You've got $24M to spend and there's no Big 3. Who ya got ?

[Susan]

Players who played over 25000 minutes in their first 9 seasons.

Player, PER through 9 seasons, Minutes played after 9th season, PERs after 9th season, Seasons played total
Dave Cowens, 17.4, 3173 MP, (14.8, 12.6) 11 seasons
Shawn Marion, 20.8, 4237 MP, (16.0, 14.1) 11+ seasons

Antoine Walker, 16.7, 4909 MP, (14.4, 9.6, 11.4), 12 seasons
Dave Bing, 18.3, 6717 MP, (16.0, 15.3, 13.4), 12 seasons
Randy Smith, 16.9, 5638 MP, (17.0, 12.2, 14.5), 12 seasons
Louie Dampier, 15.7, 4431 MP, (10.4, 13.7, 13.3) 12 seasons

Isiah Thomas, 18.9, 9247 MP, (17.4, 16.0, 15.4, 15.2) 13 seasons
Stephon Marbury, 19.7, 6160 MP, (16.4, 15.3, 13.8, 4.4) 13 seasons
Hersey Hawkins, 16.9, 6544 MP, (15.4, 14.0, 11.4, 14.3) 13 seasons
Larry Bird, 24.2, 7072 MP, (19.8, 21.9, 19.7, 21.0) 13 seasons

Mitch Richmond, 17.9, 8803 MP, (20.4, 15.5, 16.5, 14.9, 10.7) 14 seasons
Allen Iverson, 21.1, 12125 MP, (25.9, 19.6, 20.9, 15.8, 13.6) 14 seasons

Michael Finley, 17.5, 11154 MP, (14.3, 12.7, 13.7, 11.4, 11.4, 6.6), 15 seasons
Scottie Pippen, 19.5, 15695 MP, (20.4, 16.8, 15.3, 14.9, 15.3, 12.4) 15 seasons
Dominique Wilkins, 21.9, 11500 MP, (22.2, 24.3, 21.4, 16.3, 19.6, 15.4) 15 seasons
Glen Rice, 17.0, 8127 MP, (15.2, 16.2, 13.7, 8.0, 11.9, 7.3) 15 seasons
Sam Lacey, 14.8, 7212 MP, (14.9, 13.5, 7.4, 15.6 (for 20 miuntes of play), 7.2, 6.5), 15 seasons

17 total players, 132744 total minutes, 7808 MP on average, 18.5 PER on average up to 9th season, 10th season 17.1 PER 8% loss of productivity, 11th season PER 15.5 14% loss of productivity, 12th season PER 14.8 20% loss of productivity, 13th season PER 14.1 26% loss of productivity, 14th season PER 12.8 31% loss of productivity, 15th season PER 9.64 47% loss of productivity

So we're looking at 92% of what the player's total was in season 10, 86% in season 11, 80% in season 12, 74% in season 13, 69% in season 14, 53% in season 15.

And that's from the career total and not even the peak of the player's performance. Say at best we took that from JJ's last 4 seasons and it looks like this, 18.7 PER in his last 4 seasons, 17.2 in season 10, 16.1 in season 11, 15.0 in season 12, 13.8 in season 13, 12.9 in season 14, 9.9 in season 15.

To boot, these guys went from playing at least 2777 minutes per season to playing about 1844 per season. The Joe Johnson roller coaster is going to hit a wall soon and it's not going to be pretty for the team that gets him this offseason. He's played too many minutes and is not good enough to overcome this. NBA players (the human ones which Joe Johnson very much is) fall apart from 25000-28000 minutes played.

So yes, I don't think it's much of a shock to think that Ronnie Brewer will outproduce Joe Johnson from ages 25-30.

[derf]

In this scenario I would expect the Bulls to trade for someone who has one or two years left on a bad contract, the idea would be to kick the can (cap space) down the road until the new CBA is negotiated. Maybe a two year deal for Brad Miller. This would be similar to the Charles Oakley/ Will Perdue contracts under Krausse.

They might pay MAX for LeBron or Wade but that's as far as it goes IMO. Bosch and JJ? they'll try to Low ball them, and there are too many teams with cap space for that to work. Amare and Boozer? they'll float some "bad egg" rumor (might even be true, who knows)?

Noah and Rose will get extensions soon and the cap space will go pfft. Just gotta put up a good show until then.

[BrooklynBulls]

There will be no lowballing of B***. He will receive only offers for the max. He's a top 3 PF. At least.

There will be no "kick the can." There is no room for capspace in the future. The capspace will be spent. Maybe wrongly, but it will get spent, on longterm deals.

IMO.

[coldfish]

Holy crap Susan. Good work.

You should send that to Garpaxdorf. It might give them chills at the thought of giving JJ a contract bigger than 4/60.

[transplant]

Susan, you da man!

In a vacuum, I like Joe Johnson and the other 2nd-tier FAs, but I'm not inclined to throw stupid money at them. Again, unlike the other teams, the Bulls don't have to. The Hawks are obviously thinking along these same lines in letting Johnson walk.

The last time the Bulls felt compelled to spend FA $$, they got Wallace. We're just exiting that tunnel now. Let's not build a new tunnel.

[dafunky1]

This would be my plan:

Trade Kirk, Taj and Charlotte's Pick for Andrew Bynum
Get Omer over here
Try to get Xavier Henry or a defensive sg/sniper with 2010 pick

ok starting line up

pf- Noah
sf-Deng
c-Bynum
sg-1st rd draft pick
pg-Rose

Bynum is now the unquestionable starter,now that is a nice young necleus, you still have money too,Now you have a imposing frontcourt,fill out the rest of your bench.I could be wrong about this tho.

[sonny]

Holy crap Susan. Good work.

You should send that to Garpaxdorf. It might give them chills at the thought of giving JJ a contract bigger than 4/60.

Doubt it.

Know why?





This guy.



Sorry, couldn't resist.

[Ben]

Susan's chart is simply a reason not to to give Joe Johnson anywhere near the max, not a reason to give Ronnie Brewer $7 million/year (and I happen to like Brewer).

I would be up for offering Boozer or Amare, whichever one accepts, at or near the max for 3 years and giving Morrow more than he really deserves ($6-7 million). I do love Morrow's 3 point shooting but I'm not convinced that he can defend the 2 worth a damn or do many of the other things that you'd want from a starting SG. But if we whiff on Lebron, Wade and Bosh I'll be feeling pretty desperate.

Not desperate enough, however, to give Amare or Boozer max money over 5 years.

[League Circles]

Great research Susan, but why years of service rather than age? I'm guessing the answer is you used what you could find, but my point is that for guys like Amare who played no college, obviously they can be expected to perform better in their x year than guys who played college ball.

btw everyone, I've not really understood why Amare is not in the big three, making it a big four. His resume is very impressive. He was an absolute beast today against the Spurs. 41 and 12 I think. His fit is also ideal IMO offensively. His defense is way underrated - it's acceptable. I'd almost pay Amare before I'd pay Wade. I think Wade has by far the most injury concerns going forward along with Boozer. Amare is as healthy as you get as are Bosh and Lebron. I'm not really interested in Joe Johnson. Guards age a lot quicker than bigs IMO.

So yeah to me if you don't get the big three, Amare is the absolute clear cut next choice, unless he doesn't opt out, which I think is BS. He will opt out IMO.

[Susan]

JJ is the 110th best player since the 3 point era started from ages 25-28. Even if he doesn't fall apart compltely and stays in his 100th-120th best PER player since 1980 grouping that he belongs in, he's still looking at 16.0-16.5 PERs from ages 29-33. Not good. Stay away please.

[derf]

There will be no lowballing of B***. He will receive only offers for the max. He's a top 3 PF. At least.

There will be no "kick the can." There is no room for capspace in the future. The capspace will be spent. Maybe wrongly, but it will get spent, on longterm deals.

IMO.

I didn't say Bosch wouldn't get the max, I just do not think the Bulls will pay 145 mil for anyone they cannot market as the next MJ.

LeBron, Kobe and Wade are the only three players in the league that can be marketed as such.

The Bulls have palpatations over Wallace/Gordon/Deng/Chandler sized deals. They will be extremely selective about paying out contracts 2 or 3 times as big.

IMO.

[League Circles]

Oh, to answer the OP's true question (even though I don't think 24 mil is realistic even with trading JJ and our first), I'd offer Amare the max (flat, with no raises) and TMac 7-8 mil a year for 2-3 years.

[MAQ]

That's good reseacher. But I think that's just relying on stats too much.

Right now Joe Johnson is a better player than Brewer. And I'm of the belief that he will continue to be a better player than Brewer until he hits the age of 32 (around there) at which point Brewer could become the better player but it's far from a given. And the idea that Brewer would outproduce Joe Johnson in this system over the next 5 years? That won't happen.


Serious question. Does advance statistics = production?

[theagent]

I'd probably see if I can sign Lee and Morrow using all the capspace.

Rose/Hinrich
Morrow/Hinrich
Deng/Morrow/JJ
Lee/Gibson
Noah/Lee

And a draft pick somewhere in there, Asik if we can afford him, and Brad if he resigns for the min or with remaining space. It doesn't look bad to me. It looks like we've got a 50 game winner with potential for much more.

No you don't, 40-45 wins tops

[Susan]

Susan's chart is simply a reason not to to give Joe Johnson anywhere near the max, not a reason to give Ronnie Brewer $7 million/year (and I happen to like Brewer).

I would be up for offering Boozer or Amare, whichever one accepts, at or near the max for 3 years and giving Morrow more than he really deserves ($6-7 million). I do love Morrow's 3 point shooting but I'm not convinced that he can defend the 2 worth a damn or do many of the other things that you'd want from a starting SG. But if we whiff on Lebron, Wade and Bosh I'll be feeling pretty desperate.

Not desperate enough, however, to give Amare or Boozer max money over 5 years.

I can't really give a good reason why we'd pay that much to Ronnie Brewer. I just threw that out there without much thought. I think whatever he gets, he's going to be on a better deal than JJ over the next 5 years. It's far harder to project what kind of career he's going to have but I'd rather take a small risk on him putting it together than make a major mistake on JJ.

[MAQ]

I'd also like to point out that I don't want to give Joe Johnson any where near 15 million per or more than that. But I'd take Joe Johnson at 12 million per (wont happen) over Ronnie Brewer at 7 million per.

[BrooklynBulls]

There's no need to market Bush as the next MJ. That's how Rose is getting marketed. Or will be, when he tears this league up. Bush is necessary to maximize Rose. And there can't be any lowballing of Bush because nobody underbids when there's already a waiting bid in. Toronto's already made clear that the max is available for Bush, he just didn't sign the extension. Either they won't make any offer at all, or they'll offer him all he can be offered.

The max is set quite low set to the relative worth of LeBron, Wade, and yes, Bosh. When Bosh signs, it will be for less than his actual value. That's right up the Bulls' alley.

Hell, we gave a much worse player nearly the same money. Ben Wallace, 15m a year.

[transplant]

Great research Susan, but why years of service rather than age? I'm guessing the answer is you used what you could find, but my point is that for guys like Amare who played no college, obviously they can be expected to perform better in their x year than guys who played college ball.

btw everyone, I've not really understood why Amare is not in the big three, making it a big four. His resume is very impressive. He was an absolute beast today against the Spurs. 41 and 12 I think. His fit is also ideal IMO offensively. His defense is way underrated - it's acceptable. I'd almost pay Amare before I'd pay Wade. I think Wade has by far the most injury concerns going forward along with Boozer. Amare is as healthy as you get as are Bosh and Lebron. I'm not really interested in Joe Johnson. Guards age a lot quicker than bigs IMO.

So yeah to me if you don't get the big three, Amare is the absolute clear cut next choice, unless he doesn't opt out, which I think is BS. He will opt out IMO.

The problem with Stoudemire is that he's trending down. We can make excuses for it, but despite his age, he's got a lot of mileage on his NBA tires and it gives me pause. Three years ago, he was absolutely awesome..but that was 3 years ago. Anyway, that's obviously the reason the big 3 isn't the big 4.

[BrooklynBulls]

I'm right there with you on JJ, Susan. Better nobody than him at his likely price.

It's the Ronnie Brewer love that threw me. I don't care how handsome he is, stop being led around by your ovaries.

[Ben]

I can't really give a good reason why we'd pay that much to Ronnie Brewer. I just threw that out there without much thought. I think whatever he gets, he's going to be on a better deal than JJ over the next 5 years. It's far harder to project what kind of career he's going to have but I'd rather take a small risk on him putting it together than make a major mistake on JJ.

Gotcha. I agree. I would guess that Brewer will get somewhere b/w $2.5 and $5 million per year, and if it's in the $3-4 million range then yes, I would call it a better deal than Joe Johnson at $16-17 million per year. Especially 3 or 4 years from now.