Top 15 prospects

[Slats]

I think we have the best top 5 group of prospects in the whole majors. I really like the way Jack has started to put this team together by building up the farm and hopefully we will see the rewards over the next few years.


http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.ph ... -mariners/



1. Jesus Montero, C/DH
BORN: Nov. 28, 1989
EXPERIENCE: 5 seasons
ACQUIRED: 2006 international free agent
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: 1st (Yankees)

The Mariners organization acquired one of the top offensive prospects in baseball but it cost the organization dearly with pitchers Michael Pineda and Jose Campos heading to the New York Yankees. The Mariners front office suggests that Montero will continue to catch, although the general consensus remains that he’ll move to first base or designated hitter sooner rather than later. The right-handed hitter made his MLB debut in 2011 and showed the ability to hit for both power and average despite the fact he didn’t turn 22 until this past November. Despite his youth, Montero already has five years of pro experience, as well as two full seasons in triple-A. He’s ready for prime time and could be the Mariners best hitter in 2012 – as a rookie. The home ball park could hamper his numbers a bit but the all-star potential could be there for years to come.

2. Danny Hultzen, LHP
BORN: Nov. 28, 1989
EXPERIENCE: None
ACQUIRED: 2011 1st round (2nd overall), University of Virginia
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: NA

Almost every single mock draft had Danny Hultzen heading to the Arizona Diamondbacks with the third pick of the 2011 draft. Seattle put an end to that speculation when it nabbed the southpaw with the second overall pick after Pittsburgh grabbed another college arm, Gerrit Cole, with the first overall selection. The U of Virginia alum signed too late to play during the regular season but he did pitch 19.1 innings in the Arizona Fall League. Hultzen looked good, posting a 2.79 FIP (1.40 ERA) with 18 strikeouts and just five walks. He doesn’t have “explosive stuff” but he’s extremely polished and has an above-average repertoire for a southpaw. His fastball sits in the low 90s and can touch 95-96 mph. He also has a potentially-plus changeup and a slider. With his strong debut the lefty could open 2012 in double-A, an aggressive assignment for sure but it would allow him to skip over the potent California League.

3. Taijuan Walker, RHP
BORN: Aug. 13, 1992
EXPERIENCE: 2 years
ACQUIRED: 2010 supplemental 1st round, California HS
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: 4th

As a multi-sport star in high school, Walker was supposed to be a bit of a project when the organization signed him in 2010. The club has been fairly cautious with him so far but the right-hander may finally be ready to explode after a breakout ’11 season. Walker has a good chance at becoming one of the top pitching prospects in the minors in 2012 and could very well reach double-A if he continues to advance like he did last season. He spent all of ’11 in low-A ball and he posted a 2.70 FIP (2.89 ERA) in 96.2 innings. He overpowered more advanced hitters; his strikeout rate sat at 10.52 K/9 and he allowed just 6.42 hits per nine innings. Walker also does a nice job of inducing ground-ball outs. His fastball sits in the mid 90s and can touch the upper 90s. He also has a good curveball and changeup. He’ll face a stiff challenge when he opens 2012 in the California League (high-A ball) and he won’t turn 20 until August.

4. James Paxton, LHP
BORN: Nov. 6, 1988
EXPERIENCE: 2010 4th round, Independent baseball league
ACQUIRED: 1 season
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: NA

The Blue Jays’ loss is the Mariners’ gain. When negotiations disintegrated between Toronto and its 2009 first round draft pick, Paxton headed off to pitch in an independent baseball league and re-entered the amateur draft in 2010. Due to an uneven performance, though, he slipped to the fourth round where he was an absolute steal for the organization. The Canadian native had an outstanding 2011 season while pitching in both low-A and double-A ball. At the higher level Paxton posted a strikeout rate of 11.77 K/9 with above-average ground ball numbers in 39.0 innings. He also made strides with his control, which can desert him at times. The southpaw has a solid pitcher’s frame and an above-average repertoire. His fastball ranges from 91-97 mph and he also a potentially-plus curveball and a solid changeup. He could return to double-A to open 2012 but may very well make his big league debut at some point during the coming season.

5. Nick Franklin, SS
BORN: March 2, 1991
EXPERIENCE: 3 seasons
ACQUIRED: 2009 1st round, Florida HS
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: 3rd

Franklin opened a lot of eyes in 2010 when he unexpectedly slammed 23 home runs in 129 low-A ball games. His power dried up a bit during an injury-plagued ’11 season as he managed just five in 64 games while playing in the hitter-happy California League. His isolated power rate dropped from .205 in ’10 to .136 in ’11. Not a one-trick pony, Franklin isn’t afraid to use the whole field and should hit for a solid average at the MLB level. In the field, there are some concerns over his ability to stick at shortstop. A move to second base could cause a log jam in the organization with Dustin Ackley already entrenched there at the big league level. Franklin appeared in 21 games at the end of the season and then made up for some lost time with another 24 games in the Arizona Fall League. He should return to double-A to begin 2012 but could see triple-A before long.

[Ex-hippie]

Well, the top four are really good. I'm not sure Franklin is quite on that level; he's had one great season and one mediocre, albeit injury-plagued, season. I'm not sure how that's any different from (say) James Jones, who didn't even make the top 15 list. Franklin is a better prospect than Jones and could get back up there with another big year I guess, but we should wait for that to happen before we proclaim him as part of an elite top five. As the article says, he might not stick at shortstop, there isn't room for him at second, and if he's at third then his bat becomes sort of ordinary.

On the other hand, those top four are fantastic. I'm excited by just how much Walker dominated A-ball. His mix of high strikeouts, low walks and keeping balls in play on the ground remind me of Felix, or maybe Kevin Brown (who was once truly great before he became a contract nightmare). Yes, he did it against lower competition and needs to be refined further, but he clearly has the goods.

[Sweezo]

Well, the top four are really good. I'm not sure Franklin is quite on that level; he's had one great season and one mediocre, albeit injury-plagued, season.

Any idea who you would put at #5 if not Franklin? There's been a lot of these pre-season prospect rankings and I've only seen one that didn't have Franklin listed #5; that particular ranking put Guillermo Pimentel or Phillips Castillo at #5 [I cannot remember which one, nor can I seem to find it].

[Ex-hippie]

Well, the top four are really good. I'm not sure Franklin is quite on that level; he's had one great season and one mediocre, albeit injury-plagued, season.

Any idea who you would put at #5 if not Franklin? There's been a lot of these pre-season prospect rankings and I've only seen one that didn't have Franklin listed #5; that particular ranking put Guillermo Pimentel or Phillips Castillo at #5 [I cannot remember which one, nor can I seem to find it].

I'd probably put Franklin at #5, but I'm just saying the real drop-off seems to be after #4. Franklin doesn't seem like quite the elite prospect that the top 5 are. Franklin is perhaps the best of the rest.

But boy, I sure do like those pitchers at 2-3-4. Kind of a shame they had to trade Campos -- sure it's a position of obvious organizational depth, and the trade was a fair one, but on the other hand the rotation of the future just could have been that much more fantastic.

[Slats]

Catricala I think is going to continue to make more noise this year! His bat is very impressive. It's a real shame he doesn't have much value on defense and it looks like he'll be stuck in LF.

[bennith13]

Its arlarming to me that we have no OF prospects. Hopefully that can change after this years draft. How bad was our system allowed to get the last decade? its terrible that we have had so many good draft positions and our systems only good players are the ones drafted in the last two years.

[Sweezo]

Its arlarming to me that we have no OF prospects. Hopefully that can change after this years draft. How bad was our system allowed to get the last decade? its terrible that we have had so many good draft positions and our systems only good players are the ones drafted in the last two years.

There may be some OF prospects, but so many of them are of the Latin America variety that God only knows what they will actually become and in what time frame. I think the M's realize the gap as they tried adding younger players like Wells/Robinson/Chiang last year via trade.

Far be it from me to criticize the M's draft philosophy under Jack Z, but it does seem like the M's like to add young OF talent that has power potential but poor contact rates in the hopes that the player will put it all together. "Lacks plate discipline" seems all to common a refrain in reports for many of the M's OF hitting prospects. I have more confidence in players who know how to hit and may be able to add power later.

There may be some hope as Catricala can hit and doesn't seem likely to stick in the IF, while Castillo and Pimentel have shown power potential.