GT: Jays @ Athletics / Sept 4-6

[I_Like_Dirt]

Vladdy had a 166 wRC+ in 2021 and 132 in 2022. That's one elite season, and one very good hitting season. He's well off that mark this year. Absolutely nothing in his hitting profile suggested that he should decline as much as he did this year.

Kirk was at 129 last year in 541 PAs. It could have been an outlier season, but the peripherals didn't suggest that.

They're also both young so productive seasons are more likely to be indicative of "breaking out" than to be outliers.

My point wasn't really about whether it was obvious at the time or not, just that with thr benefit of hindsight it absolutely should be. And the idea of a breakout isn't that players will then continue to breakout but that they will either maintain it with a superior work ethic or see a decline of some sort from there. Unless the argument was that Vlad's 2021 season was the true breakout rather than the rest of his games, or Kirk's 9 games in 2020 were the same, then we had a good idea what to expect.

The reality is that people were actually expecting further improvement beyond what Kirk and Vlad showed in 2022 rather than a bit of a pullback from there. It's extremely rare to see that kind of thing, particularly from guys who obviously struggle with conditioning. Bo isn't breaking out further this season; he's just maintaining.

Also, I feel like Kirk does have a bit more defense than Vlad here because he brings a lot more defensive value. His defense this year has been more valuable than ever and that offsets his hitting in my view. He looks like a similar level talent to Jansen, though slightly worse overall. That's still a good player that any team would want on the roster. Just not a star. Vlad is the guy who I worry about. What he's doing this season is replaceable. And even if he surprises and breaks out we're talking a couple seasons before his decline likely hits as he isn't going to maintain his conditioning for it - that's just not who he is.

[Harry Palmer]

i'll admit i would have likened to trade Kirk first since we had 3 catchers and Moreno on the cusp of being an MLB every day player.

it could lessen the damage if Varsho wins multiple gold gloves as a Jay.

My idea was trade Jansen, let Moreno do most of the catching, Kirk DH but catch once or twice a week.

Jansen probably had the least trade value probably. but here we are.

I think it would have been ~ Kirk, less potential upside though I think people generally thought Kirk was maxing as a hitter, but also less odds of a fluke. Either way Moreno would have been the last I’d trade, and certainly not for what we got. I kinda liked Gurriel but didn’t care as much. To me you trade one of the best prospects in baseball at a value position, you get more then Varsho.

[Mehar]

I wanted to keep Moreno for his 6 years of team control left. I thought coming off his All-star berth, the value of Kirk would have never been higher and I would have dealt him last off-season (he would have fetched a lot more than Jansen last off-season). Jansen is going to be a free agent after next year. So, they cannot afford to lose Jansen now, and hopefully they can work out a contract extension with Jansen.

However, to trade the best Catching Prospect in MLB, you had to get better value than Varsho who hit .235 with Arizona last year and had been a mediocre hitter for Arizona in 3 seasons. Varsho does have 3 years of team control left, and is a solid defender. So hopefully with a new hitting coach and making some adjustments in the off-season, he will be much better in 2024. All year besides the first week of the season, Varsho has been one of the worst hitting Starting Position Players in MLB.

[Asianiac_24]

Moreno was a potential Ivan Rodriguez level catcher prospect. You don’t trade that for a guy like Varsho. Premium players should be coming back for that (aka Trout, Ohtani, etc)