ALDS: Yankees vs Tigers

Post #1 » by **ajaX82** » Thu Sep 29, 2011 2:54 am

Tough first round series, but you gotta beat the best to be the best. And we may have a better shot against them with JV pitching 2/5 of the games, ya know?

Discuss. Get pumped.

RustInPeace · Post #2 » by **RustInPeace** » Thu Sep 29, 2011 9:33 pm

What an amazing end to the season. Best night of regular season baseball ever.

Post #3 » by **ajaX82** » Fri Sep 30, 2011 8:52 pm

RustInPeace wrote:What an amazing end to the season. Best night of regular season baseball ever.

it was pretty damn wild. Seeing the Sawx blow it like that was truly satisfying

JV and CC tonight should be a real doozy

Manocad · Post #4 » by **Manocad** » Sat Oct 1, 2011 12:30 am

I think the Tigers have a pretty decent chance of sweeping. Verlander and Fister are two of the hottest pitchers in baseball right now; if they take two in NY I gotta believe they'll close out in Game 3 at home. And I've got tickets!

ElectricMayhem · Post #5 » by **ElectricMayhem** » Sat Oct 1, 2011 12:43 am

2 strikeouts then Delmon knocks one out.....Once again, great great pickup.

ElectricMayhem · Post #6 » by **ElectricMayhem** » Sat Oct 1, 2011 12:55 am

Inge could've gotten him at home.

It's been a lousy fielding 1st for the Tigers with Avila, Cabrera, and Inge.

Laimbeer · Post #7 » by **Laimbeer** » Sat Oct 1, 2011 12:58 am

GenshiYagyu wrote:Inge could've gotten him at home.

It's been a lousy fielding 1st for the Tigers with Avila, Cabrera, and Inge.

I wish Leyland could accept the fact Inge is a complete liability.

Post #8 » by **ajaX82** » Sat Oct 1, 2011 1:02 am

Inge and Cabrera both made stupid moves early

kellmellus50 · Post #9 » by **kellmellus50** » Sat Oct 1, 2011 1:18 am

The Tigers are playing scared like they do not beleive in themselves. They look like kids out there.
They got a rainout and will regroup the next day . Leland needs to talk to them and settle them down.maybe a rain delay of a day is just what they needed.

The Tigers will send Doug Fister out to the mound Saturday night. Max Scherzer, originally scheduled to pitch Game 3 in Detroit, will now start Sunday's Game 2 in New York. Verlander will start Game 3 at Comerica Park. Rick Porcello will go in Game 4 and Fister is slated to start Game 5.

http://www.freep.com/article/20110930/S ... ext|Sports

Post #10 » by **ajaX82** » Sat Oct 1, 2011 3:34 am

So we're going to pitch Fister twice and JV once? effing Leyland...I guarantee CC pitches twice if necessary

TSE · Post #11 » by **TSE** » Sat Oct 1, 2011 3:57 am

Plus we don't have the home field advantage and we have to play the toughest team in the AL in the first round. "Effing Leyland" was in force before this happened, as we had a SEVERELY compromised position to start this playoff run which is now further compounded with disadvantages due to the continued penalties associated with "effing Leyland".

kellmellus50 · Post #12 » by **kellmellus50** » Sat Oct 1, 2011 12:43 pm

It also means, and this is the most immediate concern for the Tigers, that when plays resumes in the bottom of the second tonight, they'll be facing a right-hander in Nova, but with a lineup tailored for Sabathia, a left-hander.

Because it's a suspended game, they have to come back with the same lineup.

"That's the one little dilemma," manager Jim Leyland said. "But it will work out. I'm going to keep my lineup in there and see how the game plays out."

The difference in the lineups would be that the Tigers would ordinarily start Wilson Betemit at third against a right-hander instead of Brandon Inge. But Inge will be playing because he was in against Sabathia.

From The Detroit News: http://detnews.com/article/20111001/SPO ... z1ZX8hdpeF

Manocad · Post #13 » by **Manocad** » Sat Oct 1, 2011 1:57 pm

TSE wrote:Plus we don't have the home field advantage and we have to play the toughest team in the AL in the first round. "Effing Leyland" was in force before this happened, as we had a SEVERELY compromised position to start this playoff run which is now further compounded with disadvantages due to the continued penalties associated with "effing Leyland".

If Leyland had "severely compromised" this team they wouldn't be in the playoffs.

Oh wait, that's right--under your expert tutelage they would have won 120+ games. I keep forgetting that.

TSE · Post #14 » by **TSE** » Sat Oct 1, 2011 3:41 pm

I disagree, we had plenty of room to fail below our maximum potential and still make the playoffs. We only needed to beat .500, well actually just be .500, and in fact Leyland could have intentionally lost 14 games out of our win column or in some other manner of neglect and we still would have made the playoffs. So take our ACTUAL results and compare with the hypothetical 14 game additional penalty, and that proves right there that he could have hampered us a great deal beyond what we earned and still not cost us the playoffs. Your argument doesn't make any logical sense to me.

And I never said under my tutelage they would have won 120 games, because under my tutelage the players on this team would be different, so it doesn't make any sense to refer to "they" as the same set of people as what I would be working with. In other words, I don't believe it's practical to think that I could win 120 games with this specific set of players. We won 95 games with the players we had. If I was in charge of everything associated with this team except you made a rule that I had exactly the same players and the same transactions to work with, well I believe that my enhancements on all of the other areas combined not associated with roster mngmt would have resulted in an additional 4-5 wins approximately. To win the same amount or less would be highly statistically improbable from my point of view, as would to win 10+ more games. The reason is because all of the mental aspects associated with making decisions and instructing players or what not just isn't practical to be worth more than a 10/95 ratio, the expected value is about half of that. The only way to win 120 games would be to have an entirely new set of players that is conducive to that type of a win frequency. We just don't have enough quality hitters to generate statistical chain bonuses to support that high of a rate.

If we had a perfect way to simulate this team and this season, I don't think we would score 120 wins even once on 100 ran simulations. If I had to guess a fair number where we might see 1 occurrence in that extreme range of a deviation, well I would say you would have to simulate about 1,000 seasons to have a decent chance for an occurrence or two. But I wouldn't guarantee that as a perfectly accurate estimate without first actually doing the relevant math calculations, that's just a shot in the dark guess for a credible simulation count. A more conservative actuarial person might shoot that number up to 5k or 10k, I'm being a little aggressive by only going with 1,000 as a guesstimate imo. But that's because once you are beyond 1,000, I think you have sufficiently demonstrated the rarity of being able to win 120 games to only 42 losses with this set of players. Keep in mind that in our actual results, we had a small absolute number of losses while Verlander was pitching. There isn't much potential to improve on his record, and a lot of potential to have won less games and had even bigger hurdles to overcome in non-Verlander games. (the average simulation isn't going to have Verlander as the #1 best pitcher out of every pitcher in the game, we already beat the odds on him being the clear #1 of the entire set)

RustInPeace · Post #15 » by **RustInPeace** » Sat Oct 1, 2011 4:55 pm

ElectricMayhem · Post #16 » by **ElectricMayhem** » Sun Oct 2, 2011 1:23 am

Not only can I not find a stream today, I can't even get a properly updating box score.

kellmellus50 · Post #17 » by **kellmellus50** » Sun Oct 2, 2011 2:22 am

Game over losing 8-1 N.Y will win this one .better luck sunday.

Post #18 » by **ajaX82** » Sun Oct 2, 2011 2:24 am

just turned it off....ugh. We are in deep trouble now. Scherzer has to pitch strong and get the win tomorrow

ElectricMayhem · Post #19 » by **ElectricMayhem** » Sun Oct 2, 2011 5:06 am

I'm not worried. We've got Porcello on our side.

kellmellus50 · Post #20 » by **kellmellus50** » Sun Oct 2, 2011 11:03 am

Avila was on second with one out, Ryan Raburn was on first. Peralta's single would either load the bases, score Avila with the go-ahead run in a 1-1 game, or, if things didn't go according to script, it could leave the Tigers with two out and two aboard.

Lamont decided in his own split-second window to wave Avila home.

Strategy thwarted.

Avila was cut down at home on a neat series of relays that saw Granderson get the ball to Derek Jeter, who threw a bullet that Yankees catcher Russell Martin caught and turned into a knockout of Avila at home p

From The Detroit News: http://detnews.com/article/20111001/SPO ... ene-Lamont’s-fifth-inning-gamble-comes-up-snake-eyes#ixzz1ZcXkGIri