Bulltalk wrote:We HAVE to make a big trade, Sweezo. There's no way around it.
Truer word were never spoken. With the M's flailing at the plate, everyone knows the M's need to make a move to bolster the offense IF they want to have a chance to compete for the AL West title this year.
[1] How much talent are we willing to give up?
[2] How much payroll can we take on in 2011?
[3] How much would such a move affect the payroll in 2012?
The M’s payroll for 2010 is $ 94,623,191. Per Shanon Drayer, it looks like that might be as high as the payroll can/will go this year. Compounding the problem is the $6 million in potential bonuses Bedard alone is facing. The team could stand pat for the rest of the season and easily go over $100 million in payroll based solely on paying bonuses out to unexpected success stories [Bedard, Kennedy, etc.]. I was trying to put together a detailed list of M's salaries for '10/'11, but someone already beat me to it
The Mariners have $59,513,000 guaranteed to players in 2012, most of which is owed to Ichiro Suzuki, Felix Hernandez, Chone Figgins, and Franklin Gutierrez. Miguel Olivo, Dustin Ackley, and Brendan Ryan are also guaranteed money from Seattle in 2012. They have a seven arbitration-eligible players: Jack Cust, David Aardsma, Jason Vargas, Brandon League, Luis Rodriguez, Aaron Laffey, and Shawn Kelley. We could see many of these players non-tendered. Jack Wilson, Chris Ray, Erik Bedard, Jamey Wright, and Adam Kennedy are their only free agents.
Just by having the Bradley and Silva expenses off their books, the Mariners should have a lot of payroll flexibility in 2012. Even after arbitration raises to the players they do end up keeping, they should have at least $10-$20 million to play with. Their best pre-arb players (Smoak, Pineda, Ackley) are at least a year away from arbitration-eligibility, so they don't have to worry about a significant first-time arbitration raise this year. For the past 4 years they've operated at about $80-$90 million. They could continue to do so, though they pick second overall in the upcoming June rule 4 draft, so perhaps they'll scale their 2012 payroll back a bit to compensate for the cost of signing their 2nd overall pick.
I've seen conflicting reports about whether Fister or isn't arbitration eligible, which is a big deal. If he's eligible, he'll be making millions instead of thousands next year.
So, who might we target this year? How would that affect our ability to go after a Prince Fielder type next year? Here's a list of names I've seen pop up in blogs so far:
Hunter Pence: A player I have a lot of interest in as a trade target if the Astros wish to move him, he beat the house in arbitration last year. His .315 /.356/.490 certainly tops his .282/.325/.461 line from last year. Pence's talent level you don't get him for free in a trade, nor would the Astros seem interested in taking on much salary, and he may cost you $9-$10 million in salary next season.
Carlos Beltran: Currently makes $20 million per year, and the Mets are in an absolute financial mess at the moment w/ a $143 million payroll. Putting up a .278/.372/.480 and seems as healthy as he's been in years. I find it doubtful the Mets would want to absorb much salary in a trade either.
Ryan Ludwick: Makes $6.8million this year, a FA next year. Put up a .257/.323/.405 this year despite playing in Petco half the year [his OPS is a fair amount higher on the road]. The Padres salary has hovered around $40 million the past couple years...they are one cheap ass organization.
Luke Scott: Makes $6.4 million this year, arbitration eligible next year. With a .237/.318/.433 line [and 9 HR] he would be a decent upgrade at DH. Can play in the field but his UZR numbers have been in the red the past three seasons.
Casey Blake: Makes $5.5 million this year [and a $1.25 million buyouy next season?]; Put up a line of .250/.338/.406. A decent veteran on a team desperate to shed salary; Definitely an upgrade over Figgins, but his line looks pretty similar to what Kennedy has been providing us [although Kennedy seems to be wearing down]. No team is in a worse financial situation than the Dodgers.
Vlad Guerrero: Makes $8 million this year, then he's a free agent. A clear rental who, with a .282/.314/.388 line [including 6 home runs] would be a modest improvement at DH. Can't play the field, age and injury risk.
