 3 pick and the chance to draft a true franchise player


None of that makes any sense to me, I'm sorry.

Dumping a good young player on a good deal is simply bad. Always.


A rebuild is necessary. As stated, Ayo is not a franchise player and probably won’t stick around for the duration of the rebuild as he’s only on a three year deal. I’m not saying to sell low, but if you can get a late 1st or 2 2nds for Ayo, you do it.

You do the same with Coby; sell high as well.

Love both as players but, if you rebuild, you got to tear it all down and start from scratch. That involves sinking to the bottom and losing as many games as possible to be in the bottom 3. That way, we can draft our franchise player and build around him.

It's EXTREMELY unlikely that just "being in the bottom 3" will yield a franchise player worth building around. Even if we do it for several years in a row. I mean, we've had all these top 3 picks in the last quarter century:

Brand
Chandler
JWill
Tyrus
Gordon
Rose


Only 1 of those 6 guys was close to worthy of "building a team" around. And if we extend it to top 4 picks, we add Curry, Fizer, and Patrick Williams.

Meanwhile, 6 of 8 top seeds in the playoffs this are led by guys drafted outside the top 10 lol. It's hard to understand why people still have this mentality.
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Re: Your offseason plans for the Bulls 

Post#174 » by Red8911 » Fri May 3, 2024 6:47 pm

burlydee wrote:I'm surprised so many people think Demar is guaranteed to come back. I think that is the biggest chip to fall, even before Lavine.

I think Demar is going to have suitors. Everyone kind of chuckled when he said he wanted to play in NY, Miami or Philly, but I think it's a real possibility he ends up in one of those places. If Demar wants to leave, I wonder how much that shifts focus on Zach and a full rebuild.

Plan is to keep Demar and are offering him really good money. It is also known that Demar would prefer to stay in Chicago as well. Bulls will make changes to the roster this offseason to try to get better and that should satisfy him.

Can things fall apart during negotiations ? Ofcourse he’s a FA but as far as we know it looks like Demar will resign. In the end money talks, is another team going to give him 40 mil or anything close ? If not then it’s a lock. No way Demar is taking a pay cut on his last big contract as a pro.

As for Zach he’s getting traded whether Demar stays or leaves. Bulls and Zach relationship is over and both sides are ready to move on.
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Re: Your offseason plans for the Bulls 

Post#175 » by jnrjr79 » Fri May 3, 2024 6:59 pm

burlydee wrote:
jnrjr79 wrote:
burlydee wrote:I'm surprised so many people think Demar is guaranteed to come back. I think that is the biggest chip to fall, even before Lavine.

I think Demar is going to have suitors. Everyone kind of chuckled when he said he wanted to play in NY, Miami or Philly, but I think it's a real possibility he ends up in one of those places. If Demar wants to leave, I wonder how much that shifts focus on Zach and a full rebuild.


I agree DeMar will have suitors, but for him to end up in NY or Miami, they have to be willing to pay more than the Bulls are willing to pay and they have to be willing to make a trade for him. Philly is easier since they'll have cap space, but he seems to be a less great fit there than some of their other potential options, though still a plausible match.


I think Demar would go to NY for less money. Not sure how much less. I think he really wants to be competitive next season.


He doesn't have the option to go to NY for less money, because NY isn't going to have any cap space to sign him. Unless you're suggesting that DeMar, who has been insisting on a huge 3-year deal with the Bulls to re-sign, by all reports, is going to sign there on the MLE or whatever.
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Re: Your offseason plans for the Bulls 

Post#176 » by Almost Retired » Fri May 3, 2024 7:46 pm

There is no trade possible that will make any appreciable difference. There are no players in the Draft we could acquire that would make any appreciable difference. We are a mediocre team going nowhere. AKME bet on a group of veterans at the expense of years of Draft capital, and that group just never worked out once Ball got hurt. Bad strategy combined with horrible luck with injuries. The Bulls will be a sub .500 team destined to remain that way for years to come. At best they might actually get through the play-in series at some point only to get crushed 0-4 or 1-4 in the First Round.

One thing about these playoff have shown me is that Teams that go all in for aging Veteran talent in order to chase one or two rings in the short term are seldom successful. Phoenix, Milwaukee in particular really shot themselves in the foot. Players peak at some point. The inevitability of age and wear and tear. You want a Lillard or a Durant before they peak, not after. You give up too many assets to acquire them and have to pay out too much money which eats up too much of your salary cap.

If I were AKME I would not resign DDR. Let the guy try to get on a squad that has a chance at a Championship. I'd trade Caruso for the same reason. Zach is as good as gone. Try to salvage something for him. Accept tanking is needed. Hope to Draft in the Top 5 for 2 or 3 years in a row. Draft some guys that can actually score. If a guy's got heart you can teach defense. But if a guy can't shoot by the the time they are drafted they probably are not going to become good shooters. We have too many athletic tweeners that can't shoot, or guys that can shoot but are sleepwalking their way through season after season. I've seen enough Patrick. Enough of Vooch. Enough of Lavine. Dump them all. Start over. With a new Front Office.
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Re: Your offseason plans for the Bulls 

Post#177 » by DuckIII » Fri May 3, 2024 8:56 pm

dougthonus wrote:
DuckIII wrote:Moreover, a team led by Coby and Ayo as its two main players is going to suck. It’s not an anti-tank move to keep them. At their age, quality, and contracts they are basically the two guys on the team at the absolute bottom of the “trade to rebuild” list.


They are unlikely to be meaningful assets on their next deals for a rebuilding team, and it's hard to imagine any scenario we aren't a rebuilding team in 2 years.


What do you mean by “meaningful assets”? If they are good players and leaders on not terrible contracts, in their early/mid twenties how is that not a positive for a rebuild? Not everyone has to be a baby or a a veteran bum. Ideally you affirmatively want solid veteran leaders.
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Re: Your offseason plans for the Bulls 

Post#178 » by dougthonus » Fri May 3, 2024 9:06 pm

DuckIII wrote:What do you mean by “meaningful assets”? If they are good players and leaders on not terrible contracts, in their early/mid twenties how is that not a positive for a rebuild? Not everyone has to be a baby or a a veteran bum. Ideally you affirmatively want solid veteran leaders.


The negative scenarios to me:
1: They're really good, but still sub top 50 guys, but you are probably going to have to pay them at least the 25% max, and on that deal that just isn't leaving you with enough room to do anything else. You can't pay your 3rd/4th/5th guys big money before you get your #1 and #2 guys.

2: They're simply not that good, in which case you were better pulling the rip cord now.

The positive scenarios would be:
1: They become really great all-star caliber players (contract no longer matters)

2: They sign team friendly deals on their next contracts (unlikely anyone does this ever, but especially guys who are underpaid on their current deals)

I think negative scenario #1 is most likely, and it's not a doomsday scenario or anything, but it's going to be hard to build forward with those guys making a combined 70M in 2 years.
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Re: Your offseason plans for the Bulls 

Post#179 » by jnrjr79 » Fri May 3, 2024 9:15 pm

dougthonus wrote:
DuckIII wrote:What do you mean by “meaningful assets”? If they are good players and leaders on not terrible contracts, in their early/mid twenties how is that not a positive for a rebuild? Not everyone has to be a baby or a a veteran bum. Ideally you affirmatively want solid veteran leaders.


The negative scenarios to me:
1: They're really good, but still sub top 50 guys, but you are probably going to have to pay them at least the 25% max, and on that deal that just isn't leaving you with enough room to do anything else. You can't pay your 3rd/4th/5th guys big money before you get your #1 and #2 guys.

2: They're simply not that good, in which case you were better pulling the rip cord now.

The positive scenarios would be:
1: They become really great all-star caliber players (contract no longer matters)

2: They sign team friendly deals on their next contracts (unlikely anyone does this ever, but especially guys who are underpaid on their current deals)

I think negative scenario #1 is most likely, and it's not a doomsday scenario or anything, but it's going to be hard to build forward with those guys making a combined 70M in 2 years.


I don't really understand projecting Ayo to be on the path for a 25% max, but maybe I just don't have a great sense of the market. I'd agree Coby could be headed there.
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Re: Your offseason plans for the Bulls 

Post#180 » by dougthonus » Fri May 3, 2024 9:19 pm

jnrjr79 wrote:I don't really understand projecting Ayo to be on the path for a 25% max, but maybe I just don't have a great sense of the market. I'd agree Coby could be headed there.


Let me put it this way, if you have these traits:

1: UFA
2: Under 27
3: Clearly will get above the MLE
4: Clearly below MAX in what you would want to pay
5: Cannot be extended earlier because they don't make enough where the extension makes sense to take

Then:
1: Very high flight risk
2: Very high overpay risk
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