2011 Season Thread

[kellmellus50]

They activated pitcher Al Alburquerque from the 15-day disabled list and optioned pitcher Ryan Perry to Toledo.

[ajaX82]

...and the second half collapse under Leyland begins

[TSE]

Our team already has collapsed to where we are now, meaning we're pretty settled in at being worth about a .550 win pct (I personally think .700+ should be our target and see no reason why any team in baseball could stop us if we wanted to do a series of moves to get there), but this division is loaded with such losers that we will probably have a great shot at still winning the division no matter what Leyland does. So at least we have something of a pulse to keep us beating down the path.

[ajaX82]

Our team already has collapsed to where we are now, meaning we're pretty settled in at being worth about a .550 win pct (I personally think .700+ should be our target and see no reason why any team in baseball could stop us if we wanted to do a series of moves to get there), but this division is loaded with such losers that we will probably have a great shot at still winning the division no matter what Leyland does. So at least we have something of a pulse to keep us beating down the path.

You do realize how rare it is to win over 70% of your games right? It's happened 14 times in history and twice in the last 50 years. Unless you include teams from the mid-late 19th century, in which case the numbers may be slightly higher.

You can dream all you want though

[kellmellus50]

Tigers 5th starter needed.

That seems to leave Below as the most likely option. Below, who is from Britton, located about 30 miles south of Ann Arbor, is 9-4 with a 3.13 ERA for the Mud Hens. He is 5-1 with a 2.60 ERA in his past eight starts.

http://www.mlive.com/tigers/index.ssf/2 ... n_sta.html

[TSE]

Our team already has collapsed to where we are now, meaning we're pretty settled in at being worth about a .550 win pct (I personally think .700+ should be our target and see no reason why any team in baseball could stop us if we wanted to do a series of moves to get there), but this division is loaded with such losers that we will probably have a great shot at still winning the division no matter what Leyland does. So at least we have something of a pulse to keep us beating down the path.

You do realize how rare it is to win over 70% of your games right? It's happened 14 times in history and twice in the last 50 years. Unless you include teams from the mid-late 19th century, in which case the numbers may be slightly higher.

You can dream all you want though

No team in the last 50 years has built a team with my recipe, so naturally I would expect it to be hard to perform at an uber efficient level, it just doesn't work that way. It is actually possible with my logic to build a team that consistently hits near 90%. To hit an extreme end of a spectrum isn't impossible just cause you aren't comfortable with the concept, and it is especially possible in this real scenario simply because every team has terrible mismanagement issues going on that are horrendously inefficient to their success formula. That's how and why I know my strategy works, cause it's built around the realism of how those teams operate and takes advantages of the mistakes that they make. If every team all of a sudden started making perfect moves, then the market to hit in a higher performance bracket wouldn't be attainable. But today and for the forseeable long-term future, it's not only attainable but there's also no obstruction along the way, you can walk right through and nobody is there to stop you from stepping off the stereotypically accepted standard performance grid.

It's not a dream, it's called a really smart guy doing what he's supposed to do and using his mind to figure out what others can't figure out. There have been millions of people like me before, they are often called, inventors, pioneers, heroes, leaders, winners, etc., and they get those designations because they do what others before them didn't or couldn't do. That's all I'm doing here and nobody can prove any credible objections as to the contrary. That's cause I've done my homework and I wouldn't be babbling on here if I didn't already know what I was talking about in advance. Sports game theory science is me man, I know this stuff inside and out better than any person I've ever met or seen or heard of, and that's good enough for me.

That's why there is so much parity in baseball, because it's the most complicated sport and ignorance runs rampant in the mngmt of this sport on an uber level when compared with the other 3 sports. For an analogy, imagine a giant human maze and lots of people entering one end with the goal being to get out in the fewest steps. Suppose one person has a clearly defined map showing him the most efficient route, so he goes in and walks right out with no problem. But the rest of the masses will get clustered in and dominated by the mass number of options that they have to choose from where they have no way to definitely evaluate why some options might be better than others in terms of making headway. They can't logically process the correct solution because they are absent of the information needed to solve the format they are in. They don't know how to step back and look at the playing surface from a bird's eye view to then calibrate a system of choices that can align their path with a more efficient route. So instead of trying to use logic to figure out how to get to the end while they are stuck, they continue to bang their heads against the walls, and overtime some get lucky and do a better job of making advancements, but the gaps and the variances are tight. Look at how amazingly the teams in baseball can spend MASS MASS greater numbers of payroll dollars versus others, yet every team in baseball still appears within a relatively tight and almost statistically homogenous range. It's like that every year. There is more tightness to the variance per dollar spent from the perspective of this combo variable construct when compared with those other sports. Teams can spend dollar for dollar in football and one can go 16-0 and another can go 0-16. Baseball takes a monetary wild card that can completely skew the range, but yet doesn't because it can't because of the masses of the teams over the long-term of 162 games and thousands upon thousands of mini-decisions that every single team processes in an overall inconsistently correct and logical fashion. Only by removing the broken code that steers you away from making unnecessary mistakes can you break through this bubble.

[kellmellus50]

Tigers need a starting pitcher but i am afraid that they will give away the whole farm or a pitcher like J jurrjens.

Dave Bombrowski's trade scorecard,for every 1 winner he had 2 losing deals

http://www.detnews.com/article/20110723 ... ith-Tigers

[TSE]

And there's no excuse to have any losers. You should never make a trade unless you get more than what you give up, and if you can't come to that determination then you need to ask for more or not make the trades. The problem is with DD's analytics, he doesn't understand the formula of winning baseball, and so he is way off the board in his valuations of players and integrations of certain types of players.

It's ridiculous and the opposite of a fool-proof strategy.

EDIT: There's now a link in the RealGM story tab about why we don't see more trades, with the hypothesis being that GM's are both too insecure and unable to appropriately evaluate their own players. I say yes, that's what it seems like to me! LOLbaseballGMs

[ajaX82]

Ruffin called up. I'll be interested to see him pitch

[kellmellus50]

And there's no excuse to have any losers. You should never make a trade unless you get more than what you give up, and if you can't come to that determination then you need to ask for more or not make the trades. The problem is with DD's analytics, he doesn't understand the formula of winning baseball, and so he is way off the board in his valuations of players and integrations of certain types of players.

It's ridiculous and the opposite of a fool-proof strategy.

EDIT: There's now a link in the RealGM story tab about why we don't see more trades, with the hypothesis being that GM's are both too insecure and unable to appropriately evaluate their own players. I say yes, that's what it seems like to me! LOLbaseballGMs

They also can't evaluate the players they are getting like the 3rd baseman they got he has no power swing also no defence and we gave up 2 good rookies for him he will be gone next yesr he is only batting .222

[TSE]

Yeah I know, and the problems compound beyond that. Like for example, now we don't have the option to play other young players cause Betemit will suck up some of those atbats, that could be time to develop or uncover the next young guy so we don't trade him early before we know if he's good like the last few dozen times we got burned. It also could give a guy time to prove himself and develop a trade market for himself. It's just bad practice, and all it does is waste time, waste opportunity, and add up our cost by millions more.

The biggest cost is that ALL of our players will all age and depreciate by one year, so while you try to gain a small upgrade of WB over BI, when you ultimately fail then the next year you have a small slice of reduced value across your entire organization, and you can't keep you head above water that way. Every single player that ever is part of this team, must have his own logical path of departure in an efficient or profitable fashion. And that's what DD doesn't understand, and that's why we waste tens of millions of dollars every year that we really get nothing in return for, and then massive shortages on win totals, we should be winning at least 20 games a season more than we already are. It's possible to actually top even that mark while still lowering our payroll cost per win ratio, but our team leaders have no vision or understanding of how to be responsible with the team.

[Manocad]

I don't think I've seen a poster yet in this forum whose analysis I disagreed with more than yours, especially baseball. You're the king of Monday morning quarterbacks and speak in nothing but generalities.

Humor me--tell me what the Tigers need to do to get better. And I don't mean "develop young players," I mean "get rid of X, bring up Y, trade for Z", etc.

[TSE]

There is no reason to have an issue with generalities. I'm not the GM of the team so it's not for me to say anything specific, and a managerial plan requires different cogs to interact with others, and until one step is taken, all there are is a mish mash of different hypotheticals. Anything that is too general that ever needs clearing up can easily be done upon request of such in the form of a clarifying question, that's pretty simple. So if you don't care to know, then that's your choice, but don't complain about what you don't understand if you aren't going to participate in the communication process. How is one to know what you disagree with me on, or if perhaps you have a misinterpretation of what any of my positions are? I thus don't know how to qualify the statements in your post as anything other than confusion.

We have to wait til next offseason now cause the trade deadline is passed. For this year our team is set, we can't alter our WS roster with strategic trades now, so now's not the time to sell expendable players. Now all we have is to sit and wait 'til the season is over to restructure, and until then we just hope for the best that we get a shot at winning the WS. Despite the trades being slanted to the point that I deem them as negative trades; there's no dispute since we clearly sold future pieces for "now players" that we have at least a shot now for enough of these pitchers to pan out to stabilize our run for this year.

After the season is over, the strategy will go back to trading away any expendable players towards getting additional new players to shore up our biggest weakness at that time, which will be either offensive players or prospects; not likely to be our pitchers group. So specifically I would say at that time we should trade some of these pitchers we have stockpiled and weed out quantity for quality throughout the organization.

[Manocad]

Never has so little been said in so many words. I'll take that fact that you didn't answer my simple question in any way, shape or form as total confusion.

[TSE]

You asked me what the Tigers need to do to get better, and I said we should trade pitchers as soon as offseason trading opens up. How does that not answer your question?

[TSE]

Good lord, 11 innings of this crap. This team can't manufacture strategy to save their lives. Outhitting them 10-6, but nevertheless this has just been one drag of a game to watch. Hey Jim, how about stealing 2nd base if you cant get anything other than sparse singles, at least give us some hope that we might actually convert a run here and there. Egads. This is not what baseball is supposed to be.

So that's 10 out of 10 hits for singles, w/ a bounty of 2 runs, and no managerial enhancements either on tactics or on getting our players to not swing at balls! How long is it going to take this equally dysfunctional Indians team to put us out of our misery? This game is never going to end, lol good thing we have an infinite pitcher supply. Good luck Cleveland, you guys only have enough pitchers for 8 more innings, and we have enough pitchers for about 8 years

[cochiseuofm]

Congrats to Verlander, he notched his 100th career win last night. If he wins the Cy Young this year too, well it'd be quite the banner year for him.

[TSE]

Going to the game tonight and already feel like a loser to the Twins. That was a smart trade for them to dump Young on us. If you are going to make a move like that, you WANT to sucker a division rival into making a negative move for them. They gain once on the value of the trade, but in relation to us they gain double. So that’s a nice juice to the value of the base trade. Smart move for Minny, save a million or so worth of cold hard cash, get 2 freebie players, and make the Tigers pay the bill for a reject baseball liability. This guys is even worse than Betemit lol.

[chrbal]

As much as the response will make me regret asking this, how can you consider this a bad move? We gave up a guy who has an ERA of almost 5 at high A ball and a PTNBL who no one knows who this will be.

Not to mention Magglio is now a pinch hitter, thank god.

[TSE]

Delmon is a proven illogical baseball player, and the guy we gave up is a fresh 10th round draft pick which is pretty good, and his stats are only bad for one year as he's just getting started, which doesn't prove anything about his future. He could end up being a great pitcher. DY already had his time in the minors and several years in the majors, his credibility factor is through the roof compared to our pitcher and cements him with more certainty of being a bust, and an expensive one too. He doesn't deserve 1 million a year let alone $5.4M! The object of baseball mngmt is to avoid the rejects. If you do that, then you're fine by default lol, we should have let him continue to be a problem for the Twins' long-term health by taking that extra million plus cash savings away from them and 2 wildcard young guys that could possibly be worth extra. This gives the Twins a lot of ammo to catch up to us in the future, whereas deals I approve make the gap bigger, not bridge it!

Oh and to top it all off, we have other minor league OFs that we haven't seen yet that could get those reps. That's worth something too, we might have found an in-house gem that may not be uncovered now, and that may not be the best option or a comfortable option, but nonetheless it IS and WAS an option! Delmon Young is a certain non-qualified illogical option, so even a random minor league call-up makes more sense. That adds to the price of our failure in one tiny extra small way.

Magglio could have been a pinch hitter regardless of whether Delmon is on the team, cause we should have somebody better than Delmon for that roster spot anyhow! This is a real simple sweet move for the Twins, and we did them a favor. That's bad business in the baseball world, and thus another bad day for people that live in Detroit, even if they aren't baseball fans as this will hurt them in a tiny and indirect way too. It's more of Illitch decimating the prosperity of the community he lives in, in addition to the team that he owns. Guys like him are supposed to be leaders and positive members of society (at least in my mind because I believe society should have laws that require the rich and powerful to be responsible and to penalize them with fines and prison terms for being destructive), and he keeps making life worse for all Detroiters.

Oh and to top it all off, we have other minor league OFs that we haven't seen yet that could get those reps. That's worth something too, we might have found an in-house gem that may not be uncovered now, and that may not be the best option or a comfortable option, but nonetheless it IS and WAS an option! Delmon Young is a certain non-qualified illogical option, so even a random minor league call-up makes more sense. That adds to the price of our failure in one tiny extra small way.