What should the Cardinals do this winter?

[mizzoupacers]

Wow, this winter's list of free agents is really uninspiring.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2007/03/2008_mlb_free_a.html

[mizzoupacers]

Here's an interesting piece on Adam Kennedy from vivaelbirdos.com (which is a great site) titled "Can Kennedy Bounce Back?"

http://www.vivaelbirdos.com/story/2007/9/25/927/01337

The answer, based on comparisons to somewhat similar players who had somewhat similar seasons at roughly the same age as Kennedy, is "Yes."

It would sure be nice if Kennedy could be halfway decent for us for the remainder of his contract, since we are paying him starter's money for two more years.

If Kennedy can be decent, maybe we put Ryan at shortstop next year, let Eckstein go, and have a little more money with which to chase starting pitchers for 2008.

[bigboy1234]

The thing is do you think LaRussa wants Ryan at SS everyday? This of course would interfere with LaRussa's man-crush on Miles too.

And of course Kennedy can make a comeback, he had a .699 PrOPS and a .240 BABIP this season which of course means he was extremely unlucky. I expect him anywhere from a .700-.750 OPS like he had been doing with the Angels with his very good defense next season.

And regarding the chasing starting pitchers, to tell you truth the only free agent pitchers I even want to think about are Curt Schilling and league minimum money pitchers. Guys that have been mentioned like Livan Hernandez amongst others are very bad ideas in my opinion. I could also see us going after Matt Clement knowing the Cardinals past, but would hope he only gets a Kip Wells-esque deal or worse. 2008-2009 free agency pitchers can potentially be a lot better than this years crop, which of course doesn't help us now but what are you going to do.

[mizzoupacers]

Yeah, I don't see a free-agent pitcher I really want to give Eckstein's salary to either.

Maybe next summer after we are done watching Kyle Russell hit a zillion home runs as a junior for the Texas Longhorns, we can use the money to sign the hi-grade pitching prospect that no one else wants to pony up for.

[mizzoupacers]

OK, following up on last night's game, what do you think the chances are that Pineiro will be in the Cardinals' rotation next year?

I haven't been able to get a clear picture of Pineiro's contract status. There's a team option, there's a player option, he's a free agent, I've read all of those things. What's the real story, does anyone know?

I think Pineiro is one of our more promising reclamation projects and wouldn't mind keeping him, so long as the price is reasonable--I think the Cardinals could afford to give him three years at $5-6 million a year if that's what it takes. It isn't like there's much else out there in terms of starting pitching.

Also, vivaelbirdos.com is touting the Giants as a good trade partner this winter--they need young position players and have pitchers to offer for them.

http://www.vivaelbirdos.com/story/2007/9/27/92627/3992

I wouldn't mind offering up Duncan, or Brendan Ryan--we aren't going anywhere unless the pitching improves. I'm surprised, though, that Ankiel is seen as more disposable than Duncan. I just don't agree. Duncan is more proven, but he is what he is--a productive hitter who probably should be playing first base or DH. Ankiel looks like a much better outfielder to me, especially with his arm, and he has more upside as a hitter too. Plus Duncan probably has more trade value than Ankiel right now.

[bigboy1234]

I expect Pineiro to be in the rotation next year, although I think it may be a mistake thinking about how much we'll give him. It's a mutual option.

I have no problem with trading Duncan, but to the Giants is where the problem begins. The Giants have no one I want for a deal that would include Duncan other than Lincecum and Cain, and those two aren't going anywhere. I think Lowry is extemely overrated and lucky his ERA is under 4, as it should be closer to 5, and we already have that, no need to trade Duncan for him. Jon Sanchez is decent but I'm really just not sold on him, as he has terrible control.

I'd much prefer trade Duncan to the Tigers in a bigger deal in which we get a potential ace in Bonderman.

[mizzoupacers]

It's official: the Cardinals will have the 13th pick in next summer's draft. That's the reward for a 78-84 season.

This winter the Cardinals are supposedly in the market for one to two top-of-the-rotation type starting pitchers, and "another big bat." And allegedly the front office will be willing to increase the payroll by perhaps as much as $10-15 million.

We HAVE to upgrade the pitching rotation, but there's not much out there in free agency that helps us do that, so I'm on board with going after someone like Bonderman--hopefully some combination of two or three guys from among Duncan/Anderson/Franklin/Ryan/Reyes/other prospects would be enough. That's the main thing I'm hoping for this winter.

But if we can't get the pitchers this winter, some hitters that I've heard mentioned include Aaron Rowan, Miguel Tejada, and Edgar Renteria.

Rowan is a free agent and maybe makes some sense, particularly if we then turn around and trade Duncan. We put Rowan in center, we let Edmonds and Ludwick split time in left next year (with Edmonds also giving Rowan some days off in center), and when Rasmus comes up we ease him in as a left fielder. That wouldn't be bad at all. We'd have superb outfield defense, and pretty good hitting as well.

Renteria makes some sense too. He'd certainly be an upgrade at shortstop. Problems, though, are that he'd be in the last year of his contract, and that I'm not sure he really qualifies as a "big bat" (although he is a plus hitter for a shortstop).

Tejada's the one I'm most intrigued by. He's 31, he didn't have a very good year, and there's been talk that he is slipping. And he has a humongous salary. But he had been an iron man until 2007, he's definitely a "big bat," and it's possible that better health and just getting off the going-nowhere Orioles could jump-start him again.

There is some risk that in Tejada we would be getting the shortstop version of Rolen. But if the Cardinals are willing to increase the payroll, and if they can't land any good pitching this winter, then I would not mind a trade for Tejada. The Orioles would probably love to dump his contract and might be pretty happy to move him for some young players like Duncan/Ryan/Anderson/Reyes (pick three).

[bigboy1234]

I have no problem with Rowand, BUT, you know theres always a but, I think he was somewhat playing for the money this season, aka over his head. although in 2004 he also had a good season, the 2005 and 2006 seasons in between is what scares me into thinking he's really no more than a .760 OPS guy. I also think Rowand gets somewhat overrated because his all out hustle play (ala Eckstein) but he in 2005 he did have a very very nice defensive season. I guess I'm just saying I would like to see more consistancy out of someone who I think will get at least 10M per year and at least 5 years. I also really don't want to spend any money on an outfielder considering we have the savior Rasmus coming up who should be able to play the outfield by himself.

Miguel Tejada is a very interesting option but to tell you the truth I think the Orioles are going to want way too much for him, as they have in the past.

Renteria is a good choice well because Atlanta will be trying to trade him becuase of Yunel Escobar and even Brent Lillibridge. They would also be trading high on him though as I don't think he is really a guy who will give you a OPS higher than .800 although he did this season. On Renteria kind of like Tejada it will all be up to how much the team wants for them, but I do think the Braves will be a lot more willing to trade Renteria than the Orioles will Tejada.

[chatard5]

Any chance at A-Rod? What about Andruw to replace Edmonds as an excellent defensive CF?

[bigboy1234]

I seriously doubt the Cards give out a 200M+ contract to A-Rod or a 100M+ contract to Andruw.

Andruw really hasn't been the same defensive player since 2003. He really isn't the top defensive CF anymore.

And the Cards have Rasmus who should be ready by the end of June to take over CF, and he is also a very nice CF, so they really already have his replacement.

Edit-Jones is also very inconsistant with the bat, like Rowand, but Jones for some reason didn't hit in his walk year. But he was a pretty good hitter in 2005 and 2006.

[mizzoupacers]

First personnel move of the off-season has been made: the Cardinals picked up the 2008 team option for Isringhausen.

No-brainer.

[mizzoupacers]

Springer re-signed, for an undisclosed amount but guessed to be around $2.5 million for next year.

link

Me likey.


EDIT: OK now they are saying $3.5 million. Oh well, it's just for one year.

[mizzoupacers]

If the rumors are true that he would be interested in coming to St. Louis, and if he could be signed to a one-year deal, and if DeWitt is really serious about increasing the payroll next year, then I'd like to see the Cardinals bring in Tom Glavine.

I know, that's a lot of ifs.

And yes, Glavine is not exactly in his prime any more. These days he is pretty much a league-average pitcher.

But he is a league-average pitcher who will pitch 200 innings next year, because that's just what he does. And he'll help the rest of the pitching staff in other ways as well just by being in the clubhouse and sitting on the bench between starts, because he's Tom Freaking Glavine.

Sure, I'd rather trade Skip Schumaker for Johan Santana, but that isn't going to happen. Bringing in Glavine would not be a "championship move."
It would, however, go a long way toward stabilizing our really shaky rotation, and, if it's a one-year deal, without any cost to the development of our minor-league/young pitching prospects. If our rotation could only be stable and average next year, as opposed to how unstable and crappy it was this year, then I honestly think that could be enough to give us a shot at winning the NL Central, pending what the other teams do this winter.

I Want Tom.

[greenbeans]

how about we(red sox) give you half our revamped farm system for pujols???

[bigboy1234]

how about we(red sox) give you half our revamped farm system for pujols???

Yeah, as much as I like Buchholz, I don't see it happening. Albert is the Cardinals.

[bigboy1234]

And I'm not a big Glavine guy, but then again I'm not big on any of the free agent pitchers. I'd rather waste the money on Prior, but I understand why you like Glavine.

[mizzoupacers]

Well so much for Glavine, he just signed with the Braves for 1 year, $8 million. I wish the Cardinals could have gotten him for that, but I figured all along that the Braves had the inside track on him.

I never thought we had a realistic shot at all at Schilling, and I can't see any free-agent pitchers I think we're going to go after other than maybe someone who would come cheap. Also, I'd give it less than 50-50 that we're going to trade Duncan or Ankiel for a pitcher, which pretty much means I think it is unlikely the Cardinals are going to make a trade this winter for any starting pitcher who is any good.

God, I hope Mulder is healthy by April. But I don't expect much from him at this point.

We're probably going to have a rotation of Wainwright, Pineiro, Looper, cheap free agent TBD, and then maybe Wellemeyer as the fifth starter (or we might even give Reyes one more chance).



But I do think the Cardinals will have a lot more options going into 2009. Maybe then we will finally have a decent rotation again.

[bigboy1234]

Yay, Jason LaRue.

/sarcasm

[mizzoupacers]

LaRue is going to make us forget all about...um, whoever our backup catcher was this last season.