JJ Hardy traded to Twins

[trwi7]

we get a cheaper version of Cameron and younger in the process.

A much cheaper, much worse version of Cameron. Honestly, I'd prefer Gwynn to Gomez.

[Buck You]

Gomez has been just as bad as Gwynn so far, actually maybe worse, Gwynn never had an OBP so low. I guess Melvin is taking a chance on Gomez doing better in the NL, idk how many success stories there have been in that situation though. Or maybe he sees Escobar as being so good that we'll totally forget about Hardy and Gomez. We'll see.

[Wade-A-Holic]

Moving Hart to center and putting Gamel in right is an infinitely more appealing option than starting Gomez and Hart. At this point I'm still hoping the Brewers suck it up with Gamel and stick him in right, move Hart for the best offer out there, bring back Lopez and Counsell as a utility infielders, and find two more outfielders.

John Lowe of The Detroit Free Press says the Tigers weren't involved in trade talks for J.J. Hardy. Brewers' GM Doug Melvin said he was looking for a centerfielder or cost efficient pitching, and he "did not see a match."

Why limit yourself to those two options in a trade? Of course you'll be disappointed if those are the only two things you'll consider in exchange for a guy who just had just slumped for an entire season.

Tony Massarotti of The Boston Globe says that the Red Sox "had been engaging with the Brewers in on-and-off discussions involving (J.J.) Hardy since the trading deadline." Massarotti's source says the Brewers wanted either Clay Buchholz or Daniel Bard, but Boston was only willing to part with Michael Bowden.

Michael Bowden >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Gomez

[WEFFPIM]

After sleeping on this trade for a night...it's still abysmal

[Captain Erv]

Here is a different perspective on the trade, although it really doesn't make me feel much better about it.

Friday, November 06, 2009
Twins strike for J.J. Hardy
Posted by Evan Brunell

In this just-started offseason, Akinori Iwamura, Mark Teahen and Jeremy Hermida have headlined trades. Now, J.J. Hardy makes four.

Hardy, acquired by the Minnesota Twins in exchange for Carlos Gomez, leaves Milwaukee after five seasons. Debuting as a 22-year old, Hardy had quickly established himself as a top-tier shortstop in quick order until 2009 brought in a caving of his offensive numbers.

As soon as a year ago, the Hardy/Gomez swap would have been unthinkable: Hardy was coming off a .283/.343/.478 line with 24 home runs. Defensively, he was one of the strongest shortstops in the bigs, and the sky seemed the limit.

How quickly a year changes matters. Hardy struggled to a .659 OPS, earning himself a late-season demotion to Triple-A that robbed him of his ability to become a free agent after the 2010 season. What Hardy struggled with particularly was his contact rate, not all that surprising given his career batting average pre-2009 was .270.

You can call it karma or the regression to the mean, however, given the fact that Hardy was unlucky in 2009 and similarly lucky in 2008.

Take BABIP as compared to xBABIP (read more on the birthing and reasoning behind xBABIP here) over the years for Hardy. In Hardy's rookie season of 2005, both BABIP and xBABIP remained the same. From 2006-'07, Hardy's BABIP -- the actual result -- trended lower than his xBABIP -- the expected result. As far as BABIP was concerned, Hardy's 2006-7 was unlucky (but not terribly so).

In 2008, things changed. Hardy's xBABIP actually dropped to .279 from .286 after consistently rising -- a mark of a hitter improving. This .279 xBABIP from 2007 ended up being Hardy's BABIP in 2008 -- what Hardy was expected to perform at in 2008 mirrored his actual production in 2007. Put it yet another way. Hardy's .277/.323/.463 line from 2007, strictly from a BABIP/xBABIP perspective, should have been his 2008 line as opposed to the high-water mark he achieved. His 2007 should have been duplicated in 2008.

It wasn't. Why? Because while the 2008 xBABIP mirrored the 2007 BABIP, the 2008 BABIP rose to .305, or roughly a 20-point spike in BABIP. Not coincidentally, his batting average rose 20 points over this time span.

In 2009, Hardy got a rude awakening in BABIP, as it sank all the way down to .264, the lowest since 2006 when he had a .242 batting average. Any wonder, then, that his batting average was .229? When you're looking at a .283 average (what he maintained in 2008) and compare it to 2009's .229, it's an obvious dropoff. But when you look at how precipitously BABIP dropped off and compare it with like BABIPs from previous years, it's not that far a dropoff.

Ah, but would you believe Hardy was actually just as good in 2009 as in 2008? The final numbers may not bear it out, but his 2009 xBABIP ended up at .306... meaning that his 2008 final numbers from a BABIP perspective should have been repeated in 2009!

Instead of his statistics following a consistent 2007-9 progression, his last three years were dicated by luck. Here's the visual evidence below, using actual numbers to simplify matters and placing them where the BABIP/xBABIP correlations command:

Year Actual Expected BABIP xBABIP
2007 .277/.323/.463 Slightly better than ‘07 0.279 0.286
2008 .283/.343/.478 .277/.323/.463 0.305 0.279
2009 .229/.302/.357 .283/.343/.478 0.264 0.306

It looks from this table that Hardy's actually been rather consistent over the last three years: luck has simply gotten in his way (in both directions). Given these numbers, it comes across as if Hardy's true offensive talent lies around his 2007 totals -- at least, looking at the last three years. Entering his age 27 year, he could be primed for another leap forward as he did so from 2005-6. At the very least, however, his poor 2009 shouldn't give anyone any pause at all in evaluating what he can bring to the table. Expecting a line similar to 2007 is the way to go.

For Minnesota, that's a tremendous value coupled with his defense: the Twins will boast one of the top shortstops in the league and have him under control through his age 28 year.

All they had to give up was centerfielder Carlos Gomez, the centerpiece of the Johan Santana swap. Gomez has been a poor hitter, but is still just 23 with plenty of possible fruitful years ahead of him. The cachet here that the Brewers liked was his defense, which should help the Brewers and their flyball pitching staff. A leap forward offensively may be a long shot to ask for, but perhaps Doug Melvin is hopeful Gomez can experience a Michael Bourn-type breakout.

At first, I was incredulous over this deal, believing Hardy should have been shopped for a pitcher. While I still feel the Twins come ahead in the deal, I've come to realize that shipping Hardy out for a bat is actually rather logical. It's far easier to get a position player in a deal than a pitcher, especially ones of like talent. Even if Gomez is the equivalent of a 5.00 ERA pitcher, the latter comes with a higher price tag. Heck, look at the salaries the Brew Crew paid/is paying Jeff Suppan and Braden Looper. By doing this deal, the Brewers have signaled that they will not bring Mike Cameron back. Milwaukee can use that saved money and go after a free agent pitcher, a situation that gives Milwaukee better control over what pitchers come to town and at what cost.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/blog_ ... .j.-hardy/

[Ayt]

The plan is to go with pitching, speed, and defense minus the pitching.

[GrendonJennings]

If Michael Bowden was out there and we instead took Gomez (probably because we knew we were spending the saved money on a free agent gem like Washburn)....I'm pretty depressed.

[WEFFPIM]

If Michael Bowden was out there and we instead took Gomez (probably because we knew we were spending the saved money on a free agent gem like Washburn)....I'm pretty depressed.

Psh, questioning Doug Melvin's eye when it comes to pitching...

[Siefer]

I managed not to think about this trade for a couple of days, but coming back to this thread makes me angry all over again. Just a flat out terrible trade.

[MickeyDavis]

Boston wanted him but Melvin wanted Bucholtz or a CF which Boston didn't have.

[MajorDad]

I would have to believe before making this deal that melvin has made some preliminary talks to some free agent pitchers. this could have also been a way to free up money to be able to afford trading for a guy like halladay. i recall melvin had some lengthy discussions with toronto last year, and toronto wasn't really interested in escobar. I thought they wanted gamel. Toronto looks like they're about to trade overbay for Snyder. Gamel would fit in nicely as their first baseman or dh. and by making this trade, melvin would be able to afford halladay. I also recall melvin received a lot of inquiries about hart 2 years ago. i have to believe melvin is working the phones.

I'm not saying I have confidence in melvin getting a quality pitcher. but i think this trade was a precursor to melvin acquiring a veteran starting pitcher and using Cameron's salary to pay for him. if weeks returns healthy ( a big if) and if hart bounces back to .280 with 25 homers, and if macha actually allows the brewers to become a base steaing team, and if melvin can translate the savings into obtaining a quality starting pitcher, Gomez in center won't be too bad. could gomez become the brewers' ellersbury?

[WEFFPIM]

Someone this earlier in this thread that I think bears repeating - Who's your 5th batter now? McGehee? Not sure I like that at all. Not only did this trade not get back any sort of pitching whatsoever, it's created a hole in the middle of the lineup by sending Cameron out.

[MajorDad]

this move definitely puts a damper on the brewers' batting order. ideally, you would think of Gomez as a light hitting lead-off batter or batting eighth.. but melvin said weeks, when he returns , will bat lead-off. Escobar would also make a nice lead-off hitter, but is probably projected to bat 8th. i would hate to see a batting order of gomez, catcher, Escobar, pitcher at the bottom of the order.. that leaves either hart or mcgeehee to bat 2nd and 5th; unless you bat escobar at lead-off or second. This could lead melvin to try to sign a free agent over the hill catcher with power - somebody like IROD or bengie Molina..

Looking at the batting order, gamel would have been a better fit. or the twins' D young would have been a better fit and he can also play CF. My best guess is that either Gamel or hart bats 5th, and one of them will be traded and gomez bats 7th.

right now, it's an ugly line-up.. lopez would have made a nice bat hitting second behind weeks with hart and mcgeehee hitting 5th and 6th.

As i look back , i am reminded of hardy's stubborness and refusal to switch to play a different position. and if Weeks could have stayed healthy and if hall hadn't gone down the tank. i'm not sure if i'd rather have hardy at short and escobar at second, or Weeks paired up with escobar.

[MajorDad]

We could have got matt Capps for hardy.

http://www.rotowire.com/baseball/player.htm?id=8123

I'm not saying we'd want or need Capps with hoffman around. but that was Pitt's offer. Capps might have made a nice set-up option.

just saying....

[trwi7]

Capps sucks. I'd rather have Gomez.