Free-agent slugger Vladimir Guerrero

[kellmellus50]

Free-agent slugger Vladimir Guerrero still is trying to find a new home this offseason, and SI.com columnist Joe Sheehan wrote recently that Detroit could be a good fit.

Although he faded down the stretch and in the postseason, Guerrero had a career revival last season with the Rangers, hitting .300 with 29 homers and 115 RBIs.

Sheehan sees Guerrero as an "increasingly attractive option" for the Tigers, because "there simply aren't very many teams looking for a full-time DH, and the ones who might be open to a platoon option -- the A's, the Mariners, the Orioles -- can't be excited about paying star money for a 250-at-bat player."

http://www.detnews.com/article/20110131 ... a-good-fit

[ajaX82]

Martinez is the DH, and Maggs will get some time there as well, so i'm not sure what they are talking about

[TSE]

Well Martinez could play full time catcher. His defensive shortcomings aren't enough to penalize him for his bat advantage. He could also play outfield and open up an opportunity to trade either Martinez or any of our OFs.

Guerrero is exactly what we need to add offensively, he's just not ideal from an age/cost standpoint for the long-term. But if we want to win the WS this year, then getting him should be an immediate high priority, and the dollars spent proportionately to what we have spent are well in our favor to give us a much more secure statistical chance of succeeding, thus the investment would protect our global 2011 budget and possibly be the little extra we need to succeed and win instead of it all going right down the drain again. I would sign him if it was up to me and I was stuck with this DD-style roster design, it's a no-brainer to me for what he is doing.

[chrbal]

Well Martinez could play full time catcher. His defensive shortcomings aren't enough to penalize him for his bat advantage. He could also play outfield and open up an opportunity to trade either Martinez or any of our OFs.

In theory, sure. Realistically, no. Also, why would we trade Martinez?

[TSE]

Cause they can't play both Guerrero and Martinez without taking away Avila at bats and then also forcing a defensive hit by having Martinez catch. So it is very likely that the Tigers will opt to keep the double bonus of playing the young Avila and trying to develop him further coupled with avoiding the defensive penalty Martinez brings, and that trade-off might be more strategic such that if Avila's offense is projected to be a near equivalent of guys like Raburn/Boesch/Wells, then the leftover benefit is avoiding Martinez's defensive penalty of which none of the OFs have that. Martinez also makes more money so if a team gets an injury at DH or C, then it would save us a nice chunk since Martinez is not worth that amount of money considering he is on a team that isn't appropriately fine-tuned for a WS run yet.

So any deal to remove dollars is a MASSIVE benefit cause right now we are short of the breakeven point where we are getting appropriate bang for our buck. In other words, the benefit to cut $10M would give us an elevated benefit of seemingly $10M + x, whereas spending $10M more would have a hidden effect of $10M - x. Look at it this way, if a team had a payroll of $20M and increased by $20M, that would give them more benefit than a team with a $220M payroll going to $240. There are obviously diminshing returns as you go up and that is a constant, however the rates fluctuate within gaps near the dollar amounts the Tigers are in. If you get count in no man's land, then an extra $20M can almost entirely be wasted, i.e. if you are an 88 win team without the $20M but need 90 games to make the playoffs and that $20M only scored you one extra win for 89, you can't make deals like that, there's too much risk and too little reward and you can't beat the house when you are gambling and giving them the juice!

Basically the Tigers are playing Blackjack and DD was dealt an 11, and conventional wisdom beckons him to double down, but he chooses to skip that option. When you get stuck in a no man's land position where you have to spend more in order to NOT take a penalty, then you made a bad choice to put yourself there in the first place and the more likely beneficial solution is to pay your way out and take a piece of the juice back, that's about all you can do. We need to be all-in on another small spending spree, or the massive total amount is subject too way too much risk and a potentially devastating meltdown i.e. another year of unacceptable failure like the previous few years.

[kellmellus50]

Dombrowski also put to rest any speculation that the Tigers could be interested in Vladimir Guerrero.

"He's been an outstanding player for a long time, but it's not a fit for us," the Tigers' GM said. "We're not involved in that, and haven't been."

To sign Guerrero as a free-agent would have meant handing the designated hitter spot to him on a fulltime basis, switching Victor Martinez to catcher and making a backup catcher out of Alex Avila.

It's been the Tigers' plan all along for Avila to handle most of the catching duties.



From The Detroit News: http://detnews.com/article/20110201/SPO ... z1ClSRerpi

[TSE]

Vlad is a fit for any team in baseball, to say otherwise is nonsense. And it sounds like he is available for possibly a steal of a price financially. Let's see what he signs for, you may never again get as much value in a premium veteran bat for the dollar for all we know. But ok.

[ajaX82]

Vlad is a fit for any team in baseball, to say otherwise is nonsense. And it sounds like he is available for possibly a steal of a price financially. Let's see what he signs for, you may never again get as much value in a premium veteran bat for the dollar for all we know. But ok.

Well i'm pretty sure he is not a fit for any NL team, so i'm not sure how he fits with "any team in baseball". He may sign for cheap, but i'm also willing to guess he gets a pretty good sum of money, especially coming off last year.

[kellmellus50]

Vladimir Guerrero #27 Designated Hitter/Right Field

last year Avg .300 HR 29 RBI 115 Runs 83 SB 4

I Fully agree with TSE he can help the Tigers just look at his stats and would fit any team in the AL with his bat and RBI . A lot of teams do not have a player hitting 115 RBI on the whole team.

[TSE]

Vlad is a fit for any team in baseball, to say otherwise is nonsense. And it sounds like he is available for possibly a steal of a price financially. Let's see what he signs for, you may never again get as much value in a premium veteran bat for the dollar for all we know. But ok.

Well i'm pretty sure he is not a fit for any NL team, so i'm not sure how he fits with "any team in baseball". He may sign for cheap, but i'm also willing to guess he gets a pretty good sum of money, especially coming off last year.

Well yeah I should have said AL. I mean he could still play in the NL but obviously an old player who is not going to be a defensive plus is going to be much more valuable to an AL team. Nice looking out though to clarify that!

[kellmellus50]

The Orioles made an offer to designated hitter Vladimir Guerrero, MLB.com confirmed on Thursday.The amount and terms of the offer, which was first reported by FoxSports.com, are not yet known. At one point this offseason, Guerrero requested a two-year deal worth $16 million before dropping his price to one year and $8 million. The O's, on the other hand, had a lower figure in mind. Baltimore's price range for Guerrero is likely in the neighborhood of $3 million to $5 million, according to the FoxSports.com report. The 35-year-old Guerrero posted a .300 average, with 29 homers and 115 RBIs last season with Texas. It's worth nothing, though, that Guerrero's production tailed off in the second half, as he hit just .278 with nine homers after the All-Star break.


http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/fantasy/wsfb/new ... status=otm

[TSE]

Sounds like a possible bargain price is brewing.

[cochiseuofm]

Vlad's 1st half numbers last year: .319 average, 20 HRs, 75 RBIs, .554 SLG
Vlad's 2nd half numbers last year: .278 average, 9 HRs, 40 RBIs, .426 SLG
Vlad's playoff numbers (15 games): .220 average, 0 HRs, 6 RBIs, .271 SLG

No thanks. Vlad was a great player and he had a good year overall last year, but the signs of a decline are clear. He is a 35 year old player who is a defensive liability at this point in his career and I see zero point in signing him. Both Magglio and Martinez will log time at the DH position.

And Vlad can't play outfield. He committed two key errors when he was forced to last year in the World Series, and he only got time there in 18 total games for Texas last year despite appearing in over 150 games.

I don't believe we will trade Martinez.

[kellmellus50]

Veteran slugger Vladimir Guerrero agreed to a one-year, $8 million contract with the Baltimore Orioles on Friday, a source told ESPNdeportes.com

[TSE]

Vlad's 1st half numbers last year: .319 average, 20 HRs, 75 RBIs, .554 SLG
Vlad's 2nd half numbers last year: .278 average, 9 HRs, 40 RBIs, .426 SLG
Vlad's playoff numbers (15 games): .220 average, 0 HRs, 6 RBIs, .271 SLG

No thanks. Vlad was a great player and he had a good year overall last year, but the signs of a decline are clear. He is a 35 year old player who is a defensive liability at this point in his career and I see zero point in signing him. Both Magglio and Martinez will log time at the DH position.

And Vlad can't play outfield. He committed two key errors when he was forced to last year in the World Series, and he only got time there in 18 total games for Texas last year despite appearing in over 150 games.

I don't believe we will trade Martinez.

First, what are you referencing his numbers for? Other than the playoff numbers those are good numbers and they are better than alternative bats that will be taking his place on our team. And in Vlad's career you are going to find a lot less down-times and bad streaks than the vast majority of players. Posting those numbers is evidence for why we would want him on our team. Which side are you arguing for?

Secondly, signing him wouldn't include him playing in the OF so that point is fairly irrelevant. We're also well aware that he's on the decline, any aging player is on the decline. Don't tell me about not wanting guys on the decline, that's what I have been arguing about for years and it's not healthy to do that, and it's not good to do that now, I already consented to that notion so you can't bring it up and then use it to support your side, the element has been conceded on that end. It's not about long-term health to sign a guy like him, it's about trying to win the WS in the short-term which is against long-term advice, but that's what DD is signaling that he's doing. Withing his world and his branding of our strategic position, that's the perspective you have to use as the entry foundation for your analysis, of which him being on the decline due to age is also fairly irrelevant!

And third, of course we won't trade Martinez? Why and how could we? We just signed him as a FA to a competitive offer and he wouldnt be happy in any of those other cities for less money than those that offered more, and those teams know that which would make it a stiff price to get weak value in return for a trade. It's the worst time to trade for Martinez if you're another team. The whole notion of trading Martinez would revolve around a scenario of AFTER we acquire Vlad, which in your premise we don't do, or if we fail and then he no longer wants to be on the TIgers as much during the deadline, so that comment doesn't make much sense to declare either.

[cochiseuofm]

OK, even though he is already signed by the Orioles and the point is moot, I'll bite.

I showed the stats because they show a clear pattern of decline. My opinion, based on those stats, is Vlad is too old to be consistent over the course of an entire season anymore. That he will wear down by the time the playoffs come around.

Second of all if we sign him and he never plays OF, that means he is a full-time DH. Because we sure as hell are not going to pay a guy 8 million dollars, what he got from the Orioles, to be a part-time player. That means, in turn, that Magglio and Victor have to play the field on an everyday basis, or we miss out on their big bats. Not only does that make the Tigers worse defensively, it also means they are increasing the risk of injury to two of their key bats.

And finally, if what you were trying to say was we shouldn't or can't trade Martinez in your first post, I must have misunderstood you. To tell the truth dude, your posts are not very easy to understand because you tend to write in a rambling manner. My point was it made no sense to trade Victor even if we got Vlad.

[TSE]

A clear pattern of decline? What the heck are you talking about? Every single baseball in history has ups and downs, and there's nothing clear about Vlad's pattern. Any baseball player can have a few partial seasons way high up or way high down, but you have no idea what his present pattern is or where he is going.

Your second paragraph makes no sense. If we add Vlad we have ONE extra quality bat. You are griping about merely a chance of losing a quality bat, of which we can afford to lose one and be at the same spot we are now, but the chance to lose a bat isn't as much as the one full bat gained that we get right off the bat by adding Vlad to our roster. The injury concern to lose an offensive player is another point that supports obtaining the player, not the other way around. Again you try to debate your position against mine by actually using the points in my favor and confusingly trying to reshape them to support your position. LOL?

And Magglio and Viktor wouldn't have to play everyday in the field if one of them were traded. And Magglio is a one year and likely out scenario anyhow, and his bat in the game plus his defense on the field is going to be better projected than to have some unproven player who is better at defense and far less likely to eclipse him on offense. Even if Vlad and Magglio both played OF, that would be better overall than to have Wells and Boesch as their defensive upgrades aren't going to come close to matching the offensive loss that they give up to Maggs and Vlad. On a year basis, we would have a set of positive advantages here to win the WS, and every single point you have brought up has been faulty or has the opposite effect of what you describe.

And your point of it making no sense to trade Victory might be interesting to hear if you want to tell us how or why you have come up with that point. And how can you say for sure it makes no sense to trade Victor? We don't want him to play catcher, and as a DH he is not needed as much if we have Vlad, as they both can do that job. So why pay a guy $12M to not play defense, and only offer a nearly identical if not worse bat than somebody else? We could save that money and use that to bolser another position on the team, or gain a free draft pick. We don't have to have both Viktor and Vlad, cause like you said we are running out of spots that are finite, so taking on VLad just makes it far more likely and necessary to trade away Viktor and/or Maggs and/or any other players as well. I don't see how you can dispute that.

[cochiseuofm]

1. It isn't just about the numbers, if you saw Guerrero play you would have seen that he simply wasn't the same players last year. The numbers illustrate that point as his power numbers were clearly down in the second half, and he was badly exposed in the playoffs. Players do have slumps, sure, but when you factor in his age there is genuine concern to be had there.

2. It makes no sense to pay three guys like everyday players and only start two of them on most days. That is what I meant.

3. I reiterate that I doubt we trade any player we just signed, or resigned, this offseason. And I like both Boesch and Wells, I think they are worth giving time to.

4. I have explained this point, not trading Victor, in full on a previous page. Read that post again if you'd like, I'm not going to argue in circles.

[TSE]

You bring up good points. And you are right, none of Guerrero's history matters if he has fallen down a notch due to age and injury. The main highlight for me with Guerrero is how consistent he was with awesome numbers in his career year after year. So this last dip could be a just statistical bad break or indeed have something to it that you may be picking up on if you see him play and can identify a problem there.

I haven't seen him play so I can't argue any further on any of that and most of my argument became watered down when he signed for $8M, cause at the time we were discussing this there was supposedly some rumors that he might sign for as little as $4 or $5M which you can imagine how good that might be after now seeing the reality of him signing for $8M. Cut that in half and what would he have been worth then? I still like him for $8M though, but only in the category of high priced players, cause on an overall statistic there isn't the same value there with obviously so many good players skewing the system with high production for relatively low pay.

[cochiseuofm]

Alright fair enough. I can admit that Vlad would have been a good pickup if he was willing to sign for a good price and play a part-time role happily. But I didn't ever think he was willing to do that (or I'd bet he wouldn't have had to wait so long to find a contract as every team should want him.)