2022 MLB Draft thread, July 17- 19 - Jays select HS LHSP Brandon Barriera 23rd overall

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Our 8th rounder is older than Vlad, heh.

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Our 8th rounder is older than Vlad, heh.

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Mr Law approves

• I also like the Blue Jays’ draft quite a bit, even though they took a high school arm in the first round — which historical data does not support — because 1) they did take a really, really good high school arm and 2) they backed it up with three solid position players who have a chance to stay up the middle and have reasonable floors.

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Mr Law approves

• I also like the Blue Jays’ draft quite a bit, even though they took a high school arm in the first round — which historical data does not support — because 1) they did take a really, really good high school arm and 2) they backed it up with three solid position players who have a chance to stay up the middle and have reasonable floors.

The problem with using historical data is that teams also use historical data, and revise their choices accordingly, which means that the value proposition is ever-shifting. HS players have at times in the past been severely overvalued; they have also, in other eras, become undervalued as the pendulum swung. A HS pitcher wasn't drafted until 15th this year, which is quite atypical historically, and also means that the talent available in the back half of the first round is beyond that of your typical HS pitcher in that range in years gone by.

Much of this is based on Tom Verducci's work, and his basic thesis -- that HS pitchers are under such pressure to max out velo at an early age in order to get drafted high, which leads to higher rates of injuries -- makes sense to me. However, I don't think that pressure is limited to HS pitching at this point, particularly as teams place greater and greater value on things (K rate, spin rate) that are correlated with velocity. The college pitching ranks this year got decimated by injuries.

There's also potentially a second element, though it'll be a few years before we know. A few teams, the Jays reportedly included, are starting to lean into biometrics to try to clean up pitcher deliveries and maximize performance. If there's anything to it (and it's difficult to say without years of data), then you'd have an incentive to get an arm into your system as early as possible, hopefully before damage is done.

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Just following up on the previous post, out of my own curiosity. The top five rookie starters by fWAR in the past five seasons, by route to the bigs:

2017:

Jordan Montgomery (4yr) - 4th round
Trevor Williams (4yr) - 2nd round
German Marquez (IFA)
Kyle Freeland (4yr) - 1st round
Luis Castillo (IFA)

2018:

Walker Buehler (4yr college) - 1st round
Shane Bieber (4yr) - 4th round
Brad Keller (HS) - 1st round
Jack Flaherty (HS) - 1st round
Dereck Rodriguez (HS) - 6th round (he didn't reach the majors until being granted MiLB free agency, and his rookie season was a mirage)

2019:

Mike Soroka (HS) - 1st round
John Means (4yr) - 11th round
Spencer Turnbull (4yr) - 2nd round
Chris Paddack (HS) - 8th round
Sandy Alcantara (IFA)

2020:

Tony Gonsolin (4yr) - 9th round
Justus Sheffield (HS) - 1st round
Brady Singer (4yr) - 1st round
Sixto Sanchez (IFA)
Randy Dobnak (undrafted)

2021:

Trevor Rogers (HS) - 1st round
Luis Garcia (IFA)
Shane McClanahan (4yr) - 1st round
Logan Gilbert (4yr) - 1st round
Tanner Houck (4yr) - 1st round


So, of 25 players, you have: 12 drafted from college. 7 from high school. 5 international free agents. 1 undrafted. So you basically have a 1:1 ratio of guys who went to college versus those who reached pro ball from HS/IFA.

Of the 19 players drafted, 11 were first rounders, including 5/7 high schoolers. I'm actually a bit surprised by how high that is.


Obviously, rookie performance isn't the be-all, end-all, and a depressing number of the above haven't amounted to much thereafter. You'd need to do a longitudinal study, but the problem is that it's hard to do that if the thesis is that teams have begun shying away from HS pitching. And I believe there is truth to that: this is the third draft in four years where a HS pitcher wasn't taken until 15 or later, when they used to comprise a significant portion of the top of the draft.

[Parataxis]

Obviously, rookie performance isn't the be-all, end-all, and a depressing number of the above haven't amounted to much thereafter. You'd need to do a longitudinal study, but the problem is that it's hard to do that if the thesis is that teams have begun shying away from HS pitching. And I believe there is truth to that: this is the third draft in four years where a HS pitcher wasn't taken until 15 or later, when they used to comprise a significant portion of the top of the draft.

How much of the move away from HS pitchers do you think is because of the quality/projectability of them, and how much do you think is because of the risk of them not signing and going to college instead?

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Obviously, rookie performance isn't the be-all, end-all, and a depressing number of the above haven't amounted to much thereafter. You'd need to do a longitudinal study, but the problem is that it's hard to do that if the thesis is that teams have begun shying away from HS pitching. And I believe there is truth to that: this is the third draft in four years where a HS pitcher wasn't taken until 15 or later, when they used to comprise a significant portion of the top of the draft.

How much of the move away from HS pitchers do you think is because of the quality/projectability of them, and how much do you think is because of the risk of them not signing and going to college instead?

I'd say probably 80% injury/productivity risk, 20% signability. Maybe even higher on injury/productivity. No question that HS kids have more leverage, but they've had that leverage for quite some time, and the top end of the draft used to be littered with them regardless.

Now, I do think that there's a good argument in favour of not burning a top five, even top 10 pick on anything less than an otherworldly HS pitcher. The track record of HS pitchers taken in the top ten from 2010 on is pretty brutal. But pitchers in general are so damned fragile that I certainly wouldn't turn down a kid like Barriera in the lower third of the first round, where he's a much better value proposition, especially when most of the college pitchers available in that range have had arm issues.

[PowerPlant1]

It was nice to see the jays go for it in this draft with the 4 good picks in round 1. That being said, was wondering what thoughts people have on that strategy vs drafting at slot to have more money for later rounds to procure a potentially deeper pool rather than somewhat wasting picks on older guys.

I think about this because the jays seemingly have not had the greatest track record of developing relief pitching which indicates a lack of depth in the minors. not that who they picked in rounds 4 and beyond are a guaranteed complete bust but was just wondering about the concern of sacrificing a potentially deeper talent pool for 4 high end prospects.

[Schad]

It was nice to see the jays go for it in this draft with the 4 good picks in round 1. That being said, was wondering what thoughts people have on that strategy vs drafting at slot to have more money for later rounds to procure a potentially deeper pool rather than somewhat wasting picks on older guys.

I think about this because the jays seemingly have not had the greatest track record of developing relief pitching which indicates a lack of depth in the minors. not that who they picked in rounds 4 and beyond are a guaranteed complete bust but was just wondering about the concern of sacrificing a potentially deeper talent pool for 4 high end prospects.

I'm totally fine with it, particularly because if you're going to draft senior signs at any position, it should be fringy starters/relievers, because they do make the majors here and there. Drafting in general is an inexact science, but finding good relievers is tantamount to sorcery.

In 2013, we took Kendall Graveman in the 8th round, and gave him a whopping $5,000 in bonus money. He was a middling starter, became an elite reliever. That same year, we gave Tim Mayza the max (without sapping your bonus pool) of $100,000 in the 12th round.

In 2014, we took Jordan Romano (a college closer) in the 10th round, and gave him $25,000 to save money for a bunch of guys who unfortunately didn't make it. After a flirtation with using him as a starter, we moved him back to the 'pen, and he's now an All-Star closer.

The cheapo guys have fared better than the (very few) relievers we actually spent money on. Zach Jackson was taken in the 3rd round and given a below-slot (but still substantial) $275,000 to free up money for Bichette, with the expectation that he'd be a fast-to-the-majors reliever. Never harnessed his command, and only just made the majors at 27, for the A's (and still can't throw strikes consistently).


There really isn't an rhyme or reason to developing relievers. In fact, most teams just don't develop relievers. They end up with relievers when they give up on them as starters, or have a preternatural gift for finding them on the scrap heap (like the Rays). I'd be surprised if there were more than a couple teams with 3+ relievers who were developed in their system, and were actually relievers from even AA on.

[Parataxis]

Honestly, the whole idea of drafting kids as relievers surprises me. I'd assumed that most relievers were starters who couldn't quite get that 4th pitch down, and so then focused on relief once they'd failed out of starting.

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Honestly, the whole idea of drafting kids as relievers surprises me. I'd assumed that most relievers were starters who couldn't quite get that 4th pitch down, and so then focused on relief once they'd failed out of starting.

Pretty much. Drafting college relievers with high picks was a fad for a while (mostly because, IIRC, the A's drafted Huston Street high because they had no money, and he worked out), but the value was atrocious. Josh Fields and Ryan Perry went in the first round in 2008 as sure-thing, fast-to-the-bigs relievers and neither amounted to anything of significance. Drew Storen was drafted 10th in 2009 (to save money for Strasburg) and had a decent career but was also done by 27.

Perfect Game wrote this up many moons ago, and at that time, more closers were drafted as position players than were drafted as relievers:

https://www.perfectgame.org/articles/View.aspx?article=1153

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Jays swing for the fences in MLB draft. It just might pay off | The Star

“We acquired three different types of hitters,” Farrell said. “Josh, very much contact oriented: low walk, low strikeout. Tucker, we believe, has some power potential, and Cade is obviously a good hitter in his own right. We’re excited about all three.”

High-school players are risky. They’re notoriously difficult to project, and yet teams that identify the right ones often tap into more upside than their college targets. There are home runs up for grabs; teams just can’t be afraid to swing and miss.

Those players also tend to be difficult to sign because of college commitments. The Jays went through that when first rounder Tyler Beede chose school over going pro in 2011. Two years later, Phil Bickford did the same thing.

That’s not expected to be an issue this time, with deals likely worked out in advance. Barriera and Toman have already talked about their eagerness to get started, and the Jays seem confident about closing the deals.

“We feel like we’re in a good place ... and will continue our discussions,” Farrell said. “We don’t foresee much difficulty in getting things done.”

Players picked lower than expected often still get paid as if they were taken much higher. Toman figures to get well above the $847,000 (U.S.) recommended bonus assigned to his pick, and Barriera might be able to do better than $3.08 million.

To explain how the Jays can afford to do that and remain under their $8.3-million soft cap, one only needs to look at how they handled day two.

They went off the board with almost every pick in rounds three through 10, with college outfielder Alan Roden the only one to crack MLB Pipeline’s top 250.

By signing players to below-slot deals in the later rounds, they can afford to pay their higher picks even more. In a year when the Jays had two additional picks on day one, that seems to make a whole lot of sense.

Sustained success is hard to come by in the big leagues. With their promising core, the Jays figure to contend for the next few years. Success beyond that will come down to how their scouting department performs during weeks like this.

The draft might not make for must-see TV like it does in a lot of other sports, but for the Jays it’s every bit as crucial to their future as what has been taking place on the field throughout 2022. Based on the reviews, they seem to have done quite well.

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IF/RHP Ryan McCarty has signed as an undrafted free agent with the Toronto Blue Jays.

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