Prospects and trade discussion

Quake Griffin · Post #81 » by **Quake Griffin** » Sun Mar 22, 2015 11:38 pm

Well…if Ryu's shoulder is a problem going into the year, then it's going to be a problem all year or we really just may end up losing him altogether.

I thought we needed to add another pitcher to the staff.
Now we have 3 injury risks plus Greinke's elbow…so 3 and a half.

Ranma · Post #82 » by **Ranma** » Mon Mar 23, 2015 5:43 am

Chad Moriyama, Dodgers Digest (3/22/15)

The Dodgers have an agreement in place to sign 25-year-old Cuban right-handd pitcher Pablo Millan Fernandez on a minor-= league contract for $8 million, according to Ben Badler of Baseball America. This deal seemingly came out of nowhere and is still pending a physical.
...

Due to his age, Fernandez does not count toward the international bonus pool, and because it’s a minor league deal, the luxury tax doesn’t apply either. As a result, should Fernandez reach the majors, he will be on the typical MLB pay scale as any other prospect would.
...

Watch on YouTube

Dodgers Sign Cuban RHP Pablo Millan Fernandez for $8 Million; Now with Video

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Neddy · Post #83 » by **Neddy** » Tue Mar 24, 2015 3:06 am

Ranma wrote:Chad Moriyama, Dodgers Digest (3/22/15)
The Dodgers have an agreement in place to sign 25-year-old Cuban right-handd pitcher Pablo Millan Fernandez on a minor-= league contract for $8 million, according to Ben Badler of Baseball America. This deal seemingly came out of nowhere and is still pending a physical.
...

Due to his age, Fernandez does not count toward the international bonus pool, and because it’s a minor league deal, the luxury tax doesn’t apply either. As a result, should Fernandez reach the majors, he will be on the typical MLB pay scale as any other prospect would.
...

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u6P4JQZi-VU[/youtube]

Dodgers Sign Cuban RHP Pablo Millan Fernandez for $8 Million; Now with Video

[tweet]https://twitter.com/kileymcd/status/580094513357582336[/tweet]
[tweet]https://twitter.com/kileymcd/status/580095522578403328[/tweet]
[tweet]https://twitter.com/kileymcd/status/580121161184366593[/tweet]

wow this came out of no where, and I like this kid from the video you posted.
he has a decent break on his two seamer. it may not be a Pedro 2 seamer, but good enough if located well... and he seems to locate well and commands all pitches on the bottom half of the plate.
I first thought that breaking pitch was a below average curveball until i read your post about his knuckle that runs down like a split, then i realized what i was looking at. very good pitch. If this kid can locate his 2 seamers for ground balls and use that knuckle/split as his strike out pitch, i can see him being a very good one... for a patch up emergency spot starter... and if he can pick up a solid third pitch he can develop into his major league repertoire, he could be a solid back end guy in rotation, or a be solid middle relief who can go multiple innings.

it's good to be the evil empire of the national league. can anyone imagine during our O'Malley days, or McCourt days being able to afford a 8 million dollar signing bonus minor leaguer? or during the incompetent Fox era, to be able to gamble on something like this?

besides, I am not worried about our rotation much. I expressed numerous times how much i love me some Joe Wieland. that kid from Matt Kemp trade was not just a throw in. he is a value. you add him to what we already have, aside from the usual five of Kerhaw/Geinke/Ryu/McCarthy/Anderson, we still also have Wieland/Bolsinger/Lee/Bedard/Huff/Gaudin and even Aardsma/Nicasio/Macgowan and now we have this Millan kid to add to that shuffle.

in the end tho, I sure hope the news is not a season ending surgery for Ryu tomorrow. it can't never be a good news if they are waiting for a full day to make an official announcement on a player's medical exam.

Quake Griffin · Post #84 » by **Quake Griffin** » Tue Mar 24, 2015 3:39 am

So you don't think we need to make a trade if Ryu's shoulder is shot?

Ranma · Post #85 » by **Ranma** » Tue Mar 24, 2015 8:03 am

Quake Griffin wrote:So you don't think we need to make a trade if Ryu's shoulder is shot?

I read somewhere that the Dodgers are indeed looking for more pitching depth in light of the Ryu injury along with other pitchers. However, they've been fielding plenty of calls from other teams looking for pitching themselves, which indicates that there just aren't quality arms available.

I'm with Neddy in wanting to see what Joe Wieland can do as a possibility in the rotation. Pablo Fernandez was certainly an under-the-radar signing who seemed underwhelming, but--assuming he hasn't juiced--I'm likewise intrigued with his fastball now reaching the low 90's consistently along with that knuckleball pitch. He's praised more for his feel for pitching than for his stuff, which is a little similar to Wieland except Joe has a more developed repertoire, obviously.

It's also notable that the Dodgers are converting him from a relief pitcher to starter. The organization was said to only recently show interest in him and that his signing can be attributed to the new front office rather than incumbent Dodgers staff.

J.P. Hoornstra, Los Angeles Daily News (3/22/15)

A third source indicated that the Dodgers’ interest in Fernandez only developed recently. Though Fernandez has some international experience as a middle reliever on the Cuban national team, his performance then might not have piqued the Dodgers’ interest. Alternatively, Fernandez might not have been viewed as a possible defector at the time and therefore wasn’t scouted in earnest.

Interestingly, BA reports that the Dodgers view Fernandez as a starter, despite the fact that he’s started just three games in Cuba since 2008. Fernandez was a closer for Holguin in 2011 and posted a 1.52 earned-run average that led Serie Nacional.

One Latin American evaluator who is not employed by Fernandez or the Dodgers estimated that the pitcher could start out in Double-A. “Once he gets seasoned,” the evaluator said, “I’d compare him to the kid (Odrisamer) Despaigne, whom the Padres signed and ended up using in his first year. He’s not going to be the best ever but won’t need a ton of time.”

Source: Dodgers sign Cuban RHP Fernandez to minor-league contract.

Ranma · Post #86 » by **Ranma** » Tue Mar 24, 2015 6:47 pm

I'm concerned about the cost and elbow, but I trust that Friedman, Zaidi, and the rest of the Dodgers' braintrust know what they're doing, especially since talks had teams reluctant to go beyond 5 years or $53 million. While the amount paid and years are more than what rival executives were anticipating, I'm confident the overall value and production will be worth the expenditure given our front office's emphasis on cost analysis. I am however, glad that the Dodgers are flexing their financial muscle leveraging that advantage after years of watching the Yankees and Red Sox do it to everyone else.

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Quake Griffin · Post #87 » by **Quake Griffin** » Tue Mar 24, 2015 10:03 pm

So Uribe is gone after the year is over?

I can't imagine letting Howie walk unless he sucks this year or a team offers him a crazy amount of years for his age.

Neddy · Post #88 » by **Neddy** » Wed Mar 25, 2015 4:33 am

there is a zero chance Uribe is back. I don't know if we will have Howie back unless he can be signed on one to two year term with a team option thereafter. I highly doubt Kendrick's agent would be comfortable with that.

I dunno if it has been mentioned, but from what i have read Olivera has an option year for 1 million in case he needs a TJS. so there is a concern for his elbow and its real. if we signed him fully knowing he has an elbow issue, then there is little chance he is being looked at for the 3rd base but rather for his natural position at 2nd is likely. we must not be very high on Darnell Sweeney then. I guess in 2016 we are expecting Guerrero - Seager - Oliveras - Gonzo infield with Turner as the primary backup. this looks like a major gamble on the left side of the infield defensively.

BTW I am all in 100% on Joe Wieland. I love the kid and would love to give him a chance.

Ranma · Post #89 » by **Ranma** » Wed Mar 25, 2015 4:52 am

Based on appearances, Hector Olivera looks to be Juan Uribe's replacement whether it is sometime this season or most likely next. The Dodgers only worked Olivera out at third base during their private sessions so it's a pretty clear indication as to what the organization has in mind for him. It also remains to be seen what role Alex Guerrero will play for the club moving forward. Hypothetically, if Guerrero were to secure the starting 3B job, Olivera--assuming he'd be healthy--could move to 2B but he supposedly can also play 1B and LF.

It also looks like the Dodgers were right in identifying a tear of his UCL albeit slight, so I'm confident they know what they're doing moving forward, especially since they're now partnered with a sports technology company specializing in player management and injury prevention.

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Ranma · Post #90 » by **Ranma** » Wed Mar 25, 2015 5:26 am

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Quake Griffin · Post #91 » by **Quake Griffin** » Wed Mar 25, 2015 1:35 pm

The Scouting Report

Hit: 45/55, Game Power: 45/50+, Raw Power: 55/55, Speed: 55/55, Field: 50/50, Throw: 55/55, FV: 50

There’s undeniable talent here: Olivera has above average bat speed, bat control, plate discipline and raw power, which is to all fields and he has a history of getting to in games. He’s an above average runner that can play second base or third base and has an above average arm. That’s an above average everyday player with the statistical track record to give you some confidence that he’ll perform in the big leagues, but there’s real risk of him staying on the field regularly and not having his tools regress in a few years.

What all of this the means is that the optimistic outcome is, in 2015 in the big leagues, that Olivera could hit .260-.280 with a good OBP, 15-20 homers and solid-average base running and defensive value. He may well be better in 2015 than Yasmany Tomas and Rusney Castillo, but given his age and track record, that isn’t going out on much of a limb; the concern is if he’s better than them in the following years and the risk associated with that. It’s possible Olivera will need a couple week in the minors to get up to speed, but he’s seen as a plug-and-play MLB option.

Written a month ago on fangraphs.
sorry if you posted this already, I went back a few pages trying to find a scouting report on the guy. I know Neddy kept mentioning he wanted him. Looks like he has a little bit of everything which turns out to make a pretty good player.

Crawford being in LF limits where Olivera or Guerrero can play in the event of an IF jam.
smfh.

Neddy · Post #92 » by **Neddy** » Fri Mar 27, 2015 1:50 am

alright, guys. Im taking my family out to the desert and will report back once i return from Camelback Ranch... ADIOS AMIGOS!

Ranma · Post #93 » by **Ranma** » Fri Mar 27, 2015 11:55 pm

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Quake Griffin · Post #94 » by **Quake Griffin** » Tue Mar 31, 2015 11:35 pm

Well….out with it Ned.

How was the trip?
Anything you took away from being there about our Dodgers?

Neddy · Post #95 » by **Neddy** » Wed Apr 1, 2015 9:32 pm

Quake Griffin wrote:Well….out with it Ned.

How was the trip?
Anything you took away from being there about our Dodgers?

just got back the other day. it was good! other than my wife getting sick on the first day from the heat and my daughter throwing up from something she ate the last night, it was a baseball paradise. talked to a bunch of cubbie fans as my hotel was right next to their stadium, got to talk to some New Yorkers enjoying the dodger games, even had a chat with a guy claiming to be a porn director name Zach during the dodger/ranger game, lol.

anywho, my observation of the dodgers for the 3 games i watched back to back to back days,

#1. Joc is a star. he will be batting in the heart of the order by mid season. i would assume something like Gonzo-Puig-Joc as 3/4/5 or have Joc - Puig - Gonzo as 2/3/4.

#2. JImmy Rollins should not bat lead off. yes he is a great player and still a very good defensive short stop, but man, he can't get on base and whatever he gives us for wearing out the opposing pitcher with taking more pitches per at bat, I didn't see anything significant enough to warrant him at the lead off. i don't want my most# of at bats guy for this season to be sporting .310 OBP. that is worse than Juan Pierre. I would love to see him bat in the 8th hole.

#3. Carl Crawford is atrocious... he doesn't take pitches and he can't get on base much unless he hits. his defense was horrible. on the dropped flyball to the left, as soon as I saw him break for that routine flyball, i was thinking to myself, 'uh-oh'... immediately i knew he took the wrong angle and had to back peddle. i was hoping he would just take a tumble and hang on, but no...... Greinke was pitching great until Carl dropped that flyball and Zack came undone.

#4. Gonzo's bat speed.... not sure if it is coming or going. hopefully its because he is just getting warmed up.

#5. ironic that the Angels play in a stadium called the "DIablo Stadium"

#6. Mike Trout is the ****. what a player. i don't even like the angels on bit, but after seeing him rob a homerun in the deepest part of the dead center, then come back and crush a homerun, I was compelled to buy his jersey out of respect to the modern day Mickie Mantle.

#7. I am burnt crisp from the 100 degree Arizona sun and now in pain.

Quake Griffin · Post #96 » by **Quake Griffin** » Wed Apr 1, 2015 9:44 pm

Agree on Rollins
Agree on Crawford.

What solution do you have for LF? SVS? Alex Guerrero?

And I am concerned about Gonzo. He's getting older. I thought he had to cheat a lot last year to tee off like he did. That might get him killed this year. Are you expecting a regression?

Neddy · Post #97 » by **Neddy** » Thu Apr 2, 2015 12:51 am

I think both Ethier and Crawford are toxic contracts and nobody in their right mind would touch them, even if we pay half of their contracts.

both have three years remaining (Ethier has a buyout for the 4th) and between Carl's 64 million and Andre's 55+ with the buy out, it is probably easier to trade Ethier as he is also younger and can hit with power if given consistent at bats. Carl's game was entirely based on his athleticism and he is older than Andre too.

If I was the GM, I showcase the hell out of Carl and trade him away one the first bite I get. 3 more years of regressing athleticism for a guy who never had any power or plate discipline is a recipe for a disaster.

if we can do this, our roster will settle nicely with

Puig - Joc - Ethier - SVS - Guerrero in the OF
Gonzo - Kendrick - Rollins - Uribe - Turner - Barney

then use Ethier and SVS as a platoon buddy, Ethier's stats strictly against RHP will make him look like an allstar, then sell him too before the dead line. see if we can even throw in Uribe in the Ethier deal.

use SVS as the everyday LF, then use Guerrero as the ultimate utility guy who subs in at LF/3B/2B and occasional short relief if needed at SS/1B.

promote Oliveras as the everyday 3rd base.

by the end of this season, we can have

Puig - Joc - SVS - Guerrero -

Gonzo - Kendrick - Rollins - Oliveras - Turner - Barney -

and either call up Buck Britton or bring in via trade a professional lefty pinch hitter who can play corner outfield.

Kendrick( lat season his OBP was at .347 not elite but better than Jimmy)
Joc(I would rather my #2 guy strike out with a runner on first than hit a GIDP... but that's just me)
Puig
Gonzo
SVS
Oliveras
Grandal
Rollins
pitcher

then have Turner and Guerrero as the RH, Britton( or a traded player of better value) as the primary LH pinch hitter off the bench and still have Barney and AJ on the bench.

Neddy · Post #98 » by **Neddy** » Thu Apr 2, 2015 12:56 am

one more thing about the what-if line up i posted above, is that that group of guys will be extremely flexible to reconfigure the lineup. there are 4 guys who can lead off, everyone except Jimmy can bat in 3-4-5, and another 4 or 5 guys who can be plugged in the 2 hole or 6-7 hole and do just fine. e

Quake Griffin · Post #99 » by **Quake Griffin** » Thu Apr 2, 2015 5:50 am

What if we can't trade Crawford?
Why not just designate him for assignment and just prorate his contract over time?

I wanna see SVS or Guerrero in LF even if we can't deal him. They're just better and have power, SVS in particular. That kid is a solid OF who just doesn't have wheels. He'll be alright in left.

What'd you see with Adrian's bat speed?
Slower than last year?

Neddy · Post #100 » by **Neddy** » Thu Apr 2, 2015 8:13 pm

Quake Griffin wrote:What if we can't trade Crawford?
Why not just designate him for assignment and just prorate his contract over time?

I wanna see SVS or Guerrero in LF even if we can't deal him. They're just better and have power, SVS in particular. That kid is a solid OF who just doesn't have wheels. He'll be alright in left.

What'd you see with Adrian's bat speed?
Slower than last year?

there is a chance that regardless of what Carl can do on the field, and what we are willing to eat, he is still un-tradeable for the same reasons i mentioned, yes. I also believe that is the exact reason why we are more kin on trading Ethier, as he is probably slightly more likely to be wanted elsewhere.

the issue becomes then, is trading away two left handed outfielders while eating ALL of their money, at least in case of Carl, a better move than keeping him if the replacement is say, Buck Britton? because we can still tell Carl and Andre to sit down and play SVS or Alex over them, the issue becomes about their value versus the roster spot replacement, not lineup card replacement. I think if we can have the other team pay a half their contracts and get some low level prospects or a useful bench player such as a decent left handed pinch hitter who can handle being a professional pinch hitter, then yes Buck is good enough. but if Buck is the only replacement, I can't say Buck is better than either one of the guys made in full to go away... maybe it is... maybe it isn't.

but in the end, I fully trust Andrew and Farran knows what they are doing as they are the most proven commodities in baseball FO circles.

as for Adrian... I dunno which way it really is. there is a part of me that says "it's only a pre-season, and many vets simply tweak their mechanics/swing/pitching motion/etc during the spring training...
but there is that other part of me that saw what i saw.

the first game i saw him, was at the Camelback against the Giants. Adrian squared up and hit the fastball well at his first at bat. it was against a guy named Heston. it was obvious in my eyes and later checked to confirm that Heston is not close to being a fireballer, and a career minor leaguer. it seemed to be about 86-87 mhp and Adrian was waiting, sitting on it all the way. after that, I don't remember hitting another ball.

the last game, against the Rangers i saw him in, was again, against another scrub named Tepesch. he didn't impress me much but his fastball was just so slightly faster, looked to me at around 90. Adrian was sitting on the fastball again, and swung and missed 3 straight pitches. threee pitch strike out and to me, he looked like he was behind all three pitches with his bat. Tepesch is a right handed pitcher, and there was no real deception in his delivery from what i saw ( and for every game i was sitting pretty much at the very front row) and it worried me that Adrian's batspeed is failing his hand-eye coordination.

hopefully I am wrong and it's just a pre-season and he is starting slowly, as most vets do. it is just the way he missed that got me sick to my stomach but it was still only March.