ozwizard8 wrote:This year West is strong and chaotic for seeding. Mavs would not miss playoffs and play-ins like last year, but we still don't know if we can get out of play-ins and take 5th, 6th seed.
This topic is for discussing Western Conference playoff matchups for 1st round, 2nd round or WCF.
Matchups I like for playoffs:
- Wolves: Luka-Kyrie with Maxi occasionally playing at 5, can take Gobert out. Conley is a small guard to be abused by Luka or Kyrie. Edwards is not a great scorer, not a good shooter. If KAT is healthy, it can take 6-7 games but if he's not 100%, I think Mavs can beat Wolves 4-1.
- Kings: This is a much more of a regular-season team than a playoff team. It wouldn't be easy to stop them and I expect to lose two game out of first four games. However, as we adjust in the series and Luka-Kidd take some of other teams rotation players out, it should be for Mavs to win. 4-2
- Pelicans: I mean we lost some games to them this season but they were mostly before we had Gafford-Lively together. Maxi was coming out from injury at the time, and now he is better defensively. Both Zion and JV can be taken advantage of in playoff time by Luka and Kyrie. PJ can make sure Ingram doesn't go crazy, hold him to 20 ppg. Luka can win this series as he'd dominate the clutch moments. 4-1
- Thunder: I am really not amazed by OKC Thunder this season. I watched their game live as well. When things go wrong, they dont seem to have much players to put out a character. They mostly rely on coach's plays and refs whistles to keep them in the game. SGA will probably keep getting calls but I am not sure for the rotation players. Some of them will evade playoffs. Luka can bully ball even against their big men. 4-2.
Matchups I do not like:
- Clippers: This is an obvious one as they have f'in too many great forwards. Kawhi-PG can easily dominate PJ-Green. Harden can definitely match Kyrie's offensive production and even more. We have Luka so we can win against a healthy LA Clippers but it will be taxing on our players. Even against much younger Luka team, we got 4-2, 4-3 losses which were close. Now with Gafford and Lively, I'd put Mavs as the favorite to win 4-3. But I'd rather see banged-up Clippers in semifinals or WCF. Because in other years, they consumed their health/energy against us and they lost in the next rounds due to injuries.
- Suns: Mavs can win but its hard to bet against KD team especially in the first round. If he's healthy, they have Booker-Beal to abuse our perimeter issues, abuse Kyrie and tire Luka. Bucks won a championship thanks to KD's foot was on the line. So its hard to play against him. Normally, I'd say Nurkic is an easy target but having KD around lurking for blocks, or him playing at 5 for clutch minutes would be challenging. Luckily, we wouldn't see them in first round. However, we may play a play-in game which would be a coin toss. 4-3 in playoffs.
- Nuggets: We just won a game against Jokic but I cant see us winning 4 games in a series against a healthy and focused Denver. Kidd is not a bad coach for playoff adjustments, but our team doesn't have a defensive identity. We're too brand new. Gordon-MPJ have been playing with Joker for many years. For last 6-7 years playoffs, Murray has been more clutch than almost anyone in the league when he is healthy. KCP-MPJ-Gordon and Brown-Watson. They'll gear up on defense in playoffs and they're f'in disciplined to execute on both sides for playoffs. 2-4
+ Wolves, Kings, Thunder, Pelicans
- Denver, Clippers, Suns, GSW
Bonus: A play-in game against GSW or LAL would be dangerous. Both teams are rating-machines and they can get heavily favorable calls in playoffs. Especially GSW! Last year they played 8v5 against Kings. When refs let Draymond pull, push, and hit on the wrist of other players then GSW suddenly becomes a good playoff team with solid defense. And if its a close game Curry can definitely hit a winner. It'd be 50%-50%. So please avoid play-ins!!
Spot on analysis. It is really all about match up. TWolves were built to beat Nuggets, but matched not very well with Mavs.
Clippers with a healthy Kawhi would have been the biggest trouble for Mavs. Zubac was the best center to give Mavs troubles in the playoffs; Thunders really don't have a clear and consistent second to stand next to SGA, yet; TWolves Gobert's role is significantly reduced by Mavs, Edwards and Towns have been contained quite well, and their best players have been McDaniels and Reid in the last two games.