Offseason Thread

[Sweezo]

So we have a new hitting coach [meh]. And we brought Oliver Perez back [alright]. And Iwakuma back [yay!]. But as neat as that is, ow we're getting into some interesting stuff...

The M's, of course, are in amongst the teams rumored to be interest in Justin Upton. Also...

The Mariners look like a possible new entry in the Josh Hamilton sweepstakes, people familiar with their thinking suggest.

The Orioles were identified earlier Wednesday as a potential landing spot for the biggest positional star on the free-agent market, which is just beginning to show itself.

The Brewers are a third team that has interest in the superstar outfielder, according to sources, though GM Doug Melvin has said money could be an issue for them.

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/blog/jon-heyman/20873382/mariners-orioles-look-like-two-possible-players-in-the-josh-hamilton-sweepstakes

Huh. So Hamilton would surely cost a ton of money, and I certainly count myself amongst those who are skeptical about how much ownership is willing to commit to payroll in 2013. And do not know how much I would want to give up for the likes of Justin Upton.

But if the M's could manage to land both...my goodness.

[TTown]

a lot of seattle-area sports writers are convinced we're going to spend a lot of money this offseason. should be an interesting few days at the winter meetings... hopefully we come back with more than jack cust.

i'm all in for upton. hamilton scares the crap out of me, but at the same time, i think the phrase beggars can't be choosers was coined several hundred years ago with the seattle mariners franchise in mind. with nothing to back it up, i just foresee a string of .255/22/90 seasons from hamilton if he comes here. which aren't terrible numbers, mind you, but not exactly worth what we'll be paying.

but we gotta do something, obviously.

[Sweezo]

i'm all in for upton. hamilton scares the crap out of me, but at the same time, i think the phrase beggars can't be choosers was coined several hundred years ago with the seattle mariners franchise in mind. with nothing to back it up, i just foresee a string of .255/22/90 seasons from hamilton if he comes here. which aren't terrible numbers, mind you, but not exactly worth what we'll be paying.

but we gotta do something, obviously.

Would I pay him a 7 year/$175 million contract starting at age 32? Probably not. But a 5 year year deal with a hefty amount of money doesn't scare me. I place more value on Hamilton than a guy like Fielder because I think Hamilton might be able to contribute over the length of a whole contract.

Interestingly, Hamilton's career line at Safeco is .224/.338/.408 over almost 150 plate appearances. But his road/home splits aren't too dramatic. I'd expect him to hit better in Texas, but he's performed well on the road.

Upton's interesting as his HR numbers have really been all over the place over the course of his career. Upton is under contract for two years and would require spending some trade capital which makes me leery of how much he might cost.

The M's also surfaced as a potential contender for Nick Swisher as well. I think he's interesting too. He's easy to overlook but he's been remarkably consistent over his career. He may not get as many hits as the other two, but he has good plate discipline.

[TTown]

"word", insomuch that we're hearing anything substantial, is that texas and hamilton are getting closer and closer on a 4-year deal.

i'm tempted to spend other people's money here and suggest swooping in at $5 mil more/per. i could live with a 4-year deal. we'd be overpaying, no question, but you know what they say.

[Sweezo]

Well...they've got to do something. And signing Jason Bay certainly isn't it. I know there are other moves still to be made, but the idea of coming away from the winter meetings with nothing more than Jason Bay is horrible. Pair that with the rumor that the M's are looking at bringing Ibanez again as a platoon partner, and I'm all the more incredulous.

[TTown]

yeah, jason bay isn't exactly god's gift to excitement. i'm not entirely sure what he brings to the table that casper wells doesn't.

not super excited about michael bourn, either. i'm seeing more and more 'he could slip to seattle' blogs, but... eh. speedsters after 30? meh.

[Sweezo]

Apparently now there's word that Josh Hamilton might be close to joining the Angels. THE ANGELS. As if this offseason couldn't go any worse. Whatever glimmer of hope was offered by the thought of expiring contracts and a bump in payroll helping this team contend seems completely extinguished at this point. All of the hitters target by the M's--with the exception of Jason Bay--have either signed elsewhere or seem primed to do so.

Hamilton? With Upton seemingly staying in Arizona and Grienke in LA, odds are he either stays in Texas or maybe makes the move to the Angels.

Swisher? The Indians have done a far better job making that team more attractive with their moves than we have.

I don't want to talk about Bourn, really. If this team wants a good defensive OF, they can trot that out there without spending an extra nickel.

I'm so upset with this team right now. Seeing the M's in the headlines yet again trying to scuttle the new Sonics Arena while their team can't make any improvements is quite the juxtaposition. No team has lost more of its paying customers in the last ten years than the M's, so why not alienate sports fans in the area even further? Is the payroll about $70 million now? How's that going to allow this team to be even remotely competitve as teams like the Dodgers spend hand over fist?

[Sweezo]

And Hamilton's off the board at 5 years/$125 million to the Angels. Which is, to me, about a worst case scenario. I can't look at the numbers and think 'now there's a deal the M's should have tried to beat,' but reality is this new market with these huge, grossly inflated contracts for big name free agents. Being unable to compete for these players is staggeringly difficult.

Now the M's are left to compete with God knows how many teams for Swisher. And if the rumors are true that Swisher wants a deal similar to Jayson Werth's 7 year/$126 million monstrosity, I don't think that's a deal the M's make either.

Here's to eternal mediocrity.

[TTown]

luckily there's recent precedent for the angels to sign the best free agent on the market and fall hilariously on their collective faces.

not much else to do but watch swisher sign elsewhere and then hope for massive internal improvement. ackley, seager, montero, smoak, saunders... can't be young/exciting prospects any longer. gotta be baseball players. and for the love of god, get healthy, guti.

couldn't agree more on bourne. which means we'll probably sign him.

[asdf1223]

They apparently offered Hamilton 4 years with two very easy vesting options for years 5 and 6. Problem is hitters dont want to come here. Looked like Hamilton just used it as leverage to get a 5th guaranteed year. I think the best chance of an impact hitter is either Ackley/Montero rebounding or Zunino destroying AAA and forcing himself into Seattle. Or trading one of the big 3 plus Franklin.

[Sweezo]

They apparently offered Hamilton 4 years with two very easy vesting options for years 5 and 6. Problem is hitters dont want to come here. Looked like Hamilton just used it as leverage to get a 5th guaranteed year. I think the best chance of an impact hitter is either Ackley/Montero rebounding or Zunino destroying AAA and forcing himself into Seattle. Or trading one of the big 3 plus Franklin.

I think the M's offer was a good, competitive offer. And if the M's had a roster similar to that of the Angels [i.e. a better chance of competing], I think we may have had a better shot. This is the bigger problem to me, not the problems the stadium may offer to hitters. If the Astros and the Yankees offer the same deal and same role to the same player, assuming no prior ties to either franchise, that player seems more likely to accept the Yankees deal.

What will frustrate me to no end is if the M's are to lose out on Swisher to the Indians on a reasonable deal. That Indians team doesn't seem destined for greatness either. I know Swisher does have some ties to the area, but with his wife being an actress and the general standard of living, I'd like to think Seattle would be more desirable than Cleveland.

[Slats]

Jon Heyman on Twitter: the swisher tour does not currently include the #mariners. get feeling they want to do protect that No. 12 draft pick.

If this is the case - rule out the M's signing Bourn as well.

[Sweezo]

Jon Heyman on Twitter: the swisher tour does not currently include the #mariners. get feeling they want to do protect that No. 12 draft pick.

If this is the case - rule out the M's signing Bourn as well.

For what it's worth, Ryan Divish mentioned on Twitter that Jack Z seemed resigned to losing that pick if need be to land a hitter, and that Swisher's simply been uninterested in coming to Seattle from the get go. Makes sense to me...if Swisher's agent leaks that the M's are out b/c of the draft pick issue, it gives them a convenient out publicly without saying 'Hey! Seattle has money but they're so bad we aren't considering them!'

I'm not thrilled with the idea of Bourn, but I'm thinking that's the last high profile guy we have a shot idea. If someone wanted to see the M's try and stockpile starting pitching, unfortunately Edwin Jackson appears close to signing a deal. Which leaves...not a whole lot of anything exciting on the market. I'm admittedly lukewarm on Bourn because I think he has a Figgins-esque skill set, but I suppose we would have a potential use for a leadoff hitter given Ackley's issues.

Disappointing, to say the least.

[Slats]

Jon Heyman on Twitter: the swisher tour does not currently include the #mariners. get feeling they want to do protect that No. 12 draft pick.

If this is the case - rule out the M's signing Bourn as well.

For what it's worth, Ryan Divish mentioned on Twitter that Jack Z seemed resigned to losing that pick if need be to land a hitter, and that Swisher's simply been uninterested in coming to Seattle from the get go. Makes sense to me...if Swisher's agent leaks that the M's are out b/c of the draft pick issue, it gives them a convenient out publicly without saying 'Hey! Seattle has money but they're so bad we aren't considering them!'

I'm not thrilled with the idea of Bourn, but I'm thinking that's the last high profile guy we have a shot idea. If someone wanted to see the M's try and stockpile starting pitching, unfortunately Edwin Jackson appears close to signing a deal. Which leaves...not a whole lot of anything exciting on the market. I'm admittedly lukewarm on Bourn because I think he has a Figgins-esque skill set, but I suppose we would have a potential use for a leadoff hitter given Ackley's issues.

Disappointing, to say the least.

I agree - it seems like Swisher isn't interested in Seattle.

I might be in the minority, but I am keen on getting Bourn. I know he's not the 'big bat' everyone is hoping for, but he is one a terrific defensive player with speed to burn from the leadoff spot. Ackley could hit in the 2 spot which would suit him a lot better IMO.

Bourn's market has really shrunk this off-season and I don't think he will get quite as big a payday as he was expecting. Hopefully the Mariners can make a move for him if Swisher is out.

Just a couple of stats -

Most wins above replacement among outfielders over the past four seasons:

1. Ryan Braun, 25.9
2. Jose Bautista, 20.2
3. Michael Bourn, 19.0
4. Matt Holliday, 18.3
5. Andrew McCutchen, 18.1

His defensive runs saved the past four years:

2009: plus-11
2010: plus-30
2011: minus-3
2012: plus-24

[Sweezo]

I might be in the minority, but I am keen on getting Bourn. I know he's not the 'big bat' everyone is hoping for, but he is one a terrific defensive player with speed to burn from the leadoff spot. Ackley could hit in the 2 spot which would suit him a lot better IMO.

Bourn's market has really shrunk this off-season and I don't think he will get quite as big a payday as he was expecting. Hopefully the Mariners can make a move for him if Swisher is out.

Just a couple of stats -

Most wins above replacement among outfielders over the past four seasons:

1. Ryan Braun, 25.9
2. Jose Bautista, 20.2
3. Michael Bourn, 19.0
4. Matt Holliday, 18.3
5. Andrew McCutchen, 18.1

His defensive runs saved the past four years:

2009: plus-11
2010: plus-30
2011: minus-3
2012: plus-24

One thing I wonder about it how much of a defensive upgrade Bourn would be over Saunders/Guti. Both players are stellar defensively. If you shift Guti to RF I don't know that you've really saved that many runs.

In an unrelated note, we just traded Jason Vargas for Kendrys Morales! I'm a big fan of this move as it's cost effective and Morales has traditionally hit well in SafeCo Field.

[TTown]

so the question seems to be... is this the end of smoak? morales is a primary dh, but did play 28 games at 1B last year. montero rotates between catcher/dh/1B. then there's jaso at catcher/dh. something's got to give, and smoak's done nothing to earn AB's over any of them.

also, something i've been meaning to ask: guti, saunders, bay, thames, wells. them's a lot of outfielders. i know counting on guti is iffy at best lately so having a solid 4th is a must, but can we expect another move?

[Sweezo]

also, something i've been meaning to ask: guti, saunders, bay, thames, wells. them's a lot of outfielders. i know counting on guti is iffy at best lately so having a solid 4th is a must, but can we expect another move?

Yes, you can expect another move. And that move is adding Raul Ibanez! I have no idea what we're going to do with Raul. We have enough slow DH types who can't run, and Ibanez is an absolutely horrendous defensive outfielder. I get the idea of adding a veteran or two to the bench, but unfortunately Wedge likes to play those guys way more than he should.

[nuke the whales]

also, something i've been meaning to ask: guti, saunders, bay, thames, wells. them's a lot of outfielders. i know counting on guti is iffy at best lately so having a solid 4th is a must, but can we expect another move?

The problem is out of those five, we have one healthy full time starter, two 4th outfielders, a reclamation project, and Guti can't stay on the field. That's why we keep getting linked to Hamilton, Swisher, Bourn, etc. Now that Jason Kubel is on the block we'll probably be linked to him too.

[nuke the whales]

And so much for Swisher.
http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/87746 ... eal-source

[Sweezo]

The problem is out of those five, we have one healthy full time starter, two 4th outfielders, a reclamation project, and Guti can't stay on the field. That's why we keep getting linked to Hamilton, Swisher, Bourn, etc. Now that Jason Kubel is on the block we'll probably be linked to him too.

After adding Bay/Morales/Ibanez, I am not fond of adding Jason Kubel. That's another player on the wrong side of 30 who's slow as molasses and can't play defense.