Spring Training Thread

[Sweezo]

Yes, I know it's a couple weeks away still, but it's coming up and I don't expect the roster to change too much between now and Spring Training. The media sessions with Wedge/Jack Z have turned up some interesting stuff:

[1] Wedge seems pretty clear that Ichiro isn't hitting leadoff.

[2] Figgins is being looked at as a super-utlity guy who will probably get his at-bats. That seems to leave 3B open to whomever wants it. Figgins has experience playing 3B, 2B, and CF so that’s not a bad idea since…well, we are quite clearly stuck with him.

[3] Montero's probably going to get his at-bats at both catcher and DH. It is completely unclear to me what the timeshare between Montero/Olivo/Jaso is going to look like.

So what's our lineup going to look like? I don’t know but if I had my druthers it may look something like this. I’m including each player’s career splits, some have decent sample sizes and others clearly not, just to give some frame of reference.

VS RHP

1. Figgins [3B]: .289/.360/.379
2. Ichiro [RF]: .322/.368/.420
3. Ackley [2B]: .290/.369/.435
4. Smoak [1B]: .226/.322/.394
5. Montero [C]: .216/.310/.568
6. Carp [DH]: .266/.332/.427
7. Wells [LF]: .264/.326/.485
8. Guti [CF]: .246/.294/.354
9. Ryan [SS]: .252/.303/.341

VS LHP


1. Figgins [3B]: .261/.334/.344
2. Ichiro [RF]: .335/.376/.424
3. Ackley [2B]: .224/.287/.365
4. Smoak [1B]: .252/.326/.394
5. Montero [DH]: .500/.556/.625
6. Carp [LF]: .295/.340/.500
7. Jaso [C]: .233/.295/.367
8. Guti [CF]: .282/.343/.454
9. Ryan [SS]: .264/.332/.335

WHY? Well, a few things. First, I am giving Figgins a shot at leading off and getting alot of playing time. Because...why not? We're on the hook for 2 years/$17 million for him, and if there was any trade market for him he'd probably be gone by now. Figgins' has made comments before that he's more comfortable batting leadoff, and while that's like some sad excuse for his failures the last couple years, what do we have to lose? If it doesn't work, the team isn't likely to compete anyway, and there's no reason the team couldn't bump Ackley up after 6 weeks or so if a change is needed.

Ichiro seems a better fit for me at #2 than #3. The lack of power won't help with driving in runs, so put him in a spot where his ability to make contact might help put the game in motion. Ichiro can certainly place a ball between 2B/1B well enough. He doesn't take pitches like a #2 hitter typically does, but his other skills seem like a good fit. I don't think Ichiro's done, nor do I think he's a lock for .330...he's probably somewhere in the middle, and I hope he demonstrates that.

I expect Smoak to hit. He has the talent, he's in better shape, and he's healthy. He was looking like a middle of the order presence early last year. After his dad died in late April, things went downhill for him. There might be a decent chance Guti bounces back too, again due to prior injury issues. Everyone noticed his power escaped him last season even when he was healthy, and all indications are he's back at full strength after two seasons of not being 100%.

It's early for Montero, and I don't expect him to come out and hit immediately or all season long. Attempting to become an MLB catcher while turning into a middle of the order hitter is a lot to ask of a 22 year old.

Olivo's absent in my list because I think playing him is a waste of time. His approach at the plate is terrible, and his random displays of power aren't all that impressive at Safeco. His salary isn't terrible, and he could provide some value to another team. Worried about how a trio of Montero/Jaso/Moore would do on offense on defense? I'm not, because we've watched Olivo/R. Johnson/J. Bard the last couple years and they have provided us much of anything anyway.

The offense looks like it has a chance to approach something close to average, but the loss on defense in LF [Carp] combined with the loss in the rotation [Fister, Pineda] really makes me wonder if it's all going to be a wash. But in the end...the offensive improvement is probably all that matters. The rotation just needs to buy time for Hultzen/Paxton/Walker to come up.

How will 2013 look if Hultzen/Paxton are in the rotation and Walker looks he might be a midseason callup? How will the offseason look with Ichiro's contract off the books? Do the M's use the money they haven't spent this offseason to pay for Figgins' last year and leave the team with?

What could Jack Z do with $40 million in an offseason next offseason? Maybe you give Mike Napoli $20 million per year and let he and Montero trade off at C/DH. Or bring in David Wright to provide a veteran presence at 3B. Or bring in Victorino/Bourn/Ethier to replace Ichiro. Drawing free agents like Fielder to Seattle hasn't worked, but maybe it will if we have the money and show we have a core worth building around.

What does anyone else think?

[TTown]

good post. love that spring training is rolling around soon.

1. i've been a proponent of moving ichiro down in the order for awhile. we did it for a brief stint several years ago, but i always assumed ichiro had certain demands about leading off. but he was quoted a couple days back saying he didn't care where he hit. so, great news, imo. when an offense is as historically bad as ours has been the last couple years, you've got to try everything.

2. i guess i'm okay with giving figgins one more shot, but if he struggles in april i want him pulled and seager/liddi getting most of the time at 3B. my patience with him is almost non-existent, but i do think there's something to be said for the mental aspect of the game of where you're most comfortable in the order. he was certainly a great lead off hitter in anaheim.

3. i don't know much about john jaso. he seems well thought off, but i guess if push comes to shove i'd prefer 2011 olivo over 2011 jaso from a purely statistical standpoint. i know olivo is allergic to walking, but i do like the power. that said, jaso's 2010 season reads pretty good -- .263/.373/.750. honestly, though, i'm just going off numbers. i don't like olivo, at all. i would love for jaso to come in and steal any ABs not going to montero.

i really like that 3-6 of ackley, smoak, montero, and carp. if guti can be 2009 guti again and hit 18-20 home runs/hit .280, fan-freakin'-tastic on top of our first legitimate middle of the order in quite some time. i've always thought i liked carp more than some, and i'm not as worried about his defense. all of our other defenders around him have such great range. if montero can catch against righties, the time carp spends in the outfield will likely be limited, too.

[TTown]

hey, carlos guillen is back.

[Sweezo]

hey, carlos guillen is back.

Probably about 5 years too late.

If he's healthy I wonder if he could grab the starting 3B job. His '11 season was terrible, but he's not that far removed from being an effective player. Being 36 years old isn't especially conducive to a comeback season, but he could probably fill the Adam Kennedy bench bat role well enough if nothing else.

In reading about the signing on The Hot Stone League, I see Larry Stone does his best to make M's fans relive some painful memories by portraying the trade of Carlos Guillen as the beginning of the 'end' of the M's, along with the following 10 bad deals Bavasi made:

1) Bypassing Troy Tulowitzki with the No. 3 overall pick in 2005 to take USC catcher Jeff Clement. Just thinking of what Tulowitzki would have meant to the Mariners' offense is enough to make a Mariners fan weep.

2) Signing Carlos Silva to a four-year, $48-million contract prior to the 2008 season. Hey, but the good news is they got Milton Bradley out of the deal.

3) Bypassing Tim Lincecum to draft Brandon Morrow with the fifth pick of the 2006 draft. Yeah, Morrow netted Brandon League -- but Lincecum is Lincecum.

4) Trading Asdrubal Cabrera to the Indians for Eduardo Perez in June of 2006. I thought this was a good move at the time. I was wrong, big-time.

5) Trading Shin-Soo Choo to the Indians for Ben Broussard in July of 2006. See above.

6) Trading Guillen to the Tigers in 2004. The fact that this stinker deal only ranks sixth worst should tell you something.

7) Trading Rafael Soriano to the Braves for Horacio Ramirez after the 2007 season. Soriano has been a bullpen stud ever since. Ramirez was bad in 2007 and has faded to obscurity.

8) Trading Adam Jones, et al, to the Orioles for Erik Bedard prior to the 2008 season. This one hasn't been quite the disaster it appeared headed to be, mainly because Chris Tillman has, so far, been a bust. But Bedard was not nearly the pitcher the Mariners hoped, and Adam Jones has been good and may be poised for greatness.

9) Trading Matt Thornton to the White Sox for Joe Borchard prior to the 2006 season. The idea was to deal one high draft bust for another, hoping a change of scenery might do them good. It worked -- for Thornton.

10) Signing Spiezio to a three-year, $9 million contract. He was a unique combination of miserable performer and clubhouse mope.

As much as it sucks to see teams pass us by in our own division, it's amazing how many bad things happened before Jack Z came on board. If Bavasi had done nothing as a GM--and I mean NOTHING--in terms of signing players, and simply drafted based on what any mock draft on the internet said was the best available talent...think of how much better this team would be. If he'd laid off the free agent market completely

How much better would things be for Jack Z when he took over a couple years ago with Tulo at SS, Adam Jones in CF, Matt Thornton and Rafael Soriano in the bullpen, Shin-Soo Choo in RF, etc.?

Watching the '12 M's is often going to be frustrating, but it pales in comparison to the frustration I feel when reading that list of Bavasi's worst accomplishments.

[TTown]

the tulowitzki/clement debacle is the singular reason i approved of taking hultzen over rendon last june. you never, ever draft for need in the mlb draft -- when you do, you end up with jeff clement. always go best player available. always. if our organization felt hultzen was going to be better than rendon, then it's a good move IMO.

[TTown]

we signed Hong-Chih Kuo.

he was outstanding with the dodgers from 2008-2010. in 2010, in fact, he made 56 appearances (60 innings) and had 73 k's with a 1.20 era.

then last year he apparently developed anxiety attacks and completely fell off the map. 40 appearances, 27 IP, and 27 earned runs. that'll get you a 9.00 era.

i imagine we signed him for fairly cheap. i haven't seen any figures yet. if we get the old kuo, fantastic. he could be a real weapon out of the 'pen.

[Sweezo]

we signed Hong-Chih Kuo.

he was outstanding with the dodgers from 2008-2010. in 2010, in fact, he made 56 appearances (60 innings) and had 73 k's with a 1.20 era.

then last year he apparently developed anxiety attacks and completely fell off the map. 40 appearances, 27 IP, and 27 earned runs. that'll get you a 9.00 era.

i imagine we signed him for fairly cheap. i haven't seen any figures yet. if we get the old kuo, fantastic. he could be a real weapon out of the 'pen.

We also signed Shawn Camp, who also was pretty solid until last year.

So that means our bullpen has names like Brandon League, Shawn Kelley, Hong-Chih Kuo, George Sherrill, Chace Ruffin, Tom Wilhelmsen, Shawn Camp, and then a couple potential long relievers [Furbush, Beavan, Heilman]. Not a dominant bullpen but a potentially cheap and effective one.

I think Camp, Sherrill, and Kuo are are all specialists at this point their careers. We might see a lot of trips to the mound this year.

[Bulltalk]

Shyt. I haven't had time to post a lick. One of these days...

[Slats]

Figlet the new leadoff hitter??

[Sweezo]

Figlet the new leadoff hitter??

Seems odd on the surface, but I think they have nothing to lose. He's a sunk cost that probably would be off the roster if someone would've been willing to take him off our hands. If he doesn't work out, Seager's waiting in the wings to takeover. Might as well see if Figgins can bring the gap until Catricala/Liddi/Martinez is ready to take over.

[TTown]

""It would be great to go back to leadoff and do that again," Figgins said. "If not, I have to change my mindset as a '2' hitter. I haven't really changed my mindset to be a '2' hitter."

god, i hate chone figgins. what an irritating quote.

i'll give him april. if he's not producing, we need to outright cut him. my problem with this little switcheroo -- the figgins part, i've thought ichiro has needed to move to the 3-hole for years -- is that figgins is 34. yes, pouting and being a giant douche about moving out of the leadoff spot might hurt one's production, but you know what else might cause a player to start slowing down? being on the wrong side of 30. it's the same reason i didn't want to touch jose reyes this offseason. players who build their games on speed are not worth big deals after 30, with rare exceptions (obviously ichiro has been one). figgin's bat looks slow. he started to slow down at the end of his time in anaheim, and it's carried over to seattle. i just don't think moving to the leadoff spot is going to cure him. i think his problem is physical as much as it is mental.

i really like seager. i would have no problem having he and liddi battling over 3B. alas.

[TTown]

wedge says olivo will be the regular catcher, but they want to get montero 30-40 starts behind the plate.

3B figgs
2B ackley
RF ichiro
1B smoak
DH montero
LF carp
CF guti
C olivo
SS ryan

lot of "ifs", obviously, but if figgins doesn't blow, and if montero makes strides towards being the player the scouts think he will be, and if carp can handle left field defensively on days where montero is dh'ing, and if guti is 100% ... that's not a terrible lineup. it's not the '27 yankees, but over the past 5-7 years it seems like we've always had at least two or three total black holes in the lineup. if the figgins experiment actually works, olivo is the closest thing to an easy out we have as he'll swing at everything... but even then he has his moments. and it's not like we have to bat him 4th anymore.

[Sweezo]

i'll give him april. if he's not producing, we need to outright cut him. my problem with this little switcheroo -- the figgins part, i've thought ichiro has needed to move to the 3-hole for years -- is that figgins is 34. yes, pouting and being a giant douche about moving out of the leadoff spot might hurt one's production, but you know what else might cause a player to start slowing down? being on the wrong side of 30. it's the same reason i didn't want to touch jose reyes this offseason. players who build their games on speed are not worth big deals after 30, with rare exceptions (obviously ichiro has been one). figgin's bat looks slow. he started to slow down at the end of his time in anaheim, and it's carried over to seattle. i just don't think moving to the leadoff spot is going to cure him. i think his problem is physical as much as it is mental.

I'm about to defend Figgins [kind of], and I don't feel great about it...

Figgins' game was at his peak when he flashed speed in order to take extra bases, but his biggest attribute is his use of the strike zone. His career OBP is .350, a number not that far removed from Ichiro's career .370 mark.

If Figgins matches his career OBP and doesn't steal one base for the M's, he'd be an upgrade over what we had last year. Can Figgins get back to being a patient hitter?

[Sweezo]

So now that we have three spring training games under our belts, what's happened so far?

[1] Kyle Seager's 4-6 so far with a HR and a couple RBI. Figgins' has a walk. I know the 3B position isn't really a competition at the moment, but as much as the M's might want to have Figgins be their leadoff hitter...what the hell happens if he stinks it up during Spring Training and Seager hits? Sure, ST stats aren't all that meaningful but...how much patience will they have with Figgins?

[2] Noesi had some control issues but was hitting 97 MPH on the gun yesterday and sitting in the mid-90's on average. Is this real or just a favorable radar gun?

[3] Montero's indeed hitting with power, and so far most of the at bats for the catchers have gone to Montero and Jaso.

[4] If you count the intra-squad games, Saunders has been hitting the ball pretty hard. Does he managed to surprise everyone and come out of camp the replacement for Guti?

[TTown]

seager > figgs.

carlos guillen retires.

[Bulltalk]

We've actually got promise as a team and a franchise now. I'm okay with not getting Fielder, and I was always fine with the Montero trade. We needed hitting. We got someone whom I think might turn out to be one of the most dangerous hitters in the league in a few year's time.

Smoak is so key this year. If he hits well, we have a chance to take a big leap forward in team hitting this year. I think we'll muddle-through on our pitching if Wedge provides a sure-touch between his starters and his bullpen.

Yes, Seager just seems like a baller. He's one of those guys I could see hitting between .280-.300 if you played him. I mean like this year. He seems like one of those guys who can figure it out, make the most out of his talent.

Anyway...feeling good about the M's. Just hope we can remain close in April and May, that we don't get off to an unfortunate start this season.

[Sweezo]

We've actually got promise as a team and a franchise now. I'm okay with not getting Fielder, and I was always fine with the Montero trade. We needed hitting. We got someone whom I think might turn out to be one of the most dangerous hitters in the league in a few year's time.

Pretty much. He hits the ball with authority.

The question is...can he catch? Olivo is just terrible, and I don't care how much spring training does or doesn't mean but nothing Olivo's done has convinced me that the team would see a dip in production in any facet of the game if Montero split catching duties with Jaso/Moore.

BTW has anyone read how Pineda's doing? The NY press has already slagged him for being 'fat' and suggesting he's injured. They don't deserve nice things.

Smoak is so key this year. If he hits well, we have a chance to take a big leap forward in team hitting this year. I think we'll muddle-through on our pitching if Wedge provides a sure-touch between his starters and his bullpen.

Speaking of bouncing back, I am suddenly very interested in the fate of Michael Saunders. He's a forgotten man, but the stories and interviews coming out indicate a level of confidence that we've never seen from him at this level. So often when he struggled he would start to press and fail miserably. Is that what was missing?

Today he had two solid basehits and a nice play in the field. That's all he needs to do. Flash an ability to get on base a bit, hit with a little power, and excel defensively.

Yes, Seager just seems like a baller. He's one of those guys I could see hitting between .280-.300 if you played him. I mean like this year. He seems like one of those guys who can figure it out, make the most out of his talent.

I'd like Seager better as a utility guy than a starting 3B [with the hope that someone like Martinez or Liddi steps up to claim 3B in the future] simply because it's often a power position, but I want Seager to get plenty of at bats.

I don't like Figgins, but I do like that he is working at bats and getting on base even if he's not hitting the ball all over the park at the moment. If he can have a productive season, I still have hope we can move him at the break if the team is out of playoff contention, then turn the position over to Seager.

I don't harbor any aspirations of playoff baseball, but I have hope in progress. There's a lot of guys on the roster who have talent and can produce. It'll be an interesting season.

[TTown]

adam moore breaks his wrist.

poor guy. can't catch a break.

[Bulltalk]

BTW has anyone read how Pineda's doing? The NY press has already slagged him for being 'fat' and suggesting he's injured. They don't deserve nice things.

Made me laugh.

[nuke the whales]

David Pauley got released