A slightly unorthodox offseason plan
Re: A slightly unorthodox offseason plan
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Basketball Jesus
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Re: A slightly unorthodox offseason plan
I plan on posting mine tomorrow so you can all laugh at me.
Manocad wrote:The universe is the age it is. We can all agree it's 13 billion years old, and nothing changes. We can all agree it's 6000 years old, and nothing changes. We can all disagree on how old it is, and nothing changes. Some people really need a hobby.
Re: A slightly unorthodox offseason plan
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Basketball Jesus
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Re: A slightly unorthodox offseason plan
OK, time to take my own stab at it. Here is my Twelve Step Program Towards a Better Mariners:
1. Mariners trade SS Yuniesky Betancourt and 3B Adrian Beltre to the Chicago White Sox for 3B Josh Fields and RP Fernando Hernandez.
On the face of it, the deal seems kind of strange for either side to make. For one, Fields seems to be the heir apparent to Crede after this season; on the other side it seems the Mariners are getting short-changed for two major leaguers.
I think the White Sox pull the trigger because it gives them two major leaguers to plug their two biggest holes this offseason: 3B and SS. While Beltre was a tad expensive when he signed his contract, the market has adjusted to the point where he’s paid accordingly, if not an outright bargain. He is an excellent defensive 3B and his right-handed bat should benefit from moving from Safeco to the Cell. Betancourt, while not an ideal option, does provide a relatively cheap solution to filling short without having to dip into an offseason free agent market where Rafael Furcal is going to earn a dub-digit million dollar deal. Plus, this is a team that used to rune Juan Uribe out at short so defense isn’t really that big of a deal. (And, with Orlando Cabrera, neither was offense, apparently.) Adding these two gives the White Sox a last-gasp shot at the World Series with their aging line-up, at the cost of one oldish prospect they’ve pretty much given up on and a middle relief prospect with average stuff.
Why I think the Mariners do this is that it will free up Beltre’s contract, allow them to get rid of the worst-fielding SS in the league, AND give them a replacement option at third. Fields is no great shakes but his bat should play at the major league level and he’s young. Hernandez is nothing more than a RP prospect flier, albeit one with OK-good peripherals.
2. Mariners trade SP Jarrod Washburn and cash (70% of Washburn’s 2009 contract - $7MM) to the New York Yankees for SP George Kontos.
Washburn’s not necessarily an awful pitcher – he generally gives you around 180+ league-average innings a year – but, at $10MM, you definitely want more for your dollar. He gives the Yankees a bit of big-league stability as a one-year insurance pitcher at the cost of only $3MM and a decent-good prospect in Kontos, who most likely finds himself on the outside looking in for a set spot in the Yankees’ big-league rotation.
Kontos would then become the best Mariners pitching prospect above A-ball and a candidate for the rotation as early as next season.
3. Mariners trade C Kenji Johjima and cash ($8MM) to the Houston Astros for UT Geoff Blum
Essentially this is a pure dump trade: the Mariners shift Johjima’s contract to the Astros, while paying one year of his extension. In return they get Bloomquist-esque Blum, who can provide infield depth at $1.1MM. The Astros get Johjima, who’s still pretty good defensively, as the Asian version of their Brad Ausmus and as back-up for Towles.
4. Mariners DFA Miguel Batista
The only issue I have is that $9MM is a lot of cash to eat without getting something in return but, let’s face it, you’re not getting anything in return for Batista. You could package Juan Ramirez with him and teams still wouldn’t bite.
5. Mariners head to arbitration with Erik Bedard
The trade market for him is pretty weak given his injury so there’s no sense in moving him now. Let him play half a year; his trade value’s got nowhere to go but up (I hope).
6a. Mariners sign Raul Ibanez to 2-year $12MM contract with club option
6b. Mariners sign Juan Rivera to a 2-year, $4MM contract.
I’m hesitant to sign Ibanez long-term. I know he’s looking for at least a three-year commitment but there are far too many better options out there for DH-types. It’s a minor bump in pay and a multi-year deal to stay with the M’s for a team he loves. If he says no…eff it, get the comp picks.
If Ibanez decides the grass is a little greener outside the Pacific Northwest, the Mariners go after Juan Rivera for two years at marginal cost. While not an optimal solution for DH, Rivera does have power, he’s only 30, and he’s fungible enough to discard once a better solution comes along.
7a. Mariners sign SS Adam Everett to a 2-year $5MM contract
7b. Mariners sign SS Alex Cora to a 2-year $4MM contract
Wait…what? We get rid of an offensive black hole at first only to add another one? Yes, both Adam Everett and (to a lesser degree) Cora suck offensively but, and here’s the important thing, both are exceptional defensive shortstops. (Everett’s generally considered one of, if not the best in the game.) With a team that has two groundballers in Felix and Carlos Silva, infield defense is a premium. So, while the team will still be sacrificing offense at shortstop, they’ve now corrected the issue with Betancourt’s defense in a major way.
8. Convert Brandon Morrow back into a RP, slate him as set-up for Putz, groom him for closer.
I’ve given my reasons for this in various threads so I won’t repeat it here: simply put, Morrow’s profile is much better suited as a dominant power reliever than a starter. Groom him as the eventual replacement for Putz. Showcase Putz for a potential deadline deal and slide Morrow over to replace him.
9. Sign Oliver Perez to a 3-year $24MM contract
This is by far the riskiest transaction I propose. On the face, it looks a lot like the Carlos Silva deal: signing an average pitcher to a bloated contract. This is entirely different and the type of risk a team like the Mariners should take. Whereas Silva was an average/good pitcher, he had very limited upside. You knew you were getting league-average production. Perez, on the other hand, is an incredibly streaky pitcher who, when on, can be downright dominant. He has a much higher upside and he’s entering his age-27 season, generally the cusp of a pitcher’s peak years. If Perez can become more consistent, he’s an absolute steal at $8MM per. If not, even his downs aren’t as bad as $9MM man Miggy Batista.
10. Sign Jay Payton to 1-year $2.5MM contract
Payton, who will turn 36 in November, would provide an able platoon in center with Jeremy Reed, taking Reed’s futile attempts against lefties and turning them into productive ABs. (Payton’s career against LHP: .288/.346/.466). He also provides OK depth at all three OF positions. The problem with this contract is that Payton still has delusions of grandeur and thinks he deserves a starting gig, so this deal may not happen. I’ll pretend that this is the best chance Payton has at seeing meaningful ABs and add him to the M’s.
11. Sign Nomar Garciaparra to a 2-year, $12MM contract with performance incentives.
We’ve had Bromar; let’s get the right Garciaparra this time! Well, right may be a subjective term as Nomar has been famously battling injuries for like the last 100 years. Still, even at 34 and in limited ABs, he can hit and, at this price, it’s a low-risk option. Garciaparra can split time between 1B, DH, and provide emergency insurance at SS. I assume that, with his injuries, he’s not going to be offered more than an year plus incentives, so offering a multi-year with incentives might sway him over to the M’s.
12. Let the organizational flotsam fight for the last SP spot
Whoever has the best Spring Training wins! No added cost and it allows the team to see what they have with guys like Ryan Feierabend, Ryan Rowland-Smith, R.A. Dickey, George Kontos, and others on the periphery.
All in all, the 25-man ends up looking like this:
C: Jeff Clement
1B: Nomar Garciaparra
2B: Jose Lopez
3B: Josh Fields
SS: Adam Everett (or Alex Cora)
LF: Wladimir Balentien
CF: Jeremy Reed
RF: Ichiro!
DH: Raul Ibanez (or Juan Rivera)
Bench C: Adam Moore
Bench OF: Jay Payton (platoon w/Reed)
Bench Middle IF: Tug Hulett
Bench UT: Geoff Blum
SP: Felix Hernandez
SP: Erik Bedard
SP: Oliver Perez
SP: Carlos Silva
SP: Ryan Feierabend/RR-S/R.A. Dickey/George Kontos
RP: Sean Green (high-leverage innings)
RP: Mark Lowe (low-leverage innings)
RP: R.A. Dickey (long relief/spot starting)
RP: Cesar Jimenez
SU: Brandon Morrow
CL: JJ Putz
As you may notice, there are no fancy big-name signings (unless you count Nomar and Oliver Perez), no panic trades to bring in veteran talent, no egregious overspending with respect to low ceiling players. Sure, this team isn’t sexy. And it probably won’t place any higher than last in the division.
While adding big talent like Adam Dunn, Manny, or Mark Teixeira would make this team better (and, in the case of Teix, address the woeful 1B situation), it’s not going to turn this team into an instant playoff contender. There are far too many other holes in this club. It doesn’t make sense to get into a $100MM bidding war for a player who’s going to be well outside his prime years by the time the Mariners start to seriously contend. And signing a player of that caliber isn’t going to add “prestige” to the team. Winning seasons add prestige. Smart front offices add prestige to an organization. Smart front offices don’t pour buckets of money on a four-win-upgrade player that will bring a team from 72 wins to 76 wins. There’s no benefit to those four extra wins.
Most importantly, by keeping their current farm intact, along with adding younger guys like Perez, Kontos, and Fields, the Mariners make progress in transitioning from an old, bloated team to a youthful, promising one. Sure, Clement and Balentien may not be the faces of the future Mariners but, by giving them a chance at considerable playing time, it allows the Mariners to gauge now whether or not players like Clement, Moore, Balentien, and Reed fit in with that plan instead of stringing them along with teases of whether or not they’ll live up to their potential. It also gives the team a chance to build up trade value in guys like Putz and Bedard for potential deadline deals to further the conversion towards the future. Both should be able to net the team some sort of top-line prospects.
Baby steps, dear friends. Baby steps.
1. Mariners trade SS Yuniesky Betancourt and 3B Adrian Beltre to the Chicago White Sox for 3B Josh Fields and RP Fernando Hernandez.
On the face of it, the deal seems kind of strange for either side to make. For one, Fields seems to be the heir apparent to Crede after this season; on the other side it seems the Mariners are getting short-changed for two major leaguers.
I think the White Sox pull the trigger because it gives them two major leaguers to plug their two biggest holes this offseason: 3B and SS. While Beltre was a tad expensive when he signed his contract, the market has adjusted to the point where he’s paid accordingly, if not an outright bargain. He is an excellent defensive 3B and his right-handed bat should benefit from moving from Safeco to the Cell. Betancourt, while not an ideal option, does provide a relatively cheap solution to filling short without having to dip into an offseason free agent market where Rafael Furcal is going to earn a dub-digit million dollar deal. Plus, this is a team that used to rune Juan Uribe out at short so defense isn’t really that big of a deal. (And, with Orlando Cabrera, neither was offense, apparently.) Adding these two gives the White Sox a last-gasp shot at the World Series with their aging line-up, at the cost of one oldish prospect they’ve pretty much given up on and a middle relief prospect with average stuff.
Why I think the Mariners do this is that it will free up Beltre’s contract, allow them to get rid of the worst-fielding SS in the league, AND give them a replacement option at third. Fields is no great shakes but his bat should play at the major league level and he’s young. Hernandez is nothing more than a RP prospect flier, albeit one with OK-good peripherals.
2. Mariners trade SP Jarrod Washburn and cash (70% of Washburn’s 2009 contract - $7MM) to the New York Yankees for SP George Kontos.
Washburn’s not necessarily an awful pitcher – he generally gives you around 180+ league-average innings a year – but, at $10MM, you definitely want more for your dollar. He gives the Yankees a bit of big-league stability as a one-year insurance pitcher at the cost of only $3MM and a decent-good prospect in Kontos, who most likely finds himself on the outside looking in for a set spot in the Yankees’ big-league rotation.
Kontos would then become the best Mariners pitching prospect above A-ball and a candidate for the rotation as early as next season.
3. Mariners trade C Kenji Johjima and cash ($8MM) to the Houston Astros for UT Geoff Blum
Essentially this is a pure dump trade: the Mariners shift Johjima’s contract to the Astros, while paying one year of his extension. In return they get Bloomquist-esque Blum, who can provide infield depth at $1.1MM. The Astros get Johjima, who’s still pretty good defensively, as the Asian version of their Brad Ausmus and as back-up for Towles.
4. Mariners DFA Miguel Batista
The only issue I have is that $9MM is a lot of cash to eat without getting something in return but, let’s face it, you’re not getting anything in return for Batista. You could package Juan Ramirez with him and teams still wouldn’t bite.
5. Mariners head to arbitration with Erik Bedard
The trade market for him is pretty weak given his injury so there’s no sense in moving him now. Let him play half a year; his trade value’s got nowhere to go but up (I hope).
6a. Mariners sign Raul Ibanez to 2-year $12MM contract with club option
6b. Mariners sign Juan Rivera to a 2-year, $4MM contract.
I’m hesitant to sign Ibanez long-term. I know he’s looking for at least a three-year commitment but there are far too many better options out there for DH-types. It’s a minor bump in pay and a multi-year deal to stay with the M’s for a team he loves. If he says no…eff it, get the comp picks.
If Ibanez decides the grass is a little greener outside the Pacific Northwest, the Mariners go after Juan Rivera for two years at marginal cost. While not an optimal solution for DH, Rivera does have power, he’s only 30, and he’s fungible enough to discard once a better solution comes along.
7a. Mariners sign SS Adam Everett to a 2-year $5MM contract
7b. Mariners sign SS Alex Cora to a 2-year $4MM contract
Wait…what? We get rid of an offensive black hole at first only to add another one? Yes, both Adam Everett and (to a lesser degree) Cora suck offensively but, and here’s the important thing, both are exceptional defensive shortstops. (Everett’s generally considered one of, if not the best in the game.) With a team that has two groundballers in Felix and Carlos Silva, infield defense is a premium. So, while the team will still be sacrificing offense at shortstop, they’ve now corrected the issue with Betancourt’s defense in a major way.
8. Convert Brandon Morrow back into a RP, slate him as set-up for Putz, groom him for closer.
I’ve given my reasons for this in various threads so I won’t repeat it here: simply put, Morrow’s profile is much better suited as a dominant power reliever than a starter. Groom him as the eventual replacement for Putz. Showcase Putz for a potential deadline deal and slide Morrow over to replace him.
9. Sign Oliver Perez to a 3-year $24MM contract
This is by far the riskiest transaction I propose. On the face, it looks a lot like the Carlos Silva deal: signing an average pitcher to a bloated contract. This is entirely different and the type of risk a team like the Mariners should take. Whereas Silva was an average/good pitcher, he had very limited upside. You knew you were getting league-average production. Perez, on the other hand, is an incredibly streaky pitcher who, when on, can be downright dominant. He has a much higher upside and he’s entering his age-27 season, generally the cusp of a pitcher’s peak years. If Perez can become more consistent, he’s an absolute steal at $8MM per. If not, even his downs aren’t as bad as $9MM man Miggy Batista.
10. Sign Jay Payton to 1-year $2.5MM contract
Payton, who will turn 36 in November, would provide an able platoon in center with Jeremy Reed, taking Reed’s futile attempts against lefties and turning them into productive ABs. (Payton’s career against LHP: .288/.346/.466). He also provides OK depth at all three OF positions. The problem with this contract is that Payton still has delusions of grandeur and thinks he deserves a starting gig, so this deal may not happen. I’ll pretend that this is the best chance Payton has at seeing meaningful ABs and add him to the M’s.
11. Sign Nomar Garciaparra to a 2-year, $12MM contract with performance incentives.
We’ve had Bromar; let’s get the right Garciaparra this time! Well, right may be a subjective term as Nomar has been famously battling injuries for like the last 100 years. Still, even at 34 and in limited ABs, he can hit and, at this price, it’s a low-risk option. Garciaparra can split time between 1B, DH, and provide emergency insurance at SS. I assume that, with his injuries, he’s not going to be offered more than an year plus incentives, so offering a multi-year with incentives might sway him over to the M’s.
12. Let the organizational flotsam fight for the last SP spot
Whoever has the best Spring Training wins! No added cost and it allows the team to see what they have with guys like Ryan Feierabend, Ryan Rowland-Smith, R.A. Dickey, George Kontos, and others on the periphery.
All in all, the 25-man ends up looking like this:
C: Jeff Clement
1B: Nomar Garciaparra
2B: Jose Lopez
3B: Josh Fields
SS: Adam Everett (or Alex Cora)
LF: Wladimir Balentien
CF: Jeremy Reed
RF: Ichiro!
DH: Raul Ibanez (or Juan Rivera)
Bench C: Adam Moore
Bench OF: Jay Payton (platoon w/Reed)
Bench Middle IF: Tug Hulett
Bench UT: Geoff Blum
SP: Felix Hernandez
SP: Erik Bedard
SP: Oliver Perez
SP: Carlos Silva
SP: Ryan Feierabend/RR-S/R.A. Dickey/George Kontos
RP: Sean Green (high-leverage innings)
RP: Mark Lowe (low-leverage innings)
RP: R.A. Dickey (long relief/spot starting)
RP: Cesar Jimenez
SU: Brandon Morrow
CL: JJ Putz
As you may notice, there are no fancy big-name signings (unless you count Nomar and Oliver Perez), no panic trades to bring in veteran talent, no egregious overspending with respect to low ceiling players. Sure, this team isn’t sexy. And it probably won’t place any higher than last in the division.
While adding big talent like Adam Dunn, Manny, or Mark Teixeira would make this team better (and, in the case of Teix, address the woeful 1B situation), it’s not going to turn this team into an instant playoff contender. There are far too many other holes in this club. It doesn’t make sense to get into a $100MM bidding war for a player who’s going to be well outside his prime years by the time the Mariners start to seriously contend. And signing a player of that caliber isn’t going to add “prestige” to the team. Winning seasons add prestige. Smart front offices add prestige to an organization. Smart front offices don’t pour buckets of money on a four-win-upgrade player that will bring a team from 72 wins to 76 wins. There’s no benefit to those four extra wins.
Most importantly, by keeping their current farm intact, along with adding younger guys like Perez, Kontos, and Fields, the Mariners make progress in transitioning from an old, bloated team to a youthful, promising one. Sure, Clement and Balentien may not be the faces of the future Mariners but, by giving them a chance at considerable playing time, it allows the Mariners to gauge now whether or not players like Clement, Moore, Balentien, and Reed fit in with that plan instead of stringing them along with teases of whether or not they’ll live up to their potential. It also gives the team a chance to build up trade value in guys like Putz and Bedard for potential deadline deals to further the conversion towards the future. Both should be able to net the team some sort of top-line prospects.
Baby steps, dear friends. Baby steps.
Manocad wrote:The universe is the age it is. We can all agree it's 13 billion years old, and nothing changes. We can all agree it's 6000 years old, and nothing changes. We can all disagree on how old it is, and nothing changes. Some people really need a hobby.
Re: A slightly unorthodox offseason plan
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Ex-hippie
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Re: A slightly unorthodox offseason plan
Basketball Jesus wrote:1. Mariners trade SS Yuniesky Betancourt and 3B Adrian Beltre to the Chicago White Sox for 3B Josh Fields and RP Fernando Hernandez.
I would have liked this based on what I knew, but then I clicked the links that you so graciously provided, and it looks to me like Fields has regressed somewhat this year. Dude's 25 and he can't OPS 800 at the AAA level? He was supposed to have taken over for Crede by now, although obviously Crede is playing much better this year than the broken-down guy he appeared to be last year.
On the plus side, I love the idea of having two players named Josh Fields and two pitchers named F.Hernandez on one team. I promise, there will be wacky hijinks in that clubhouse.
2. Mariners trade SP Jarrod Washburn and cash (70% of Washburn’s 2009 contract - $7MM) to the New York Yankees for SP George Kontos.
I like the concept -- eat some of Washburn's salary so they don't have to give him away -- but that seems like kind of a lot. I don't see Kontos as being much different from what you refer to elsewhere as "organizational flotsam." Teams balk at paying $7m signing bonuses to their high first-round draft picks, so why should the equivalent amount be spent for a prospect like this?
3. Mariners trade C Kenji Johjima and cash ($8MM) to the Houston Astros for UT Geoff Blum
I guess that will work. Although I'm starting to wonder if another team will even accept having to pay $16m for three years of Johjima.
4. Mariners DFA Miguel Batista
The only issue I have is that $9MM is a lot of cash to eat without getting something in return but, let’s face it, you’re not getting anything in return for Batista. You could package Juan Ramirez with him and teams still wouldn’t bite.
Point taken. Or at least not Oswaldo Navarro. Batista can't even make a single appearance without it being a disaster, it seems. So much for being "one of the greatest players in world baseball".
5. Mariners head to arbitration with Erik Bedard
The trade market for him is pretty weak given his injury so there’s no sense in moving him now. Let him play half a year; his trade value’s got nowhere to go but up (I hope).
Yes.
6a. Mariners sign Raul Ibanez to 2-year $12MM contract with club option
I could probably live with this.
6b. Mariners sign Juan Rivera to a 2-year, $4MM contract.
Kind of comparable to my Thames propsal. Speaking of which, I'm ashamed I didn't know this, but Thames is quietly having an awesome year. That rules out my idea, probably. On the flipside, Rivera is having a poor year -- worse than he was in 2007, which in turn was worse than he was in 2006. In other words, he's following a somewhat predictable trajectory at age 30 here. But I guess the money isn't too bad.
7a. Mariners sign SS Adam Everett to a 2-year $5MM contract
7b. Mariners sign SS Alex Cora to a 2-year $4MM contract
Okay, but why both? I thought maybe you were trying for a platoon, but I checked out their three-year splits and see that they're both equally bad against lefties and righties. I guess you're looking at Cora as a pure utility guy?
8. Convert Brandon Morrow back into a RP, slate him as set-up for Putz, groom him for closer.
That ship has sailed, my friend. He's going to be another Joba, just watch. The team should groom Josh Fields -- the one we already have -- for closer. Otherwise the job reverts to Jamie Burke.
9. Sign Oliver Perez to a 3-year $24MM contract
I don't think it's a bad deal. I suspect the team is going to be rather gun-shy about giving $24 million deals to pitchers without superstar track records, but if they've already cleared out two other overpriced pitchers, why not? Living in New York, I hear a lot of people grinding their teeth about Perez; I think they might let him go.
10. Sign Jay Payton to 1-year $2.5MM contract
Payton, who will turn 36 in November, would provide an able platoon in center with Jeremy Reed, taking Reed’s futile attempts against lefties and turning them into productive ABs. (Payton’s career against LHP: .288/.346/.466). He also provides OK depth at all three OF positions. The problem with this contract is that Payton still has delusions of grandeur and thinks he deserves a starting gig, so this deal may not happen. I’ll pretend that this is the best chance Payton has at seeing meaningful ABs and add him to the M’s.
I like this move. Payton has somehow turned from an overrated, toolsy prospect into someone I really like. I can't believe he's almost 36, though.
11. Sign Nomar Garciaparra to a 2-year, $12MM contract with performance incentives.
Not sure I follow the logic of this one. I'll copy one of your later arguments here:
While adding big talent like Adam Dunn, Manny, or Mark Teixeira would make this team better (and, in the case of Teix, address the woeful 1B situation), it’s not going to turn this team into an instant playoff contender. There are far too many other holes in this club. It doesn’t make sense to get into a $100MM bidding war for a player who’s going to be well outside his prime years by the time the Mariners start to seriously contend. And signing a player of that caliber isn’t going to add “prestige” to the team. Winning seasons add prestige. Smart front offices add prestige to an organization. Smart front offices don’t pour buckets of money on a four-win-upgrade player that will bring a team from 72 wins to 76 wins. There’s no benefit to those four extra wins.
I'm not saying I disagree with the latter point, but then why would you spend $6 million per year on Nomar to improve from 72 wins to 74 wins, other than for organizational prestige? Why not just see if LaHair has anything to offer, and hope Dennis Raben is ready by opening day 2009?
Note, when I proposed Dunn at the start of this thread, the premise was that he would be reasonably valued, because people seem to fixate on his strikeouts and low batting average and lack of defense and unclutchness and all that. If the bidding war is in the $100m range, then yes, we should stay out of it.
12. Let the organizational flotsam fight for the last SP spot
Whoever has the best Spring Training wins! No added cost and it allows the team to see what they have with guys like Ryan Feierabend, Ryan Rowland-Smith, R.A. Dickey, George Kontos, and others on the periphery.
Justin Thomas, dammit, Justin Thomas!!1!
All in all, the 25-man ends up looking like this:
....
SS: Adam Everett (or Alex Cora)
...
Bench Middle IF: Tug Hulett
Bench UT: Geoff Blum
Oh, did I get that wrong? I thought you were signing Everett *and* Cora. I'd think you can have them both and screw Blum.
RP: Sean Green (high-leverage innings)
RP: Mark Lowe (low-leverage innings)
RP: R.A. Dickey (long relief/spot starting)
RP: Cesar Jimenez
SU: Brandon Morrow
CL: JJ Putz
Are you forgetting RRS? Jimenez is your only lefty.
Re: A slightly unorthodox offseason plan
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Basketball Jesus
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Re: A slightly unorthodox offseason plan
Regarding Fields: The White Sox have this weird Torrean fetish with veteran grittiness, which is partly the reason why Fields hasn’t been given a proper shot. In truth Fields isn’t a great player; he resembles Crede in his all-or-nothing power approach, which will severely limit his value to the vagaries of BABIP. The reason why I did the deal (aside from pawning off Betancourt) is to give the Mariners a near-ready replacement without having to hope for Triunfel/Martinez/De Jesus to jump four levels in the next year.
I’ll admit that, no more than five minutes after posting it, I thought that you could eliminate Beltre and Fields from the deal and it (i.e. Betancourt for Hernandez) would still be a plus for both sides. Let’s go with that. Hell, we could probably hope for Beltre to be moved at the next deadline.
Regarding Wasburn/Kontos: Don’t look at it so much as the Mariners paying $7MM to get George Kontos, look at is as the Mariners saving $2MM in 2009 and picking up a good prospect in return. Washburn has no future with this team and, while I’ve said that in keeping Silva it isn’t blocking any prospect from getting his due, Silva’s contract makes moving him a bit tougher. Washburn, on the other hand, isn’t in the plans after 2009: Kontos could be. (At worst he makes a great set-up guy.)
Regarding Morrow: It’s my damn team and I’ll do what I want with him! And what I want to do with him is put him in a position to succeed.
Regarding Rivera (or Ibanez) and Nomar: two sides of the same coin, really. Both (all three) players are cheap ways to fill a position without having to dedicate a long-term large contract to the bigger-name free agents. Free agency is a colossal waste of money. These are relatively harmless deals meant at addressing short-term depth until something better comes along when the time is right. Hell, if Raben can prove he’s ready to stay in 2010 (which is a bit more realistic than 2009; it gives him a full season in the minors), Nomar’s only on the hook until that season. And it’s Nomar: he’ll probably spend half his time at DH or on the DL.
As for LaHair: he doesn’t impress me. I’d probably use him as my Quad-A call-up for injuries.
Everett/Cora: it’s an *or* situation, dependent on whether or not Everett would sign a deal like that.
Regarding the pen: I hate modern pen construction. I’d probably go one lefty.
I’ll admit that, no more than five minutes after posting it, I thought that you could eliminate Beltre and Fields from the deal and it (i.e. Betancourt for Hernandez) would still be a plus for both sides. Let’s go with that. Hell, we could probably hope for Beltre to be moved at the next deadline.
Regarding Wasburn/Kontos: Don’t look at it so much as the Mariners paying $7MM to get George Kontos, look at is as the Mariners saving $2MM in 2009 and picking up a good prospect in return. Washburn has no future with this team and, while I’ve said that in keeping Silva it isn’t blocking any prospect from getting his due, Silva’s contract makes moving him a bit tougher. Washburn, on the other hand, isn’t in the plans after 2009: Kontos could be. (At worst he makes a great set-up guy.)
Regarding Morrow: It’s my damn team and I’ll do what I want with him! And what I want to do with him is put him in a position to succeed.
Regarding Rivera (or Ibanez) and Nomar: two sides of the same coin, really. Both (all three) players are cheap ways to fill a position without having to dedicate a long-term large contract to the bigger-name free agents. Free agency is a colossal waste of money. These are relatively harmless deals meant at addressing short-term depth until something better comes along when the time is right. Hell, if Raben can prove he’s ready to stay in 2010 (which is a bit more realistic than 2009; it gives him a full season in the minors), Nomar’s only on the hook until that season. And it’s Nomar: he’ll probably spend half his time at DH or on the DL.
As for LaHair: he doesn’t impress me. I’d probably use him as my Quad-A call-up for injuries.
Everett/Cora: it’s an *or* situation, dependent on whether or not Everett would sign a deal like that.
Regarding the pen: I hate modern pen construction. I’d probably go one lefty.
Manocad wrote:The universe is the age it is. We can all agree it's 13 billion years old, and nothing changes. We can all agree it's 6000 years old, and nothing changes. We can all disagree on how old it is, and nothing changes. Some people really need a hobby.
Re: A slightly unorthodox offseason plan
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BlackMamba
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Re: A slightly unorthodox offseason plan
having perez would be nice (for obvious reasons).
and in all this offseason plans, wiretap says the tigers would be moving ordoñez, can the mariners make a run at him?
and in all this offseason plans, wiretap says the tigers would be moving ordoñez, can the mariners make a run at him?
Re: A slightly unorthodox offseason plan
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TheUrbanZealot
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Re: A slightly unorthodox offseason plan
After perusing this thread, I've found a few items rather questionable. Among them:
- the apparent man love for Adam Dunn.
Please tell me how a career .247 hitter that strikes out 1 out of every 3 at-bats (more than Richie Sexson, who is a career .261 hitter mind you) should be signed to play in a PITCHERS park where power is obviously not a big factor? Dunn is essentially the reincarnate of Sexson, but WORSE. He in no way shape or form deserves a 5 yr 100 million dollar deal just because he can hit 40 home runs. I am very very curious why so many people want him for such a big contract? I'd rather deal with Wlad Balentien who should hit for a similar average and over 30 home runs, with about 1/30th the contract.
- the notion that shoring up our defense by trading for weak-hitting defensive players would help
By all accounts, the Mariners defense is NOT why they are going to lose 100 games this year. The reason the Mariners are going to lose 100 games is because of absolutely inept hitting and a very poor bottom 3 rotation. If anything, we should be trading to shore up our OFFENSE, the problem is there is no one we have on our ML roster outside of Ichiro and Ibanez that is really worth trading for. As far the bottom 3, remember, Batista and Silva have 2 of the worst ERA's (I think Batista actually has the worst) amongst starters in the MLB.
- the notion we can trade overpaid players for anything more than a bottle of Gatorade
We are in a very rough rough ROUGH position. Our main trading chips are all past 30. The positions that we should be underpaying we are overpaying, and the positions we are overpaying we are OVER OVER paying. We have a weak hitting 3rd basemen getting over 10 million a year. We have a singles hitting leadoff hitter who, with all due respect to him and his consistency, is primarily worth the money he is for marketing purposes. We have a backup catcher getting paid 8 million a year! We have an absolutely horrible 4th starter getting paid 12 million a year!!!!! I mean, your 4th starter should be a prospect, or at least a light paid vet, but 12 million on a #4? Not to mention 8-9 million on a #5 in Batista? I mean wow...
The trades I've read on this thread are for the most part not only unrealistic, but I really don't see what they do to regenerate the offense. What''s the point in "slightly" improving defense if you are going to have an even worse offense anyways? What's the point of having Ichiro get on base 35% of the time if you have the 2nd coming of Richie Sexson striking out with him on? I mean this team needs a complete and total makeover, Florida Marlins style.
- the notion that Ibanez will settle a paltry 5 million a year
Ibanez will pull a Jose Guillen so fast you wouldn't know what hit you. There is NO way Ibanez is settling for 5 mill, even at his age. His production has been better in his latter years and he keeps himself up. He's relatively consistent, and there are games where he just absolutely carries the team. He will definitely sign for more than 5 million, closeer to a 10 million per deal. I don't see any incentive for him to sign with the Mariners, either.
I will say this:
- Morrow should be our closer. I don't want to risk his arm as a starter, and we could just pencil him there for the next 10 years, easily.
- I agree that Yuniesky should be replaced, but he isn't as bad as people make him out to be on here
- Jose Lopez I think should stay. He's on pace to get close to 200 hits and we need all of the offense that we can get. It's not like he's a horrid defender anyways, and even if he was, that defense is not having enough of an impact negatively to justify replacing him
- Clement needs to be the full time catcher.
- Balentien needs to start, he can hit 30+ homers a year
- We should not overpay any free agent that hasn't shown a propensity towards consistent ALL around produciton. Meaning- no fluke year players that have 1 good year and then BAM (hello Beltre)...
- the apparent man love for Adam Dunn.
Please tell me how a career .247 hitter that strikes out 1 out of every 3 at-bats (more than Richie Sexson, who is a career .261 hitter mind you) should be signed to play in a PITCHERS park where power is obviously not a big factor? Dunn is essentially the reincarnate of Sexson, but WORSE. He in no way shape or form deserves a 5 yr 100 million dollar deal just because he can hit 40 home runs. I am very very curious why so many people want him for such a big contract? I'd rather deal with Wlad Balentien who should hit for a similar average and over 30 home runs, with about 1/30th the contract.
- the notion that shoring up our defense by trading for weak-hitting defensive players would help
By all accounts, the Mariners defense is NOT why they are going to lose 100 games this year. The reason the Mariners are going to lose 100 games is because of absolutely inept hitting and a very poor bottom 3 rotation. If anything, we should be trading to shore up our OFFENSE, the problem is there is no one we have on our ML roster outside of Ichiro and Ibanez that is really worth trading for. As far the bottom 3, remember, Batista and Silva have 2 of the worst ERA's (I think Batista actually has the worst) amongst starters in the MLB.
- the notion we can trade overpaid players for anything more than a bottle of Gatorade
We are in a very rough rough ROUGH position. Our main trading chips are all past 30. The positions that we should be underpaying we are overpaying, and the positions we are overpaying we are OVER OVER paying. We have a weak hitting 3rd basemen getting over 10 million a year. We have a singles hitting leadoff hitter who, with all due respect to him and his consistency, is primarily worth the money he is for marketing purposes. We have a backup catcher getting paid 8 million a year! We have an absolutely horrible 4th starter getting paid 12 million a year!!!!! I mean, your 4th starter should be a prospect, or at least a light paid vet, but 12 million on a #4? Not to mention 8-9 million on a #5 in Batista? I mean wow...
The trades I've read on this thread are for the most part not only unrealistic, but I really don't see what they do to regenerate the offense. What''s the point in "slightly" improving defense if you are going to have an even worse offense anyways? What's the point of having Ichiro get on base 35% of the time if you have the 2nd coming of Richie Sexson striking out with him on? I mean this team needs a complete and total makeover, Florida Marlins style.
- the notion that Ibanez will settle a paltry 5 million a year
Ibanez will pull a Jose Guillen so fast you wouldn't know what hit you. There is NO way Ibanez is settling for 5 mill, even at his age. His production has been better in his latter years and he keeps himself up. He's relatively consistent, and there are games where he just absolutely carries the team. He will definitely sign for more than 5 million, closeer to a 10 million per deal. I don't see any incentive for him to sign with the Mariners, either.
I will say this:
- Morrow should be our closer. I don't want to risk his arm as a starter, and we could just pencil him there for the next 10 years, easily.
- I agree that Yuniesky should be replaced, but he isn't as bad as people make him out to be on here
- Jose Lopez I think should stay. He's on pace to get close to 200 hits and we need all of the offense that we can get. It's not like he's a horrid defender anyways, and even if he was, that defense is not having enough of an impact negatively to justify replacing him
- Clement needs to be the full time catcher.
- Balentien needs to start, he can hit 30+ homers a year
- We should not overpay any free agent that hasn't shown a propensity towards consistent ALL around produciton. Meaning- no fluke year players that have 1 good year and then BAM (hello Beltre)...
Re: A slightly unorthodox offseason plan
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Basketball Jesus
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Re: A slightly unorthodox offseason plan
TheUrbanZealot wrote:After perusing this thread, I've found a few items rather questionable. Among them:
- the apparent man love for Adam Dunn.
Please tell me how a career .247 hitter that strikes out 1 out of every 3 at-bats (more than Richie Sexson, who is a career .261 hitter mind you) should be signed to play in a PITCHERS park where power is obviously not a big factor? Dunn is essentially the reincarnate of Sexson, but WORSE.
Adam Dunn career: .247/.380/.519
Richie Sexson career: .261/.344/.507
Which of these numbers are most important? (Hint: the ones I bolded are the most important)
Dunn is a much better player than Sexson. He makes less outs, hits for more power, and can actually play passable defense (at an outfield position no less). Yeah, Safeco is less of a hitters’ haven than the GAB but, even then so, having Dunn on this team would be demonstrably better than having Sexson on this team.
He in no way shape or form deserves a 5 yr 100 million dollar deal just because he can hit 40 home runs.
He probably isn’t but free agency is an extremely inefficient way at acquiring talent and, more importantly, baseball is awash with more cash than ever before, meaning $100 million isn’t the same as it was ten years ago.
I am very very curious why so many people want him for such a big contract? I'd rather deal with Wlad Balentien who should hit for a similar average and over 30 home runs, with about 1/30th the contract.
Good point, although I doubt anybody is projecting Balentien to hit thirty any time soon.
- the notion that shoring up our defense by trading for weak-hitting defensive players would help
By all accounts, the Mariners defense is NOT why they are going to lose 100 games this year. The reason the Mariners are going to lose 100 games is because of absolutely inept hitting and a very poor bottom 3 rotation. If anything, we should be trading to shore up our OFFENSE, the problem is there is no one we have on our ML roster outside of Ichiro and Ibanez that is really worth trading for. As far the bottom 3, remember, Batista and Silva have 2 of the worst ERA's (I think Batista actually has the worst) amongst starters in the MLB.
Depending on your tastes, the Mariners rank at, or near, the bottom of every defensive metric out there. While the absolute value of defense is debatable, what isn’t debatable is that the Mariners have two extreme groundballers (Felix, Silva) and two contact-heavy pitchers (Washburn and Batista). They see a large amount of balls in play. And when a team sucks defensively at almost every position – Beltre and Ichiro excluded – defense plays an important factor in their success.
Most of these deals being proposed aren’t defensive-minded, aside from ones centered on replacing Yuni Betancourt, so I don’t really know what you’re talking about. Replacing Betancourt with a similar bat but infinitely better glove does more for this team than trading to “shore up offense”. And it’s SS; unless you think the team can trade for someone like JJ Hardy or Michael Young (which isn’t going to happen), you’re not going to get a significant upgrade at that position.
The trades I've read on this thread are for the most part not only unrealistic, but I really don't see what they do to regenerate the offense. What''s the point in "slightly" improving defense if you are going to have an even worse offense anyways? What's the point of having Ichiro get on base 35% of the time if you have the 2nd coming of Richie Sexson striking out with him on? I mean this team needs a complete and total makeover, Florida Marlins style.
Wow. First of all, exchanging Betancourt for, well, anybody is not a slight improvement. And, as I mentioned before, nobody else has proposed strict-defensive-upgrade trades. Second, strikeouts are irrelevant. Third, this team has already made marked improvements in offense by jettisoning Vidro and Sexson. Fourth, I’m pretty sure Adam Dunn would be improving offense. Fifth, Florida Marlins-style makeovers only happen when you have a good deal of young, talented, cost-controlled players at arb rates. The Mariners have Jeff Clement and Wladimir Balentien. Remember your comment about teams not wanting to take on big contracts for anything other than Gatorade?
- the notion that Ibanez will settle a paltry 5 million a year
Ibanez will pull a Jose Guillen so fast you wouldn't know what hit you. There is NO way Ibanez is settling for 5 mill, even at his age. His production has been better in his latter years and he keeps himself up. He's relatively consistent, and there are games where he just absolutely carries the team. He will definitely sign for more than 5 million, closeer to a 10 million per deal. I don't see any incentive for him to sign with the Mariners, either.
I will bet that no team would be willing to dole out $10 million for a 35-year-old hitter that can only play DH effectively.
- I agree that Yuniesky should be replaced, but he isn't as bad as people make him out to be on here
He’s terrible. You will be hard-pressed to find anybody that will agree with you on this point.
- Balentien needs to start, he can hit 30+ homers a year
He can?
Manocad wrote:The universe is the age it is. We can all agree it's 13 billion years old, and nothing changes. We can all agree it's 6000 years old, and nothing changes. We can all disagree on how old it is, and nothing changes. Some people really need a hobby.
Re: A slightly unorthodox offseason plan
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Sweezo
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Re: A slightly unorthodox offseason plan
Florida Marlins style makeover? What? I thought we were but one Bedard away from contending? Don't the Marlins actually value young talent and not trade away budding young stars for overpriced vets?
Re: A slightly unorthodox offseason plan
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Ex-hippie
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Re: A slightly unorthodox offseason plan
TheUrbanZealot wrote:
- the apparent man love for Adam Dunn.
Please tell me how a career .247 hitter that strikes out 1 out of every 3 at-bats (more than Richie Sexson, who is a career .261 hitter mind you) should be signed to play in a PITCHERS park where power is obviously not a big factor? Dunn is essentially the reincarnate of Sexson, but WORSE.
This is a conversation we've had with you about 2,391 times, and you have yet to show any indication that you can be reasoned with on this point. Get into the 21st century and get over your silly fascination with batting average.
By all accounts, the Mariners defense is NOT why they are going to lose 100 games this year. The reason the Mariners are going to lose 100 games is because of absolutely inept hitting and a very poor bottom 3 rotation.
Again: you're not listening. By all accounts, the defense is a BIG reason why they are going to lose 100 games this year, because it is a BIG reason why Silva and Washburn are struggling. This is demonstrable and measurable. Have an open minde, please.
- the notion we can trade overpaid players for anything more than a bottle of Gatorade
There isn't a single trade in this thread in which a player with a true albatross contract is proposed to be traded for anything more than that, unless the team picks up a huge piece of the player's salary. This is business 101.
We are in a very rough rough ROUGH position. Our main trading chips are all past 30. The positions that we should be underpaying we are overpaying, and the positions we are overpaying we are OVER OVER paying. We have a weak hitting 3rd basemen getting over 10 million a year.
No, we have a solid hitting third baseman who plays Gold Glove caliber defense with an expiring contract worth over $10 million a year. I don't know why you don't understand this.
- the notion that Ibanez will settle a paltry 5 million a year
Sure, there's no reason to believe Ibanez will settle for $5 million a year in Seattle... well, other than those $5 million per year contract he repeatedly signs, year after year, which were bargains then but approximately his market value now.
Ibanez will pull a Jose Guillen so fast you wouldn't know what hit you. There is NO way Ibanez is settling for 5 mill, even at his age. His production has been better in his latter years and he keeps himself up.
No, it has not. You can look this stuff up, you know.
He's relatively consistent, and there are games where he just absolutely carries the team. He will definitely sign for more than 5 million, closeer to a 10 million per deal. I don't see any incentive for him to sign with the Mariners, either.
Unlike those last several contracts in a row he's signed with the M's.
- I agree that Yuniesky should be replaced, but he isn't as bad as people make him out to be on here
Wrong yet again. He is that bad. He would be the worst player in the Major Leagues this year, were it not for Andruw Jones.
- Jose Lopez I think should stay.
...
- Clement needs to be the full time catcher.
LADIES AND GENTLEMEN, MARK THIS DAY ON YOUR CALENDARS! URBAN ZEALOT WAS RIGHT ABOUT SOMETHING!
Urban Zealot, you know why people have such issues with you on these forums and accuse you of trolling? It's not just your contrarian nature. We're all free to disagree. It's partly because of what appears to be a mocking, attacking nature. That's not going to win you many friends. But mainly it's because you are completely and utterly wrong, demonstrating a complete failure in reasoning, a complete lack of understanding about how sports and business work. You do this so consistently, it's amazing. You have to make some kind of special effort to be wrong such a high percentage of the time. And you do it while not showing any indication that your thinking has progressed in any meaningful way -- not only being wrong, but stubbornly being wrong in the exact same ways, time and again. In two months you'll be posting in some other thread criticizing the low batting average of Dunn or some other hitter having a 40-homer, 100-walk season, and once again you'll be wrong.