You've got $24M to spend and there's no Big 3. Who ya got ?

[sonny]

I agree that Joe Johnson is likely to decline, but I don't understand why everyone thinks Johnson will decline, but doesn't say he same things about Wade? Johnson is only 6 months older than Wade and, in my opinion, will age considerably better. First of all, Wade's game is predicated on athleticism, and that is what players lose first. Johnson's game is more predicated on outside shooting and creating space and than flying to the hoop and slashing.

I am not saying that Johnson is a better FA to go after than Wade. I think Wade gives us 2 elite years, but then declines rapidly. Johnson, on the other hand, probably gives us less in the first 2 years than Wade, about the same in the third, and maybe a little bit more in the fourth and fifth years.

I would expect Wade to miss 20+ games in years 3-5, but I think Johnson typically stays healthy and would only suffer injury in some type of fluke.

Eh, I definitely have injury concerns with Wade, but Wade>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Johnson

[coldfish]

I agree that Joe Johnson is likely to decline, but I don't understand why everyone thinks Johnson will decline, but doesn't say he same things about Wade? Johnson is only 6 months older than Wade and, in my opinion, will age considerably better. First of all, Wade's game is predicated on athleticism, and that is what players lose first. Johnson's game is more predicated on outside shooting and creating space and than flying to the hoop and slashing.

I am not saying that Johnson is a better FA to go after than Wade. I think Wade gives us 2 elite years, but then declines rapidly. Johnson, on the other hand, probably gives us less in the first 2 years than Wade, about the same in the third, and maybe a little bit more in the fourth and fifth years.

I would expect Wade to miss 20+ games in years 3-5, but I think Johnson typically stays healthy and would only suffer injury in some type of fluke.

Look at Ray Allen. At his peak, he was a noticeably better player than Johnson and he doesn't rely on athleticism.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... nra02.html

Look at where Ray has gone since age 31. If you read the Boston board, they openly question Ray's abilities. Again, this is a guy who was better than Joe and doesn't rely on athleticism.

[chadrucf]

That frontcourt isn't very good. Its a better team than the Bulls have now, but when you get to the 2nd round, most frontcourts are going to abuse Taj / Noah / Asik. Its a dead team in the playoffs.

Can't argue with that. The Bulls are going nowhere in the playoffs with Noah and Taj as your starting front court. Making an upgrade in the frontcourt this offseason, even if our main acquisition is a SG, is necessary for us to compete next year.

I don't feel the same way in the backcourt. I think a Rose and Hinrich backcourt could win a title. The important thing here is the depth. We have no one behind them and suffer a huge drop off in production when they are out. If we get a B***/Amare, the key will be filling out the guard rotation with some nice shooters who are capable NBA players.

[coldfish]

That frontcourt isn't very good. Its a better team than the Bulls have now, but when you get to the 2nd round, most frontcourts are going to abuse Taj / Noah / Asik. Its a dead team in the playoffs.

Can't argue with that. The Bulls are going nowhere in the playoffs with Noah and Taj as your starting front court. Making an upgrade in the frontcourt this offseason, even if our main acquisition is a SG, is necessary for us to compete next year.

I don't feel the same way in the backcourt. I think a Rose and Hinrich backcourt could win a title. The important thing here is the depth. We have no one behind them and suffer a huge drop off in production when they are out. If we get a B***/Amare, the key will be filling out the guard rotation with some nice shooters who are capable NBA players.

That's always been my goal.

Rose / Hinrich / Quality shooter
Deng
Noah / Taj / Stud big man

I think that team would have a puncher's chance of winning a title depending on how good Rose gets and how good the shooter and big man play.

IMO
Rose / Hinrich / JJ
Deng
Noah / Taj / Asik
Has zero chance of a title and little wiggle room to get there.

[League Circles]

A couple of things I wanted to comment on:

Regarding Doug's idea that we may get better for the next year or two with JJ and then we'd decline, I gotta ask why you think this is so? Johnson would have to fall off the face of theearth to cancel the positive effects of a 23-24 year old Derrick Rose, a Luol Deng in his prime, A Noah in his prime, Gibson in his prime, etc. These players will all improve over the next few years - Noah, Rose, Deng, and Gibson. I'm not sure Kirk has even played his best ball yet to be honest. Some people think a players prime is like 24-28. I highly disagree. Yes, that is probably the physical prime of the body, although a LOT of fine players over the years have stretched their physical prime well beyond 30. But most importantly, most players advance so much mentally and in the team aspects of playing winning basketball at age 28-35. So I think your average great player's peak comes at about age 30. Also you really have to look at body types, style of game, etc. I agree wholehertedly that Wade is the most likely to fade quickly along with Boozer. Joe Johnson should still be a quality starter throughout the term of his contract, he just won't be the #2 guy anymore by the end of it. And he'll be overpaid, but it won't matter cause we wouldn't be signing FAs anyway and he'll be one of the best 3rd-5th men in the league by the end of his deal. I don't think I'd give him 6 years. I'd give him a 5 year deal starting at the max and staying flat. My concern is that we need a quality big way more than we need a 2 guard. Taj is great but you need somone better than him. He can be the 3rd big. We NEED Amare or Bosh IMO. Lebron is really a big too if you think about it. It's one of those three guys or bust for me. If we get Wade I'll be super pumped but I won't expect it to last as long, or be as good.

I disagree that there was some separation between Ray Allen at his peak and Joe Johnson. Ray Allen was a non-winning, crap defender for his whole career until he got to Boston.

All you have to do is look at Orlando and Phoenix to see the continuing importance of dominant bigs in this league. The Suns and Orlando, outside of Amare and Howard, suck major ass. Yes, Steve NAsh is a great player still but look at the other 3 guys in the Suns lineup - Frye, Hill, and JRich. Those guys are among the worst 3rd -5th men in the league. Yet there they sit as 5th in the West. Even the Spurs really aren't a threat anymore outside of Duncan. Yet they still are because of him. I feel the same about Orlando. NONE of Nelson, Lewis, or Carter is a great player. None are nearly all-star caliber players. Not even close. Hell, our 2nd through 5th men are better than theirs IMO. But they are the third best team in the league.

Noah has to be our 2nd best big to win a title IMO. Yes, we'd still need another good guard for depth, but c'mon, those guys are pretty easy to find for the MLE if you're a winning team in a good city with PT for the guy.

My list now goes like this:
Lebron
tie Bosh/Amare
Wade
Boozer
Johnson

Those guys will all command the max next year (not all will command it with max raises over the deal), and all are worth it to secure their services for the next 5-6 years. Even if whoever we get fades a bit after the first 3 years, so what? They'll still be good players and we wouldn't be using th emoney on anyone else anyway. Let's stop talking abotu saving the money or taking bad contracts for good players off of other teams for free. Peruse the salary data - bad deals hardly exist anymore. Seriously the list of really bad deals in this league is basically Brand, Arenas, and Lewis, and that's it. We need to sign a FA and we need to pay the max to do it. But the guards and Boozer should be secondary options.

[sonny]

Allen was a game away from leading his team to the finals in 2001.

[League Circles]

Allen was a game away from leading his team to the finals in 2001.

I know, but that was the worst East of all time. They might not even have been a top ten team that year IMO. Then he proceeded to lose most of his games for the rest of the decade til he got to Boston and was the third guy. I'm not saying JJ is better. They were very comparable IMO.

[sonny]

They seem to be comparable, hence, people not wanting to throw big bucks for a guy that won't be worth it in year 2 or 3

[coldfish]

They seem to be comparable, hence, people not wanting to throw big bucks for a guy that won't be worth it in year 2 or 3

IMHO, Ray was better than JJ, but as you note, its not central to the point. Even if Ray = JJ, Ray's collapse after age 31 is a pretty good warning that you can expect a collapse from JJ. I doubt anyone here is going to argue that JJ > Ray Allen.

Basically, by signing JJ to a huge contract you give yourself a 2 year window and I don't think that the team you create during that 2 year period is going to be good enough.

[League Circles]

I know but I don't understand why anyone thinks we're going to be able to get "value contracts" for great players. These guys will all get the max. Hell David Lee might get 13 mil a year. Whoever we get is not going to be worth their contract in the last year or two. Brad Miller, Kirk Hinrich, and James Jones are not worth their contracts right now. The key is whether or not they prohibit you from improving or from winning. In the case of any of these guys, I think they help you win throughout their deals.

[League Circles]

IMHO, Ray was better than JJ, but as you note, its not central to the point. Even if Ray = JJ, Ray's collapse after age 31 is a pretty good warning that you can expect a collapse from JJ. I doubt anyone here is going to argue that JJ > Ray Allen.

Basically, by signing JJ to a huge contract you give yourself a 2 year window and I don't think that the team you create during that 2 year period is going to be good enough.

But why a 2 year window? You don't expect Rose, Noah, Deng, Taj, our pick, James Johnson, and an MLE big man at least to all improve? We'll just rely on them less as time goes on. Guys like Allen, Finley, Stackhouse, etc don't necessarily drop off as much as their numbers suggest. Sometime their role is just different. They're not asked to score as much so their volume goes down, perhaps more than their skill goes down.

[sonny]

Allen, Finley and Stackhouse all had a big drop off, not because of their role, but because their bodies started slowing down.

Even if Rose and others improve, it makes no sense to pay 18M to a guy that's now option 3 or 4 because he's no longer good enough to be anything more.

[coldfish]

IMHO, Ray was better than JJ, but as you note, its not central to the point. Even if Ray = JJ, Ray's collapse after age 31 is a pretty good warning that you can expect a collapse from JJ. I doubt anyone here is going to argue that JJ > Ray Allen.

Basically, by signing JJ to a huge contract you give yourself a 2 year window and I don't think that the team you create during that 2 year period is going to be good enough.

But why a 2 year window? You don't expect Rose, Noah, Deng, Taj, our pick, James Johnson, and an MLE big man at least to all improve? We'll just rely on them less as time goes on. Guys like Allen, Finley, Stackhouse, etc don't necessarily drop off as much as their numbers suggest. Sometime their role is just different. They're not asked to score as much so their volume goes down, perhaps more than their skill goes down.

JJ would be declining as they improve and I don't see that core as being able to carry a team to a title. That doesn't matter as far as your point though. If you think that Rose, Noah and Deng can improve so much that they can be an elite team without much help in several years, why drop $16M on JJ? Wouldn't you want younger players?

I have to disagree about Finley, Stackhouse, etc. At least, I'll put it this way, their play fell off to the point where average, MLE type players could match it. Paying $16M per year for MLE type play is a mistake.

I know but I don't understand why anyone thinks we're going to be able to get "value contracts" for great players. These guys will all get the max. Hell David Lee might get 13 mil a year. Whoever we get is not going to be worth their contract in the last year or two. Brad Miller, Kirk Hinrich, and James Jones are not worth their contracts right now. The key is whether or not they prohibit you from improving or from winning. In the case of any of these guys, I think they help you win throughout their deals.

Max contract players like Lebron and Bosh are bargains at the max.

You are right that Miller, Hinrich, etc. are not worth their contracts and it IS prohibiting the team from improving. As has been brought up several times, the Bulls had to turn down a trade for Gasol due to luxury tax. They let Ben Gordon go for financial reasons. Overpaying people, on a team like Chicago with a fixed budget, does have a ripple effect that hurts the overall team.

If you look at the teams that did win without paying the luxury tax, they were chock full of underpaid players at the time.

[aaqubed]

But why a 2 year window? You don't expect Rose, Noah, Deng, Taj, our pick, James Johnson, and an MLE big man at least to all improve? We'll just rely on them less as time goes on. Guys like Allen, Finley, Stackhouse, etc don't necessarily drop off as much as their numbers suggest. Sometime their role is just different. They're not asked to score as much so their volume goes down, perhaps more than their skill goes down.

Right, but the goal is to get another STAR next to Rose, not just another good player.

Rose will continue to improve, but championships are won by having overwhelming talent -- usually two or three stars.

[League Circles]

JJ would be declining as they improve and I don't see that core as being able to carry a team to a title. That doesn't matter as far as your point though. If you think that Rose, Noah and Deng can improve so much that they can be an elite team without much help in several years, why drop $16M on JJ? Wouldn't you want younger players?

I have to disagree about Finley, Stackhouse, etc. At least, I'll put it this way, their play fell off to the point where average, MLE type players could match it. Paying $16M per year for MLE type play is a mistake.

Max contract players like Lebron and Bosh are bargains at the max.

You are right that Miller, Hinrich, etc. are not worth their contracts and it IS prohibiting the team from improving. As has been brought up several times, the Bulls had to turn down a trade for Gasol due to luxury tax. They let Ben Gordon go for financial reasons. Overpaying people, on a team like Chicago with a fixed budget, does have a ripple effect that hurts the overall team.

If you look at the teams that did win without paying the luxury tax, they were chock full of underpaid players at the time.

Regarding younger players, are you talking about Morrow? I think it's fairly likely that morrow is never as good of a player in his career as Johnson will be throughout his next deal. And I believe we can start competing for titles in 2011 if we add another big. Johnson is last on my list of guys I want, but I still want him, because while he doesn't give us a good chance to win a title, he gives us a chance. The alternative would be Kirk, a future MLE pick up, or a late first round pick blossoming. I think JJ will still be a better player in 5 years than those options.

Also, I don't believe that we are on a fixed budget. I'm in denial like that.

[League Circles]

But why a 2 year window? You don't expect Rose, Noah, Deng, Taj, our pick, James Johnson, and an MLE big man at least to all improve? We'll just rely on them less as time goes on. Guys like Allen, Finley, Stackhouse, etc don't necessarily drop off as much as their numbers suggest. Sometime their role is just different. They're not asked to score as much so their volume goes down, perhaps more than their skill goes down.

Right, but the goal is to get another STAR next to Rose, not just another good player.

Rose will continue to improve, but championships are won by having overwhelming talent -- usually two or three stars.

The only guys we can get that will be stars at the end of their deals are Bosh and Lebron. Maybe Amare. Maybe Wade. Hey I think Johnson is last choice but I still think he's better than praying an MLE guy works out or a late first rounder.

I'd try to get Ginobili or TMac on a value contract (2 or 3 years) maybe instead of JJ at the max, but the big we'd be able to add then would be who? Joel P? Camby? Nobody we couldn't get a similar type for the MLE in 2011 anyway.

[dougthonus]

To win a title we need a great big man. Getting a better wing rotation isn't going to considerably lift our odds unless we get a Kobe/Wade/super elite guy.

[League Circles]

To win a title we need a great big man. Getting a better wing rotation isn't going to considerably lift our odds unless we get a Kobe/Wade/super elite guy.

I largely agree. I forgot, what do you think of Amare and Boozer?

[aaqubed]

The only guys we can get that will be stars at the end of their deals are Bosh and Lebron. Maybe Amare. Maybe Wade. Hey I think Johnson is last choice but I still think he's better than praying an MLE guy works out or a late first rounder.

I'd try to get Ginobili or TMac on a value contract (2 or 3 years) maybe instead of JJ at the max, but the big we'd be able to add then would be who? Joel P? Camby? Nobody we couldn't get a similar type for the MLE in 2011 anyway.

I'd rather have the cap room to make a trade to acquire decent valued assets so that, if we strike out on Lebron/Wade/Bosh, we still have a chance at a very good player the next time someone dumps a Pau Gasol (or even a Kevin Martin) for expirings/cap room.

[League Circles]

The only guys we can get that will be stars at the end of their deals are Bosh and Lebron. Maybe Amare. Maybe Wade. Hey I think Johnson is last choice but I still think he's better than praying an MLE guy works out or a late first rounder.

I'd try to get Ginobili or TMac on a value contract (2 or 3 years) maybe instead of JJ at the max, but the big we'd be able to add then would be who? Joel P? Camby? Nobody we couldn't get a similar type for the MLE in 2011 anyway.

I'd rather have the cap room to make a trade to acquire decent valued assets so that, if we strike out on Lebron/Wade/Bosh, we still have a chance at a very good player the next time someone dumps a Pau Gasol (or even a Kevin Martin) for expirings/cap room.

What cap room? There won't be any after this summer. We'll need assets if we want to trade.