I have a personal formula that I use that is like a offensive efficiency score (and no don't ask for the formula it's just my own private tool I use for fun, basically it's similar to OPS with some important tweaks. I'm not trying to get anybody to adopt my numbers, so if not being able to see my formula is a sticking point for you, then feel free to dismiss my numbers and just consider this as a list of my rankings of how well these Tigers fared on offense this year as my general opinion)
Here are the overall scores for the team this year, and Inge's last 2 years to show how much he's improved as a hitter overall.
7/17/2009 OE%
M Thames .509
M Cabrera .500
B Inge .485
R Raburn .481
C Thomas .459
C Granderson .456
R Santiago .439
J Larish .394
G Laird .371
P Polanco .368
D Kelly .348
A Everett .341
M Ordonez .326
J Anderson .311
D Ryan .251
C Guillen .207
D Sardinha .035
Inge '08 - .374
Inge '07 - .382
Basically .400 is the minimum acceptable score, anything below is a borderline failure rate and sends a red flag that this is a major area to upgrade, .450 is like .300 is for a batting average.
Interestingly, this year we only have 7 players over .400, last year we had 12 and the year before we had 10.
Our pitching is better this year than either of the last 2 years, and of the 7 high scorers, 4 of them have a relatively smaller amount of at-bats, thus magnifying the clarity of the ginormous problem we have on offense.
I'm Begging For Offense!
I'm Begging For Offense!
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TSE
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Re: I'm Begging For Offense!
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TSE
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Re: I'm Begging For Offense!
By the way, I figured I would update my end of year efficiency rankings, so here are the numbers. The numbers represent how each player performed this year on average per plate appearance. The numbers can also be done in reverse for pitchers with a slight modification, but I am not going to post those as our problems this year other than managerial issues were clearly centered around the ineffectiveness of our hitters. You just can't expect to win in baseball if you have this big of a shortage of quality batters. With the money the Tigers spent this year, they should not have come remotely close to missing the playoffs.
In a simplistic overview, the biggest area we could improve as a team is the entire infield, short of Cabrera. We had 4 weak spots between Laird/Everett/Inge/Polanco. Polanco did finish the year a little short of .400 after being in the .360s the first half, but we need more guys over .400 and well over if possible. Sizemore at 2B next year should have no issues with hitting over .400, however I don't know much about his defensive skills offhand. Rough math estimates and projections would indicate that he has a decent shot of hitting far enough north of .400 to compensate for extra errors he commits, but it could be a close call, and if he falters as a hitter, then we could have a bigger problem there. The biggest upside to him is that he is much less expensive, so for the price paid to him it is a strong value play to take our chances with him.
The other 3 positions are really where we have the most opportunity to do something this offseason to improve the team. We have Inge under contract, so instead of doing a Bonderman for Milton Bradley trade as rumors suggest, I would prefer if we could do some kind of a Bonderman + Inge deal to get a really good 3B hitter. If somehow we could do a Bonderman + Laird deal for a new catcher, that works for me as well. SS and C are our 2 biggest weaknesses and should be extremely high priorities. We can't afford to have Laird or Everett on this roster next year unless we are making massive upgrades elsewhere which don't strike me as practical or economical. Miguel Tejada as a FA at SS would be a convenient fix for the next couple years. As old as he is, he is still VERY good and would give us a massive help in plugging a huge hole.
Anyhow, here are my rankings of how each Tiger has performed in the batter's box this year:
'09 Totals
W Ramirez .679
A Avila .582
M Cabrera .515
R Raburn .503
C Grand... .450
M Thames .430
C Guillen .420
M Ordonez .410
J Larish .394
P Polanco .392
C Thomas .388
B Inge .383
A Huff .382
R Santiago .380
D Kelly .340
A Everett .315
G Laird .315
J Anderson .311
D Ryan .159
D Sardinha .035
A few notes. I have them in 3 groupings. The first group are numbers we can live with and win with. The 2nd group is under desired par, as .400 is the equivalent of about .300 for Batting Avg. The 3rd grouping represents players that aren't good enough for our team and really aren't good enough for any MLB team unless that team has some abundantly sad problems.
Now, that doesn't mean this is what players are worth or an automatic label for them, cause these are just numbers based upon this year's stats, so a guy could have a low number due to a low sample size of atbats, and that doesn't mean he's a bad baseball player, it just means he has performed abysmally in this particular year as an average per plate appearance. Guys like Everett and Laird have been terrible performers for their whole careers, so there isn't much evidence to suggest that they have any real shot of performing well in the future.
With Laird's great arm, in order for him to actually be a worthwhile player for us, he would need to be probably somewhere around .375ish(although I'm just estimating that at the moment, I could supply an exact number if requested) to hit the breakeven point where his defense makes up for his bad hitting, and as you can see he is a whopping .60 pts short which is just discouraging because I would love to use his defense, but we just can't even remotely consider it in this range. There are plenty of catchers than can hit .400+, and no matter how much weaker they are than Laird at defense, they are well above the breakeven point of outplaying him in terms of providing value to our team.
I'm slightly disappointed in Santiago's average of .380, it used to be over .400 at one point, and he has potential to be .400+, which is pretty good considering he plays MUCH cheaper than a guy like Polanco. This is why Sizemore has a lot of appeal, because he can possibly outhit both of these guys. I don't blame Santiago too much due to his spotty and erratic play time, I give some benefit of the doubt when a player can't get into a groove by playing consistently and with a high enough of a sample size of atbats. If he were to get more play time next year, let's hope he can hit north of .400.
Thames really took a big spill. He was well over .500 at one point. However, despite his colossal meltdown in the 2nd half, he is such a potently powerful hitter than he still provided a positive bat for the season as a whole. And really he has shown in his career that he can average close to .500, this .430 final number is just about the bottom of the barrel for him. I like Thames a lot, because even in his lowest point of his personal spectrum he is doing ok, and what if next year he hits the middle or high point of his spectrum? He is very low risk and high reward potential because of his appropriate power that kicks in frequently enough. It's like playing poker with a guy who hits an irregularly high amount of straight draws, as opposed to a guy that doesn't play those pot odds correctly but instead steals small pots and blinds. But this isn't like taking a chance at straight draws under traditional math, Thames offers a way to cheat and steal more straight draws than his fair share, not because of luck but because of his particular skill set. That's why he's still a very underrated player.
Granderson was disappointing. Overall he has a decent score, but not for him. Granderson has proven that he is .500+ capable, and really should be averaging close to that if not over that. This hopefully was a fluke year. If he could just not strike out as much that would be a big help! Same thing goes for Inge who was off the charts with his strikeouts this year with 170 to Grandy's 141, plus Inge had less atbats. Those numbers are mind-bogglingly terrible.
Cabrera also has a weaker number than he should normally get. He has potential to hit .550, so while he has a good overall score, he fell a bit short of his potential, mainly with not hitting the healthiest amount of homers that he is capable of and still too many strikeouts for what a high average hitter would typically produce. It is more likely that Cabrera will exceed this score next year than it is for him to perform under, so hopefully that is the case as we need guys like Cabrera and Grandy and Ordonez and Guillen and Thames to hit closer to their potential to make up for the weaker hitters on the team, and all 5 of those guys I would confidently bet on to produce better scores next year for the season than this year.
Ramirez and Avila will also surely fall down to realistic numbers once they have more chances. Avila actually had over 1.000 at one point after that insane start. It is pretty encouraging that even with his batting average collapse later on that he still had a ridiculously potent score. That bodes well for him.
In a simplistic overview, the biggest area we could improve as a team is the entire infield, short of Cabrera. We had 4 weak spots between Laird/Everett/Inge/Polanco. Polanco did finish the year a little short of .400 after being in the .360s the first half, but we need more guys over .400 and well over if possible. Sizemore at 2B next year should have no issues with hitting over .400, however I don't know much about his defensive skills offhand. Rough math estimates and projections would indicate that he has a decent shot of hitting far enough north of .400 to compensate for extra errors he commits, but it could be a close call, and if he falters as a hitter, then we could have a bigger problem there. The biggest upside to him is that he is much less expensive, so for the price paid to him it is a strong value play to take our chances with him.
The other 3 positions are really where we have the most opportunity to do something this offseason to improve the team. We have Inge under contract, so instead of doing a Bonderman for Milton Bradley trade as rumors suggest, I would prefer if we could do some kind of a Bonderman + Inge deal to get a really good 3B hitter. If somehow we could do a Bonderman + Laird deal for a new catcher, that works for me as well. SS and C are our 2 biggest weaknesses and should be extremely high priorities. We can't afford to have Laird or Everett on this roster next year unless we are making massive upgrades elsewhere which don't strike me as practical or economical. Miguel Tejada as a FA at SS would be a convenient fix for the next couple years. As old as he is, he is still VERY good and would give us a massive help in plugging a huge hole.
Anyhow, here are my rankings of how each Tiger has performed in the batter's box this year:
'09 Totals
W Ramirez .679
A Avila .582
M Cabrera .515
R Raburn .503
C Grand... .450
M Thames .430
C Guillen .420
M Ordonez .410
J Larish .394
P Polanco .392
C Thomas .388
B Inge .383
A Huff .382
R Santiago .380
D Kelly .340
A Everett .315
G Laird .315
J Anderson .311
D Ryan .159
D Sardinha .035
A few notes. I have them in 3 groupings. The first group are numbers we can live with and win with. The 2nd group is under desired par, as .400 is the equivalent of about .300 for Batting Avg. The 3rd grouping represents players that aren't good enough for our team and really aren't good enough for any MLB team unless that team has some abundantly sad problems.
Now, that doesn't mean this is what players are worth or an automatic label for them, cause these are just numbers based upon this year's stats, so a guy could have a low number due to a low sample size of atbats, and that doesn't mean he's a bad baseball player, it just means he has performed abysmally in this particular year as an average per plate appearance. Guys like Everett and Laird have been terrible performers for their whole careers, so there isn't much evidence to suggest that they have any real shot of performing well in the future.
With Laird's great arm, in order for him to actually be a worthwhile player for us, he would need to be probably somewhere around .375ish(although I'm just estimating that at the moment, I could supply an exact number if requested) to hit the breakeven point where his defense makes up for his bad hitting, and as you can see he is a whopping .60 pts short which is just discouraging because I would love to use his defense, but we just can't even remotely consider it in this range. There are plenty of catchers than can hit .400+, and no matter how much weaker they are than Laird at defense, they are well above the breakeven point of outplaying him in terms of providing value to our team.
I'm slightly disappointed in Santiago's average of .380, it used to be over .400 at one point, and he has potential to be .400+, which is pretty good considering he plays MUCH cheaper than a guy like Polanco. This is why Sizemore has a lot of appeal, because he can possibly outhit both of these guys. I don't blame Santiago too much due to his spotty and erratic play time, I give some benefit of the doubt when a player can't get into a groove by playing consistently and with a high enough of a sample size of atbats. If he were to get more play time next year, let's hope he can hit north of .400.
Thames really took a big spill. He was well over .500 at one point. However, despite his colossal meltdown in the 2nd half, he is such a potently powerful hitter than he still provided a positive bat for the season as a whole. And really he has shown in his career that he can average close to .500, this .430 final number is just about the bottom of the barrel for him. I like Thames a lot, because even in his lowest point of his personal spectrum he is doing ok, and what if next year he hits the middle or high point of his spectrum? He is very low risk and high reward potential because of his appropriate power that kicks in frequently enough. It's like playing poker with a guy who hits an irregularly high amount of straight draws, as opposed to a guy that doesn't play those pot odds correctly but instead steals small pots and blinds. But this isn't like taking a chance at straight draws under traditional math, Thames offers a way to cheat and steal more straight draws than his fair share, not because of luck but because of his particular skill set. That's why he's still a very underrated player.
Granderson was disappointing. Overall he has a decent score, but not for him. Granderson has proven that he is .500+ capable, and really should be averaging close to that if not over that. This hopefully was a fluke year. If he could just not strike out as much that would be a big help! Same thing goes for Inge who was off the charts with his strikeouts this year with 170 to Grandy's 141, plus Inge had less atbats. Those numbers are mind-bogglingly terrible.
Cabrera also has a weaker number than he should normally get. He has potential to hit .550, so while he has a good overall score, he fell a bit short of his potential, mainly with not hitting the healthiest amount of homers that he is capable of and still too many strikeouts for what a high average hitter would typically produce. It is more likely that Cabrera will exceed this score next year than it is for him to perform under, so hopefully that is the case as we need guys like Cabrera and Grandy and Ordonez and Guillen and Thames to hit closer to their potential to make up for the weaker hitters on the team, and all 5 of those guys I would confidently bet on to produce better scores next year for the season than this year.
Ramirez and Avila will also surely fall down to realistic numbers once they have more chances. Avila actually had over 1.000 at one point after that insane start. It is pretty encouraging that even with his batting average collapse later on that he still had a ridiculously potent score. That bodes well for him.
Re: I'm Begging For Offense!
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Bartender
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Re: I'm Begging For Offense!
After I seen that Thames high on the list, I gave up on this statistic. Thames is absolutely awful.
TSE wrote:Wow I actually like this trade, good job Mayhew!
Re: I'm Begging For Offense!
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TSE
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Re: I'm Begging For Offense!
Not sure why you are saying that. Thames was over .500 at the all-star break, and ended at .430. To end the season at .430, that shows you how much well below .430 he had to hit in the 2nd half in order to drop to .430. He was TERRIBLE in the 2nd half. The numbers work the same for everybody, and his average over the whole season is .430. A great 1st and lousy 2nd half, and the two average together. But still his numbers are WAY WAY ahead of a guy like Polanco. That's impressive. The fact that he can tolerate such a terrible 2nd half and still have good numbers is an impressive feat. However much he hurt us in the 2nd half, he helped us that much more in the first half. It doesn't matter if you play great in game 1 versus game 150, each game is worth the same amount. And over ALL games, he created more offense for the team than Polanco did per plate appearance.
Re: I'm Begging For Offense!
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kellmellus50
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Re: I'm Begging For Offense!
I like your formula and i am hopeing the Detroit brings in Johnny Damon He hit .282 with 24 home runs and 12 stolen bases for the Yankees last season.He should help the offence.
It sure does need a proven leadoff hitter, though. And Damon’s career .363 batting average, .412 on-base percentage and .961 on-base and slugging percentage at Comerica Park are his best in all three categories at any American League ballpark
It sure does need a proven leadoff hitter, though. And Damon’s career .363 batting average, .412 on-base percentage and .961 on-base and slugging percentage at Comerica Park are his best in all three categories at any American League ballpark
Re: I'm Begging For Offense!
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TSE
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Re: I'm Begging For Offense!
Anybody could help out our offense at this point. I think Damon is a good player, but he's not a strategic value due to his higher salary demands. I would prefer any investment in Damon to be dealt with in the same way I wanted the Valverde money to be invested, and that is in reshaping our infield with guys for the future at SS, C, and 3B, and if not those positions, than any others we can upgrade.
Re: I'm Begging For Offense!
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kellmellus50
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Re: I'm Begging For Offense!
We can forget Johnny Damon Tigers say their have been in no talks with him.
Less than 24 hours after it was first reported that the Tigers were talking to free-agent outfielder Johnny Damon, it turned out they weren't.
According to a Tigers spokesman, Detroit general manager Dave Dombrowski said the team "has not expressed interest" in Damon, MLB.com reported.
Where there was smoke, in other words, there wasn't
Read more: http://www.detnews.com/article/20100115 ... z0cmImvDXs
Less than 24 hours after it was first reported that the Tigers were talking to free-agent outfielder Johnny Damon, it turned out they weren't.
According to a Tigers spokesman, Detroit general manager Dave Dombrowski said the team "has not expressed interest" in Damon, MLB.com reported.
Where there was smoke, in other words, there wasn't
Read more: http://www.detnews.com/article/20100115 ... z0cmImvDXs
Re: I'm Begging For Offense!
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kellmellus50
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Re: I'm Begging For Offense!
TSE wrote:I have a personal formula that I use that is like a offensive efficiency score (and no don't ask for the formula it's just my own private tool I use for fun, basically it's similar to OPS with some important tweaks. I'm not trying to get anybody to adopt my numbers, so if not being able to see my formula is a sticking point for you, then feel free to dismiss my numbers and just consider this as a list of my rankings of how well these Tigers fared on offense this year as my general opinion)
Here are the overall scores for the team this year, and Inge's last 2 years to show how much he's improved as a hitter overall.
7/17/2009 OE%
M Thames .509
M Cabrera .500
B Inge .485
R Raburn .481
C Thomas .459
C Granderson .456
R Santiago .439
J Larish .394
G Laird .371
P Polanco .368
D Kelly .348
A Everett .341
M Ordonez .326
J Anderson .311
D Ryan .251
C Guillen .207
D Sardinha .035
Inge '08 - .374
Inge '07 - .382
Basically .400 is the minimum acceptable score, anything below is a borderline failure rate and sends a red flag that this is a major area to upgrade, .450 is like .300 is for a batting average.
Interestingly, this year we only have 7 players over .400, last year we had 12 and the year before we had 10.
Our pitching is better this year than either of the last 2 years, and of the 7 high scorers, 4 of them have a relatively smaller amount of at-bats, thus magnifying the clarity of the ginormous problem we have on offense.
M Thames .509
he had the highest score yet the tigers releases him and he signed with N.Y. go figure!!! another bonehead move by the tigers
Re: I'm Begging For Offense!
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TSE
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Re: I'm Begging For Offense!
Yep, Thames is a deceptively productive hitter. He has an unusually high proportion of power hits, and that can work for you. It's very valuable when you have a hitter that can be productive overall at a low average. That is great security. In the very least if he doesn't have a good average, he can salvage a good season, and when you get that break and he has his up years for average then you get extra gravy. Plus his cost is really cheap. For the money and having an efficient slugger on the roster/bench it was a no brainer to keep him IMO.
It wasn't .509 for Thames this year though, that's the number from the All-Star Break. He fell apart in the 2nd half and ended at .430 which is still a decent score, but awful for him.
It wasn't .509 for Thames this year though, that's the number from the All-Star Break. He fell apart in the 2nd half and ended at .430 which is still a decent score, but awful for him.