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Offseason Thread

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Re: Offseason Thread 

Post#41 » by Sweezo » Sun Dec 8, 2013 1:19 am

Bulltalk wrote:3) Trade Paxton, DJ Peterson, Ackley, plus whomever for Matt Kemp

M's get another good hitter, and assume the health risks of Kemp, Dodgers get out of a lot of his contract, are loaded in the OF, get a good young pitcher, our top hitting 3B prospect, and Ackley, a multi-dimensional player who just may reach something resembling his potential down the line


I don't think you can trade 1st round draft picks until a year has passed since acquiring them. I like the idea of adding Kemp but I am not willing to give up a ton of talent to get him. I like the idea of adding Kemp but he's an incredibly risky acquisition. Paxton + Ackley makes some sense to me, plus eating Kemp's contract. I like Paxton but SSS, and Ackely may be a nice Plan B for the Dodgers who have an unknown at 2B.
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Re: Offseason Thread 

Post#42 » by Bulltalk » Sun Dec 8, 2013 6:29 pm

Our very own Geoff Baker wrote an apparently well investigated and scathing column on the Mariners ownership and front office in the Seattle Times. I think we've all been disappointed with our distant majority ownership, with Howard Lincoln and Chuck Armstrong, and in the last few years with Jackie Z. This article gives a clearer insight from the "departed" and some remaining insiders as to how the M's may have been so dysfunctionally bad in the last decade. An excerpt:

"They’ve humiliated people they’ve let go," a current scout said. "And the ones still here hate it. They hate the way they’re treated."

"They don’t want people to tell them the truth about what they want to do," Guerrero said. "They want people who tell them what they want to hear."


More here with links:

http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/2013/12/8/5187328/mariners-front-office-turmoil-jack-zduriencik-eric-wedge

Glad we got Cano signed before this came out. :lol:
"I'm a truth teller. All I do is tell the truth."

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Re: Offseason Thread 

Post#43 » by TTown » Sun Dec 8, 2013 10:26 pm

i think we knew a lot of stuff in that article (not everything), but the most damning thing was the chorus of corroborators baker got. it seemed like people were lining up to get their shot. it really looks like we have a monkeys-with-typewriter situation going on in the front office.

in addition to many of the moves you guys have already brought up, for the life of me i don't know why we haven't brought in a platoon 1B that can hit righties. smoak was more than passable last year against left handed pitching (.260/.361/18 HR). seems to me if we want to go big $ elsewhere (cano, signing choo, bringing in another top arm), a relatively cheap option to shore up 1B would be to just bring in a platoon right handed specialist. he doesn't even need to be outstanding, anything would be better than the nearly non-existent production we get from smoak in those matchups.
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Re: Offseason Thread 

Post#44 » by Sweezo » Mon Dec 9, 2013 9:13 pm

TTown wrote:in addition to many of the moves you guys have already brought up, for the life of me i don't know why we haven't brought in a platoon 1B that can hit righties. smoak was more than passable last year against left handed pitching (.260/.361/18 HR). seems to me if we want to go big $ elsewhere (cano, signing choo, bringing in another top arm), a relatively cheap option to shore up 1B would be to just bring in a platoon right handed specialist. he doesn't even need to be outstanding, anything would be better than the nearly non-existent production we get from smoak in those matchups.


I think Smoak posted that line as a LHB against RHP, but I have trouble keeping it straight too [I always check Baseball Reference just in case]. I agree, adding a RHB against LHP makes a ton of sense. I'd mentioned the Smoak platoon idea earlier in this thread--not because of any great idea I had, but because Jack Z discussed platoons as a possibility on the radio. But I also was leery of the idea because we didn't have a manager yet. How's McClendon as a platoon deployer? Good? Bad? No idea.

I really struggled to find the other half of the platoon in the FA heap. Loney was a name that came to mind but he's a guy you pay to be a starter [and he's really not bad--not a ton of power, but a decent hitter and good defensively] right now.

I'd mentioned Juan Rivera as an option back then. He's 35 years old and he didn't play a lick in the majors last year as he was with the D-Backs' AAA affiliate. But he's historically been very good against LHP, putting up a .289/ .349/.456 line only two season ago. He's a free agent, and...what could he possible cost? The veteran minimum?

If you can add Corey Hart on a decent deal as a primary DH, I think you have a 1B/DH group that, while not All-Star caliber, can produce at a decent level.

Bulltalk wrote:Our very own Geoff Baker wrote an apparently well investigated and scathing column on the Mariners ownership and front office in the Seattle Times. I think we've all been disappointed with our distant majority ownership, with Howard Lincoln and Chuck Armstrong, and in the last few years with Jackie Z.


Honestly, nothing in that article is surprising. Old white businessmen are acting like old white businessmen, puffing their chest and pushing people around. How quaint.

I want to be more disappointed in Jack Z for how he's portrayed, but sometimes that stuff happens when you're trying to save your own job. Jack's 62 years old. If he's canned by the M's, I'm sure he'll work in baseball again...but not as a GM. This is his shot. 30 years in baseball lead to this gig.

You get hired with a plan [rebuild a franchise in a cost effective, concentrate on youth, find bargains in defense/speed/etc., rely on pitching]. Plan fails. Results on the field aren't want you want. Your bosses want changes. You make changes. People are alienated. People lose their jobs. You try Plan B [change dimensions of park, add power, stop relying on youth]. Plan B fails. You make changes. Now, you're on to Plan C [sign free agents, spend money, platoons?].

As great as consistency is, and as much as I support what the plan was when Jack was hired, I get the self-preservation aspect. There's no way I think Jack is as stupid as and analytically ignorant as Tony Blengino makes him out to be. Tony portrays Jack as a buffoon, who "has [never] understood one iota about statistical analysis. To this day, he evaluates hitters by homers, RBI and batting average and pitchers by wins and ERA.” There's no way I buy that claim. Is Jack as proficient in the SABR world as Tony? Clearly not. But I don't think he's a simpleton who who doesn't understand the game at a level any deeper that a 12 year flipping through his baseball card collection.

I'm also heartened to know all the good moves the M's made where the work of Tony Blengino, and all the bad moves were made by others in the organization. [Information courtesy of Tony Blengino--who also spoke to MLB Radio on DEC. 8th and laid into Jack Z again]. Why, just read the article where it indicates "Blengino advised Zduriencik on key moves in a surprising 85-win first season, including the signature acquisition of outfielder Franklin Gutierrez."

So...what about Chone Figgins? Trading Mike Morse for Langerhans? Did you advise Jack on those too or all those all his fault? Advise a GM to add a couple stats favorites who work it, and you take the credit. Advise a GM to add a couple stats favorites who don't pan out...and don't bring it up. At all.

The article tries to paint a picture of a franchise whose rise couldn't be controlled with Jack and Tony together after 2009. It's as if the 2010 season didn't even happen. Remember the 2010 season? I do. Griffey retired in shame. Chone Figgins was brought in, was horrible, seemed to get into it with Wakamatsu. Branyan left, and the cheap replacements [Kotchman, Garko] were horrible. They traded Morrow for League. They traded for Cliff Lee, and then traded Cliff Lee. Franchise scored the fewest runs in the AL since the DH rule was put into effect. Wakamatsu was canned.

Very similar pattern of moves to '09, but nothing worked. I'll bet Armstrong and Lincoln were thrilled. So, it was after this season that Jack Z started to push Tony away and look in a different direction for advice?

Also, I love this quote by Baker:

The Mariners from 2011 to 2013 traded Doug Fister, Michael Pineda, Steve Delabar, Erik Bedard, Mike Carp and John Jaso for limited returns.


That's the proof Baker wants to use to show Jack, after pushing Blengino aside, doesn't get advanced stats? That Jack traded for Jaso--a stat community darling--from the stat loving Rays for the cost of a middling relief pitcher? Didn't they trade for Jaso during this dark, informed period as well?

That Jack traded Delabar, who was also picked up in '11?

That Jack decided to move on from Carp after he'd posted a .255/.327/.413 line over the course of four seasons? I certainly don't recall the STAT community decrying that move at the time. Or ever really seeming interested him as a hitter.

That Jack traded Bedard to a contender in a deadline deal before he hit free agency? The same Bedard who's been horrible as a SP in the next two season?

That Jack traded Pineda who--in two years--hasn't thrown a pitch in MLB? Yeah...another move lauded by Dave Cameron.

There's no justifying the Fister trade. It was a bad move, and it wasn't exactly lauded by M's fans at the time. And Jack's admitted his regret in making that move. He said so in the same interview on 1090 where he discussed platoons.

I know what conclusion Baker is angling for with that list, but he doesn't get there. The conclusion I get--hell, let's throw the Upton rumors and the David Price rumors in to back this up--is Jack doesn't value younger pitchers as much as others do. And I don't that he's wrong to think that, given the number of pitching prospects who never make it. Or get injured. You spend draft capital and money on a guy like Danny Hultzen--a can't miss prospect--and odds are the M's will see no return on that transaction.

I hate to see premium prospects traded for fear they'll go on to succeed elsewhere. As much as I like Tijuan Walker, I do recognize he's a 21 year old who's never thrown more than 160 innings in a season. And yet I feel like I am counting on the guy to be the M's #3 SP this season. In a normal season, Felix throws 230+ innings. There's no way Walker should approach those numbers this season, if I sit and think about it rationally for a minute. I get why a talent evaluator may look at young SP are commodities more than cornerstones.

Anyway, regardless of what's going on in the M's front office...thank God we have Geoff Baker out there, doing such fine reporting and releasing it a day [or two] before the winter meetings. I can't wait for more of his output from his investigative role. Perhaps he can tear down the Sonics Arena campaign? Maybe blow the lid of the Seahawks' organization and their issue with PED's? Let's air all the dirty laundry of all the pro sports teams in the area, at a time when there are positive signs on the horizon after years of bad college football, bad baseball, bad NFl football, and the loss of a pro basketball team. Keep fighting the good fight, Geoff. Too bad the M's have too many non-white players for you too accuse them of racism.

Also, it's great to see Baker pushing this narrative, after years of sparring with the likes of Dave Cameron and wanting the M's to spend big on FA htiters immediately after the M's drop nearly a quarter of a billion dollars on one guy.
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Re: Offseason Thread 

Post#45 » by Sweezo » Mon Dec 9, 2013 10:26 pm

Well, might want to pump the brakes on the Matt Kemp idea...

[tweet]https://twitter.com/JimBowdenESPNxm/status/410166262770454528[/tweet]

He had surgery on October 21st and is still in a walking boot. Guy's supremely talented but...

EDIT: Holy moly...I hope this isn't true...

There are rumors that free agent outfielder Nelson Cruz turned down the Mariners’ offer of 5-years, $75 million. That’s a lot of money for a guy that’s 33 and coming off a PED suspension and doesn’t hit well outside of Arlington. It may actually be a good thing for the Mariners. Cruz is being rumored to be interested in going to Baltimore.


http://blogs.seattletimes.com/mariners/2013/12/09/mlb-winter-meetings-day-1/

Maybe I'm fixated but Cruz is the one name floated out there that I just cannot rationalize for the M's. Beltran? Sure he was in his late 30's but he'd remained productive and I don't think SafeCo would kill him.

But Cruz? He's 33 years old, coming off a P.E.D. suspension, is routinely injured, put up a .556 SLG% at home compared to .435% on the road for his career, is no longer a base stealing threat, is well below average at this point in career using whatever defensive metric you wish, and is about 3 years removed from his prime years.

Over the last three seasons he's been about a .260/.320/.500 guy. Why the hell would you want to pay $15 million per year over the next five seasons for production that will decline?
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Re: Offseason Thread 

Post#46 » by TTown » Tue Dec 10, 2013 12:55 am

i don't know if i believe that report. sounds like agentspeak to me: "hey, the mariners are throwing a bunch of money at everyone, let's leak this and finally get texas to pony up a three year deal."

or maybe we are that stupid. could go either way.
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Re: Offseason Thread 

Post#47 » by Sweezo » Tue Dec 10, 2013 2:37 am

TTown wrote:i don't know if i believe that report. sounds like agentspeak to me: "hey, the mariners are throwing a bunch of money at everyone, let's leak this and finally get texas to pony up a three year deal."

or maybe we are that stupid. could go either way.


Since you brought up the Smoak platoon issue...any suggestions for platoon partners? I dig the idea and am curious about what ideas people can some up with.
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Re: Offseason Thread 

Post#48 » by nuke the whales » Wed Dec 11, 2013 12:18 am

Sweezo wrote:Since you brought up the Smoak platoon issue...any suggestions for platoon partners? I dig the idea and am curious about what ideas people can some up with.


http://baseball.realgm.com/src_wiretap_ ... est_coast/
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Re: Offseason Thread 

Post#49 » by Sweezo » Wed Dec 11, 2013 2:46 am

nuke the whales wrote:
Sweezo wrote:Since you brought up the Smoak platoon issue...any suggestions for platoon partners? I dig the idea and am curious about what ideas people can some up with.


http://baseball.realgm.com/src_wiretap_ ... est_coast/


There's a thought. Youk's only 34 years old and can still draw a walk if nothing else. He posted a robust .086/.200/.114 line against lefties last year in all of 40 plate appearances, but for his career he's at .291/.411/.498 against them. He's not what he used to be but last year's sample size is tiny...I like the idea. And he'd be a good pinch hitter off the bench.
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Re: Offseason Thread 

Post#50 » by BayAreaMadSkill » Wed Dec 11, 2013 7:07 pm

MARINERS AND RANGERS LEAD RACE FOR SHIN-SOO CHOO - PER WIRETAP

Is it just me, or would this be a monster signing for us? I will GLADLY take Choo and his 400+ OBP all day long. He would help our lineup tremendously.


EDIT: Wait, he wants Ellsbury money!? **** me sideways.
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Re: Offseason Thread 

Post#51 » by Sweezo » Wed Dec 11, 2013 7:37 pm

We just grabbed a potential steal away from the Brewers!

[tweet]https://twitter.com/JonHeymanCBS/status/410854181092618240[/tweet]

I know he wasn't healthy last year--I was surprised to see he didn't even play in a game last year--but moving from the NL to the AL is a good move for his health alone. A healthy Hart is a career .276/.334/.491 hitter. This is exciting.

Seriously, how underrated is Hart?

[tweet]https://twitter.com/based_ball/status/410855937897799680[/tweet]

I think this seals Morales' fate as well. For all the **** the M's front office has received, they've landed Cano, they landed Hart, and they played the Morales thing very well ensuring compensation when he has to settle somewhere.

If it's truly the M's and Rangers going head to head for Choo, and we get him? Even if he's flirting with Ellsbury money? Fine, keep Ackley in the outfield. Maybe we win the Bartolo Colon derby too? Great. Let Franklin battle for the SS gig with Miller and use him all over the infield. Go into the season with some depth for a change. Find a catcher to rotate with Zunino off the scrap heap, tinker with the bullpen if you must, but I don't care as much about those things right now.
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Re: Offseason Thread 

Post#52 » by BayAreaMadSkill » Wed Dec 11, 2013 8:27 pm

What the hell is wRC+ and why do I care about it? :lol:

Hart seems like a great low-risk signing. He could turn out to be very productive offensively. After this signing, I REALLY want Choo. But God; Not for $20 mil per season.
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Re: Offseason Thread 

Post#53 » by Sweezo » Wed Dec 11, 2013 9:11 pm

More news!

[tweet]https://twitter.com/clarkspencer/status/410860456505389056[/tweet]

LoMo's had a rough go of it the last three years, but in 2010 he hit .283/.390/.447. If he's over his maturity issues and his injuries, he could be a good get. I don't mind adding guys who might be reclamation projects to see what the new coaching staff can do with them. And I don't mind trading Carter Capps who has potential but really struggled to harness it last year.

BayAreaMadSkill wrote:What the hell is wRC+ and why do I care about it? :lol:


Sorry...

As you may have noticed, there’s now an extra column in the “Advanced” section for batting stats called “wRC+”. You can think of this stat as a wOBA based version of OPS+. It’s park and league adjusted and it’s on a very similar scale as OPS+. The difference is that it uses wRC, which is based on wOBA.

For those of you not familiar with the scale, 100 is average. Anything higher is above average and anything below 100 is below average.


http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/what-is-wrc/

So it's essentially a better version of base percentage + slugging percentage.
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Re: Offseason Thread 

Post#54 » by TTown » Thu Dec 12, 2013 3:06 am

i'd like to keep franklin unless we can bring back a serious prize via trade. i don't have a problem with letting him go, but i'd like to get something nice and shiny in return. if that's just not available, i'd like to maybe see hart spend some time @ 1B when we face a lefty, and have franklin dh. a utility role focused around 2B/SS/DH probably isn't ideal for someone as young as he is, but i think he's a talent and there's still a place on this team for him (again, if we're not wow'd by trade options). i know cano probably COULD play 160 games, but given our long term investment in him perhaps he shouldn't. i have a man crush on brad miller, but he needs rest, too. the at-bats should be there. and hell, injuries happen. smoak could finally crap out on us for good and hart might need to play A LOT of first. or whatever. franklin would be a hell of a guy to have around.

and i realize we have the human swiss army knife known as willie bloomquist, but... i guess years of watching bloomy's every move has made me wary.

love the corey hart deal. one reason i really liked kendrys was that outside of ichiro, he was the first guy to put on a seattle mariner uniform in a number of years who seemed like he knew what he was doing each time up at the plate. i think we've got that again with hart.

i'm going to be disappointed if we don't come away with choo. we have a lot of young guys who don't make a lot of scratch, we've got the potential steal of the FA market with hart, most of our rotation outside of felix doesn't make much... there's still money to play with. signing cano suggests we want to go all in, and what we've done thus far, while a nice start, does not constitute going all in. with colon off the market, i'd rather get choo than spend too much on that #2 starter everyone keeps talking about. i really like felix/kuma/walker/paxton. if the a's keep making the playoffs with a who's who of rookie starters, why can't we expect big things out of a pair of 'em, dang nabit? i wouldn't MIND bringing in someone to kick erasmo to long relief (or whatever), but if it's going to become an 'either/or' situation, c'mon. go get choo.
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Re: Offseason Thread 

Post#55 » by Sweezo » Fri Dec 13, 2013 1:27 am

Here's a nice little interview with our new manager, Lloyd McClendon. Nothing earth shattering, but I think he comes across well. He also added this little point which addresses a big pet peeve of mine:

On giving up outs: “Depending on the situation, the good old fashioned bunt still works, but only to a certain extent. I’m very reluctant to give up those outs. There are factors that come into play. Is the guy swinging the bat well at that particular time, or is he in a slump? Can having a productive out in this situation help him in his next five at bats? But I hate giving up outs.”


A manager can only do so much, but I like the little bits I've heard from McClendon. He seems personable, has a decent sense of humor, gives well thought out answers to questions, and doesn't just seem to regurgitate platitudes 24/7. He does at times--every true baseball man does--but I feel more confident in him than Wedge.
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Re: Offseason Thread 

Post#56 » by TTown » Fri Dec 13, 2013 1:31 am

as a big oregon baseball fan, i wish george horton would adopt a similar strategy. smallball has its place, but i cringe when he decides to sacrifice one of the few above average hitters in the program so that a kid hitting near the mendoza line can have a crack at the plate w/ a guy in scoring position.

</rant that few people will probably understand >
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Re: Offseason Thread 

Post#57 » by Sweezo » Fri Dec 13, 2013 1:58 am

TTown wrote:as a big oregon baseball fan, i wish george horton would adopt a similar strategy. smallball has its place, but i cringe when he decides to sacrifice one of the few above average hitters in the program so that a kid hitting near the mendoza line can have a crack at the plate w/ a guy in scoring position.

</rant that few people will probably understand >


When I went to Oregon we didn't even have a baseball team! You should be grateful!

</old person rant>

No, in all seriousness, it's a big deal. Another part of that McClendon interview that I really liked? His exposition about becoming a better hitter and learning the difference between working the count and trying to draw a walk.

You know who didn't seem to get that distinction?

That's not the reason Ackley was having issues at home plate. What I'm talking about is this recent generation of players that has come up in the sabermetrics world . . . What you can't do is play this game with fear. You have to go out there and play and when you get your first good pitch to take a whack at, you have to take a whack at it. People stress so much getting deeper into counts and drawing walks, it's almost a backward way of looking at it."


http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/mlb/news/20130604/dustin-ackley-eric-wedge-sabermetrics/

We have seen it too many times in the past four games. A Mariners hitter fouling a ball straight back, looking at strike one or worse yet strike three down the middle of the plate. It seems that too often they are missing or not even taking a swing at the best pitches to hit.

It is frustrating for Eric Wedge and the Mariners coaches. So frustrating that it kept them in the clubhouse until well past 1 a.m. Wednesday morning after their loss in 13 innings to the Orioles.

"There are points in time when we need to be more aggressive, there is no doubt," Wedge said when I asked if the hitters seemed reluctant to pull the trigger at the plate. "It's like we are looking for the perfect pitch to hit."


http://mynorthwest.com/?nid=374&sid=479592

Wedge preached aggression. A lot. The better tactic seems like a more measured approach. There's only so much a manager can do if there's a dearth of talent, but I'm intrigued.
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Re: Offseason Thread 

Post#58 » by TTown » Sat Dec 21, 2013 8:35 pm

choo to the rangers. damnit.

edit: trades are rather unpredictable, so looking at this from a FA perspective, i think i'm convinced re-signing kendrys is probably the way to go. i know he wants more than we want to pay him, but i think we're quickly going to enter panic mode, and i'd rather have kendrys back than, say, signing nelson cruz. am i wrong? i think kendrys would be a nice 1B platoon partner for smoak, and he can DH when smoak starts. hart will have to play some corner outfield, and DH when kendrys is at 1B. what else is out there?
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Re: Offseason Thread 

Post#59 » by Sweezo » Tue Dec 24, 2013 12:54 am

TTown wrote: trades are rather unpredictable, so looking at this from a FA perspective, i think i'm convinced re-signing kendrys is probably the way to go. i know he wants more than we want to pay him, but i think we're quickly going to enter panic mode, and i'd rather have kendrys back than, say, signing nelson cruz. am i wrong? i think kendrys would be a nice 1B platoon partner for smoak, and he can DH when smoak starts. hart will have to play some corner outfield, and DH when kendrys is at 1B. what else is out there?


Problem is I think we have too many 1B/DH types already. With Smoak, Morrison, and Hart already on the roster, I already feel like we're going to be playing someone in the OF who has no business being out there. I'd rather the M's find a trade partner who can provide us an OF and spend any remaining money under the budget on SP/RP options.
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Re: Offseason Thread 

Post#60 » by TTown » Fri Dec 27, 2013 12:29 am

tanaka, anyone? hopefully the seattle factor + playing with an old teammate (kuma) can sway him to pitch here. not sure we'll be the highest bid, but hopefully other things go into consideration.
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