Seattle Mariners (2-2) @ Chicago White Sox (2-1)

[Slats]

http://www.ussmariner.com/2013/04/05/se ... ox-series/

Series Preview:

MARINERS (2-2) WHITE SOX (2-1) EDGE
HITTING (wOBA*) 0.7 (14th) -2.8 (20th) Mariners
FIELDING (RBBIP) 3.0 (7th) 1.0 (9th) Mariners
ROTATION (xRA) 2.0 (4th) 1.8 (5th) Mariners
BULLPEN (xRA) -1.0 (24th) 0.7 (11th) White Sox
OVERALL (RAA) 4.6 (11th) 0.8 (15th) MARINERS

Hello there, you may not be familiar with my series preview breakdowns. I did these, in evolving formats, for years at Lookout Landing and I hope to continue doing them here. I’ll do so even if only for my own benefit since the above and below charts are informative for me and I like to get the periodic checks on how the composite units of the Mariners are doing.

Since this may be new to you, I’ll run through what each row means. Hitting is judged on each team’s park-adjusted wOBA to date. I’m using the wOBA from my site, StatCorner.com, so that answers any questions on why it might be slightly different than FanGraphs.com or whatever your preferred site shows.

xRA is laid out in a really long post here, but the simple take is that it’s xFIP meets tRA. That is, it’s xFIP plus batted ball types and whether or not the batted balls were pulled or hit the other way.
MARINERS WHITE SOX EDGE
INFIELD 3.4 (2nd) 5.3 (1st) White Sox
OUTFIELD -0.4 (15th) -4.3 (26th) Mariners
RBBIP 0.245 (8th) 0.263 (10th) Mariners
OVERALL 3.0 (7th) 1.0 (9th) MARINERS

Fielding is judged by looking at how often each team allows a ball in play to result in a runner on base via either a hit or error. There’s more explanation available, but the 10,000-foot view is to take all the balls in play, adjust them for the park (yes, it has an effect), and then for each type (e.g. grounder, liner), figure out how often they should turn into outs and the cost (in run value) of not turning them into an out. Then add it all up. It can’t be used to judge individual defenders, but I’m not convinced of any metrics’ worth at doing that anyways.

Above, I split the fielding into infield and outfield units based on who I judge is responsible for fielding each batted ball type. Unremarkably, the Mariners are already showing a divergence between their infield defenders and their outfielders.
05 APR 17:10 – JOSE QUINTANA* vs BLAKE BEAVAN

I used to include what I thought were pretty cool illustrated and interactive charts here for each starting pitcher. Alas, they rely on external javascript to build and WordPress is so so lame. If anyone has experience in this manner, please get in touch with me. I’m going to continue working toward some presentation solution, but for now, here are the dates, times and starting pitchers!
06 APR 10:10 – DYLAN AXELROD vs FELIX HERNANDEZ
07 APR 11:10 – CHRIS SALE* vs HISASHI IWAKUMA

[Slats]

Mariners lineup for Game 1:

1: Gutierrez, CF
2: Saunders, RF
3: Morales, 1B
4: Morse, DH
5: Montero, C
6: Seager, 3B
7: Bay, LF
8: Ackley, 2B
9: Ryan, SS
SP: Beavan

[Slats]

Guti! What a start.

[Sweezo]

Guti! What a start.

If he can JUST stay healthy this season...

I thought we had this game in the bag with a 6-1 lead but then Blake Beavan remembered who he was. Now its a one run lead and ever present stolen base threat Adam Dunn is at the plate looking to tie it up.

I did these, in evolving formats, for years at Lookout Landing and I hope to continue doing them here.

Really? What was your username over there? This is kind of an odd place for LL-style breakdowns.

[TTown]

great stuff slats, we're not a large community but we're we've all stuck around through the last few years so if nothing proves fandom, that might.

blake beavan was very blake beavan-y last night. unhittable the first 4-5 innings, then thought he should switch it up and pitch off a tee.

big hit by morales, though. glad he finally introduced himself to the team.

[BayAreaMadSkill]

Is it just me, or have the homeplate umpires just been absolutely HORRENDOUS in our first few series? Every single game too. I just watched Felix throw two obvious strikes to Beckham. Yep, two balls. But really; Every game there are atleast 10 obvious strikes called balls, and its really starting to get on my nerves. Seems more of a problem thus far that previous years.

Anyways, nice win last night. It's about time Morales did something for us.

And to make Sweezo happy, I will say THANK GOD Morse wasn't in RF on that hard hit by Adam Dunn late in the game.

[Sweezo]

This is sort of a miserable game to watch with the wind blowing garbage around the field. I always hated playing baseball in that kind of weather.

And to make Sweezo happy, I will say THANK GOD Morse wasn't in RF on that hard hit by Adam Dunn late in the game.

He was in the field on the triple hit by Gillaspie today. He read the ball wrong off the bat, took a step in, then had to change direction and the thing flew over his head. Gillaspie scored later to tie the game up.

[Sweezo]

Great work, Ibanez. A run scores on a sac fly where your noodle-armed throw to the plate bounced 8-9 times, and you struck out with RISP while swinging at a face-high pitch.

[BayAreaMadSkill]

Yeah, I don't get playing Ibanez. And what's worse is that Wedge sat GUTIERREZ for him, who has been our hottest hitter. Haven't thought about it much, but Wedge must REALLY like Righty/Lefty, Lefty/Righty matchups. Okay, Ibanez is a lefty, but I dont care. He sucks. Put the guys out there that give us the best chance to win.

Anyways; Game today is a good one. Iwakuma is really locked in and Morales has murdered the ball. Hopefully we can hold on.

Oh, and my boy Morse continues to lead the majors in homers.

[TTown]

i come from a school of thought where occasional days off are okay, but rotations/platoons are a no-no... unless certain splits are so outrageous it would be unwise not to. having five outfielders who needed playing time never sat well with me, and i abhor andino getting playing time in non-pinch running situations.

an unfortunate series. we got the win on a beavan start, lost a felix, and then lost kuma's even though we scored some runs on one of the best pitchers in the league. we won't have felix or kuma available against the astros, but since they're hot garbage i'm hoping we can get it done.

[BayAreaMadSkill]

Kameron Loe is garbage. Knew we would lose as soon as he came in.

Morse was pretty awful outside of the HR, but oh well. If we don't sweep the Astros then I will be very upset.

[Sweezo]

i come from a school of thought where occasional days off are okay, but rotations/platoons are a no-no... unless certain splits are so outrageous it would be unwise not to. having five outfielders who needed playing time never sat well with me, and i abhor andino getting playing time in non-pinch running situations.

I am OK with a platoon in the right situation. If the best you can do at a position is have two 4th OF types competing for a starting spot, and each bats from the opposite of the plate, then you do what you have to.

But a platoon situation for anyone on the M's right now is a bad idea.

I'll give Andino some credit; He stung a ball down the line for a double. I have zero confidence in Ackley right now. I have not given up on him but it seems either he or the coaching staff believed the answer to last year's struggles was to change his batting stance. What he's doing right now just seems uncomfortable. I loved Ackley's swing when he first came up. It was a fluid, line-drive inducing swing. Now he's taking stunted hacks on a downward plane and struggling to eke out infield hits.

They spent a bit of time talking about changes in batting stances on Brock Huard's show this morning. With Smoak I see modest results. He's showing good patience, getting around on the ball and just needs to show a little power. If I hadn't seen Smoak swing a bat before and saw him for the first time right now I wouldn't get the feeling he was working on something new or different.

Ackley? Complete opposite. I am not sure what they are going to do with him. There's no question he has the talent to be a top level 2B but I'm growing concerned that he won't put it all together in Seattle. What do they do? Continue with the new swing? Go back to the old one?

an unfortunate series. we got the win on a beavan start, lost a felix, and then lost kuma's even though we scored some runs on one of the best pitchers in the league. we won't have felix or kuma available against the astros, but since they're hot garbage i'm hoping we can get it done.

I'm going to Opening Day tonight, and hoping Joe Saunders doesn't break the streak of SP having crazy success against Astros hitters.