Brewers 2024 Discussion - Woodruff Back on 2 Year Deal

[Kerb Hohl]

Nice to see Mitchell ending year strong and looking like CF of future.

Chourio is the CF of the future. Mitchell is looking more like a 4th OF, and he'll probably have to compete with Ruiz for that role.

It's going to be real interesting to see what the Brewers do with their OF next year and into the future. With five really good OF prospects (Chourio, Mitchell, Frelick, Wiemer, Ruiz), something has to give. If I was a betting man, I'd lean toward Frelick, Chourio, and Wiemer being the starting OF with Yelich at DH.

Agreed that Mitchell feels more like the 4th OF, but curious what he might fetch as part of a trade.

Given the different timelines and the fact that not all of these guys will pan out, it could be fine.

I'm sure a trade can/will occur, but if not, you've got Chourio as a near lock in CF. Frelick in a corner. Wiemer/Yelich at DH and corner. Ruiz and Mitchell have lower ceilings but both probably are good 4th OF types but you can make it work as the 4th and 5th guys now that we have the DH.

[Kerb Hohl]

Man, I know it will hurt to give up on a final year or two of having two ace pitchers...and they have the prospects/wherewithal to cobble together a solid team to contend the next 2 years...but if they trade Woodruff, Burnes, Adames, Renfroe at points of this year...they will be an absolute force 2024-2030.

Enough of a force to stay in front of the Cubs, who are probably about to spend a billion dollars in free agency the next 2-3 years and have some studs of their own coming up.

[MickeyDavis]

Yeah, it seems as if we have a "glut" of outfielders but chances are we have one, maybe 2 who will be solid starters and mayb another bench player. So many minor league studs turn out to be major league busts..

[Ron Swanson]

I guess I'm in the minority in preferring to run it back one more year with this pitching staff, grab another bat or two in free agency, then reevaluate at the 2023 deadline. If you're not in a strong position to snag the division by the end of July, then sell the farm. We've seen enough teams built on great pitching and platoon offense over the years that can get hot at the right time and make a deep postseason run. I think you could do much worse than Adames/Yelich/Hiura/Tellez/Urias/Mitchell/Renfroe? as the core of a run-producing offense. As others pointed out, we just need some more consistent on-base guys. Overall offense numbers weren't nearly as bad as it seemed, but situational hitting was our absolute death knell.

[ReasonablySober]

I'm usually firmly in the side of blowing things up, but I don't think I'm going to have strong feelings one way or another this offseason. If they want to run it back and try to increase offenses on the margins, then go for it. I'm fine with dealing one or two of the starters for legit upgrades at the plate and in the bullpen. Or if they really did want to do a big rebuild and go into next season with three or four rookies in the lineup I'll be good with that to.

But what I want and expect is for them to have a firm plan in place come August 1, 2023.

[Kerb Hohl]

I'm usually firmly in the side of blowing things up, but I don't think I'm going to have strong feelings one way or another this offseason. If they want to run it back and try to increase offenses on the margins, then go for it. I'm fine with dealing one or two of the starters for legit upgrades at the plate and in the bullpen. Or if they really did want to do a big rebuild and go into next season with three or four rookies in the lineup I'll be good with that to.

But what I want and expect is for them to have a firm plan in place come August 1, 2023.

Agree. I'll take either. If it's Stearns or somebody intelligent, I think they will do well going either direction.

[LUKE23]

Chourio is the CF of the future. Mitchell is looking more like a 4th OF, and he'll probably have to compete with Ruiz for that role.

Chourio is definitely one of the outfielders of the future. If Mitchell hits, he's the best defender of all five OF so he would likely be manning CF. So assuming Chourio has enough power, it could be Frelick/Mitchell/Chourio eventually. If I'm wagering money today I'm putting it on Mitchell outproducing Ruiz at the MLB level (factoring in both sides of the plate).

[MickeyDavis]

Tough one on which way to go. Two years of team control could fetch a good haul.

Read on Twitter

[M-C-G]

Tough one on which way to go. Two years of team control could fetch a good haul.

Read on Twitter

If he wins a cy young again, you are basically cashing him out at peak value. I think you have to explore it.

[MikeIsGood]

I'm on-board with the run it back one more year crowd, but it's heavily dependent upon ACTUALLY bringing in some offensive talent to supplement the current order. I'm just not really convinced we'll actually do that, or do it meaningfully, and think it's more likely that we try to get sold that they did it by adding some minimal, Tellez-level bat. Which isn't going to do it.

I should note that I don't really know who's available that can make meaningful improvement, given that we won't be signing Judge. So I don't know what's realistic.

[WeekapaugGroove]

I get the logic of both running it back for one more push or cashing in on the controllable pitching and planning for 24 and beyond.

Both have dangers. To run it back they need to add free agents bullpen help and also a bat or 3. Feels like free agency is such a god damn crap shoot especially playing in the price ranges the brewers can afford. I guess you just sign one year deals and hope to hit on some.

But prospects aren't some sure thing either so you could blow it up and go a decade without actually having a better shot than they would next year with this pitching.

My only hope is whatever path they choose they go hard. No half measures trying to do both.

Sent from my SM-G986U using RealGM mobile app

[MikeIsGood]

My only hope is whatever path they choose they go hard. No half measures trying to do both.

100%. Don't trade Woodruff and not trade Burnes, or sign a 1 WAR bat and call it a day.

[ReasonablySober]

*whispers*

Pitching is the reason we're not in the playoffs, not the offense.

[Ron Swanson]

Relief pitching, sure absolutely. But, *whispers*...

Spoiler:

.....maybe CC should finally change up his outdated 2018 bullpen strategy and give his starters a longer leash/pitch count.

[ReasonablySober]

Relief pitching, sure absolutely. But, *whispers*...

Spoiler:

.....maybe CC should finally change up his outdated 2018 bullpen strategy and give his starters a longer leash/pitch count.

Bigger issue was starting pitching:

2021: 847 IP, 20.2 fWAR
2022: 849 IP. 12.4 fWAR

They actually pitched more innings this season but were 39% worse. The difference in bullpen fWAR was less than a win between 2021 and 2022.

[Ron Swanson]

I think starting pitching was ultimately the biggest issue down the stretch, especially with Burnes having that uncharacteristically bad stretch. Overall though, you could argue that sans LAD and the Mets, we maybe had the best starting rotation in baseball, and we were 16th in innings pitched by starters. I know a big chunk of that is due to the Peralta injury, but even going average pitch count by starter, it's basically Burnes in the Top-5 (total and average IP), and then no one else even in the Top-50. Of course, that doesn't fix the comical amount of blown saves we had to end the season, but I don't think Craig should be immune from criticism in how he handled some of the locker room stuff and rotations, and his subsequent failure to adapt his pitching strategy to a bullpen that's steadily become depleted in quality over the last couple years.

[ReasonablySober]

I think starting pitching was ultimately the biggest issue down the stretch, especially with Burnes having that uncharacteristically bad stretch. Overall though, you could argue that sans LAD and the Mets, we maybe had the best starting rotation in baseball, and we were 16th in innings pitched by starters. I know a big chunk of that is due to the Peralta injury, but even going average pitch count by starter, it's basically Burnes in the Top-5 (total and average IP), and then no one else even in the Top-50. Of course, that doesn't fix the comical amount of blown saves we had to end the season, but I don't think Craig should be immune from criticism in how he handled some of the locker room stuff and rotations, and his subsequent failure to adapt his pitching strategy to a bullpen that's steadily become depleted in quality over the last couple years.

You can't really make that argument at all.

In 2021 they had an overall fWAR of 23.4, second best in the NL. In 2022 they had an overall fWAR of 14.9, 7th in the NL.

It's the opposite when you look at offense.

In 2021 they had an overall fWAR of 19.0, 8th in the NL. In 2022 they had an overall fWAR of 24.1, 5th in the NL.

Again, it's the starting pitching. In 2021 you had three ace level pitchers, Lauer gave you #2 quality starting pitching in 106 innings, and Hauser was an upper level #4/5.

Everyone took a big step back in 2022. Burnes went from having an all-time, Pedro-esque season to being a middle of the road #1, and it got worse from there in the whole rotation.

So while we all can talk about situational hitting or getting guys on base more or not blowing saves, for the Brewers to actually contend in 2023 what really needs to happen is for the Brewers have aces, plural, in their rotation. It's certainly possible, but it's not something I would necessarily bank on.

[Ron Swanson]

I'm strictly talking from a talent perspective. You don't think if Peralta's healthy that between him, Burnes, and Woodruff, we aren't getting ~500 innings of quality ace-level starting pitching? I think that's precisely why a lot of people are fine essentially running it back one more season. I mean, we can point to any one thing even slightly improving (OBP, blown saves, Peralta injury) and we're in the playoffs right now, but I think if you have doubts about the starting pitching quality next year, then that's 100% reason to just blow it up right now and not even bother trying to field a competitive squad in 2023.

[LUKE23]

If I'm wagering on next season (this would be assuming no trades of Burnes/Woodruff), I would put a lot more cash on the pitching bouncing back to elite than I would the offense being a legit top offense. The rotation did have a lot of injuries, and quite frankly, it just has more talent than the offense. Ashby is likely better in 2023 than 2022, there are likely less injuries, and Burnes/Woody are at ages where you shouldn't expect performance decline.

The offensive numbers as an aggregate didn't look bad, but it was mostly because they had balanced, slightly above average production across the board with a few spots that were pretty good (Adames, Renfroe). That said, they lacked severely in situational hitting and they simply didn't have enough consistent OBP guys in front of the power guys, which is why we saw so many K's and solo HR. Thats why I say there is very little risk to going young in some of the spots to see if they can put OBP guys in front of their power guys. The team needs more OBP/speed to go with the 30 HR guys in Adames/Renfroe/Tellez. Obviously, putting a star hitter in the lineup would be ideal but I don't see that coming until maybe Chourio is up.

Rogers had a 5.48 ERA and Bush had a 4.30 ERA for us. Rosenthal didn't pitch an inning nor did Lamet. The deadline for the bullpen was an absolute disaster for Stearns (even factoring in Hader's overall production for SD), and that paired with the rotation injuries were what sunk the pitching. But if you are pointing to the impact/talent part of this team, it's the rotation without any shred of doubt. Basically what I'm saying is - they could do absolutely nothing with the rotation and I'd be confident heading into next year. No way I'm saying that about the offense.

[MickeyDavis]

Read on Twitter