Better Scorer: Noc or Deng?

[Rerisen]

Seeing Noc's explosion to start the last game just got me wondering. Is Nocioni a better scorer than Deng? And if so (or if equal) does that have any implications on our willingness to trade Deng?

Last year Per 48 minutes.

Nocioni 25.6 Points, 57.8 TS%
Deng 24.1 Points, 56.0 TS%

This year Per 48

Noc 25.6 Points, 52.2 TS%
Deng 24.3 Points, 51.6 TS%

Noc also out rebounded Deng per 48 last year, though Deng gets more steals and assists. And yes, Noc can tend to suck on defense at times. The question is not is he better, but a better scorer, which does have some implications on how will he could fill that spot in a full time capacity.

[dougthonus]

Nocioni gets more rebounds because he often plays PF and is closer to the basket than Deng.

AS a scorer, he's not better, because he takes easier shots. He also is far streakier, and streakiness isn't something you want out of your scorers. Consistency will give you a better chance to win in the playoffs. His TS% is largely higher because he shoots so many 3s.

[Magilla_Gorilla]

Nocioni gets more rebounds because he often plays PF and is closer to the basket than Deng.

AS a scorer, he's not better, because he takes easier shots. He also is far streakier, and streakiness isn't something you want out of your scorers. Consistency will give you a better chance to win in the playoffs. His TS% is largely higher because he shoots so many 3s.

Quoted for absolute troof.

[Rerisen]

So it's a strength in Deng's game that he does not shoot 3's well Doug?

I don't get how Noc can take easier shots, but then you say stats credit him for taking so many more 3's. A 3 point shot is not easier than a 16 footer that Deng might take.

[Magilla_Gorilla]

So it's a strength in Deng's game that he does not shoot 3's well Doug?

I don't get how Noc can take easier shots, but then you say stats credit him for taking so many more 3's. A 3 point shot is not easier than a 16 footer that Deng might take.

I'm pretty sure Doug is talking about "degree of difficulty". i.e. Deng taking a shot with the shot clock winding down, as opposed to Noc standing around at the 3 point line and waiting for the open look.

[Rerisen]

I'm pretty sure Doug is talking about "degree of difficulty". i.e. Deng taking a shot with the shot clock winding down, as opposed to Noc standing around at the 3 point line and waiting for the open look.

I would think you would want a scorer to be able to get easier shots. Getting closer is not helpful if your shots do not become easier.

The true shooting stat weights each type of shot accordingly. So unless we are going to say the weights are wrong, it sounds like rationalizing to get the answer we think makes the most sense to say Deng is the better scorer. It's more like a wash. And actually quite remarkable how similar their production is over the same minutes.

[Magilla_Gorilla]

I would think you would want a scorer to be able to get easier shots. Getting closer is not helpful if your shots do not become easier.

I don't know if you are intentionally misunderstanding, or if I was confusing in what I said. Deng takes tougher shots because he is many times the last option (i.e. thrown the ball with 3 seconds on the clock)

Nocioni on the other hand sits at the three point line, waits for someone else to do the work, and then shoots an open 3 pointer.

Jason Kapono has a 62%TS, I wouldn't call him anywhere near a good scorer. A great 3pt specialist sure, but not a great scorer.

The true shooting stat weights each type of shot accordingly. So unless we are going to say the weights are wrong, it sounds like rationalizing to get the answer we think makes the most sense to say Deng is the better scorer. It's more like a wash. And actually quite remarkable how similar their production is over the same minutes.

Excuse me, but correct me if I am wrong - TS% does not take into account anything other than if it was a 2 or 3 pointer (and free throws) - it does not account for whether that shot was taken with 15 seconds on the shot clock or one second.

[bullzman23]

I actually think Deng takes easier shots. A lot of his midrange jumpers are fairly open, while Noce forces a lot of the action.

Noce might be a better scorer, because he tends to take a lot of shots he probably shouldn't be taking. Deng plays more within the flow of the offense.

[Rerisen]

-= original quote snipped =-


Excuse me, but correct me if I am wrong - TS% does not take into account anything other than if it was a 2 or 3 pointer (and free throws) - it does not account for whether that shot was taken with 15 seconds on the shot clock or one second.

The Bulls evenly distribute shots that its not like Deng is Kobe Bryant here constantly getting dumped the ball with 3 seconds left come on. It happens to him no more than Gordon or Kirk, and perhaps less so, because we know he is not a creator and the guards tend to still have the ball often when the clock is running out. When Nocioni is in the game he is every bit as a last option as Deng and I would think any differences in 'last second heaves' would be extremely insignificant. And it certainly doesn't jive with what I have watched , every game of this season.

According to 82games.com Deng takes 9% of his shots in the last 4 seconds of the shot clock and shoots 39%. Noc takes 13% of his shots in the last 4 seconds and shoots 40%. The evidence doesn't support this reasoning.

[CBS7]

Nocioni might have the numbers in his favor but as stated, Deng is far more consistent and can score even when his shot isn't falling.

Nocioni is a better long range shooter, but Deng is a better slasher. Deng won't have as many 4-13, 2-12, 1-11 nights.

[cool007]

Remember Nocioni was our MVP 2 years ago when we were 7th seed team and he was also our MVP for the Playoff series against Miami Heat.

Nocioni can score but like Doug said, he is far more streakier and I would prefer the more consistent option in Deng and trust him more than Nocioni. We already have enough of INCONSISTENT shooters on our team (Hinrich/Gordon/Duhon/Nocioni etc).

This doesn't mean Deng is a better scorer but he is more of a preferred option when both Nocioni and Deng are similar scorers (in averages per 48).

I know you only want to point out scoring but defense and other intangibles can not be overlooked when comparing players.

With that said, since Nocioni can fulfill the SF position just fine if Deng were to get traded for a Gasol or type player (I wouldn't have minded that trade gasol for Deng).

[Rerisen]

With that said, since Nocioni can fulfill the SF position just fine if Deng were to get traded

Obviously this is the end point of the discussion. Thank you. Though I have really no preference that Deng should go over Nocioni necessarily.

Deng and Noc's production numbers are incredibly similar over even mintues. Of course, 'defense' is not a production stat beyond blocks and steals and I noted how Noc can suck on defense at times. The fact that Deng is better than Noc and far younger, is not lost on the rest of the league, and therefore Deng

[dougthonus]

So it's a strength in Deng's game that he does not shoot 3's well Doug? :-?

I don't get how Noc can take easier shots, but then you say stats credit him for taking so many more 3's. A 3 point shot is not easier than a 16 footer that Deng might take.

Nocioni takes easier shots because he generally shoots open jumpers or open shots in the lane. When he takes higher degree of difficulty shots he doesn't seem nearly as effective. He's not counted on to create as many shots as Deng.

I don't think Deng's inability to shoot 3s is a strength, I think the fact that he puts up a nearly identical TS% while not shooting 3s is a big strength, because you will get far greater consistency game to game from Luol.

[Clint Eastwood]

also important to note is noc as the starting small forward would be on a much more reasonable deal than deng will get in the offseason.

and i will be the one to say noc is far more clutch than deng. to me, he is fearless and has icewater in his veins, something most of the players on the team are sorely lacking. noc isnt afraid to try to put it down in traffic, which even when he fails is good for team morale and intensity.

noc is ideally a 6th man, but if deng is converted with filler into a gasol type, the bulls become a better team. dengs potential and age clearly are what make him valuable enough to potentially get something really great at power forward.

[bullzman23]

-= original quote snipped =-



Obviously this is the end point of the discussion. Thank you. Though I have really no preference that Deng should go over Nocioni necessarily.

Deng and Noc's production numbers are incredibly similar over even mintues. Of course, 'defense' is not a production stat beyond blocks and steals and I noted how Noc can suck on defense at times. The fact that Deng is better than Noc and far younger, is not lost on the rest of the league, and therefore Deng

[Rerisen]

I don't think Deng's inability to shoot 3s is a strength, I think the fact that he puts up a nearly identical TS% while not shooting 3s is a big strength, because you will get far greater consistency game to game from Luol.

I got ya. If anything this should give us hope for the future that if Deng can expand his game out farther, his limits as a scorer have a higher ceiling, whereas Noc is pretty much a finished player.

Because I do think the ability to be a threat from deep can have a salutary effect on a offense. I watch Boston come down and they put Rondo at the top of the arc, KG in the paint, and then 3 shooters spaced far out beyond the arc and you can just instantly take a snapshot of the floor and see massive holes in the defense and space for their offense to operate.

When you watch the Bulls come down, the middle is often all clogged up with Smith, Wallace and Deng also hanging not too much farther out at mid range. It really can restrict movement for the guy with the ball and help the defense to collapse. Coldfish has also talked about the merry go round of slashers through the lane we do at times, which makes easy shots hard to find, if those slashers are not hit with the ball immediately as they go through. Luol being able to step back behind that line could open up some more options or different sets for us.

[step]

Tons of replacements...

I wouldn't say that, a large portion of that list are bad.

That being said, I would consider the following:
Childress
Azubuike
Maggette
Gomes

It would be tough to land any one of them, Maggette being the only one that would be unrestricted if he chose to opt out. Though a lot depends on what stud big we are talking about.

[bullzman23]

Tons of replacements...

I wouldn't say that, a large portion of that list are bad.

That being said, I would consider the following:
Childress
Azubuike
Maggette
Gomes

It would be tough to land any one of them, Maggette being the only one that would be unrestricted if he chose to opt out. Though a lot depends on what stud big we are talking about.

I don't agree. Many of those guys are servicable, especially for a bench spot.

[JimmyJammer]

Talking about trade, I would be willing to trade Deng, Joe Smith, Hinrich, either Noah or Tyrus for Gasol and any combination of Warwick, Mike Miller, Navarro or Kyle Lowry.

Lowry
Mike Miller
Nocioni
Wallace
Gasol

Noah/TT
Gray
Gordon
Duhon
Navarro/Warwick

Mike Miller can replace Deng's production and be even better on some days. We get our low-post scorer in Gasol, and we get our playmaker in Lowry.

[dougthonus]

The Bulls don't need a serviceable player. They have too may serviceable players.

If we traded Deng we would have a massive downgrade at the SF position. Nocioni can not fill in there nearly as effectively overall. His scoring is decent (though streaky), but his defense is just awful. He blows up the teams entire defensive scheme by his flying around out of position.

You have initially started an argument, is Deng that much better a scorer while specifically saying to ignore everything else. You have no changed the argument to be is Nocioni able to fill in for Deng.

Granted, if we can trade Deng and get a stud for him, that's fine. You now have a strength at some other position that you didn't have. However, if Tyrus and Noah develop, then I think that the drop off between Deng and Nocioni is larger than the drop off between Tyrus/Noah and a big man we could get from Deng.

Of course a combination trade mixes things up again.