New NBA TV negotiations

[prolific passer]

Zaslav sucks. Big reason for why the Hollywood strike lasted as long as it did and also robbed us of more Michael Keaton as Batman.

https://youtu.be/_HctNawsHww?si=m93cpKh7DfMZDY8f

[jnrjr79]

Holy guacamole:

I can't actually open the article it b/c it's paywalled, but a screenshot posted to Twitter of an article on Puck News says that the total rights deals are anticipated to go from $2.7 billion/year to "around $7 billion."

I know there is cap smoothing now, but hoo boy, salaries are going to get insane.

[prolific passer]

Apparently some are saying that ESPN overpaid for the NBA and probably won't get enough back and end up going under because of it.

[SalmonsSuperfan]

Holy guacamole:

I can't actually open the article it b/c it's paywalled, but a screenshot posted to Twitter of an article on Puck News says that the total rights deals are anticipated to go from $2.7 billion/year to "around $7 billion."

I know there is cap smoothing now, but hoo boy, salaries are going to get insane.

that's **** insane. why? that's too much money.
Still, you know what would be cool? If they took a chunk of that change and created a proper minor league system. The Gatorade league is cool and all, but it's treated like a joke and nobody cares about it, NBA teams or fans. It and could actually serve its purpose to help develop young players who aren't ready to go against seasoned pros. Or to take flyers on NBA-adjacent players who might turn into good role players if given the opportunity. If salaries were competitive enough, the Gatorade league (rebranded to something that isn't a **** joke) could probably poach Euroleague talent, it would be nice to integrate that into the NBA, make teams more competitive, give them more flexibility while giving opportunities to more players. Could also bring a more enjoyable live basketball experience to the host towns of Gatorade teams and potential for expansion. Seems like good business to me. Also, frankly, player salaries are high enough. Rather than further inflating the absurd salaries of the likes of Zach Lavine, how about distributing that money on the lower end of the salary spectrum to attract more (marginal) talent to the NBA.

[dougthonus]

Holy guacamole:

I can't actually open the article it b/c it's paywalled, but a screenshot posted to Twitter of an article on Puck News says that the total rights deals are anticipated to go from $2.7 billion/year to "around $7 billion."

I know there is cap smoothing now, but hoo boy, salaries are going to get insane.

that's **** insane. why? that's too much money.
Still, you know what would be cool? If they took a chunk of that change and created a proper minor league system. The Gatorade league is cool and all, but it's treated like a joke and nobody cares about it, NBA teams or fans. It and could actually serve its purpose to help develop young players who aren't ready to go against seasoned pros. Or to take flyers on NBA-adjacent players who might turn into good role players if given the opportunity. If salaries were competitive enough, the Gatorade league (rebranded to something that isn't a **** joke) could probably poach Euroleague talent, it would be nice to integrate that into the NBA, make teams more competitive, give them more flexibility while giving opportunities to more players. Could also bring a more enjoyable live basketball experience to the host towns of Gatorade teams and potential for expansion. Seems like good business to me. Also, frankly, player salaries are high enough. Rather than further inflating the absurd salaries of the likes of Zach Lavine, how about distributing that money on the lower end of the salary spectrum to attract more (marginal) talent to the NBA.

The money is what the money is. The owners are a much smaller group than the players and get 50% of that new money too, split it into far fewer pieces, and are also already orders of magnitude wealthier. Like Steve Balmer has 200x more money than the richest player in the world. Why are you upset about the players getting more and not the owners?

Also worth noting, anyone is free to invest in a minor league system if they want to with their share of the money given that they are billionaires and all and (and some players and owners have). But I don't think a minor league system would be any major benefit to the NBA. Most teams already have like 5 prospects on their roster that will never be meaningful players with the advent of the two way contract, and those guys already can play in the G-League to improve.

[SalmonsSuperfan]

Holy guacamole:

I can't actually open the article it b/c it's paywalled, but a screenshot posted to Twitter of an article on Puck News says that the total rights deals are anticipated to go from $2.7 billion/year to "around $7 billion."

I know there is cap smoothing now, but hoo boy, salaries are going to get insane.

that's **** insane. why? that's too much money.
Still, you know what would be cool? If they took a chunk of that change and created a proper minor league system. The Gatorade league is cool and all, but it's treated like a joke and nobody cares about it, NBA teams or fans. It and could actually serve its purpose to help develop young players who aren't ready to go against seasoned pros. Or to take flyers on NBA-adjacent players who might turn into good role players if given the opportunity. If salaries were competitive enough, the Gatorade league (rebranded to something that isn't a **** joke) could probably poach Euroleague talent, it would be nice to integrate that into the NBA, make teams more competitive, give them more flexibility while giving opportunities to more players. Could also bring a more enjoyable live basketball experience to the host towns of Gatorade teams and potential for expansion. Seems like good business to me. Also, frankly, player salaries are high enough. Rather than further inflating the absurd salaries of the likes of Zach Lavine, how about distributing that money on the lower end of the salary spectrum to attract more (marginal) talent to the NBA.

The money is what the money is. The owners are a much smaller group than the players and get 50% of that new money too, split it into far fewer pieces, and are also already orders of magnitude wealthier. Like Steve Balmer has 200x more money than the richest player in the world. Why are you upset about the players getting more and not the owners?

Also worth noting, anyone is free to invest in a minor league system if they want to with their share of the money given that they are billionaires and all and (and some players and owners have). But I don't think a minor league system would be any major benefit to the NBA. Most teams already have like 5 prospects on their roster that will never be meaningful players with the advent of the two way contract, and those guys already can play in the G-League to improve.

it's too much money for the owners AND the players, Doug. That's what I wrote. Reinsdorf can net a billion shoving gambling down children's throats and Pat Williams can net a couple million marketing products made in a sweatshop in Bangladesh. This isn't some analogy for a labor struggle, the "laborers" are also some of the wealthiest men who have ever existed on this planet.

it's too much **** money and no it's not "it is what it is" the money comes from somewhere. or in this case, it probably doesn't come from anywhere. it's fake money. NBA viewership has declined, overall interest in the sport has too. So these people responsible for producing an inferior product over the years should be rewarded with a 300% raise? they might profit more than $7bil but it won't be because of sports. It will be because professional basketball will have gone the way of horse racing. it already has, but expect more DraftKing and Ozempic ads targeted at 13-year-olds.

of course, while the reality of the situation is that professional sports is broken, a fake industry where it's impossible not to turn a profit at a higher rate of return than any index fund; an industry that has no business being controlled by any private individual, I still enjoy watching them. I've offered an idea that could take that ~$4bil and use it in a way to make the sport better, a better experience for the fans, maybe even a vehicle for economic development (evidence that minor league ballparks have a positive effect on local economies) not to line the pockets of "working class" NBA players. I think this gets lost in the labor analogy between ownership and players, that the fans, the public, are the actual "workers" in the equation, consequently we don't have any say in creating or improving these public goods (sport is definitely a public good) that are controlled by wealthy elites.

[Jcool0]

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[dougthonus]

it's too much money for the owners AND the players, Doug. That's what I wrote. Reinsdorf can net a billion shoving gambling down children's throats and Pat Williams can net a couple million marketing products made in a sweatshop in Bangladesh. This isn't some analogy for a labor struggle, the "laborers" are also some of the wealthiest men who have ever existed on this planet.

If you're going to complain about people with too much money, then I'd start targeting the tech giants before I'd start targeting the sports leagues. Put price caps on the margins on an iphone and all other types of things. If your complaint is really just with capitalism and wealth/income inequality, I totally agree. Fix our tax system to be wealth based instead of income based (or at least a mix) would be a great start (or at a minimum, kill off the capital gains loop hole so that rich people no longer pay lower effective tax rates than everyone else).

it's too much **** money and no it's not "it is what it is" the money comes from somewhere. or in this case, it probably doesn't come from anywhere. it's fake money. NBA viewership has declined, overall interest in the sport has too. So these people responsible for producing an inferior product over the years should be rewarded with a 300% raise? they might profit more than $7bil but it won't be because of sports. It will be because professional basketball will have gone the way of horse racing. it already has, but expect more DraftKing and Ozempic ads targeted at 13-year-olds.

It isn't an inferior product. I think it's among the best products the NBA has ever had. This is the highest skill level to ever exist in the league, but even if you think it is inferior, stop watching. No one is stopping you. Don't bitch about other people's happiness or what other people are willing to pay.

I'm with you on the integration of gambling in the sport. I hate it. I don't gamble, I don't intend to start. I think like many things that people struggle to moderate, it's truly evil for those that can't moderate it and destroys lives. It's also a fun activity for those who can moderate it, and society hasn't really found a great holistic solution for activities that are fun for some and horrors for others.

Ozempic is a red herring, the NBA is a terrible audience for Ozempic ads (though medical based weight loss to control GLP1 is going to be an absolute game changer and within 5 years everyone who needs it will be on a version of it, and the world will be a dramatically healthier place for it, likely not Ozempic explicitly, but our understanding of GLP1 and next gen drugs around it will probably be one of the best medical advances in the past 30 years).

of course, while the reality of the situation is that professional sports is broken, a fake industry where it's impossible not to turn a profit at a higher rate of return than any index fund; an industry that has no business being controlled by any private individual, I still enjoy watching them. I've offered an idea that could take that ~$4bil and use it in a way to make the sport better, a better experience for the fans, maybe even a vehicle for economic development (evidence that minor league ballparks have a positive effect on local economies) not to line the pockets of "working class" NBA players. I think this gets lost in the labor analogy between ownership and players, that the fans, the public, are the actual "workers" in the equation, consequently we don't have any say in creating or improving these public goods (sport is definitely a public good) that are controlled by wealthy elites.

I mean the NBA was not a no brainer investment not that long ago. 2/3rds of franchises were in the red.

Professional Sports leagues are not a public good. They're owned by private individuals. It's not easy to start/maintain a league. There are 1000s of sports out there, if you think it's super easy, pick one that doesn't have a great pro league and get one going and enjoy the fruits of your labor. Many have people have tried, and the vast majority of them have failed. The ones that succeeded got insane returns, but 95% of the people who try fail.

NBA owners largely already have created a different, lower level sports league. The fact that you think it isn't good enough isn't a reason for them to invest 4 billion to make it better. They probably view it as a terrible use of their investment money and would be correct.

[Ice Man]

The NBA old timers must be wincing. Charles Barkley made $37 million in his entire career. Once this new deal kicks in players at the level of Coby White and Pat Williams will be making that much each year.

[dougthonus]

The NBA old timers must be wincing. Charles Barkley made $37 million in his entire career. Once this new deal kicks in players at the level of Coby White and Pat Williams will be making that much each year.

To be fair, if you take the same time gap between now and Barkley and apply it to Barkley, the guys in that generation were often working jobs in the summer because the NBA didn't pay enough to live on full time.

There is definitely an insane amount of "right time, right place" for people who have highly specialized entertainment oriented skills in whether that form of entertainment is in high demand / easily distributed / highly monetized.

[Ccwatercraft]

The NBA old timers must be wincing. Charles Barkley made $37 million in his entire career. Once this new deal kicks in players at the level of Coby White and Pat Williams will be making that much each year.

I'm sure sports broadcasters from 30 years ago are wincing at Barkleys 10mil+ salary on tnt as well, probably higher than Ahmad Rashads net worth, It's all a matter of timing.

[prolific passer]

So when are we going to hear the news about all this?

[kodo]

So when are we going to hear the news about all this?

Bill Simmons said it's done, Zaslav (TNT) didn't outbid to retain the NBA. He's been making this kind of noise for a long time, so no investors should be surprised. Most likely they don't want to announce anything until the POs are over because TNT is still hosting them.

Not official obviously.

[prolific passer]

So when are we going to hear the news about all this?

Bill Simmons said it's done, Zaslav (TNT) didn't outbid to retain the NBA. He's been making this kind of noise for a long time, so no investors should be surprised. Most likely they don't want to announce anything until the POs are over because TNT is still hosting them.

Not official obviously.

Be nice to see NBA on NBC again but not at the cost of tnt. ESPN/ABC? Sure.

[Ice Man]

Be nice to see NBA on NBC again but not at the cost of tnt. ESPN/ABC? Sure.

Perk out, Walton in? Call it a draw.

[dougthonus]

It would be interesting if TNT sold the rights to inside the NBA to NBC as part of the transition.

They'd have no use for anyone on the staff anymore or to keep the show, NBC would do well to buy the brand to get immediate love and widespread adoption. TNT would be better off getting the money than not getting the money. No one involved in the cast likely has anything immediately better lined up or could line up something better.

It seems like a move that would work well for all parties, but I haven't heard anyone talk about it.

[League Circles]

It would be interesting if TNT sold the rights to inside the NBA to NBC as part of the transition.

They'd have no use for anyone on the staff anymore or to keep the show, NBC would do well to buy the brand to get immediate love and widespread adoption. TNT would be better off getting the money than not getting the money. No one involved in the cast likely has anything immediately better lined up or could line up something better.

It seems like a move that would work well for all parties, but I haven't heard anyone talk about it.

I can't imagine there's much incentive for NBC to pay for this. They could likely recreate the show to whatever extent they want by just picking the bones of the show's personnel. Hard to imagine any contractual elements preventing people from signing with NBC once TNT is out.

[dougthonus]

I can't imagine there's much incentive for NBC to pay for this. They could likely recreate the show to whatever extent they want by just picking the bones of the show's personnel. Hard to imagine any contractual elements preventing people from signing with NBC once TNT is out.

I thought about that too, but I think there is value in these ways:

1: it's an emmy award winning brand that has wide spread recognition even with casual fans as the best NBA show there is.
2: Ernie Johnson is reportedly tied to TNT long term and can't move if they don't pay
3: You just paid 2.5B for the NBA, why would you not want to pay say 10M more per year to buy this show and give your massive investment the best chance at success? It's pennies relative to what you have spent already

It does depend on the cost of course, if TNT is bitter about the whole thing and is like FU, 500M for the rights to Inside the NBA, yeah, you aren't doing it, but if a reasonable cost can be worked out, I'd do it if I'm NBC.

[Ice Man]

I'd be delighted if NBC picked up Ernie and Kenny, as long as they left the other two guys behind. But of course that's just me. The rest of the nation turns on Chuck and Shaq, rather than flips to a new channel when they start talking.

[League Circles]

I can't imagine there's much incentive for NBC to pay for this. They could likely recreate the show to whatever extent they want by just picking the bones of the show's personnel. Hard to imagine any contractual elements preventing people from signing with NBC once TNT is out.

I thought about that too, but I think there is value in these ways:

1: it's an emmy award winning brand that has wide spread recognition even with casual fans as the best NBA show there is.
2: Ernie Johnson is reportedly tied to TNT long term and can't move if they don't pay
3: You just paid 2.5B for the NBA, why would you not want to pay say 10M more per year to buy this show and give your massive investment the best chance at success? It's pennies relative to what you have spent already

It does depend on the cost of course, if TNT is bitter about the whole thing and is like FU, 500M for the rights to Inside the NBA, yeah, you aren't doing it, but if a reasonable cost can be worked out, I'd do it if I'm NBC.

Yeah, like with Vuc, you already paid Wendell Carter and 2 FRPs, so why not extend him for a big discount to give yourself the best chance of success? I kid, I kid.

I don't think anyone who is on the fence about watching will watch or not watch based on the name brand of the show. I think people will forget about that in a couple months.

I don't think Ernie Johnson drives any revenue at all. I mean I know he has great chemistry with the guys, but I think they can find someone else to do a good enough job. The draw of the show is really the entertainment value of mostly Barkley, and also Shaq IMO.

Who knows if they'll even make money on the deal at all? I could easily see all of the new media deals be huge money makers for the nba and actual financial losers for the media partners, though I would assume they have to have negotiated at least some protections for revenue downside into the new deals. The media partners need the NBA wildly more than the NBA needs them.