... and then the ChiSox came to town, and we stopped hitting

[Bulltalk]

Well the remainder of the baseball season seems to have boiled away to what draft pick we end up getting:

1) Houston 53-102
2) Minnesota 59-95
3) Baltimore 65-90
4) Mariners 66-89
5) Kansas City 68-88
5) San Diego 68-88
7) Pittsburgh 69-87
7) Chicago 69-87
9) Oakland 69-86
10) Colorado 70-85

Ideally, from what I've read of the scouting reports, it would be good to get the 3rd pick. There seems to be four real top prospects at the moment on paper, two pitchers and two position players. I certainly don't want to see them fall below the 4th pick. No sense in going on a little winning streak this inconsequentially late in the season.

[TTown]

Every sensible thought I have tells me to root against the M's the rest of the way to get one of those prized prospects next June, but there's just something about hitting the 70-win mark that I think might be soothing for the organization. We're 66-90, so we'll either have to win both remaining series or sweep one and take a game in another (hence, not sure we can do it) but I think finishing strong (we've won 3 of 4 already) and hitting 70 wins could be a nice springboard.

... insomuch that there's any semblance of season-to-season momentum.

[Sweezo]

Every sensible thought I have tells me to root against the M's the rest of the way to get one of those prized prospects next June, but there's just something about hitting the 70-win mark that I think might be soothing for the organization. We're 66-90, so we'll either have to win both remaining series or sweep one and take a game in another (hence, not sure we can do it) but I think finishing strong (we've won 3 of 4 already) and hitting 70 wins could be a nice springboard.

... insomuch that there's any semblance of season-to-season momentum.

Don't worry! With pitchers like Anthony Vasquez, you can root as hard as you want and still get better draft positioning.

While it's nice that Vasquez has been able to give the team a few innings to ease the workload for Pineda, he's been spectacularly awful. I don't think he's a candidate for the rotation next year.

[Bulltalk]

Mariners draft position update:

1) Houston 55-102
2) Minnesota 60-96
3) Mariners 66-91
3) Baltimore 66-91
5) San Diego 68-89
6) Kansas City 69-88

Like I said, at this late in the game, I want Jack Z to have another shot at one of the very top prospects in the draft next year. We've had two such high picks in the last three years, Ackley (picked #2 overall in the 2009 draft) and Hultzen (picked #2 overall in the 2011 draft).

Ackley already is a starter for us from here on out, and I believe an all-star player not far down the line, especially if he remains at 2nd base. It has been suggested that Hultzen will be invited to spring training to compete for a spot on the roster, though this remains to be seen. We are all hoping Hutzen to be our 3rd or 4th starter for the 2013 season, I think it's fair to say. If such a thing pans-out, then Z made good on such very high draft picks, even though I was a fan of taking Rendon over Hultzen at the time.

Obviously, I want Jack Z to have the best shot possible at drafting either the best pitching prospect, or the best hitting/position player prospect (preferable) (yes, I know that things only become clear over time). I think having the 3rd pick might give him the opportunity to do so. I am intrigued by Nick Williams (OF). But what do I know.

Note: It seems many of the very best prospects in next year's draft are HSers, not college players. So if we draft for talent, such a player may be a work-in-progress for some time, not help us out in the nearer term future.

Lastly, I hope this is the last year we are competing for one of the top 3 picks for some years to come. But if we are to be here one more time, let's make the best of it. Let's try to get 3 very good/star quality MLB players while we have this chance. Let's get that 3rd pick, and certainly no worse than the 4th pick.

[Sweezo]

Is there any consensus #1 pick this year? I spent a portion of my day looking around and I don't see a lot of agreement. And yes, HS players do seem to be in the mix for the top spots. HS players scare me a bit though...they're not going to contribute for a long time [if ever].

[Bulltalk]

Is there any consensus #1 pick this year? I spent a portion of my day looking around and I don't see a lot of agreement. And yes, HS players do seem to be in the mix for the top spots. HS players scare me a bit though...they're not going to contribute for a long time [if ever].

Not quite. Lance McCullers perhaps.

[TTown]

Felix ends his season 14-14 with a 3.47 era, his highest era since 2007. An odd year for Felix, who battled a historically poor offense last year and won the Cy Young; in 2011, with a better offense (at least in the second half) he had a sub-par follow up.

I'm entirely positive he'll come back year and be dominant again; just a very 'un-Felix' type year from the King.

[Bulltalk]

Draft pick update with 2 games left:

1) Houston 56-104
2) Minnesota 61-99
3) Mariners 67-93
4) Baltimore 68-92
5) San Diego 70-90
6) Chicago 70-90

We've locked no worse than the 4th pick in the draft. We're up a full game on Baltimore for the 3rd spot. If we should end with identical records, we would win the tiebreaker because the M's had a worse record than the Orioles last season. In other words, one more loss by us, or one more win by the Orioles and we clinch the 3rd pick.

[TTown]

On May 7, Justin Smoak was at his season high for AVG (.315) and OBP (.407), w/ 5 HRs.

By July 30, he had bottomed out with a .218 AVG and a .313 OBP. He had not hit a HR since June 12. He went on the DL a few days later, after long speculation that he was dealing with some sort of injury. He came back two weeks later, took a ground ball to the face, then missed the rest of August.

He came back from the DL on Sep 2. Since, he's 21/65 (.323) with a .400 OBP w/ 3 HRs.

Do you think the Justin Smoak we saw in the first and last months of the season is the Justin Smoak we can expect in 2012? He was bad more than he was good this year, but I really think there's something to the theory that he was struggling with pain; he went almost 7 weeks without going yard. Even when his AVG was slumping in Texas and with us in 2010, he could still knock the ball out of the park.

Thoughts? He tore it up to start the year, and he had Miguel Olivo and Jack Cust for protection. I'd love to see what he can do for a full year with Ackley batting ahead of him, and Carp behind.

Edit: Didn't really finish my thought. Anyhow, if management decides Smoak is the future at 1B and doesn't get in on the Prince Fielder sweepstakes, and with a lot of young pieces really coming through the back half of 2011, what do we spend money on? I'd love to shore up the bullpen, and while we're stocked with pitching in the system, I don't think much of it is really ready to shine to start 2012. Perhaps sign a starter on a 2-year deal to fight with Vargas, Furbush, and whoever else we might have at the 4/5 spots? I like Felix/Pineda/Beavan as a 1-2-3, myself.

[Bulltalk]

I think he also had a family death to deal with. No, I haven't given up on Smoak at all yet. But the fact remains, we need to go out into the market via trade or FAcy and land us two proven veteran hitters for next season. Hopefully one of them a prime time hitter like Prince Fielder. We cannot go into next season merely hoping the youngsters pan-out.

I like some of our young talent, but three out of the last four seasons we've stunk, and fan interest (profits too) have taken a big hit. We've got to stop the bleeding. We can't merely sit back thinking things will turn out for the best and not taking the bold and necessary measures that are called for now.

[Sweezo]

I think he also had a family death to deal with.

I think his dad died of cancer.

I like some of our young talent, but three out of the last four seasons we've stunk, and fan interest (profits too) have taken a big hit. We've got to stop the bleeding. We can't merely sit back thinking things will turn out for the best and not taking the bold and necessary measures that are called for now.

Agreed, but like TTown I don't know where to put the money. We've discussed Fielder to death, so we know about that option.

Upgrading the OF would be nice, but as much some fans may want to trade Ichiro that scenario is just not all that realistic, and I don't think it would be easy to replace Guti in CF. Watching Robinson fill in has been an adventure to say the least.

The free agent targets for left field are underwhelming. The top FA OF are probably Carlos Beltran [age 34] and Michael Cuddyer [age 32], both on the wrong side of 30 for this team IMO.

The M's made a lot of move to add some pieces of interest, and i imagine they'll be looking to move guys to fill holes. You know how the M's were rumored to be interested in players like Justin Upton last offseason? Well, I'd sure as **** be willing to give up anyone but Hultzen in our farm system for him right now [within reason, mind you]. I'd also be interesting in prying Logan Morrison away from the Marlins; I'm not sure why he's had his issues with the Marlins this year but I'd be more than happy to make a deal that puts him out in LF.

Prospects like Tyjuan Walker and James Paxton are very interesting, and as much as I'd like to see them with the M's in 2-3 years, maybe the team looks at moving them to fill holes now. Wouldn't be shocked if Seager's moved too...he hits well enough, but I think it's telling that the team's been playing him at 2B/SS/3B. He has versatility and that might play well on the trade market.

If the team is willing to trade pitching prospects for offensive help, may I make the suggestion that the team will look to use any financial flexibility to upgrade its pitching rotation? Felix/Pineda/Vargas are probably locks. Beavan's pitched well enough that he'd be OK as a #5 starter. Furbush...I'm not so sure. He's had his moments at home but has had some lousy games on the road. Vasquez is arguably the worst pitcher in baseball, and if he's in the starting rotation to start next season we've done something wrong.

There will be some top shelf pitching talent out there, like Sabathia and C.J. Wilson. I wonder if we might set our sights on other targets. Hisashi Iwakuma, who the A's posted $19 million for exclusive negotiating privileges in '10, will be an unrestricted FA. Edwin Jackson is a guy jack Z's liked before, so he might be on our list this year.

I'm not horribly interested in spending a lot to upgrade the bullpen; Guys like League, Lueke, Wilhelmsen, and Kelley have been good down the stretch. I think the team can add to that mix on the cheap and be happy.

[Bulltalk]

I want Fielder. That's for sure. Outside of that, I think we'll probably have to acquire some talent via trade. Like you said, I think we've got some prospects to pull such a thing off, and we have a high draft pick next year (3rd after tonight) to replenish some strong talent that we might have to give up.

We'll see what Z and the ownership/front office do. I DO need to see some aggression in upgrading our everyday lineup, however.

[Bulltalk]

Well we secured the #3 pick in the MLB draft next year. That's one bright spot in our losing ways. The #3 pick was the best we could do given that Houston and Minnesota weren't going to be caught by us.

Here are some future prognostications about the prospects and their slottings at present:

2012 MLB Draft Top Prospects

by Lincoln Hamilton and Steve Carter
August 31, 2011

Perhaps the single best thing about scouting is that it never stops. It forces one into a state of perpetual progressiveness. The Rule IV Draft, which we look forward to year-round, embodies that spirit as well as any MLB event.

August, shmogust. Who's ready for a quick, way-to-early look at what the 2012 draft class has to offer?

You're either here for that or to check out an online Canadian pharmacy...

There has been one prospect who stands head-and-shoulders above the competition heading into his draft year frequently in recent years. Anthony Rendon was that guy last year. Bryce Harper in 2010, Stephen Strasburg in 2009 and David Price in 2007. 2012 doesn't have that guy.

Deven Marrero, SS, Arizona State

The current top college position player is likely Arizona State shortstop Deven Marrero. Chris Marrero's cousin and a high school teammate of Eric Hosmer, Deven Marrero grades out as one of the better college infield prospects to come along in recent years.

Marrero isn't a true burner but he is an above-average runner -- he ran a 6.8 60-yard-dash in high school. His range plays up due to strong defensive instincts. An excellent all-around defender, he has a smooth, soft hands and a legit plus arm.

Marrero projects to hit for average in the pros. He's posted strong contact numbers for the Sun Devils (13.4% strikeout rate to date with ASU). Like many college players adjusting to the new bats, he struggled offensively last year, hitting just .319/.354/.444 after posting a .397/.442/.628 line as a true freshman. Marrero also doesn't walk much -- just 6.5% over the past two years.

His set up and lower body actions might need some work once he starts swinging wood bats. Beginning out almost knock-kneed with his weight in the middle of his body, Marrero toe-taps back but never quite fully loads his back leg. Since he never gets fully 'back', he can't help but transfer his weight to his front leg at stride, instead of letting the swing take care of that. He certainly has the hands to make this move work, but he's no Dustin Ackley. In the interest of consistent balance, he'll need to learn to how to stay behind his front leg longer.

Marrero doesn't have big time raw power, so balance and leverage are very important for him to become more than a guy who leaves a bunch of seam burns in the gaps. Standing 6-foot-1, 170 pounds Marrero doesn't offer a ton of physical projection but he shouldn't outgrow shortstop. He could top double digit home run totals if it all comes together, but of course, it has to come together first. A slight rise out of his crouch once he swings causes some head movement, and leaks most of what little leverage he has. Marrero aggressively engages his hands forward, which is what you want in a guy who's not up there to make people forget Mike Stanton's name – although he does have more power than Mike Stanton the lefty reliever. Sprinkle in some better leverage and more consistent balance, and Marrero could be a .300 hitter with solid pop for the position.

Lack of secondary offensive skills may keep him from being a superstar, but Marrero could be a well-above-average every day player and a borderline all star if everything breaks right. Given his positional value, and the fact that Jiovanni Mier has apparently been placed in the witness relocation program -- seriously, if you see him call the local authorities, we're all very worried -- Marrero could give Houston fans something to look forward to other than how well Mario Williams transitions to a nine technique outside linebacker in Wade Phillips' 3-4.

Lance McCullers Jr., RHP, Tampa Jesuit HS, FL

While projecting Deven Marrero as a top pick requires belief in his offensive progression next season, high school pitcher Lance McCullers Jr. will be a high pick as long as his right arm stays attached to his body. Guys with McCullers' arm strength are rare. Guys with McCullers' arm strength at his age are like finding a bad moment in Breaking Bad rare. McCullers was already flirting with high-90's velocity before he could legally drive by himself. His fastball sits 95-97 MPH, having touched 99-100 MPH with movement -- oh, the movement. McCullers gets ridiculous action on his fastballs and has shown the ability to cut the ball inside and outside. As great as McCullers' fastball is, his breaking ball isn't far behind. Coming in at slider speed (81-85 MPH) it has late 12-6 curveball type break. It's unfair against high school hitters, and would likely retire it's fair share of big leaguers right now. As if that weren't enough, McCullers has also shown excellent feel for a changeup.

McCullers' arm action has some length thanks to a huge degree of scapular loading present in the pick-up phase of his delivery. It is a little atypical, think Daniel Hudson except from a 3/4 arm angle, but not necessarily a bad thing. He appears to have pretty good timing, strong hip rotation, and keeps his front side closed pretty well. He throws with some effort, which again isn't always a bad thing. There will be some who want to knock McCullers' mechanics but, unless we see something different in the future, we won't be among them.

His command isn't great, but that's often the last thing to develop with young arms who throw hard and have movement. McCullers' has a special, special arm and as long as we keep him away from hiking trips with James Franco he should be selected very high next June.

Nick Williams, OF, Galveston Ball HS, TX

The summer showcase circuit is a great way to get your name out there, and Nick Williams is one player that benefited greatly from the 2011 version. It seemed that all anyone could talk about was Nick Williams this, Nick Williams that...he looks like he's just swinging a wiffle ball bat. From finishing second to the almighty Daniel Vogelbach in the 5th annual Power Showcase home run derby to putting on a hitting display at the Tournament of Stars that would make Willie Mays Hayes blush, all Williams did was impress.

Williams features a compact swing with a plane conducive to covering the outer half well but has quick enough hands to still burn on the inner-half. Williams has plus power and a good amount of loft in his swing. You could make a good argument as to what is more projectable, Williams' body or his swing. Currently, he keeps his front side closed longer than needed, and doesn't open up into contact as much as he could, though he can occasionally get caught in between and pull off with his front side. In time, he could learn how to clear his front side to let his back side fully drive through, which, not coincidentally, is when things would get really entertaining. Clearing his hands from 'hiding' behind his front shoulder might help him get even quicker on the inner half as well. Oh, did we mention he's 6-foot-3' 190 pounds and has room to add 20 pounds without forcing himself to re-learn how to run with the additional weight? Williams is a plus runner with at least an average arm. He has current strength and figures to add plenty more. If you see anyone laying any Griffey comps on this kid, go ahead and laugh them out of the room. However, calling Williams a 'tool shed' certainly won't get you laughed at. Factual statements have a tendency to get treated with respect.

Kenny Diekroeger, SS, Stanford

Stanford shortstop Kenny Diekroeger can be a frustrating player to evaluate. The good is that he has a compact and hand-oriented swing that's very short to the ball. He has a smooth trigger and has the hand strength required to make a hands dominant swing work. However, Diekroeger doesn't get anywhere near the bat speed he could out of his swing, nor does he maintain optimum angles through the zone. Diekroeger has similar hand rhythm actions to Jason Bay, but also has a pull side dominant plane like Bay. Diekroeger's hand rhythm helps pull his front shoulder back to an angle that usually is conducive to hammering the pitch away, but he doesn't maintain that plane when he launches. His strong hands should allow him to still be quick inside yet still cover away with the angle of hip-shoulder separation he achieves, but due to a heavy rolling top hand, Diekroger pulls his barrel off the pitch away and consistently into a pull dominant plane.

Clearing his hands from his body and developing a more timing based hand rhythm could help Diekroeger maintain better angles through the zone. An added benefit could be more bat speed, since a good timing based hand load does a much better job of stretching the core during the separation phase of the swing.

*Quick biomechanics lesson - a stretched core produces elastic energy, and elastic energy is key for easy power to come out of the swing sequence*

Diekroeger has a decent chance to stick up the middle, so power wouldn't be a requirement. At the same time, when a player seems to be leaving a good chunk of his offensive potential on the table, it makes you wonder what adjustments will come, if ever. At 6-foot-2' 200 pounds, Diekroeger has the frame to have solid-average or better pop for the position, but he didn't adjust to the new BBCOR bats in 2011, posting only two home runs.

While his swing is a somewhat unorthodox, Diekroeger has gotten away with it due to his best attribute: athleticism. Diekroeger is a sterling all-around athlete with quick-twitch ability for days. He lead the pack at the 2008 Area Code Games in the SPARQ test, an objective measure of athletic ability featuring tests that remind you of the NFL combine. Some guy named Mike Trout finished second, and from what we/ve seen he's a pretty good athlete. Diekroeger has the athleticism to play anywhere on the diamond. His actions at short have gotten smoother over the past year. He isn't as natural as Marrero, but has a higher ceiling defensively.

Diekroger is smart (4.0 GPA at Stanford), athletic and has a world of potential. But much like eating a small panini, you seem to be left wanting more when watching him.

Kevin Gausman, RHP, Louisiana State University

Righthander Kevin Gausman slipped to the Dodgers in the sixth round of the 2010 MLB Draft yet went unsigned after demanding first-round money -- the Dodgers with unable to sign someone you say? Gausman matriculated to LSU where he was quickly ensconced in the Tigers weekend rotation, striking out nearly a batter an inning (86 K in 89 IP). The lanky freshman impressed with stuff as much, or more than, results. While his velocity dipped as a senior in high school, Gausman's fastball works in the mid-90's and has touched 99 MPH in short bursts with excellent movement at its best. He also showed solid improvement in his breaking ball and changeup during his first year on the Bayou. His curveball has shown enough to now project as a potential above-average offering, a bit more if you're feeling generous, and his change could develop into a solid-average offering. While his off-speed stuff still needs some work, Gausman is far from a one-pitch wonder and ought to have enough weapons to start.

The epitome of a 'live-loose-arm', the first thing that jumped out about Gausman was arm strength generated from a very sound motion. That motion has been tweaked over the past year. Gausman's arm action is a bit different. His first movement after he takes the ball out of his glove is down to his hip then straight up to a very high arm angle. Gasuman keeps his weight back very late into his stride and hS excellent hip rotation, but this new arm action has resulted in what looks like slightly worse timing than in the past.

Gausman has been a pet cat of mine (Lincoln) ever since I first saw him on the summer showcase tour. He's a different pitcher now than when I first saw, but most of the difference is improvement. I'm taking personal credit whenever Gausman makes his first all star team. I called it. You all saw.

Lucas Giolito, RHP, Harvard Westlake HS, CA

If Lance McCullers isn't your cup of tea, not sure why he wouldn't be, the high school pitching class also boasts Lucas Giolito whose scouting report is every so tasty. A righthander from California power house Harvard Westlake High School, Giolito is built like NBA shooting guard at 6-foot-7, 215 pounds with arms seldom found outside of Jay Bilas' dreams. Those arms aren't just long, they're powerful. Giolito's best asset is his tremendous arm strength, leading the 2010 Area Code Games with a 95.8 MPH average on his top 10 fastballs. That's right, the 2010 Area Code Games, when Giolito had just finished his sophomore year and was younger than most of his competitors. He complements his fastball with a 75-79 MPH curve that will flash plus.

Giolito has an uncommonly smooth motion for a pitcher with his youth, size, and arm strength. There aren’t many high school pitchers we look at and see teaching points in, but Lucas Giolito has virtually ideal timing in his delivery – a huge, huge deal. You think of pitchers with big arm circles pulling their elbows up high, bending and contorting their bodies in all sorts of silly directions. Everything a pitcher does with his mechanics, good or bad, is for naught if ball isn’t in the driveline as the shoulders start to rotate. There’s only one place a pitcher needs to bring the ball to, which is in a position to be accelerated towards home-plate. A bullet doesn’t do any good until it’s in the barrel. Giolito does this very, very well. He makes throwing hard look easy.

Others

Going off the crazy notion that our readers don't want a 35,000 word column, we can't cover everyone who deserves attention in this one article. But that's what the future's for boys! Would you like to read about Trey Williams? A big kid, strong body, with swaggerific actions. Of course you would! Could we interest you in a small bit on Stryker Trahan and his awesomeness? You bet the first-place prize you're gonna win in your dynasty league if you keep reading! Well stay tuned my friend, this is just the tip of the iceberg. An iceberg filled with baseballs and sandwiches frozen solid by our wit.

Round 1

1 Houston Mark Appel RHP Stanford 6' 5" 190
2 Minnesota Lucas Giolito RHP Harvard-Westlake School (CA) 6' 6" 220
3 Seattle Lance McCullers RHP United States 6' 2" 195
4 Baltimore Deven Marrero SS Arizona State 6' 1" 172
5 San Diego Michael Wacha RHP Texas A&M 6' 6"
6 Chi Cubs Nick Williams OF Ball High School (TX )6' 3" 195
7 Florida Mike Zunino C Florida 6' 2" 215
8 Kansas City Gavin Cecchini SS United States 6' 1" 180
9 Pittsburgh Victor Roache 1B Georgia Southern
10 Colorado Joey Gallo 3rd Bishop Gorman High School (NV) 6' 5" 205

[bennith13]

Personally I want Nick Williams. We need a good OF prospect.

[Sweezo]

Hard as hell to project who's worth anything on that list though. At least with the NFL draft, I've seen many of the prospects play at some point. Not that I have a scouting eye worth anything to back up my opinions, mind you, but with the MLB draft...I've seen nothing. Even when I wanted Rendon last year, I'd never seen him actually play.

Projecting HS baseball players seems nearly impossible to me. College players I understand, but HS not so much.

[TTown]

sigh

I want to be in the playoffs. It's been 10 freaking years.

[TTown]

I've decided that we should really go balls out for Fielder. I've been mulling over whether or not that contract would be worth it, but I really do like our pieces elsewhere. Stick Smoak at DH, Carp in LF, let Wells be the 4th OF to start the season, let Trayvon rack up ABs in Tacoma, bring him up midseason, and let him take over for Ichiro in RF after 2012.

If Seager or Liddi can produce at 3B, we'd have Major League-caliber hitters at every spot (which we haven't been able to say in quite some time). Still not sold that we'd be AL West contenders in 2012, but I think we would be in 2013 when Hultzen and Paxton come up.

[Sweezo]

I've decided that we should really go balls out for Fielder. I've been mulling over whether or not that contract would be worth it, but I really do like our pieces elsewhere. Stick Smoak at DH, Carp in LF, let Wells be the 4th OF to start the season, let Trayvon rack up ABs in Tacoma, bring him up midseason, and let him take over for Ichiro in RF after 2012.

if it comes to that, I think they'd be better off making a trade to fill the LF spot. Carp's bat is great but his defense in the OF is just not good.

Still, let's say you have a lineup that looks like this:

1. Ichiro
2. Ackley
3. Fielder
4. Carp
5. Smoak
6. Seager
7. Olivo
8. Guti
9. Ryan

There's some things I like about that lineup offensively, and some things I don't. Ichiro had a bad year but I have every expectation he will be given a chance to show he's still an effective player.

Catcher is still a black hole, and I don't think there's anything we can do about that in free agency. Probably the best available player with the best OPS this year is Ryan Doumit, but that's another whole set of problems.

[TTown]

I don't disagree re: Carp in LF, it's just that I'm so over averaging 2.3 runs a game (or whatever) a season I'm willing to sacrifice a little D at one spot to get a productive bat in the lineup. I consider it the Raul Ibanez effect.

Also agreed re: Olivo... though I was somewhat pleasantly surprised by his power.

[Sweezo]

I don't disagree re: Carp in LF, it's just that I'm so over averaging 2.3 runs a game (or whatever) a season I'm willing to sacrifice a little D at one spot to get a productive bat in the lineup. I consider it the Raul Ibanez effect.

Which is exactly what I am afraid of.

In '09, Ibanez hit .291/.351/.480 with 21 home runs. And his WAR was .9 because his defense was absolutely horrible.

In '11, Carp hit .276.326/.466 with 12 home runs in just about half the at bats Ibanez had in '09. And his WAR was only .5...despite many of his games being played at 1B and DH.

That is about what I would expect Carp to be in the OF over a full season. The guy is a heck of a hitter but our starting rotation ends up looking like what we had at the end of the year, half of our rotation will need as much help in the field as they can get. Carp's good but not such an extreme power hitter that I think his offense puts aside any thought of his defensive issues.

Keep in mind Casper Wells' WAR this season was 1.5. Defense can make a huge difference.