Prospects and trade discussion

[Neddy]

Oh, I learned my lesson with the "Ryu's going to be skinny this year!" narrative from last year's spring training. I know it's not true, but I can't help it. Spring is around the corner and somehow Ryu will be skinny by opening day despite spending the winter shooting noodle commercials.

It's pretty tough for me to judge either Alvarez or Hernandez having seen little and none of them respectively. I do trust the farm system though. They can take a kid like Alvarez, with all of his obvious natural ability, and turn him into something special. I actually more young, Dodger era Pedro in him than Ramon. I wonder if he may end up being better off dropping his arm slot to side arm, which could help his control much like it did for Pedro back in the day as well.

but Pedro was such a little guy, not just short but physically so thin, he had to create a lot of torq from wild and exaggerated movements to pitch with velocity, sort of like Lincecum. Ramon was such a smooth pitcher on the mound and very methodical with each pitch being the same motion and follow through, and was able to do it because he was a bigger, taller guy much like Alveraz's physique. as far as dropping his arm slot, I don't know... I don't think there is one conventional way to fix control. they tried to change Koufax's straight arm angle but he couldnt control any other way, which ended up eating away at his career longevity. Randy Johnson struggled with control for so long and he was always a sidearm guy as far as i can remember. some guys create more velocity from being a submariner than when they throw conventionally, which defies all ideas from what scouts or coaches may teach kids. I think arm slot and control really depends on each individual. But my coaching resume only stretches over being a pitching coach for little leagers. im not exactly a pro or semi pro so if Im wrong, I'm wrong. at the level i coached, we had to stress the same repertoire to everyone because it's about the basics at 11 year old level of competition. my playing career was over with an arm injury at age 14 back in the 80s so please excuse me if you have a sound rebuttal.

BTW those ramen noodle commercials were hilarious. change up to Jin Ramen with Clayton Kershaw... so damn corny. it reminds me of Jack Elliott's happy body drink commercial in the movie Mr. Baseball.

[Quake Griffin]

Good looks CC.

Are we worried about Greinke's elbow?
Kind of annoying that this thing continues to linger.

[Quake Griffin]

We just signed Brandon Beachy to a one year deal with a club option for 2016.
low risk, high reward….and I think he's going to be high reward.

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nLAvbZAS88k[/youtube]
video on how his delivery put pressure on his arm….nothing we can't fix.

Love our new FO guys man. It's truly beautiful.
They actually go after guys I want and have said I want on this forum.

[Neddy]

so i guess this means he is our long man and NIcasio goes to be the middle relief? no doubt he had talent, but coming off his second TJS is what made him to wait all this time to be signed anywhere. like you say, low risk high reward. good chance he starts down in AA for rehab assignment first as well.

but what we need right now, i think is to figure out who closes until Jensen is back? are we considering to convert Brandon Beachy entirely as a bullpen arm? it seems we are sorta playing Theo Epstein style of medicine ball.

[Star-Lord]

Beachy is a nice little late pick up for sure. As long as he's healthy, he should be able to provide a few quality spot starts. As far as bullpen roles go, the company line out of spring training so far is that it'll be a bit of bullpen by committee, which i think has more to do with the sheer number of new bullpen arms in camp this year. It's going to take a while for Donnie and Rick to figure out who they like in which situation, and I imagine we'll see plenty of bouncing back and forth between LA and Oklahoma City for guys like Liberatore.

At least I hope it gets figured out eventually. Pitchers are creatures of habit, and having more defined roles for the bullpen crew should allow these guys to get comfortable quickly.

[Neddy]

the detail i have read about Beachy's contract tells me we bought a limited insurance policy on cheap that may or may not pay off.

2.75 million dollars guaranteed. so the deal starts off cheap.
he will start the season on DL.... so he isn't healthy, and guys coming off second TJ have sketchy history.

but here is where it gets interesting, IF he pitches in just 1 game for us, he gets a half a million dollar bonus.
IF he pitches in 5 games for us, he gets another half a million dollar bonus.
IF 10 games, another half a mil
IF 15, another half a mil
IF 18, another 1/2 mil
IF he gets to 21, another 1/2 mil.

in other words, we aren't even sure IF he can even get one game in, or five. but by some reason he could appear in 21 games for us, his contract grows to 5.25 million. this deal does not sound like we think he could actually play.

one more thing, IF he gets just 10 innings in this year, he gets a $250,000 automatic buyout on his team option of similar incentive laden 3 million guaranteed deal, in case the dodgers decline his option after this season.

sounds to me we are actually paying him 8 to 10 million dollar deal for 2 years, with first year investment being only 2.75 with no more money or commitment going his way in case he can't pitch at all. even if he does recover enough to pitch, at the rate of bonuses structured, he probably won't get the first nod to be a relief pitcher. so potentially, the only way he gets in is if Anderson breaks down half way into the season as Beachy is hopefully getting his rehab starts in the minors.

frankly, I would be super happy never to see Beahcy in dodger uniform ever, as that would mean nobody from our starting rotation has gotten hurt to miss games. last season Kershaw and Ryu missed some big chunk of games on injuries, Anderson missed most of the season with the Rockies, and Greinke is starting this season with what they are calling a "preventive, joint lubrication" injection in his throwing elbow. but if we are having a healthy Beachy start some games in August and September to give our top 3 guys some rest before the playoffs, I would be all for that.

[Quake Griffin]

The option year is interesting to me.

Beachy got one and Anderson didn't but Anderson's pay grade is significantly higher. Looks like the option year is some kind of insurance on Anderson not working out. Zaidi sounds like he really has plans on Beachy getting back to form and performing well. Let's say if he's back to form by next spring (i doubt he'll be the 2011 Beachy this season), he's too talented to keep him in the minors or to try and keep him as a long man.

meh...gives us some depth.
good problem to have.

[Neddy]

The option year is interesting to me.

Beachy got one and Anderson didn't but Anderson's pay grade is significantly higher. Looks like the option year is some kind of insurance on Anderson not working out. Zaidi sounds like he really has plans on Beachy getting back to form and performing well. Let's say if he's back to form by next spring (i doubt he'll be the 2011 Beachy this season), he's too talented to keep him in the minors or to try and keep him as a long man.

meh...gives us some depth.
good problem to have.

my feeling is that even if Beachy does not make a single pitch this season, his option will be picked up as long as he passes the physical.
so Anderson is finally healthy and we wanna give him 10 million to prove he can, and if he can't, the second chance goes to Beachy next season. meanwhile, if Brandon ever makes it to the bigs this year, it's all gravy... which explains all the carrots Zaidi and Andrew are dangling.

[Star-Lord]

And Moncada chooses the Red Sox for a $30 million bonus. I feel like the only real positive that can be taken from this is that I can continue to tell people to shut up whenever they try to compare the Dodgers to the Yankees or the Sox.

Now I'm worried about who's going to play third in 2016.

[Ranma]

I've been meaning to catch up in this thread but for now I'll pass along the following info I found as it seems like the Dodgers have Yadier Alvarez and others as a higher priority than just limiting themselves to just Yoan Moncada and quite possibly Hector Olivera even though they supposedly were willing to pay more than what he got from the Red Sox. The Dodgers are the odds-on favorite to get Olivera at the moment and he won't count against the international signing restrictions, so there's still the likelihood of signing Olivera for a spot on the roster for this upcoming season, then waiting on July 2 to make an aggressive run at Alvarez and others in a full year of signings.

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[Quake Griffin]

kind of interesting that Seager is playing SS ONLY at camp.

I keep waiting for this 3rd Base move and the longer it takes to happen, the more wonder if he's actually just a really good SS that should stay there.

[Neddy]

kind of interesting that Seager is playing SS ONLY at camp.

I keep waiting for this 3rd Base move and the longer it takes to happen, the more wonder if he's actually just a really good SS that should stay there.

.... or we are signing hector to man the 3rd base, and considering an extension to Howie.

[Quake Griffin]

Do you think there's any merit to the idea that playing the tough positions like SS or CF put more stress on the body than the corner OF positions or other IF positions?

Looks like Cano, Pedroia, Kendrick, Mark Ellis, cheating Scutaro before the back injury etc. etc. all could handle 2nd base well into their 30s.

Uribe and Beltre are the oldest 3B in the league and they still have the best glove over there.

but SS just seems different….I guess I shouldn't say that knowing we have old J. Roll at SS and we think he has the defense to play it.
But it just made me think that Seager at a another IF position could preserve him and his bat longer and he wouldn't turn into a Tulo.

i mean players hitting at SS like that are just rare.

[Quake Griffin]

Friedman says he'll help Donnie with the lineup card.

This makes me feel much better about keeping Donnie around.
As long as Donnie doesn't have too much of an ego about it, this could be perfect.

[Star-Lord]

I don't think there's much correlation between positions and proclivity for injuries, outside of catcher and pitcher. Yeah, Tulo can't seem to get healthy, and yeah, he's the guy Corey most resembles, but I think it really just comes down to the individual, their conditioning, playing style, and good or bad fortune.

Like you said, Adrian Beltre and Uribear are 36 apiece, but have been pretty durable to date. Uribear is starting to show signs that the end is near, which makes me wonder how the hell Adrian is still doing it, then missing him in Dodger blue. But anyway, conversely, you have Manny Machado, who's on his second knee surgery in as many years, and he's not even 25. His knee problems seem to have started when he shifted to the hot corner after being called up.

If we're looking at shortstops specifically, then there's no better endorsement for a big shortstop's ability to stay healthy than Ripken. Jeter was good for 150 games every season for the bulk of his career, too, as was Alex Rodriguez back before he was a Yankee. Tulo actually seems to be an outlier among the big shortstops as far as injury history goes. Seager's stayed healthy and managed to impress all the necessary people pretty much exclusively at shortstop so far, so I really don't have any reason to believe he can't stick there for a while anymore.

I'm very curious to see what the lineup card is going to look like with Friedman's influence. We could end up with something really unconventional.

[Neddy]

one thing to remember tho, is that the professional baseball has been around since the late 1800's and Cal was basically the first tall and large SS to play defensively well while hitting as expected, as of a big guy.

one thing that can be said physiologically, is that a shorter, smaller person has a slightly quicker neuron depolarization distance to cover thus slightly faster response to the ball coming his way. knowing that historically the major league baseball had sported far more power hitting righty than the lefties over the last century, it is plausible to think that a smaller, quicker, shorter neuron-connected and heavier myelinated (for faster conduction of depolorization of a sensory nerve to central) of right handed SS were the staple of the league for a very long time. now that the game has changed where we see a ton of power hitting lefties in almost every lineup, it isn't far fetched to think that the guys who would have been a second baseman in yesteryears of baseball are now enjoying an unprecedented level of success as a SS.

[Star-Lord]

one thing to remember tho, is that the professional baseball has been around since the late 1800's and Cal was basically the first tall and large SS to play defensively well while hitting as expected, as of a big guy.

Very true. Seager's a little bigger than Cal too, and I can't recall ever hearing his defense be described as anything better than adequate. His tools as a hitter could make him extremely valuable at the position as long as he doesn't completely crap the bed in the field, though. I'm guessing that, coupled with the fact that there really isn't another shortstop in the system with big league potential yet, are the reasons why everyone seems so insistent on keeping him there.

And since we're on the topic of shortstops, dear Dodgers, please draft this guy in June:

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mpzgqlU0ric[/youtube]
[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZeE2TA7iNYw[/youtube]

[Neddy]

Yo CC, i have to say, I have never heard of this Errol Robinson guy until you posted his vids.

I like his defense, although the vids only showed routine plays, he does look very fluid.

I do not like his swing... he has a lot of fluff in his swing... like WIllie May Hayes who swings for the fences when he should be a contact, ground ball hitter. I am sure it is something that can be corrected or dealt with, if his defense is way above average.

care to post more info about this kid? I am curious about him from what i have seen him turning what i called a "routine" play yet in such smooth and fluid motion. and I am certain he isn't, but by any chance is he related to the great Jackie?

[Star-Lord]

I got to see him play in the CWS last year and became intrigued. He's got the potential to be great up the middle. Not blazing fast, but really quick and bouncy with a solid arm. Seems pretty rangy, but I mostly saw him pouncing on hoppers and bleeders. Turns a double play out of nowhere. Unfortunately there isn't a ton of stuff on Youtube, because he had a gem or two when I got to see him. The swing is, yeah, not so pretty. Totally fixable though.

After doing some looking, most of the scouting reports available are from his high school days in DC, but Baseball Propsectus kind of sums up what I saw well:

A talented defender, Robinson’s defensive game currently outdistances his offensive prowess, as the Ole Miss commit boasts quick feet, good range, smooth actions, and an above-average arm that plays even better due to a quick transfer and clean release. Offensively, Robinson has a simple swing that produces loud line drives, but he struggles to handle quality secondaries and will need to add strength in order to deal with the challenges of more advanced velocity on a daily basis.

Robinson is a solid-average runner on the bases, with an aggressive approach that helps his game to play a notch faster. He profiles as a fourth- to sixth-rounder that could come off the board a tad earlier to a team placing a premium on up-the-middle defense.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=20567

Apparently he models his game after Jose Reyes.

Yeah. I’m not sure if people out there have seen my actions and the way I kind of play the game, but he’s got the speed, he’s got the arm, he’s got the bat, and the way that I field—he’s got the soft hands and I kind of try to emulate his soft hands. When scouts come here and they ask, ‘Who do you model your game after?’ I’ll say, ‘Well, Jimmy Rollins because he’ll make the routine plays and he’ll make the harder plays.’ And they’ll be like, ‘Hmm, I kind of see you as a Jose Reyes guy. You’ve got the soft hands, the arm, you run above average, you steal bases, you like to be loose in the game.’ You know, so I think that’s who I model my game after, Jose Reyes.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/draft-qa-errol-robinson

So yeah, basically he's a quick twitch athlete who's already solid defensively and shown flashes of more, and a bat that can totally come around to at least be serviceable. Probably not a future star, but I could see him being a glove first everyday SS. My guess is he waits til next year and bumps himself up into the early rounds, but him and Dillon Tate from UCSB are my kind of guys.

[Quake Griffin]

GAUCHOS STAND UP!

yessir!