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That's good reseacher. But I think that's just relying on stats too much.

Right now Joe Johnson is a better player than Brewer. And I'm of the belief that he will continue to be a better player than Brewer until he hits the age of 32 (around there) at which point Brewer could become the better player but it's far from a given. And the idea that Brewer would outproduce Joe Johnson in this system over the next 5 years? That won't happen.


Serious question. Does advance statistics = production?

BrooklynBulls wrote:I'd probably see if I can sign Lee and Morrow using all the capspace.

Rose/Hinrich
Morrow/Hinrich
Deng/Morrow/JJ
Lee/Gibson
Noah/Lee

And a draft pick somewhere in there, Asik if we can afford him, and Brad if he resigns for the min or with remaining space. It doesn't look bad to me. It looks like we've got a 50 game winner with potential for much more.

No you don't, 40-45 wins tops

Ben B. wrote:Susan's chart is simply a reason not to to give Joe Johnson anywhere near the max, not a reason to give Ronnie Brewer $7 million/year (and I happen to like Brewer).

I would be up for offering Boozer or Amare, whichever one accepts, at or near the max for 3 years and giving Morrow more than he really deserves ($6-7 million). I do love Morrow's 3 point shooting but I'm not convinced that he can defend the 2 worth a damn or do many of the other things that you'd want from a starting SG. But if we whiff on Lebron, Wade and Bosh I'll be feeling pretty desperate.

Not desperate enough, however, to give Amare or Boozer max money over 5 years.

I can't really give a good reason why we'd pay that much to Ronnie Brewer. I just threw that out there without much thought. I think whatever he gets, he's going to be on a better deal than JJ over the next 5 years. It's far harder to project what kind of career he's going to have but I'd rather take a small risk on him putting it together than make a major mistake on JJ.

I'd also like to point out that I don't want to give Joe Johnson any where near 15 million per or more than that. But I'd take Joe Johnson at 12 million per (wont happen) over Ronnie Brewer at 7 million per.

There's no need to market Bush as the next MJ. That's how Rose is getting marketed. Or will be, when he tears this league up. Bush is necessary to maximize Rose. And there can't be any lowballing of Bush because nobody underbids when there's already a waiting bid in. Toronto's already made clear that the max is available for Bush, he just didn't sign the extension. Either they won't make any offer at all, or they'll offer him all he can be offered.

The max is set quite low set to the relative worth of LeBron, Wade, and yes, Bosh. When Bosh signs, it will be for less than his actual value. That's right up the Bulls' alley.

Hell, we gave a much worse player nearly the same money. Ben Wallace, 15m a year.

teamCHItown wrote:Great research Susan, but why years of service rather than age? I'm guessing the answer is you used what you could find, but my point is that for guys like Amare who played no college, obviously they can be expected to perform better in their x year than guys who played college ball.

btw everyone, I've not really understood why Amare is not in the big three, making it a big four. His resume is very impressive. He was an absolute beast today against the Spurs. 41 and 12 I think. His fit is also ideal IMO offensively. His defense is way underrated - it's acceptable. I'd almost pay Amare before I'd pay Wade. I think Wade has by far the most injury concerns going forward along with Boozer. Amare is as healthy as you get as are Bosh and Lebron. I'm not really interested in Joe Johnson. Guards age a lot quicker than bigs IMO.

So yeah to me if you don't get the big three, Amare is the absolute clear cut next choice, unless he doesn't opt out, which I think is BS. He will opt out IMO.

The problem with Stoudemire is that he's trending down. We can make excuses for it, but despite his age, he's got a lot of mileage on his NBA tires and it gives me pause. Three years ago, he was absolutely awesome..but that was 3 years ago. Anyway, that's obviously the reason the big 3 isn't the big 4.

I'm right there with you on JJ, Susan. Better nobody than him at his likely price.

It's the Ronnie Brewer love that threw me. I don't care how handsome he is, stop being led around by your ovaries.

Susan wrote:
I can't really give a good reason why we'd pay that much to Ronnie Brewer. I just threw that out there without much thought. I think whatever he gets, he's going to be on a better deal than JJ over the next 5 years. It's far harder to project what kind of career he's going to have but I'd rather take a small risk on him putting it together than make a major mistake on JJ.

Gotcha. I agree. I would guess that Brewer will get somewhere b/w $2.5 and $5 million per year, and if it's in the $3-4 million range then yes, I would call it a better deal than Joe Johnson at $16-17 million per year. Especially 3 or 4 years from now.

Ben B. wrote:

Susan wrote:
I can't really give a good reason why we'd pay that much to Ronnie Brewer. I just threw that out there without much thought. I think whatever he gets, he's going to be on a better deal than JJ over the next 5 years. It's far harder to project what kind of career he's going to have but I'd rather take a small risk on him putting it together than make a major mistake on JJ.

Gotcha. I agree. I would guess that Brewer will get somewhere b/w $2 and $4 million per year, and yes, I would call that a better deal than Joe Johnson at $16-17 million per year. Especially 3 or 4 years from now.

Hell yes that's going to be a better deal 3-4 years from now. Will Brewer outproduce Johnson at that point though?

transplant wrote:

teamCHItown wrote:Great research Susan, but why years of service rather than age? I'm guessing the answer is you used what you could find, but my point is that for guys like Amare who played no college, obviously they can be expected to perform better in their x year than guys who played college ball.

btw everyone, I've not really understood why Amare is not in the big three, making it a big four. His resume is very impressive. He was an absolute beast today against the Spurs. 41 and 12 I think. His fit is also ideal IMO offensively. His defense is way underrated - it's acceptable. I'd almost pay Amare before I'd pay Wade. I think Wade has by far the most injury concerns going forward along with Boozer. Amare is as healthy as you get as are Bosh and Lebron. I'm not really interested in Joe Johnson. Guards age a lot quicker than bigs IMO.

So yeah to me if you don't get the big three, Amare is the absolute clear cut next choice, unless he doesn't opt out, which I think is BS. He will opt out IMO.

The problem with Stoudemire is that he's trending down. We can make excuses for it, but despite his age, he's got a lot of mileage on his NBA tires and it gives me pause. Three years ago, he was absolutely awesome..but that was 3 years ago. Anyway, that's obviously the reason the big 3 isn't the big 4.

I'm not sure, but I think the only that has changed is the pace phoenix plays at. Anyway, he's just as good as last year, and he's a 22/9/1 player who absolutely elevates his game in the playoffs consistently. He's won a lot. He's 27 years old, healthy, and IMO the best offensive fit with Rose. In some ways he's actually my #1 choice.

MAQ wrote:Hell yes that's going to be a better deal 3-4 years from now. Will Brewer outproduce Johnson at that point though?

That's a different story. I don't even expect Brewer to be a starter. I would be paying for him as a very capable backup 2/3.

I just threw that Brewer number out there because I was in a hurry. I don't know what he's going to get but it's going to be a bargain compared to JJ and I want me some of that.

http://www.basketballprospectus.com/art ... icleid=945

While they're not as refined as their baseball stats, they do have far more info at hand than you or I do. They like Ronnie's potential and I completely forgot he was a free agent.

doesn't brewer have an ugly hitch on his shot???

MAQ wrote:

Ben B. wrote:

Susan wrote:
I can't really give a good reason why we'd pay that much to Ronnie Brewer. I just threw that out there without much thought. I think whatever he gets, he's going to be on a better deal than JJ over the next 5 years. It's far harder to project what kind of career he's going to have but I'd rather take a small risk on him putting it together than make a major mistake on JJ.

Gotcha. I agree. I would guess that Brewer will get somewhere b/w $2 and $4 million per year, and yes, I would call that a better deal than Joe Johnson at $16-17 million per year. Especially 3 or 4 years from now.

Hell yes that's going to be a better deal 3-4 years from now. Will Brewer outproduce Johnson at that point though?

I can't predict what Brewer's going to bring to the table but there are massive red flags in JJ's corner. I posted what I thought his next 4 years could look like based on the gauntlet of a NBA career he's had. He's LT, he's Brian Westbrook, he's been used and abused for a good portion of his NBA career. He's about to fall apart. Brewer isn't.

teamCHItown wrote:

transplant wrote:

teamCHItown wrote:Great research Susan, but why years of service rather than age? I'm guessing the answer is you used what you could find, but my point is that for guys like Amare who played no college, obviously they can be expected to perform better in their x year than guys who played college ball.

btw everyone, I've not really understood why Amare is not in the big three, making it a big four. His resume is very impressive. He was an absolute beast today against the Spurs. 41 and 12 I think. His fit is also ideal IMO offensively. His defense is way underrated - it's acceptable. I'd almost pay Amare before I'd pay Wade. I think Wade has by far the most injury concerns going forward along with Boozer. Amare is as healthy as you get as are Bosh and Lebron. I'm not really interested in Joe Johnson. Guards age a lot quicker than bigs IMO.

So yeah to me if you don't get the big three, Amare is the absolute clear cut next choice, unless he doesn't opt out, which I think is BS. He will opt out IMO.

The problem with Stoudemire is that he's trending down. We can make excuses for it, but despite his age, he's got a lot of mileage on his NBA tires and it gives me pause. Three years ago, he was absolutely awesome..but that was 3 years ago. Anyway, that's obviously the reason the big 3 isn't the big 4.

I'm not sure, but I think the only that has changed is the pace phoenix plays at. Anyway, he's just as good as last year, and he's a 22/9/1 player who absolutely elevates his game in the playoffs consistently. He's won a lot. He's 27 years old, healthy, and IMO the best offensive fit with Rose. In some ways he's actually my #1 choice.

I always thought that PER adjusted for pace. If so, we're seeing a 20% dropoff.

Thought I'd make a list of guys on not-so-great contracts that we MIGHT be able to trade for if things get bad as an alternative to overpaying some of the lesser FAs:

Player/cap hit next year/years remaining on deal

Josh Smith 10.8 mil 4 years
Corey Maggette 9.6 mil 3 years
Monta Ellis 11 mil 4 years
Al Jefferson 13 mil 3 years
Emeka Okafor 11.8 mil 4 years
Andres Nocioni 6.8 mil 2 years how ironic would it be?
Gilbert Arenas 17.7 mil 4 years

I went through the payroll of every team to make the above list. I consider it pretty exhaustive. I chose to leave off guys that either we wouldn't want (Elton Brand and AK47) or players that might be on unfavorable deals but whose teams wouldn't trade them for obvious reasons (Pau Gasol, Vince Carter, etc).

It's by no means a lock that the above guys could be ours for what we'd be offering (some combination of Kirk, Taj, JJ, draft picks) anyway. I'm guessing we could probably have Maggette or maybe Arenas if we want. The others are maybes at best. So let's put aside this popular notion that it's like 2004 and every team has two or three horrible contracts, often for good players. Those have largely left the payrolls of NBA teams now. I'd say half the teams in the league don't have one BAD contract.

We really have to go all out in FA. I'm confident we'll get some guys, I just hope it's one of the "big 4" (I include Amare now) and not some combination of Lee, Morrow, TMac, Ray Allen, Camby, etc.

BrooklynBulls wrote:I'd probably see if I can sign Lee and Morrow using all the capspace.

Rose/Hinrich
Morrow/Hinrich
Deng/Morrow/JJ
Lee/Gibson
Noah/Lee

And a draft pick somewhere in there, Asik if we can afford him, and Brad if he resigns for the min or with remaining space. It doesn't look bad to me. It looks like we've got a 50 game winner with potential for much more.

This.

Or:
1) if the Lakers cant win it all this year try to trade Noah and Hinrich for Bynum. Please dont remind me the Lakers wont trade Bynum and the Bulls wont trade Noah! I know but in NBA strange things can happen, and I think its a fair deal anyway.
2) When its done, sign Morrow (we can overpay him if necessary, cause we got almost all of our capspace because of the Bynum-trade).
3) Trade JJ or Taj and draft pick or whatever it takes for Channing Frye.

We got lot of cap space for quality role players.

Rose
Morrow
Deng
Frye
Bynum

This team is balanced, young, talented, players fits well.
This team rocks!

transplant wrote:I always thought that PER adjusted for pace. If so, we're seeing a 20% dropoff.

It adjusts for minutes played, I don't know about pace. Anyways, he's still at 20.6 PER compared to 22.3 for career. His TS% and points per 36 are right in line with his career numbers.

And most importantly, he's 27, healthy, and a big time winner. He's still arguably the most offensively skilled big in the game. I think he's a max player. And, considering the type of game he has, I can easily see him having as big of an impact if added to our team as Wade or Bosh.

Nope, dont trade Noah, you wanna trade Kirk, Taj and a pick to LA for Bynum.My plan is kinda close to yours.I say keep Noah because with Bynum at c and Noah at pf, you have your interior defense, and a big frontcourt,young, and still a boatload of money left.Now you can get Morrow and still have money left.Heck if you want, you can even get Ronnie Brewer.You can even get Omer Asik.And you still have your 2010 1st round draft pick.


pf-Noah
sf-Deng
c-Bynum
sg-Morrow/Brewer/1st round pick
pg-Rose

Bench-JJ,Omer,Vet Min,Brewer,1st rd pick
This clearly becomes Rose's team.This team can contend rather quickly.I think with this plan, theres enough money to hire a head coach, if so desired.

Just for fun let's see how everybody ranks through their respective ages and how their respective seasons fit in with history.

Career PER through age 25
3. Lebron 26.8
18. Chris Bosh 21.3

Career PER through age 26
51. David Lee 19.3

Career PER through age 27
34. Amare Stoudemire 22.3

Career PER through age 28
11. Dwyane Wade 25.5
64. Carlos Boozer 20.8

Best 23 year old PER
4. Lebron 29.1
11. Bosh 23.8
15. Wade 23.1

Best 24 year old PER
1. Lebron 31.7
4. Wade 27.6
24. Amare 23.1
28. Bosh 22.1
106. Lee 18.0
110. Johnson 17.9

Best 25 year old PER
1. Lebron 31.8
3. Wade 28.9 (only 50ish games played)
5. Amare 27.6
9. Bosh 26.3
15. Boozer 24.1
83. Johnson 19.5
96. Lee 19.0

Best 26 year old PER
24. Lee 22.3
28. Boozer 21.9
38. Wade 21.5
58. Amare 20.3
147. Johnson 17.3

Best 27 year old PER
3. Wade 30.4
53. Amare 20.6
111. Johnson 18.2

Best 28 year old PER
6. Wade 27.6
41. Boozer 21.1
58. Johnson 19.8