Sweezo wrote:Yes, I know it's a couple weeks away still, but it's coming up and I don't expect the roster to change too much between now and Spring Training. The media sessions with Wedge/Jack Z have turned up some interesting stuff:
[1] Wedge seems pretty clear that Ichiro isn't hitting leadoff.
[2] Figgins is being looked at as a super-utlity guy who will probably get his at-bats. That seems to leave 3B open to whomever wants it. Figgins has experience playing 3B, 2B, and CF so that’s not a bad idea since…well, we are quite clearly stuck with him.
[3] Montero's probably going to get his at-bats at both catcher and DH. It is completely unclear to me what the timeshare between Montero/Olivo/Jaso is going to look like.
So what's our lineup going to look like? I don’t know but if I had my druthers it may look something like this. I’m including each player’s career splits, some have decent sample sizes and others clearly not, just to give some frame of reference.
VS RHP
1. Figgins [3B]: .289/.360/.379
2. Ichiro [RF]: .322/.368/.420
3. Ackley [2B]: .290/.369/.435
4. Smoak [1B]: .226/.322/.394
5. Montero [C]: .216/.310/.568
6. Carp [DH]: .266/.332/.427
7. Wells [LF]: .264/.326/.485
8. Guti [CF]: .246/.294/.354
9. Ryan [SS]: .252/.303/.341
VS LHP
1. Figgins [3B]: .261/.334/.344
2. Ichiro [RF]: .335/.376/.424
3. Ackley [2B]: .224/.287/.365
4. Smoak [1B]: .252/.326/.394
5. Montero [DH]: .500/.556/.625
6. Carp [LF]: .295/.340/.500
7. Jaso [C]: .233/.295/.367
8. Guti [CF]: .282/.343/.454
9. Ryan [SS]: .264/.332/.335
WHY? Well, a few things. First, I am giving Figgins a shot at leading off and getting alot of playing time. Because...why not? We're on the hook for 2 years/$17 million for him, and if there was any trade market for him he'd probably be gone by now. Figgins' has made comments before that he's more comfortable batting leadoff, and while that's like some sad excuse for his failures the last couple years, what do we have to lose? If it doesn't work, the team isn't likely to compete anyway, and there's no reason the team couldn't bump Ackley up after 6 weeks or so if a change is needed.
Ichiro seems a better fit for me at #2 than #3. The lack of power won't help with driving in runs, so put him in a spot where his ability to make contact might help put the game in motion. Ichiro can certainly place a ball between 2B/1B well enough. He doesn't take pitches like a #2 hitter typically does, but his other skills seem like a good fit. I don't think Ichiro's done, nor do I think he's a lock for .330...he's probably somewhere in the middle, and I hope he demonstrates that.
I expect Smoak to hit. He has the talent, he's in better shape, and he's healthy. He was looking like a middle of the order presence early last year. After his dad died in late April, things went downhill for him. There might be a decent chance Guti bounces back too, again due to prior injury issues. Everyone noticed his power escaped him last season even when he was healthy, and all indications are he's back at full strength after two seasons of not being 100%.
It's early for Montero, and I don't expect him to come out and hit immediately or all season long. Attempting to become an MLB catcher while turning into a middle of the order hitter is a lot to ask of a 22 year old.
Olivo's absent in my list because I think playing him is a waste of time. His approach at the plate is terrible, and his random displays of power aren't all that impressive at Safeco. His salary isn't terrible, and he could provide some value to another team. Worried about how a trio of Montero/Jaso/Moore would do on offense on defense? I'm not, because we've watched Olivo/R. Johnson/J. Bard the last couple years and they have provided us much of anything anyway.
The offense looks like it has a chance to approach something close to average, but the loss on defense in LF [Carp] combined with the loss in the rotation [Fister, Pineda] really makes me wonder if it's all going to be a wash. But in the end...the offensive improvement is probably all that matters. The rotation just needs to buy time for Hultzen/Paxton/Walker to come up.
How will 2013 look if Hultzen/Paxton are in the rotation and Walker looks he might be a midseason callup? How will the offseason look with Ichiro's contract off the books? Do the M's use the money they haven't spent this offseason to pay for Figgins' last year and leave the team with?
What could Jack Z do with $40 million in an offseason next offseason? Maybe you give Mike Napoli $20 million per year and let he and Montero trade off at C/DH. Or bring in David Wright to provide a veteran presence at 3B. Or bring in Victorino/Bourn/Ethier to replace Ichiro. Drawing free agents like Fielder to Seattle hasn't worked, but maybe it will if we have the money and show we have a core worth building around.
What does anyone else think?
Awesome post.
I agree with a boatload of it. This part however I don't.
It's early for Montero, and I don't expect him to come out and hit immediately or all season long. Attempting to become an MLB catcher while turning into a middle of the order hitter is a lot to ask of a 22 year old.
I do.
The Ms just gave up a total stud for this kid and I know he is young and it's unreasonable for what I am about to say but as a Mariner fan I am getting unreasonable. I'm not sure I can take another let down. I hope this kid is a rock star man. I hope this kid starts dominating the game at the plate and behind it.
And considering what we gave up, we should expect it. Unfortunately we are Mariner fans and lets be honest, let's just say it's rained a few times.
I'd actually like to see both these guys do well for their respective franchises and hopefully the M's get the better end of the deal here.
But seriously the M's gave up a freakin stud for Montero and fair or unfair middle of the road isn't going to cut it.
